š Can An āEliteā QB Save These WRs?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we dive into all of the latest news for Week 13, our Bets from the Group Chat, and a Hidden Gem WR to target.
Aaron Rodgers is now unlikely to play this season? WOW, CRAZYā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:
- The Browns get some help
- Morning Download: Updates on Etienne & Keenan
- Bets from the Group Chat: Can Kyren do it again?
- The WR set to explode
- Hidden Gems: The easiest click of the week?
- Itās 12/3. Take it away Peter Overzetā¦
If you wanted to sum up the state of the QB position in 2023 with a single sentence, Iām not sure you could do much better than:
Joe Flacco is starting for the Cleveland Browns todayā¦and itās a massive upgrade on what they had been previously trotting out there.
Yes, and to be clear, weāre talking about the same Flacco who entered the league in 2008 and was previously seen trying to keep the New York Jets afloat at the start of the 2022 season before getting benched for Mike White (and later returning for Week 18 after White got hurt).
And it may sound like Iām skeptical about what a 38-year-old journeyman QB can do for the Browns, but trust me, I think itās a legitimate upgrade for a lot of the offensive weaponry here.
šÆļø Leave a candle on for Amari Cooper & Elijah Moore
As Ian highlighted earlier this week, it literally couldnāt get any worse for the Brownsā passing game. Here is how Cleveland grades out in a variety of passing metrics heading into this week:
- PFF pass grade: 46.5 (32nd)
- Yards per attempt: 5.7 (31st)
- Adjusted completion rate: 67.8% (32nd)
- Passer rating: 66.0 (32nd)
- Catchable passes: 71% (32nd)
With Flacco under center, our Fantasy Life team is slotting in Cooper as a high-end WR3 option (Ian is the most bullish with a fringe WR2 ranking), while Moore lands in intriguing FLEX territory:
If you really want to take a stroll down narrative street, listen to how Cooper and Moore have been gushing about Flacco this week:
āHe has it under controlā - Moore on Flacco
āI donāt know if itās intentional or what, but when he drops back and he lets it go, the whole motion is like poetry in motion. It looks good.ā - Cooper on Flacco
POETRY IN MOTION?!Ā
If thatās not the DTR and PJ Walker talking, I donāt know what is.
It is also worth noting that Garrett Wilson had the best game of his career (14-102-2) with Flacco last year, so it really isnāt a stretch to think Flacco could facilitate some nice fantasy performances here.
I didnāt even mention David Njoku because heās been weathering the QB storm as is, earning a gaudy 33 targets over the past three weeks.
Heās our TE9 on the week and a no-brainer start in most spots.
The Browns, as always, will prefer to run the ball, but if the Rams get a lead or keep things close, we might actually get to see some signs of life from this offense.
š ļø Everything you need for Week 13
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on Travis Etienne, the Chiefs backfield, and Keenan Allenā¦
For everything else you need for Week 13āincluding our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updatesāyou can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for todayās slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with playersā statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend ā lucky you ā letās get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
šĀ Travis Etienneā¦ the Dreaded Monday Night Questionable
For fantasy purposes, thereās nothing worse than a star player who is questionable for Monday Night Football. Etienne fits that description in Week 13.
That leaves fantasy owners in a pretty precarious spot. If you leave Etienne in your starting lineup and he ultimately gets ruled out, you might leave yourself without much flexibility. You may have someone like Tank Bigsby to put in his place ā or a wide receiver if you move Etienne to a flex spot ā but they might not be as good as someone you couldāve started on Sunday.
Fortunately, it does seem like Etienne is trending towards playing. ESPNās Jeremy Fowler reports that the Jags are āoptimisticā their star RB will be in the lineup, so hopefully, this is a moot point.
Etienne is currently ranked as our No. 4 running back for Week 13, so you have to leave the light on for him. Even if this was a true 50/50 situation ā and I donāt think thatās the case ā the upside is ultimately too high to pass up.
šĀ Isaiah Pacheco ā Stock Up
Pacheco has already operated as a starting fantasy running back, but his fantasy stock is even higher than usual heading into Week 13. Heāll take the field as a six-point home favorite in a solid matchup, and now Jerick McKinnon has been ruled out with a groin injury.
With McKinnon out of the lineup in Week 12, Pacheco played on a season-high 79% of the teamās snaps. Heās had at least 75% of the teamās rushing attempts in three straight games, and he had a season-best 68% route rate in his last contest.
That leaves Pacheco with a really fantasy-friendly workload. He already handles nearly all of the short-yardage work, so adding in some additional pass-catching upside makes him a really strong option. He was the No. 4 PPR running back in Week 12, and he could be looking at another high-end finish against the Packers.
ā”ļø All Systems Go For Keenan Allen?
Allen was absent from practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but he was able to return for a limited session on Friday. Heās officially questionable heading into Sundayās matchup vs. the Patriots, but Allen has already said he intends on playing.
Weāll have to make sure that Allen is officially active, but as long as he is, thereās zero cause for concern. Allen has been an absolute monster this season, trailing only Tyreek Hill in terms of PPR points per game at receiver. Even at less than 100%, heās a comfortable WR1 for fantasy purposes.
šŗ Fantasy Life on LG Channels: LIVE TODAY at 11:00 am EST!
Get all of your last-minute news from the best in the business!!
