☄️ Can This Longshot Pull It Off?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we dive into the Vikings' postseason hopes, Week 16's biggest Sheeshes, and more!
The Minnesota Vikings should rock paper scissors for who gets to start at QB…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- The Vikings are fighting for a playoff spot
- Sheesh Report: Week 16 edition…
- An update on Trevor Lawrence
- Buy, Sell, Hold: Bench players are ballers, too
- It’s 12/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
Brock Purdy was the MVP favorite heading into MNF, and now he’s behind Lamar Jackson and his own teammate, Christian McCaffrey.
Life comes at ya fast in the NFL.
And that’s especially true for the Minnesota Vikings right now.
A couple of weeks ago, they had anywhere from a 75-80% chance to make the postseason, according to various playoff projection models.
Since then, they’ve dropped two one-score games against the Bengals and Lions, which has plummeted their playoff odds to less than 20%.
What’s crazy is that they still can claw their way back into the playoffs under these conditions:
Two straight wins over the Packers (Week 17) and the Lions (Week 18)
The Rams or Seahawks lose one game over the next two weeks
🤔 Can they do it without T.J. Hockenson, though?
The problem, however, is that the team continues to suffer hits:
They are still 2-point home favorites this week vs. the Packers on SNF, but not only will they not have Hockenson, they have also yet to make their mind up at QB.
As an unbiased, liberated fan, I think I’m pulling for the Seahawks and the Rams to hold on—they have more stable and interesting offenses who could make noise in the Wildcard Round.
But I’m happy to be proven wrong. Let’s see what you got, Minnesota…
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Fantasy Life Resident Sheesh Expert Ian Hartitz has made it his weekly mission to provide the sort of beyond-the-box-score juice that will not only help inform you of integral details you may have missed but also provide PT-Fantasy-SD — because why not?
Presenting: The Week 16 Sheesh Report.
🤦 “Sheesh.” - Cooper Kupp
2023 hasn’t been a year to remember for Kupp. His fantasy managers can probably relate:
- August 1, 2023: Kupp suffered a grade two hamstring strain that sidelined him for the first four games of the season.
- October 29, 2023: Matthew Stafford suffered a finger injury that essentially nuked Kupp’s production in back-to-back contests against the Cowboys and Packers.
- November 19, 2023: Kupp suffered an ankle injury just 18 snaps into the game. While the issue didn’t cause any future missed games, it clearly hobbled the 2021 triple-crown winner during the next few weeks of action.
- December 21, 2023: Kupp duds with a 6-52-0 performance following back-to-back weeks with 100-plus yards and a score.
The last performance wasn’t that brutal … until you watch the film. It’s not a stretch of the imagination to say that Kupp should have had not one but two additional two-yard TDs to his name during the Rams’ Thursday night win over the Saints.
Neither was an absolute layup, but both were still balls that you would expect one of the game’s single-best players to catch more times than not.
Here’s to hoping Kupp can rebound in Week 17’s smash spot against the Giants’ 27th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position on the off chance that some of his fantasy managers are still alive.
🤦 Would have been a lot cooler if Tyreek Hill caught this
There were roughly six clear dropped TDs in Week 16, which sucks because, you know, football is pretty cool when players make great catches and score points:
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (92 – not overly easy while running full speed downfield, but sheesh)
- Chiefs TE Noah Gray (7)
- Texans WR John Metchie (5)
- Rams WR Cooper Kupp (2, 2 – sheesh)
- Commanders TE John Bates (1)
Seahawks TE Colby Parkinson also caught a pass in the back corner of the end zone on what should have been a nine-yard TD, but sadly he only managed to get one foot down and showed no awareness to even attempt a toe drag. That said: Kudos to Parkinson for later catching a game-winning five-yard score with just 57 seconds left.
A similar phenomenon happened to Falcons RB Bijan Robinson on what probably should have been a four-yard TD. Sadly, Robinson’s fantasy managers didn’t get a redemption story here.
