The Antonio Gibson Rollercoaster is the hottest ride in Fantasy Land...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Run Your Pool:

• An update on Zach Wilson's knee
• The RB1 playing on special teams?!
• Kendall's 2 fantasy breakouts
• Geoff's keeper league strategy
• Linda's favorite training camp riser at WR
• It’s 8/17. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

Zach Wilson had arthroscopic knee surgery yesterday, and it was "deemed a success" per ESPN's Rich Cimini.

Most notable for fantasy purposes, though, is that it's still unlikely that he's fully ready for the Jets' regular-season opener vs. the Ravens.

Enter: Joe Flacco. That's right, Flacco is in line to start vs. his former team Week 1.

With Wilson's recovery timeline in the 2-4 week range, I think this is the best of both worlds for both revenge game enthusiasts and those heavily invested in the Jets offense (my Breece Hall, Elijah Moore, and Garrett Wilson bags are heavy). 

The Jets might even feel like they have the luxury of not rushing Wilson back if Flacco can get an early W for the team, but only time will tell.

As for drafting, I'm not docking any of those Jets skill position players I listed above and will happily take any discounts that injury worrywarts are willing to give me. 

Remember, we are playing to win championships, not have the prettiest Week 1 roster.

Welcome To Your NFL Fantasy Cage Match...

It’s Fantasy Life vs. The Team at RunYourPool vs. You

After YEARS arguing with our amazing, well-informed, always-perfect fantasy analysis, it’s become quite clear you’ve all been HUNGRY to take us on in a fantasy league yourselves. 

Oh, we know.

But there’s always been a small logistical problem with that…

There are many of you and fantasy leagues can only realistically host so many members. Fourteen. Sixteen. That’s about all the members you can hold before you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel and your free agent wire looks like the roster for an XFL team.

But we’ve got good news: Fantasy Football pools exist! And the team at RunYourPool.com has offered to host one for us with a $1,000 pot, on the condition they get to play alongside us.

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Each member will submit a lineup of 9 players each week (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DST). Pick your lineup from the entire field of NFL players. Pool members can use the same players. By default, you can only use a player ONCE per season.

1. Your players will accrue points in real-time based on game stats.
2. Standings will be calculated for the week and for the year-to-date.
3. First place gets $500. Second, $350. Third, $150. And obviously, bragging rights will be had all around.

That’s it. You can sign up at the button below. We look forward to crushing you.

🤪 The RB1 playing special teams?? What a wild few days for the Commanders RB. Is everything back to normal?

🚑 Uh oh, a promising rookie RB is hurt. He might not be ready for Week 1.

🗽 Aaron Rodgers has an actor's head in his locker room. I wish I were kidding. 

🧀 The buzz on this rookie WR is never-ending. The drumbeat is frequent and loud.

🐬 The RB ready to take the leap. If Bill Belichick isn't lying (don't hold your breath), this could be a blastoff scenario.

🤥 Should you believe the buzz on Saquon Barkley, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens? ESPN reporters weigh in.

👑 Preaseason NFL vs. MLB regular season. The NFL is king.

Drafting safe ain't it. We need to be taking big swings to win our leagues. Today, Kendall shares two players she thinks are primed for breakouts...

🚀 Brandon Aiyuk (WR36 on Underdog Fantasy)

Out of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse and into the spotlight, it is time for wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to have a big season. Looking at career numbers won’t point you in this direction, because for all intents and purposes Aiyuk has only shown flashes of what he’s capable of. Aiyuk played 75% or more of the offense’s snaps once from Weeks 1 through 7 in 2021 and averaged 4.2 fantasy points per game. Towards the end of last season people were ready to jump on the hype train, and I firmly believe we just predicted his breakout a year too early. 

Of course, there are other factors to consider here. The 49ers still have elite players like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, who will take big chunks of targets this season, but Aiyuk showed at the end of last season that he can produce. According to Pro Football Focus, Aiyuk worked as the overall PPR WR16 from Weeks 8 through 18 in 2021. The biggest proponent of a breakout year for Aiyuk is “new” quarterback Trey Lance.

We didn’t get enough of a sample size last year to really know what kind of quarterback Lance could be, but the change in offensive style after moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo is something to consider. Per The Athletic’s Nate Tice, last season 18.3 percent of Lance’s 71 throws traveled 20-plus air yards (small sample size, but still). 8.4 percent of Garoppolo’s pass attempts traveled 20-plus air yards in 2021, so there’s a chance that Aiyuk’s downfield game is better suited for Lance this season. 

