🚂 Four Rookies Gaining Steam
Small WRs are all the rage...
Remember when targets were considered an advanced stat?
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Upside:
- NFL Draft Rankings Shake Up.
- Fantasy Fixers: Giants
- Was it Worth it? Buyer beware.
- Another big-name RB on the block?
- It's 3/10. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
It is NFL Draft rankings season, and analysts are making their post-combine adjustments. Yesterday, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com released his updated top 50 rankings based on everything he learned in Indianapolis last weekend.
Below are the four key takeaways from Jeremiah's latest ranks through a fantasy lens.
🔍 WR Jordan Addison | No. 9
Addison moved up two spots to No. 9 in the ranks despite weighing 173 pounds. In the old days, that weight would have caused the USC (and formerly Pitt) product to move down draft boards. However, players like DeVonta Smith have overcome slender builds in recent years, proving size isn't everything.
The early-draft declare dominated against top competition with a 26% target share and 2.42 receiving yards per team pass attempt — both high-end marks. He is a fluid athlete who doesn't depend on elite speed to win and can beat both press and man coverage. Addison has a production profile deserving of a first-round pick, and if he goes inside the top 15, it will solidify a strong fantasy outlook.
🔍 QB Anthony Richardson | No. 10
The quarterback board is tightening up, with Richardson climbing four spots to No. 10. He has special traits and smashed the combine with the best QB performance ever.
He hasn't proven he can be a consistent passer, but it appears more and more likely a team will spend a top-10 selection, and when evaluating all the QB-needy in the top 10 picks, it makes sense.
The Texans, Colts, Raiders, Falcons and Panthers would all likely provide immediate opportunities for Richardson to start. Even if he is a terrible passer, he has 750-yard upside as a rusher, which would give him 100-fantasy-point potential on the ground alone.
Cam Newton delivered 315 points with only 3,302 passing yards in 2017, and Justin Fields registered 309 points with 2,242 yards through the air in 2022. Richardson is currently coming off the board at pick 150 in Underdog drafts.
🔍 WR Zay Flowers | No. 24
Flowers climbed five spots after weighing in at 182 pounds, following in the footsteps of Addison. Like Addison, Flowers also registered a 26% career target share. While he isn't an early declare like Addison, he did become a major factor in Boston College's offense as a sophomore with a 25% target share.
While he is a smaller WR, Flowers isn't a gadget player that requires a tether to the line of scrimmage. He played outside for the majority of his snaps and garnered a 13-plus-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in three of four campaigns. Flowers has a nice blend of yards-after-the-catch and field-stretching abilities.
🔍 TE Sam LaPorta | No. 41
LaPorta was previously unranked, but after a strong showing in Indianapolis climbed into Jeremiah's top 50. The Iowa product was far more productive than Luke Musgrave and Darnell Washington. While those two put up astronomical combine performances, LaPorta wasn't far behind with the 77th-best RAS out of 1,020 TEs since 1987.
Where Musgrave and Washington were never able to gain much traction as target earners, LaPorta garnered a 23% target share as a junior and followed it up with 32% as a senior. He currently projects as a third-round pick in the NFL draft, which could be a steal.
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The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. LaMarca is here to take on our next project, the Giants.
👷♀️ Team Summary
I’m still trying to figure out how the Giants made the playoffs last season. By most measures, this was not a very good football team. In fact, New York allowed more points than they scored in 2022.
The Giants ranked 29th in overall team performance per Pro Football Focus (PFF), and they ranked in the bottom 10 teams on both sides of the ball. And despite being ranked just 21st per Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric (DVOA), the Giants somehow managed to win their Wild Card matchup over the Vikings.
Things finally came crashing back to Earth for the Giants in the divisional round, as they suffered a crushing 38-7 loss to the Eagles. Still, the fact that they even made it to that point seems like a minor miracle.
Now, they need to prove that 2022 wasn’t a fluke.
One thing the above metrics can't fully measure is just how good Brian Daboll is as a head coach. But he won the NFL's Coach of the Year award and seemingly got the best out of what little talent he had to work with on a weekly basis.
Heading into 2023, it seems that the primary pieces will be back.
Daboll will have stability at two major positions with Daniel Jones re-signed to a four-year, $160 million deal and Saquon Barkley returning on the franchise tag. With Daboll, Jones, and Barkley reunited, the trio will be looking for even more success in Year 2.
Can they pull it off?
Let’s dive into what the Giants should do this offseason to maximize their odds of returning to the playoffs next year or even winning the NFC East.
🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations
1. Add receiving help for Jones
After signing his recent extension this offseason, Jones now projects to be the starter in New York for the foreseeable future. We can ultimately debate whether or not he’s worth $40 million per year (I personally don’t think so), but the Giants have made their decision.
One reason the Giants likely felt comfortable shelling out the big bucks for Jones is that he produced with minimal supporting talent around him. By the end of last season, New York's pass-catching corps was arguably the worst in the league.
Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson went down with season-ending injuries, Kadarius Toney was traded to the Chiefs, and Kenny Golladay turned to dust just two years after the Giants signed him to a lucrative deal. That left Jones with a collection of misfits and castoffs as his primary receivers.
That said, New York appears to have found a steal in Isaiah Hodgins, who was claimed off waivers last year.
A former sixth-round pick by the Bills in 2021, Hodgins had a strong finish to last season by scoring in five of his final seven games. He was particularly impressive in their playoff victory over the Vikings, as Hodgins logged eight receptions for 105 yards and a score.