GREAT NEWS!!! You don't need to own an LG TV to watch Fantasy Life on LG Channels! You should definitely still buy an LG TV if you don't have one but until you do, you can watch Fantasy Life on HERE!
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When:Ā TODAY at 11:00am EST
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Why: Because they are going to get you ready to win your dominate your fantasy matchups before kick-off including:
- 5 guys who could boom
- Zack is Back!
- Will Rashee Rice continue to cook?
Welcome to Week 13 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. Itās really a selfish endeavor as heāll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
We are back with another winner from Week 12. The group chat parlay record moved back to 4-4 after last weekās +413 bet hit. We are now +17.52 units since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).Ā
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below. Good luck!
1ļøā£ Freedman likes: Kalif Raymond over 16.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)Ā
- Play to: 18.5 (-110)Ā
- Projection: 20.2 yards
This one doesnāt require too much explanation. Raymond has gone over this mark in nine of 11 games this year. An 82% hit rate.
Given the low O/U Raymond has, the fact the Saints will be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle, IR) (and maybe FS Marcus Maye (shoulder)), starting the parlay with a Raymond over makes plenty of sense for Week 13.Ā
2ļøā£ Mark Drumheller likes: Colts/Titans over 42.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: 42.5 (-120)Ā
The Colts have been one of the rare over teams this year. They are 7-4 to the over in 11 games played and are also 10th in plays per game.Ā
This week, they face an eroding Tennessee defense (Titans ranks 28th in EPA per play allowed). As Mark noted himself in our FREE bet tracker, āthe first matchup (23-16 Colts win) yielded 39 total points, but had 777 total yards between the two teams.
3ļøā£ Geoff likes: Steelers -6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -6.5 (-120)
I bet this at -5.5 in our Free bet tracker early but like the Steelers at anything under the key number of 7.0. Starting WR Michael Wilson is out and WR Marquise Brown (heel) is questionable. Two of their cornerbacks are out as well.Ā
The Steelers offense looked rejuvenated last week and Kenny Pickett posted the second highest QBR of the season. Given how bad the Cardinals run stoppers are (fifth last in success rate against the run) they may not need Pickett much in this game.
š¤ Putting it all together: +593, BetMGM SGP
- Kalif Raymond over 16.5 receiving yards -111
- Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans over 42.5 -110
- Steelers -6.5 -110
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
šĀ Week 13 Ladder Plays - Kyren Williams (BetMGM)
- 75+ rush yards (+130) - play to +125
- 100+ rec yards (+360) - play to +350
- 125+ rush yards (+750) - play to +700
The Browns are banged up and have been regressing as a run-stopping unit. Theyāre just 14 in success rate against the run and have been allowing more and more explosive run plays of late (including a 74-yard run by Jaylen Warren two weeks ago).Ā
Williams had a 56-yard run last week and also clocked a 31-yard in Week 6 prior to his injury. Overall, Williams has topped 100 rush yards in three of his last four starts.Ā
Despite all this, we are still getting fantastic odds to chase Williams through 100 and even 125 yards this week, making him a great ladder target for Week 13.
šĀ The RB going for 100+ & 2TDs today. The chopper has spoken.
šĀ A TE streamer you need?Ā Brevin Jordan gets the best matchup on the board.
šĀ Will this be the last season of the tush push?Ā Rumors are swirling.
š° Last-minute bets, anyone?Ā Weāre up +13.19 units in the last 30 days and have over 25-plus FREE bets waiting for you.
šĀ Is Andy Reid the greatest coach of all time?Ā Check the scoreboard.
šĀ Week 13 Walkthrough.Ā Best spot of the season for the WR1?
š¤Ā Can the game of the week get even better?Ā 20x better, actuallyā¦
šØĀ Just how high is the 49ers ceiling this week?Ā Bets to hammer for Week 13.
š¤£Ā What three routes would Quentin Johnston thrive in?Ā Savage.
š¤ÆĀ Brock Purdy is INSANE at this one thing. Chase Daniel explains.
Everyone knows the best plays. Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
Week 13 sets up as a tricky slate with so many teams on bye, but there is still plenty of scroll-down goodness to be had.
Below I have one player at each position who could be the unique piece that helps you win a tournament.
Letās dig inā¦
šĀ WR - Josh Downs, Colts (ADP: 35.7)
Last week we did a blind itemĀ comparingĀ Chris Olave withĀ Rashid Shaheed. That one didnāt break our way, but we need to continue to exploit this dynamic where two WRs with very similar profiles are being valued very differently by the market.
The mainstream media wonāt tell you that bothĀ Michael Pittman Jr.Ā (ADP: 19.1) andĀ Josh Downs (ADP: 35.7) had 13 targets last week. But because Pittman had the more efficient day, converting his targets into 10 receptions for 107 yards, the field is drafting him in every contest while fully ignoring Downs.
Another reason to scroll down for Downs is his role in the endzone. He narrowly missed a TD last week that would have certainly changed how the field is viewing him heading into Week 13:
In Week 13 the Colts head to Tennessee to face a Titans secondaryĀ that gives up the 9th most fantasy points to WRs.Ā
Feel free to correlate Downs withĀ Gardner Minshew, or simply take him as a one-off.
Heās one of the easiest clicks in recent memory. Load up.Ā
Hidden Gems at QB, RB, and TE!
