š« Don't Double Count These 2 RBs
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we preview the weather for Week 16, look at the best DFS stacks for the weekend, and more.
All I want for the holidays is an injury-free rosterā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Webex:
- Double-Counting Due to the Weather? Donāt do it.
- Rankings Roundtable: Achane. Zeke. The RBs You Need.
- The NFL couldnāt have scripted it any better: JT is back.
- DFS Stacks: Nick Mullens + JJettas = $$$
- The Walkthrough: Justin Fields is on a mission
- Itās 12/23. Take it away, Chris Allenā¦
Sometimes, weāll see a player and their matchup at the start of the week and get excited.
Whether it be because of their workload or how well a similar position fared against the defense theyāll face, it all lines up to be a smash spot. And then, weāll get even more āgoodā news thatāll factor into our roster decisions. Last week is an excellent example.
The forecast in Charlotte ahead of the Panthersā bout against the Falcons was bleak. Actually, āwetā would be the better descriptor. Regardless, the anticipated shift to a run-heavy approach for both teams made Bijan Robinson a popular play in DFS.
The result? An Arthur Smith rug pull for the ages, as Robinson touched the ball the fewest times in any game this season (minus āThe Headacheā game).
Fantasy managers tend to double-count weather narratives when reviewing rankings or projections. Itās fine to use them as tie-breakers, but in two cases this weekend, letās stick to what we know.
šŖ Jaylen Warren, Steelers
The Steelers host the Bengals this afternoon in their divisional rematch. However, rain was in the forecast to start the week. Plus, Najee HarrisĀ missed practice on Tuesday with a knee issue. Those two pieces of information likely sent Jaylen Warren managers to the moon. But Iām here to toss some water (not rainwater, to be clear) on the idea of going all in on Pittsburghās RB2.
As of this writing, the rain wonāt come until well after the game is over. And Harris got full practices to close out the week. Accordingly, our rankers have the duo as mid-range RB3 options for the fantasy semi-finals.
Cincinnati is missing one of their best run defenders.
They just got trucked by Ty Chandler for 24.7 PPR points a week ago. And Harris and Warren combined for 161 scrimmage yards the last time they faced. But with the workload still split, starting either in Week 16 is a bet on who winds up getting into the end zone.
š¤ Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs
Isiah PachecoĀ returned to practice on Wednesday, and Jerick McKinnon (groin) closed out the week with DNPs. And, of course, the elements are lending further credence to Pacheco returning to the Top 12.
The wind? Not a factor. At 13 mph from the WNW, the airflow aligns with the stadiumās 260-degree orientation, generating either a tail or headwind. No crossbreeze. No problem.
But the rain and potential snow will have folks looking at Pacheco as the only play. However, at 0.02 inches per hour, we wonāt even notice the precipitation as weāre watching the game. Field degradation (the Chiefs play on grass) is possible as the rain will start on Christmas Eve, but per league regulations, the ground can be covered by a tarp up until 90 minutes before kickoff.
Pacheco was an RB1 before his injury, for sure. But with how well Clyde Edwards-Helaire has performed lately, the former first-rounder can fill the pass-game void should McKinnon sit. And Rashee Riceās fully-fledged WR1 status will also take some looks away from Pacheco. So, with this being his first game back, letās not bank on the weather being the reason for a Pacheco bounce-back game.
š ļø Everything you need for Week 16
For everything else you need for the Week 16 Saturday slateāincluding our Inactives pageāyou can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for todayās slate below:
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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players theyāre willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 16.
Happy holidays!
Itās time to get in that last-minute shopping, wrap presents, and spend some well-deserved time with family and friends.
Oh, wait. Itās also Week 16!
The fantasy semi-finals will be happening throughout the weekend, with games kicking off over the next three days. We know youāll be busy, so we got your teams covered. Our rankers got together to find some of the top players theyāre higher on than consensus for this weekendās action. So, before you frantically set your lineup, check out what the guys have to say.
