š§© Can You Solve This Backfield Puzzle?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we break down the Week 18 rankings and tiers, power ranks, and more.
If your league is still going in Week 18, you might want to find another leagueā¦
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Fantasy Lifeās YouTube:
- The Niners backfield riddle
- Week 18 Rankings & Tiers: 2 RBs to fire up
- Week 18 Power Ranks
- Freedmanās Favorites: Big names to bet on
- Itās 1/4. Take it away, Peter Overzetā¦
There are so many riddles to solve when it comes to fantasy football in Week 18.
But arguably the biggest one this week is who will get the lionās share of the carries in the Niners backfield with Christian McCaffrey ruled out:
You can make a strong case for both Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason, as evidenced by the differences in opinion from our three rankers. Dwain and Freedman have Mitchell ahead, while Waz prefers Mason:
Based on the Week 17 usage after CMC left the game in the third quarter, it would seem like Mitchell has the edge:
But the other interesting data point to consider is that Niners beat reporter Matt Barrows believes Mason will be the teamās primary running back in Week 18:
Christian McCaffrey (calf) already is out for the game. And we all know Elijah Mitchellās injury history. Which points to Mason ā and perhaps fellow 2022 rookie Tyrion Davis-Price ā getting a heavy workload against the Rams. The 49ers would have to elevate Davis-Price from the practice squad for the game.
So the big question is whether the Niners consider Mitchell part of their "startersā cohort that they want to protect in a meaningless game or not.
If this were a must-win game, Mitchell would be the evidence-based pick, but Iām personally inclined to go with Mason here. Weāll keep you posted if we get more infoā¦
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 18 of the fantasy football season. Below youāll find Dwainās thoughts on two players set up for a big week. Find all of our positional rankings here.
š„ Running Back
š„Ā Tier 2 - Kenneth Walker
Walker has taken firm command of the Seahawks' ground attack over the last three games, handling 80% of the attempts. Zach Charbonnet remains involved as the primary long-down and distance (LDD, third and fourth down with three or more yards to go) and two-minute option, but Walker still averages 17 opportunities per contest with 14.7 attempts and 2.3 targets.
Walker is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit him in practice again this week, but a lack of practice time hasnāt been a factor over the last two games. With the Seahawks needing a win this weekend to have a shot at a playoff birth, expect Walker to leave everything on the field against the Cardinals.
Arizona allows the most yards (143) and the fifth-most TDs (1.0) per contest on the ground, leading to huge fantasy outings for opponents. No other team allows more points per game (28) than the Cardinals.
The Seahawks carry the third-highest total on the slate (25.25) as 2.5-point favorites. If Walker gets to 20-plus touches, he has a chance to eclipse 100 yards and could have a multi-TD day. At $6,500, he will be a popular selection on DraftKings with so much uncertainty around playing time for teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs, Browns and Rams.
The Seahawks play in the late window and wonāt know their fate before the game starts. They need to win, and for the Packers ā who also play in the late window ā to lose.
Walker is in a SMASH play as my RB7 and is a top-20 flex option, assuming the shoulder is good to go.
š„ Running Back
š„Ā Tier 3 - Devin Singletary
Singletary has become the focal point of the Texans backfield over the last four games. The 26-year-old RB has bogarted 67% of the rushing attempts, including 75% of the work inside the five-yard line. He gives way to Dare Ogunbowale in LDD situations but remains the primary option when it matters most in the passing game ā the two-minute offense.
Singletary averages 16 attempts and 3.3 targets per game over this stretch, making him a high-end RB2 option with C.J. Stroud back at the helm. Over the last 12 years, RBs with Singletaryās profile averaged 14.4 points and an RB15 finish.
The Texans and Colts will face off on Saturday night in one of the most exciting matchups of the weekend. Whoever wins the game is in the playoffs.
Indianapolis allows the sixth-most rushing yards (128) and the third-most TDs (1.3) per game, making this a potential blowup spot. If the Texans donāt have Noah Brown, we could see Singletary more involved in a condensed passing game.