With Robinson projected to return from injury in 2023, he and Hodgins give the Giants at least some foundation at the wide receiver position. That said, the two are much better suited as complementary pieces than focal points of the offense.
New York needs to continue to add receiving help for Jones, but unfortunately, this free-agent wide receiver class is one of the weakest in years. Only two wide receivers are ranked among the top 50 free agents per The Athletic, and both come with significant question marks.
Instead, the Giants should be looking to add receiving help in the draft.
There’s no consensus top prospect at wide receiver in this rookie class, but Quentin Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN), and Zay Flowers are generally in the conversation for the top three.
Johnston is a prototypical alpha at 6’3 and 208 lbs. while Flowers fits the mold of players the Giants have gravitated towards in the past, like Toney and Robinson. As for JSN, he got some pretty strong praise from last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a BETTER WR than both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave
source?
Garrett Wilson himself
cc: @MattHarmon_BYB
Although Johntson and JSN might be gone by pick No. 26, Flowers and other wide receivers should be considered for the Giants.
In addition to the wide receiver position, New York could and should also explore options at tight end to add receiving help for Jones. Fortunately, this year's free agent class is better stocked at tight end than it is at wide receiver.
In particular, Mike Gesicki is someone who could be extremely undervalued. He wasn’t especially productive during his tenure with the Dolphins but remains an athletic marvel.
It was difficult for Gesicki to shine as a receiver in Miami. Early in his career, he suffered from mediocre QB play from Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick. And while Tua Tagovailoa was an upgrade, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill became the focal points of the passing offense in recent seasons.
Still, Gesicki's testing numbers were off the charts back at the 2018 NFL Combine. He scored in the 95th percentile in 40-yard dash time, 98th percentile in SPARQ-X, and 100th percentile in catch radius. The NFL is full of freak athletes, but Gesicki is simply a different breed.
Gesicki could be a prime candidate to break out in 2023 with a change of scenery.
What Else Can The Giants Afford?
👨🍳 Will he cook in a new kitchen? They could save, and trade rumors are swirling.
🛠 Just a remodel, not a rebuild. Who are the pillars?
😤 This WR is about to break out. It's going to be good.
🏆 This veteran WR could be a cap casualty. He wants to win.
🚀 An elite rookie TE? Only two have been better.
😒 Not funny, Adam. Hardy har har.
💦 Bryce Young surprised with his combine weight. What's the real number?
📢 Compensatory draft picks were announced. Wow, three extra third-rounders?
🖋 Is a surprise WR extension in the works? His March bonus is huge.
Sometimes the stars align for great fantasy seasons, but that doesn't always make them great bets for the next year. Chris Allen puts three names under the microscope and offers alternative options with better price tags.
Are These 2022 Overachievers Still Worth It? Prolly not…
Last week’s exercise about chasing hyped players was fun. Probabilistic reasoning should be a part of any drafter's process as the market sways with the latest news. But I only considered positive outcomes for some of 2022’s overachievers during the upcoming season. And, with free agency already heating up, we’ll need to cut through the hype and avoid over-drafting players based on their ’22 totals alone.
📉 Josh Jacobs: Draft Rank RB24, EOS Rank RB3
Betting against the previous year’s rushing king usually feels like an easy sell. I usually cast a side-eye at RBs of Josh Jacobs’s archetype. And, no, my concern isn’t born out of fear of injury like last season's ‘CMC vs. JT’ debate. Although, it’s not like there’s a positive track record for guys getting the volume necessary to rack up over 2,000 all-purpose yards.
Five RBs have registered 390+ touches in a single season over the last 10 years.
Their usage the following year:
* Christian McCaffrey 76 touches, 3 games
* Derrick Henry 237 touches, 8 gms
* DeMarco Murray 237 touches, 15 gms
* Le'Veon, holdout (311 touches in '19)
* Jacobs ? twitter.com/RapSheet/statu…
Adrian Peterson’s 2012 campaign (399 touches and 319 the following year) is the closest example to an effective season after handling so much work the prior year. Arian Foster (2010) and Steven Jackson (2010) also gave us usable volume, but seeing their names only reminds us of a mostly bygone era.
Regardless, let’s assume (hope) Jacobs makes it through all of ’23. He, more or less, did it in 2022. However, the Raiders’ bellcow would need to play at a similar level to keep up with his RB10 cost. Which, for him, would be another personal best.
Jacobs was top 12 in almost every metric, from Rush Yards Over Expected to Forced Missed Tackles (min. 90 carries). Unsurprisingly, he hit a three-year high for most. All except for TPRR. In a season where Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow missed a combined 15 games, Jacobs saw fewer targets on a per-route basis.
So even if he’s improved at the aspects he can control (e.g., fighting through contact, timing to get to the second level), his usage as a receiver is still (literally) out of his hands. And so is his team situation.
The Derek-Carr-sized void at QB isn’t as alarming, assuming Josh McDaniels can lure either of his former signal-callers (Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett) to Vegas. Both had a higher EPA per play than Carr last season, although Jimmy G had some help.
But the Raiders’ protection unit should be a source of uncertainty. Las Vegas returned three of five offensive line starters and was one of the most effective blocking groups in the league. Any drop in play from them affects the new quarterback, effectively capping Jacobs’s ceiling without a larger role on the offense.
So again, injuries due to workload aren’t something we can predict. And with the team tagging Jacobs, volume won’t be an issue. But given the team’s personnel turnover and his prior history of inefficiency, a step down from the last season’s heights must be in the range of outcomes.
Alternative Option(s): Rhamondre Stevenson (RB12), Najee Harris (RB14)
