🤓 Don't Forget This Upside TE
He is pretty cheap in drafts...
BREAKING NEWS: Aaron Rodgers is still on the Packers...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Matt Waldman's RSP:
- The Super Model LOVED this TE.
- What Now. Cooter's training tips!
- Dynast Stock Watch. The draft capital blues...
- 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Pick 4
- It's 4/12. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
The 2023 NFL draft class is loaded at the TE position. Dane Brugler of the Athletic has four prospects with a Round 1 grade in his draft guide – The Beast.
While our Rookie TE Super Model agrees that the class offers a lot of promise, it indicates there is one sneaky prospect from the 2022 class that would have been the No. 3 option in this year’s lauded group. Despite lower draft capital than we expect for Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave, this prospect STILL scored higher in the model, thanks to a superior receiving profile.
We know how hard it can be for rookie TEs to break out, and while Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer scored higher in the model and have a shot at top-12 finishes in 2023, this name is one to remember in fantasy drafts.
🔥 Greg Dulcich – Broncos
Denver selected Dulcich with the 80th pick in the third round last season. Unfortunately, a training camp injury kept him out until Week 6, but he quickly took over the lead TE role.
The former UCLA product averaged an 81% route participation in his 10 games – well above the 39% average for TEs taken in rounds one through three in the draft since 2011 (minimum 10 games played).
Dulcich graded out at the 80th percentile in the Super Model. He delivered an explosive reception on 33% of his collegiate targets (96th percentile), and his 13.5 career aDOT at UCLA was in the 100th percentile since the 2017 class.
We saw those traits translate to the next level as a rookie. No other TE with at least 250 routes had a higher aDOT (12.7) than Dulcich, and he ranked 10th in explosive target rate (20%).
Greg Dulcich has arrived 🔥
The second-year TE must take a step forward as a target earner. His 16% targets per route run (TPRR) was only average compared to other rookie TEs taken in the first three rounds since 2011. Dulcich was never a high-end target earner in college, with an 18% TPRR.
New Broncos coach Sean Payton has shown an ability to maximize athletic TEs like Jimmy Graham and Jared Cook in the past. Additionally, neither Jerry Jeudy nor Courtland Sutton has proven themselves to be target hogs, making Dulcich a fascinating name to consider as the TE15 off the board in Underdog drafts.
We might never see Dulcich develop into a 25% target share guy, but he was on pace for 697 yards and three TDs as a rookie. He could have significant upside, even as a 20-22% player, thanks to his playmaking ability. A top-12 finish is certainly in the range of outcomes, and if he suddenly blossoms as a target earner, he carries more upside than other dink-and-dunk options like Dalton Schultz and Cole Kmet, who go before him in drafts.
🤝 Everyone Deserves A Wing-Man
And that's why ours, Matt Waldman, is hooking you up...
It's such a good time of year. You can feel summer in your bones - probably making bouncing back from your busted bracket a little easier.
But best of all, the NFL draft is less than 3 weeks away.
Are you ready to scout your fantasy rookies? Because Matt Waldman is.
Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio will give you the same confidence about the rookies that they had walking into the combine (well, some of them).
Take advantage of...
- Detailed player profiles of at least 150 skill position prospects
- Position-specific rankings
- Cheat Sheets that include position-within-position sub-roles
and more, all for a few cups of coffee ($21.95).
Trust Matt Waldman as your wingman.
Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.
Survival Tip #7: Start Training NOW
It’s like they always say, success happens when preparation meets preparation. If you’re going to have the best chance of winning your league, training starts now, not in August.
Becoming familiar with rookies, current ADP, and NFL rumors is child’s play. Just reading up on all the current data isn’t enough.
If you truly want to prepare for a championship, it’s time to practice the foundational skills that matter most. Here’s everything you need to get through training week:
🥊 Trash Talking
Trash talk is a skill. Like any sport, you’ve got to get involved in some friendly sparring if you want to improve.
We’re not trying to hurt anyone, but we need to be ready for combat.
Determine which leaguemate is your strongest opponent in the trash talk arena, and start squaring up. Practice one-on-one first. Then, when you’re feeling confident, call upon more challengers by bringing the trash talk to the group chat.
🤝 Trade Training
Training to trade with your leaguemates is harder than it sounds, but practice makes perfect.
Start negotiating everything.
Your friends want to meet for dinner at 6:00? No, how about 6:05. Your wife wants you to cut back on a few leagues this season? No, how about you join two more. And most importantly, anytime you visit a friend, bring a snack pack pudding.
🔔 Knee-jerk Notifications
You should turn on notifications for your favorite fantasy and NFL analysts if you haven’t already. It’s time to train your brain to recognize these notifications at more than just face value.
Question what every notification could mean for you and your gameplay.
How does this affect your fantasy team? How does it affect your league? How does it affect the other players on a team’s depth chart? Can you leverage a trade based on this breaking news?
And most importantly, how does this affect Marlon Mack?