Singletary UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status as my RB13 and ranks inside my top-25 flex options.
ALL of the Week 18 Rankings you NEED
šØāš³Ā Will anyone sign Dalvin Cook?Ā Letās reunite the brothers in Buffalo.
šŗ Playoff scenarios, upgrades, and more.Ā Everything you need for NFL Week 18.
āļø Your fantasy season may be over, but you can still gain an edge.Ā Four players to stash.
š° A week unlike any other.Ā How to navigate the Week 18 betting slate.
šŖĀ Week 18 power rankings. Do you agree?
šøĀ The NFL slaps David Tepper on the wrist. Should have added a ā0ā to this.
š¬Ā Will the Dolphins play spoiler to the Bills?Ā Best bets for the weekend.
š¤¢Ā Donāt read this Jets fans. You donāt love to see it.
ā Can you guess who led all players in fan balloting for the Pro Bowl?Ā I bet you canāt.
šŖĀ A couple key QBs wonāt play in Week 18. Hereās oneā¦hereās another.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called āFreedmanās Favoritesā. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding āNoā. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 18ā¦
š Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Commanders
- Cowboys: -13
- O/U: 46
- TT: 29.5
The Cowboys can secure the No. 2 seed with a win, so I expect them to play their starters per usual.
Prescott had a bounce-back performance last week (345 yards, two TDs passing to one INT), and in the 11 games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss in Week 5, he has passed for 3,176 yards and 27 TDs with just four INTs and added 43-197-2 rushing.Ā
This is yet another situational smash spot for Prescott. In the regular season, as a favorite, heās 48-33-2 ATS (14.3% ROI). In division, heās 28-11 ATS (39.8% ROI). As a divisional favorite, heās 24-8 ATS (45.9% ROI, per Action Network).
On Thanksgiving in Week 12, Prescott passed for 331 yards and four TDs against the Commanders, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.4 FPPG).
šĀ Zamir White (Raiders) vs. Broncos
- Raiders: -2.5
- O/U: 39
- TT: 20.75
No. 1 RB Josh Jacobs (quad) has missed the past three games and didnāt practice at all last week. Iām skeptical heāll return to action for the season finale.
In his stead, White has 336 yards and a TD with a 70 snap rate, 74% rush rate, and 54% route rate over the past three weeks (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
The Broncos are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.5).
šĀ Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) at Titans
- Jaguars: -5.5
- O/U: 40
- TT: 22.75
Since WR Christian Kirk (groin, IR) exited Week 13 early, Ridley has garnered 50 targets in five games. His production has been mediocre (23-247-2 receiving), but Iām expecting positive regression given the sheer volume heās recently seen, especially since WR Jamal Agnew (leg, IR) is out and WR Zay Jones (knee, hamstring) is uncertain after missing Weeks 16-17. (Note: Kirk might return in Week 18)
Ridley in Week 11 had 7-103-2 receiving on nine targets against the Titans, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.135) and SR (48.7%).
Ridley is a high-end WR2 if QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is able to start -- and I expect him to suit up.
Ā šĀ Greg Dortch (Cardinals) vs. Seahawks
- Cardinals: +2.5
- O/U: 48
- TT: 22.75
WR Michael Wilson missed Weeks 11-14 with a shoulder injury, and then WR Marquise Brown (heel) exited Week 15 early and missed Weeks 16-17, so Dortch has had a snap rate of at least 65% and a route rate of at least 70% in each of the past six games.
With that playing time, he has led the Cardinals WRs with a 17% target share, which he has leveraged into a position-high 21-264-2 receiving (to go along with a five-yard carry as well as eight kick returns and eight punt returns).Ā
Thatās not exciting -- but itās also not nothing.
šĀ Austin Hooper (Raiders) vs. Broncos
- Raiders: -2.5
- O/U: 39
- TT: 20.75
No. 1 TE Michael Mayer (toe) has missed the past two games, and I doubt heāll play this week given that he didnāt practice at all last week.
In his absence, Hooper has a 77% route rate. That gives him a shot to do more than most people would expect against the Broncos, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2).