🚀 Gabriel Davis (WR22 on Underdog Fantasy)

The Grabiel Davis hype train is real and ready to leave the station. If you’re looking for numbers to back up the Davis agenda then history is not on your side (but stay strong). According to Pro Football Focus, he averaged 7.9 PPR points per game in his second season and had two weekly finishes in the top-24. The opportunity is there for Davis this year, though. 

Quarterback Josh Allen is projected for 39.7 touchdowns this season, and we constantly see teams with multiple top finishing wide receivers every year, so why not the Bills? Davis’ receiving touchdowns prop is set at 7.5 on BetMGM, and because a starting role is now expected, the over looks pretty juicy. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are both gone, and their departures leaves around 30 percent of the total target share available. We know it won’t all go to Davis, especially with Stefon Diggs around, but the writing is on the wall for Davis to have a big season.

Time to board the train.

If you’re in a keeper league you know that important decisions will have to be made soon. Who to keep on your roster and who to say goodbye to can make or break a keeper team before the season even begins. With such vital cuts looming, Geoff decided to go over a few pertinent points below...

Don’t say goodbye to the studs. Fantasy football keeper leagues are won by your best producers so if you have a high caliber player already on your roster you shouldn’t worry if his ADP arbitrage isn’t that high. 

Taken in the third round or later by many in 2021, D’Andre Swift is a great example of just that kind of keeper. Swift‘s 2022 second-round valuation means keeping him may only save you a single round of draft value but he’s also a player who showed lots of fantasy potential in 2021, and is in a great environment again in 2022. Keeping Swift would also block other players in your league from snagging him. 

Look for the best value. After you’ve decided on the studs, then you can go looking for those guys who you took in the 10th to 15th rounds last year and are now going five to eight rounds higher. Not all these players will be projected to be monsters for you in 2022 but they’ll do another job – save you draft capital. The ability to spend a 10th round draft pick to keep a player who is now going in the fifth round or higher is invaluable as it will let you use that fifth round pick on another high-end player. 

Here’s some players with the best arbitrage, or value associated with them in the higher rounds for keeper leagues:

• WR Darnell Mooney 2021 (10th round value) – 2022 ADP 59.9 (5th round)
• RB Elijah Mitchell 2021 (10th or later) – 2022 ADP 63.5 (6th round)
• TE Dalton Schultz 2021 (10th or later) – 2022 ADP 71.6 (6th to 7th round)

Remember, you don’t have to keep anyone. Most keeper leagues make keepers optional. If your team stunk last year simply going for the fresh start isn’t a bad idea. While many of your league mates will be without at least one of their higher round draft picks, you’ll have a full slate of picks and be able to make gains in the draft. Remember too, one of the hardest things in football is for players to back up big seasons (especially running backs) so plenty of keepers in your league won’t work out. Make the tough decision and don’t bypass the clean slate route just to look cool in front of your friends.

For more information on keeper leagues, including how they work, how to join, and places to play, go here or visit the website and look under our fantasy section where you'll find keeper strategy and a bunch of other cool stuff for you to look at.

Training camps and preseason action continue to push players up and down our draft boards. Today, Linda weighs in on a WR whose stock is on the rise...

There’s not an offense in 2022 that is more desirable than the Buffalo Bills. But what if I told you there is a piece of that offense going at WR72 and has the potential to finish as the second target on his high-powered offense? Well, that WR is Isaiah McKenzie, and he's been making noise since training camp started. 

The Bills moved on from WR Cole Beasley in the offseason and brought in veteran slot receiver Jamison Crowder, but McKenzie is the one impressing in practice.

The slot role in Buffalo has pulled in 100+ targets in the last three seasons and Beasley finished with double digit PPG those three seasons as well. The job was initially wide open, but the more we hear from camp the more the needle points to McKenzie. The Bills offered further confirmation after they rested him for their first preseason game with the likes of QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs. 

Speaking of Allen, he’s been singing the praises of McKenzie and his knowledge of the offense. He’s also anointed McKenzie with a nickname. I don’t have any stats to back this up, but if your QB has given you a nickname, that tells me things are getting pretty serious between the two. 

McKenzie is all but free right now, but I don’t expect that to last long. The more camp hype grows, the more his ADP will.

I took a pee twitter.com/markdanielspj/…

— Matthew Judon (@man_dammn)
Aug 16, 2022