š Can This Team Survive Another Injury?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we preview the remainder of the schedule for the Ravens and their outlook, predict the 2024 first round of fantasy drafts, and more.
Admit itāthe Chargers upsetting the Bills this week would be hilariousā¦
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Webex:
- Can the Ravens pull it off?
- 2024 First Round Predictions: Get your crystal ballā¦
- Injury updates across the league
- Buy, Sell, Hold: Hindsight is 20/20ā¦
- Itās 12/20. Take it away, Peter Overzetā¦
As we enter the regular season homestretch, Iām not sure there is a more interesting team than the Baltimore Ravens.
They started out the year losing their star RB, J.K. Dobbins, to a knee injury.
They then lost Mark Andrews in Week 11 after he suffered a cracked fibula and ankle injury on a controversial hip-drop tackle.
They havenāt missed a beat, though. They have rattled off four straight wins to move to 11-3 on the year and sole possession of the AFC North.
According to Sumer Sports, they have a 67.7% chance to earn the bye and the third highest odds to make the Super Bowl:
Thatās the good news.
The bad news is that the deck is heavily stacked against them over these next few weeks.
Yesterday, they placed electric rookie RB Keaton Mitchell on IR. Mitchell appeared to be on the verge of a true breakout and it brings into question just how many injuries to key contributors the Ravens can sustain while remaining true Super Bowl contenders.
The schedule is doing them no favors, either.
This week they face off in primetime on Christmas night vs. the best team in football:
After that tough test, they get a date with the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.
The range of outcomes for Baltimore over these next few weeks is wide.
If they beat the Niners and Dolphins, they would lock up the bye and Lamar Jackson would become the MVP front-runnerāhe currently sits at +500 behind only Brock Purdy (-200).
For more on the MVP race, check out our most recent episode of the Betting Life Podcast.
If they drop these marquee games, though, Purdy will earn the award and the Ravens will tumble to the No. 2 seed and lose home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
It will be fascinating to see if guys like Gus Edwards can step up and fill the void, otherwise we might be looking at another heartbreaking finish to a Ravens season.
Iāll be tuning inā¦
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Itās never too early to start thinking about next yearās fantasy drafts. Today, Ian shares his forecast for the first round of 2024 draftsā¦
šļø 1.01: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
CMC is on pace to become just the 12th player in NFL history to gain over 2,000 total yards and score 20-plus TDs in a single season. Whether or not thatās good enough for MVP honors remains to be seen; just realize this San Fran version of McCaffrey is up there with the very best fantasy producers the position has seen in quite some time.
Overall, there have been just seven instances of an RB averaging 25-plus PPR points per game in a single season over the past 10 years (min. 8 games):
- 2019 McCaffrey (29.5 PPR points per game)
- 2018 Todd Gurley (26.6)
- 2016 LeāVeon Bell (26.5)
- 2017 Gurley (25.6)
- 2016 David Johnson (25.5)
- 2023 McCaffrey (25.2)
- 2020 Alvin Kamara (25.2)
The only thing that has stopped CMC from being fantasyās 1.01 in each of the past five seasons was the occasional misguided belief that he was more injury-prone than other options at the top of the draft. The 27-year-old veteran hasnāt missed a game since 2021.
RBs usually donāt fall off a cliff in fantasy land until their age 29 season, while CMC has the sort of scoring upside and receiving volume to overcome any potential loss in rushing efficiency as he climbs over 1,500 career carries.
If his Week 15 performance was any indication: McCaffrey is poised to end the 2023 fantasy season in style and reward many of his managers with championship glory. Donāt be surprised if the long-time fantasy cheat code warrants consensus industry 1.01 treatment as the engine of the leagueās single-most lethal offensive attack.
šļøĀ 1.10: Jets WR Garrett Wilson
The Zach Wilson experience hasnāt made life easy for Wilson in 2023; just realize the second-year talent has largely made the most out of his opportunities anyway thanks to a ridiculous blend of contested- and after-the-catch ability.
There have been moreĀ than a few routes that featured Wilson getting all kinds of open ā¦ only to not even get the football thrown into the frame. ESPN analytics rank Wilson as one of just six receivers with an āOpen rateā of at least 85:
- Brandon Aiyuk (92)
- Keenan Allen (91)
- Wilson (87)
- CeeDee Lamb (87)
- A.J. Brown (87)
- Tyreek Hill (85)
This hasnāt ALWAYS been on Zach ā The Jets boast PFFās single-worst offensive line after all ā but then again he does rank 35th in completion percentage over expected (-2.9%).
