🐶 BIG Nick Chubb News
This is a loaded sports weekend...
Can we please move the NFL Draft up a week? Asking for a friend…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
Nick Chubb restructures his contract with the Browns
Washington is hosting three of the draft's top-four QBs next week
NFL Draft Bold Predictions: HOW many WRs in Round 1!?
It’s 4/12. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Rather big news broke in the RB world Thursday morning.
The #Browns and star RB Nick Chubb have agreed on a reworked contract for 2024 to lower his base of $11.775M, sources tell me and @TomPelissero, with a chance to earn it back in incentives.
Chubb is working his way back from a serious knee injury, but isn’t going anywhere.
A rumored cap casualty following 2023’s season-ending knee injury, Chubb is now fully expected to once again work as the Browns’ featured back in 2024…
…once he’s healthy.
Chubb underwent one surgery to repair his MCL and meniscus in September and another to fix his ACL in November. Sam Sherman’s excellent PUP-candidate breakdown over at Establish The Run featured Dr. Edwin Porras stating that 10 months may be the minimum return-to-play timeline for Chubb’s specific injury, as opposed to nine months for a clean tear.
While there is some hope for a “full recovery” by Week 1, this injury could be a true issue for Chubb in the long term, even if he does manage to get back to looking like 90% of his usual baller self in 2024.
That said: Many RBs would LOVE to simply be 90% as good as Chubb; just realize this could be problematic to his fantasy upside, considering the Browns haven’t exactly handed him the world’s most fantasy-friendly role over the years:
2022: RB18 in expected PPR points per game, RB8 in real PPR points per game
2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
2020: RB28 expected, RB9 real
The No. 1 RB in both missed tackles forced (0.25) and yards after contact per carry (3.9): Chubb has made a living creating something out of nothing over the years — but at least this potential performance falloff is MORE than baked into his present RB27 (pick 93.7) ADP over at Underdog Fantasy.
Zero/hero-RB builders should absolutely look to invest in Chubb at anything close to his price; he's currently going after the top-46 WRs, top-11 TEs and top-10 QBs are already off the board. Here’s to hoping one of the best RBs of his generation can get back to partying in the end zone with the Dawg Pound like old times again in 2024 and beyond.
Speaking of partying…
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⚔️ Who is the real rookie WR1? Ian breaks down a battle for the ages.
🤣 Another great Jason Kelce retirement vid. The man is living his best life.
📺 Who would be the perfect WR for the Bills? Answers to all of your landing spot questions.
🤠 There were a handful of free-agent signings yesterday. The Cowboys really are all-in (ha).
⛳ Need an update on the Masters? Bravo.
😮 The Commanders are hosting HOW many QBs? Would be pretty funny if they hadn’t decided yet.
💸 Highest player cap hits in 2024. You can probably guess No. 1.
📋 Steve Smith’s top-five incoming WRs. Buckeyes fans might want to sit this one out.
🍿 Very cool new Underdog NFL show with Colt Mccoy and more. Get your popcorn ready.
🪦 OJ Simpson passed away on Thursday. His family’s statement.
The NFL Draft is almost here, so Pete cooked up some bold predictions. Take it away…
No one wants to be wrong.
No one wants to look stupid.
But fortune favors the bold, or so I’m told.
That’s why today I’m grabbing my flame-thrower and firing off some hot takes for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Here are 2 BOLD PREDICTIONS that WILL happen in just a few short weeks…
🏈 8 WRs go in Round 1 and Xavier Worthy goes Top 20
If there’s one thing that everyone seems to agree on with this 2024 NFL Draft is that it’s one of the best WR classes we’ve seen in a long, long time. Not only are there three elite prospects who project to go in the top 10 overall picks –Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze – but there are another 10 or so prospects tentatively expected to go inside the first two rounds.
This depth at the position could work in two ways:
Teams say, I don’t need to spend a mid-to-late first-round pick on the WR4 and WR5 in this class when I can just grab the WR9 or WR10 in Round 2.
OR, a couple of teams get an itchy trigger finger in the middle of Round 1, and the floodgates open for a string of WRs to come off the board Thursday night and get us to my spicy number of eight
Because I’m an optimist and unabashed lover of WRs, I’m betting on the latter.
Most prop markets have the line set at 6.5 WRs going in Round 1. In his updated mock draft, our very own Matthew Freedman projects only 6 WRs to be selected.
But neither the betting markets nor Mr. Freedman have fully accounted for the WR Avalanche I’m forecasting. Trust me, I have plenty of experience with WR Avalanches.
And the earthquake that will trigger this avalanche is Texas speedster Xavier Worthy going in the top 20, which is much earlier than anyone expects. Worthy is a polarizing prospect. A lot of draft evaluators give him a Day 2 grade, while virtually every mock draft you’ll read will slot him to the Bills or the Chiefs at the end of Round 1.
My hot take is that he never even makes it there. Worthy isn’t just a one-trick pony. He had an absurdly productive freshman year, where he showed that he can earn targets. Whether it’s a team like the Jags at 17 or the Steelers at 20 – or a team like the Bears trading back – Worthy is going to shock everyone with how early he goes (and immediately get way more expensive in Underdog drafts).
When that happens, teams like the Bills and Chiefs will have to scramble to land their consolation prize…which means 2024 will break the record set in the 2004 draft, when seven WRs were selected in Round 1.
3 more BOLD predictions for Draft night