😕 Tinker Trouble
Indecisiveness is the root of all tinkering problems. When NFL Sunday hits, you don’t want to be the guy changing your lineup every five minutes until kickoff.
Pay attention to your daily habits now.
Are you the friend who never suggests a restaurant to eat at because you can’t decide on a favorite? Do you always let your friends pick the landing spot in Call of Duty because it’s too much pressure to pick something?
Stop being indecisive now so that you can confidently set your lineups in the future.
👨💻 Waiver Work
Start thinking in terms of FAAB immediately.
We all know that your league isn’t won on draft day. It’s your waiver moves throughout the season that truly build a championship team.
To prepare, get a feel for your league’s spending habits this offseason. Ask how much they’d be willing to spend on a nice cup of coffee. Ask them if they budget. You need to know what kind of spenders you’re up against.
But most importantly, pay attention to your own spending habits. You don’t want to blow all your FAAB on the first waiver wire hero.
❓ The Texans aren't going QB at No. 2? The rumor mill is churning.
🥇 The Falcons acquire a former first-rounder. Seems pretty cheap.
🏀 The ball is in who's court? Just tell us when it's done, lmao.
🎯 He has 177 targets in his first two seasons. Respect.
😆 The Draft is near. Marcas & Ian can't contain their excitement.
🎁 We can't unwrap him until 2024. Looks like it will be worth the wait.
😡 A star LB requests a trade? He is "fed up".
😬 Seems like yesterday. Life comes at you fast...
With free agency behind us and the NFL Draft ahead, Sam Wallace is here to take a look at a few players who saw significant shifts in their dynasty stock this offseason.
🚀 Dynasty Stock Up
🕹️ Kadarius Toney
There’s no question that Kadarius Toney is a human joystick.
Kadarius Toney juke is like something you see on Madden! 🤯🔥
But what do you get when you combine Toney’s skill set with the prowess of an Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes offense?
A fantasy cheat code with league-winning upside.
However, health is a valid concern. Toney has appeared in just 55% of possible games. But draft capital, talent, (small) sample size, and opportunity are all boxes checked in his favor.
Heading into Conference Championship Weekend, Dwain McFarland made the case for Toney with an exceptional, data-driven argument.
The second-year WR demonstrated an elite ability to demand targets as a rookie on limited routes, and that trend continued in year two with an elite 26% TPRR.
Kansas City lost their No. 1 wideout in JuJu Smith-Schuster (78 / 933 on 101 targets). Overall, they sit third in available targets (257) and fifth in available target share (41.8%).
Could Toney assume a larger role and earn targets at an elite clip? I’m willing to take that chance at his current price on KTC at WR41. That’s a steal for the Chiefs’ dynamic, 24-year-old WR1.
Toney could be fool’s gold for fantasy managers. It’s possible. But like so many others chasing the allure of the Chiefs offense, I’m ready to get hurt again.
📉 Dynasty Stock Down
💔 Tyler Allgeier
Listen, it’s not you. It’s your (lack of) draft capital.
Allgeier topped 200 carries and 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie. What’s not to like?
Day 3 draft capital.
It’s easy to chase last year's production, but we must keep historical context in mind. Day 3 RBs rarely find success in the NFL. When they are successful, they provide the perfect opportunity for dynasty managers to cash out.
KTC has Allgeier ranked as the dynasty RB27. That’s simply too high for a fifth-round pick who only beat out a depleted backfield on a bad team.
Eliot Crist published a 2023 NFL Mock Draft with the Falcons selecting none other than RB Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall.
Robinson is a generational prospect with little to no holes in his game, and the Falcons run first mentality would be a dream fantasy landing spot. The Falcons threw the ball 13.1% below expectations last season, the second-lowest PROE in football…The Falcons have dropped from +3300 to +650 to be the landing spot for Robinson.
Eliot Crist
Even if Atlanta doesn’t draft Robinson, they have Picks 44 & 75 in the first two days. Any addition to the backfield would tank whatever value Allgeier has.
A savvy dynasty manager would seek to flip Allgeier before the NFL Draft. History suggests his value has already peaked.
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist has put together a finely crafted first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his No. 4 pick to the Colts...
4.) Indianapolis Colts - QB, Will Levis, Kentucky, Sr.
- 6’4, 229lbs, 23 years old
- Rookie Rank: QB: 4, Superflex: 9
Will Levis is one of the most polarizing Quarterbacks in this year's draft, and no, not because he puts mayo in his coffee or because of his body transformation photo.
He has the broadest range of opinions on where he could wind up on draft day.
Consistently compared to Josh Allen, Levis stands at 6’3 and 230 lbs and is the second most athletic QB in the class and perhaps the most under-appreciated fantasy asset in the 2023 draft class.
All you need to have as an NFL fan in the year 2023 is YouTube TV NFL package, ESPN+, Amazon Prime, CBS, FOX, ABC and NBC