š¬Ā RB - DeāVon Achane (Dolphins) vs. Cowboys
The rookie has cooled off after averaging 31.8 points per game in his first four NFL contests playing at least 35% of the snaps. Over the last two games, his average has dropped to 10.7, and the fantasy industry is pushing him down the ranks.
My question is, why? Surely, no reasonable ranker expected Achane to continue at that unsustainable paceāregression was always inevitable. Hmm. It must be due to his reduced workload.Ā
Oh, wait. That hasnāt changed either. Achane averaged 15.3 opportunities per contest from Week 3 to Week 5. Over the last two games, he averaged 14.
So, the last two games really just provide us with a realistic floor for Achane when he doesnāt hit home-run bombs all game. However, we shouldnāt confuse that with his ability to deliver an elite-ceiling game.
For this reason, it is challenging for me to rank guys likeĀ Bijan Robinson,Ā Joe Mixon, andĀ Breece Hall ahead of Achane. They all have questions, and none have demonstrated the upside we have seen from Achane.
The matchup isnāt optimal against Dallas, but the recipe for beating the Cowboys' pass rush is to punch them in the face with the run game. The Bills reminded everyone of that in Week 15 whenĀ James Cook went nuclear for 36 fantasy points. The Dolphins have the fourth-highest team total on the slate in a game with massiveĀ shootout potential.
I have AchaneĀ 10 spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus in our flex rankings, making him a must-start as a top-20 play.
ā RB Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots) at Broncos
Once again, Iām the highest ranker on Elliott, who is my RB13. Gross, I know. But this is all about usage (and a little about matchup).
Elliott disappointed last week, but I expect No. 1 RBĀ Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) to miss another game, given that he didnāt practice at all last week and is yet to get in a session this week. Hence, Zeke.
Since Week 13, when Stevenson exited with an injury after 17 snaps, Elliott has an 83% snap rate, 74% rush share, 66% route rate, and 24% target share, which he has leveraged into 278 yards and a TD on 50 carries and 19 targets.
Plus, the Broncos are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.3 per game).
It could be a lot worse.
Who Else Does the Crew Like for Week 16?
šĀ The Christmas present everyone wanted.Ā Love/Hate for Week 16!
š²Ā The league fines Arthur Smith for āThe Headache Gameā.Ā Can we also fine him for the fantasy points we missed out on?
š¤Ā Stacking Dallas and Miami like everyone else?Ā How to differentiate your DFS builds.
š Battling for a berth to the fantasy championship?Ā Kendall is here to help.
š° Saturday NFL games?Ā An extra opportunity to cash in on anytime TD bets.
š¤Ā Speaking of extra opportunitiesā¦we have a loaded tracker of Saturday bets and Pickāem plays, all for FREE.
š„Ā Looking for the best bets for all the CFB action this weekend?Ā Check out our notes before heading to the books.
šļø Seeing the future. Predicting the first round of 2024 fantasy drafts.
šŖĀ Colts' RB1 logs another full practice.Ā He's back. Just in time.
šĀ Is the Browns resurgence legit? Is James Cook a true RB1?Ā Answers for ALL of your Week 16 questions.
š„Ā DeVonta Smith hanging out on a Friday.Ā Wait. Hanging out?! Heās not practicing??!?
ā Stefon Diggs ready for a bounceback?Ā The data suggests itās coming.
Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 16.
š„ Popular option: Minnesota Vikings
šĀ Facts:
With Nick Mullens at QB last week, the Vikings ran a slower offense than they have most of the year with a PPMOE of -.28 (average of -.11) while also having a slightly lower pass rate of 58%, which likely means slightly lower ceilings for the main Vikings receivers.
After having just a 17% route participation in week 14, Justin Jefferson had a 97% rate in week 15 and a 30% target share, both in line with expectations for the star wideout, and we should expect him to have slate-breaking upside, so long as Mullens can support it.
Since week 10, Jordan Addison has far surpassed teammate KJ Osborn in nearly every utilization category, including TPRR (16%/11%), Air Yards (31%/13%), and producing over 3x more fantasy points per game (12.4/3.8).