Maybe 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers wonāt be anything close to the same talent in 2024 upon returning from this yearās devastating Achilles injury. Then again, his comments on Tuesday paint the picture of someone interested in playing multiple more seasons ā meaning Wilson should finally get to catch passes from, you know, a non-shitty QB for the first time in his professional career.
More third-year WRs populate the positionās top-12 fantasy performers than any other experience bucket: First-round ADP here is lofty, but Wilsonās combination of youth, talent and volume gives him the edge over more proven veterans like Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp among others despite his QB situation not fully being in the clear just yet.
A full potential 2024 first-round fantasy draft
š§ Ā Playoff scenarios for Week 16. Print this out and bring it to Christmas Eve dinner.
šĀ A new RB1 entering the mix?Ā Breaking down Week 15ās biggest utilization takeaways.
šĀ Breaking out when fantasy managers need it most.Ā Four players who could be difference-makers in Week 16.
šĀ This doesnāt sound good for the Jags. Time will tellā¦
š¤£Ā Turning things leaguemates say into inspirational quotes. Iād buy this calendar.
š Eliminated from the fantasy playoffs? (or just want more action?)Ā Donāt worry, draft season isnāt over.
āļø Rams. Saints. Thursday Night Football.Ā Everything you need for the NFC showdown.
šļøĀ It might be one and done for Drew Lock. But he was so much fun!
šĀ Your new Zero RB poster boy. What a season.
š£Ā Hey Joe Bradyā¦keep giving the ball to James Cook.
šļøĀ Injuries to monitor this week. And players to stash.
Just because we are in our fantasy football playoffs era doesnāt mean we canāt talk Buying & Selling. The season isnāt over quite yet and Cooterdoodle is here to walk us through some playoff buy-ins.Ā
Whether you have made it through the first round of the playoffs (yay) or youāve been eliminated (sorry), this pertains to you. This is playoff SZN, baby! Letās get into some aspects that I can buy into, and others that Iām totally ready to sell.
š BUY
š Camaraderie > Competition
This applies to fantasy football, too, but I want to talk about the National Football League for a second.
Weāve heard about QB battles and guys duking it out each offseason in August. Weāve seen Zach Wilson āmake that dudeās life hell.ā (Well, weāve seen Zach Wilson say those words, at least.)
Weāve also seen fans and analysts chirp about which QB should get the starting nod, even if the Jameis Winston Experience can be a terrifying ride.
But what we havenāt witnessed much of, and Iād love to see more of, is some good-natured guy-on-guy action.Ā
Well, Monday night, that is exactly what we got.Ā
Not only was it fun watching Drew Lock lead the Seahawks to a victory over the Eagles in Week 15. Not only was it wonderful to hear Lockās humble and giddy victory speech. But Iāll be damned if the most heartwarming clip of the night wasnāt the shared elation between Geno Smith and Lock after Jaxon Smith-Njigbaās 29-yard TD reception.
I know that competition is a necessary fuel for the game's fire. I KNOW THAT. But sometimes a little camaraderie can go a long way.Ā
More of these vibes in 2024, please.
šļø SELL
š¢ Hindsight is always 20/20
With the gift of hindsight also comes the freedom to overlook extenuating circumstances.Ā
What I mean is, everyone likes to look back and play the āWhat if I had drafted Player X insteadā or āWhat if I hadnāt dropped Player Zā stats. And I get it, Iāve been bitten by the hindsight analysis, too.
But Iāve also seen fantasy managers kicking themselves for moves they made months ago that donāt account for all of the mitigating factors leading to those fantasy transactions.
Letās take Davis Njoku for example. The Browns have evolved dramatically since the beginning of the season (and beyond, honestly). But more than just the Browns' evolution, Week 5 came with plenty of player injuries that influenced fantasy decisions and the evolution of your own fantasy football teams.Ā
Just look at the players who sustained multi-week injuries in Week 5:
- Anthony Richardson
- Khalil Herbert
- DeāVon Achane
- Justin Jefferson
Injuries, Bye weeks, and your roster needs of the past are extremely hard to remember in Week 16. So how can you fully justify a move you made in early October? Donāt kick yourself too hard for a decision you made weeks ago with a limited set of information.Ā
While itās important to look back and assess where we might have messed up, itās also just as valid to recognize that you were viewing your team through an entirely different lens.Ā
So I need you to forgive yourself. Seriously. LOOK AT ME WHEN IāM TALKING TO YOU.
Hey, you. Yes, youā¦ I forgive you for that totally bone-headed thing you did with your roster.