🤦 Tony Pollard: C’mon, man
Getting all the way to the one-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling – particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 16’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Packers RB Aaron Jones (x2, same drive)
- 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
- Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
- Cowboys RB Tony Pollard (and it’s rather unbelievable he didn’t manage to score)
- Eagles RB D’Andre Swift
- Broncos RB Javonte Williams
- Bills RB James Cook
- Bills RB Leonard Fournette
- Ravens RB Gus Edwards
- Bears RB Roschon Johnson
- Ravens TE Isaiah Likely
- Chargers TE Gerald Everett
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
- Texans QB Davis Mills
Swift joins Austin Ekeler and Joe Mixon with six such sheeshes this season. That’s a lot of sheesh!
All of the “Sheesh!” moments from Week 16
📈 A late-season upgrade to WR1 status, a returning RB1, and more. Utilization takeaways you need to know.
🤔 Maybe these teams should have considered Lamar Jackson? Just spit-balling.
🚀 It’s never too early to prep for next season. Pass-catchers to buy low on.
📺 Holiday hangover be damned. Recapping everything from an action-packed Week 16.
🚑️ An update on Trevor Lawrence. Status is TBD.
🕹️ Jahmyr Gibbs from every angle. So good.
🖼️ The AFC Playoff Picture…is WIDE open.
✈️ The Jet who stole Christmas. He called his shot.
📽️ Should he go Top 2 in the draft? Here’s Colt McCoy reviewing Drake Maye.
✍️ Can Joe Flacco stay hot against a stingy secondary? Position-by-position breakdown for TNF.
🗑️ I think it’s safe to call him a bust. So unfortunate.
Just because we are in our fantasy football playoffs era doesn’t mean we can’t talk Buying & Selling. The season isn’t over quite yet and Cooterdoodle is here to walk us through some championship buy-ins.
🛒 BUY
🧘 Winners are Flexible
No, I’m not talking about whether or not you can touch your little toes. This is purely about mental flexibility.
If you think back through your conversations with your leaguemates this season, whether it be during trade negotiations or debating players in the group chat, the interaction has undoubtedly referenced the value of players.
But… What is player value?
Some people will call back to a player's ADP during your draft: “He was the 1.01, after all.” Others will tout accolades from years prior, based on name value alone: “Dude, it’s Ja’Marr Chase!” And some leaguemates will even judge players on hypothetical values that have never been grounded in reality.
While ADP, name value, past stats, and wishful thinking are all welcome to the table, the 2023 season has highlighted our fantasy football blindspots. At least, for some of us.
And because of that, we needed to be FLEXIBLE as hell this year if we wanted to succeed.
We needed to recognize what was happening in the Dolphins offense and start Raheem Mostert with confidence, even though De’Von Achane had such a stellar start this season. If you looked at the numbers entering Week 16, Mostert had scored in all but three games this entire season. That’s with and without Achane. That’s with and without Tyreek Hill stealing the show some (most) weeks.
We could also have a similar discussion about starting Joe Flacco in Week 16, who has looked solid in his Browns uniform since starting in Week 13, elevating players like David Njoku and Amari Cooper.
Or perhaps we needed to give more credit to Ezekiel Elliott who has made the most of his opportunities while Rhamondre Stevenson has been out with an injury.
Flexibility is the key to taking home the trophy.
So lesson learned, right? Take all aspects of player value into account, but don’t overvalue ADP and year-old stats while ignoring information that’s happening right now. Because you might just miss what’s in your fantasy football blindspot.
🛒 BUY
🪑 Bench Players are Ballers, Too
Well well well. We learned a lesson this week, didn’t we?
Whether you were afraid to start them because of tough matchups, or because they were elevated to a starting position at the last minute, or maybe you just never trusted them to play this well to begin with… Let’s highlight just a couple of players that likely remained on benches during the semifinals, but deserved a starting spot in your lineups:
- George Pickens: 4 rec for 195 yds & 2 TDs
- Zamir White: 22 att for 145 yds
- Tee Higgins: 5 rec for 140 yds & 1 TD
- Demarcus Robinson: 6 rec for 82 yds & 1 TD
- Gabe Davis: 4 rec for 130 yds & 1 TD
To be absolutely clear, this isn’t a “you should’ve known” kind of message. It’s a “don’t count anyone out” message to take with you into next season.
Believe in yourself. And when your back is up against the wall, with a depleted team of all-stars who are out and injured… believe in your bench. They just might pull it off!