šĀ Stack Info (DraftKings)
š° Salary and projections:
- Combo 1Ā (Mullens/Jefferson/Hockenson): With a salary of $19,200, this lineup has a Median score of 47.9. This suggests a high level of expected performance, reflected in its substantial salary.
Ā - Combo 2Ā (Mullens/Jefferson/Addison): Priced at $19,400, it presents a close Median score of 46.1. The slight increase in salary compared to Combo 1 correlates with a very slight decrease in expected median performance.
Ā - Combo 3 (Mullens/Addison/Hockenson): The most affordable at $17,100, it shows a Median score of 41.6, the lowest of the three, which aligns with its lower price.
1ļøā£ Combo 1: Top Tier with Ownership
A strong contender for those looking to optimize for a high median performance with a good chance of a top finish and a high return on investment.
Suitable for those willing to allocate a significant portion of their budget for a robust combination.
2ļøā£ Combo 2: Strong Medians with Value
Presents a slight variation from Combo 1 with a small drop in the Median score and top finish probability.
However, its 3x% Return remains attractive, making it a valuable option for those looking for performance with a slight cost saving.
3ļøā£ Combo 3: Budget Choice with Upside
This combination is the most budget-conscious, offering a lower Median score but maintaining a competitive 3x% Return. It's an interesting choice for players who wish to save on salary while still seeking a decent chance for a high return.
The Vikings looked fine in the first full week with Mullens under center, with good volume (38 dropbacks) and a strong yards per attempt of 9.18. Assuming Jefferson is fully healthy, the Vikingsā stacks are looking solid.
However, there will be ownership here, so keep that in mind when you are thinking about how to build around these stacks.
The Cowboys are a Contrarian Option? Letās Talk
An all-encompassing Week 16 preview breaking down EVERY game with an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer ā is that something you might be interested in?
Well, good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 16ā¦
Itās been a rough few weeks for Justin Fields, who was stifled by Brian Floresā blitz-happy defense, rebounded a bit against the Lions, and then cratered against the Browns to a 13th percentile mark in EPA per play and a fourth percentile success rate.
But Fields now gets a pristine bounce-back spot against a Cardinals defense that has been disastrous against the pass, ranking 31st in EPA allowed per play and dead last in success rate. The Cardinalsā secondary is a major weakness, they canāt get pressure, and they donāt blitz. If youāre a mercurial downfield shottakerā¦ that's the combination you want to see.
But the good news doesnāt stop there. The Cardinals are also terrible against the run, ranking 29th in rushing success rate.
Given Fieldsā elite rushing ability, this is about as good a matchup as he can get. And remember, while Fields can add explosive fantasy value through the air, heās not all that special as a pure passer. His efficiency has been in line with Kenny Pickett's this year.
Luke Getsy has a history of forgetting about Fields' legs. But his memory has improved in recent weeks; he must be taking Gingko or something. Since returning from injury, Fields has had at least five designed rushes in every game, including a career-high 14 in Week 11.
And we should see plenty of overall rushing attempts against the Cardinalsā run funnel defense. Teams are averaging just a 55% pass rate against the Cardinals, with a -4% PROE. They are one of the biggest run funnels in the league.
With a combination of designed runs and explosive downfield passing potential, Fields is shaping up as a fantasy playoff hero.
If betting on his receivers to come along for the ride, efficiency is crucial. We canāt count on a ton of passing volume this week. Fortunately, D.J. Moore has been a highly efficient downfield receiver, posting 2.23 YPRR. Heās running hot with a 10.4 YPT, but heās also seeing a 28% target share with an elite 44% air yard shareā¦ so heās getting highly valuable looks. Moore is a WR1.
Cole Kmet has also been a strong target earner this year with a much shallower 5.7 aDOT. If the Bears limit passing volume, heāll be more affected than Moore. Still, heās in a great matchup, making him a TE1.
