đ„ł Happy Utilization Report Tuesday!
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we break down the MNF tilt between Cowboys and Chargers, Utilization Takeaways from Week 6, and more!
The best thing about the fantasy squad being 6-0 is the chance to go 7-0âŠ
In todayâs Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:
- The Cowboys take down the Chargers 20-17
- Sheesh Report: Baker Mayfield had a rough Sunday at the office
- Utilization Report: Adam Thielen WR1 szn
- QUICK HITTER: Early Week 7 Rankings Preview
- Huge injury updates on some of fantasyâs biggest stars
- Week 7 Waiver Wire: Now throw your hands in the (Michael) Mayer
- Itâs 10/17. Take it away, Ian HartitzâŠ
Monday night football blessed us with a competitive contest between the Cowboys and the Chargers, with the former squad doing just enough to take the three-point victory.
Your 222-word recap is sponsored by Octoberfest beers of all shapes and sizes:
đ€ This Cowboy is back
Dak Prescott put together arguably his best performance of the season, throwing for 272 yards and a TD (two if Michael Gallup had held onto a 35-yard dime) in addition to a sterling 7-40-1 rushing performance.
đ€ And he brought his partners with him
Tony Pollard (110 total yards) and CeeDee Lamb (7-117-0) finally rewarded their fantasy managers, while offseason additions Brandin Cooks (4-36-1) and Stephon Gilmore (game-sealing INT) also made their presence felt.
⥠A Charger Returns
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler (14-27-0 rushing, 4-35-0 receiving) posted middling production in his much-anticipated return; just realize he was tackled at the one-yard line on two separate drives. The utilization numbers were just fine; better days are surely ahead.
â A WR shows full health
While Chargers WR Joshua Palmer (groin) seemed iffy for Monday night, he wound up posting a team-high 100% route rate. His 4-60-0 receiving line would have been a lot bigger had an early 27-yard TD not been nullified by an illegal man downfield penalty. As for Quentin Johnston ⊠not great!
đ€ Another WR was oh-so-close
Speaking of missed opportunities: Chargers WR Keenan Allen's big day at the office (7-85-1) could have been even bigger had Justin Herbert not missed his No. 1 WR on what sure looked to be an open 50-yard TD. There was another chunk gain miss in there too. Overall: Quite a bit of meat left on the bone between this combo.
And with that the 2023 NFL regular season is 33% done. Lucky for you: There is still plenty of time to perfect the fantasy squad â letâs get after it!
You know those plays that donât show up in the box score, but you know they happened? Dropped passes? TDs nullified by a penalty? The sort of things that make fantasy managers jump out of their seats in anticipation, only to realize their player just barely missed their opportunity to rack up all kinds of points?
Well, those sort of near-miss happenings are called âSheesh!â moments around these parts â and Ian Hartitz is here to help fantasy managers cry all over again by breaking down all of Week 6âs close calls that didnât include a cigar.
đŹ Baker Mayfield has had better days at the office
Iâve enjoyed the âBuccaneers Country: Letâs Bakeâ era as much as the next guy, but Mayfield left a LOT of meat on the bone through the air during Tampa Bayâs 20-6 loss against the Lions.
Overall, Mayfield had four very unfortunate sheesh moments on Sunday:
A play-action-induced blown coverage led to Mike Evans getting all kinds of wide open on what seriously looked to be a likely 92-yard house call. One problem: Mayfieldâs pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage and wound up being intercepted instead.
Chris Godwin got free on a post for what had plenty of potential to be a 29-yard score, only for pressure and inaccuracy to lead to a low incomplete pass that gave the stud receiver zero chance to make a play..
No. 3 WR Trey Palmer broke open deep downfield for what should have been a 62-yard highlight TD. Mayfield had a clean pocket... but still sailed it long of a diving Palmer's out-stretched fingertips.
Palmer AGAIN got very open deep, Mayfield AGAIN had a fairly clean pocket, and fantasy managers AGAIN were forced to sheesh as the pass sailed long and incomplete. This one probably wouldn't have been a full 67-yard TD, but an accurate ball likely would have netted at least 40.
Itâs tough to overly blame Mayfield for the first sheesh since his interception was tipped at the line of scrimmage, but the latter three were truly rough to watch.
The 2018 NFL Draftâs No. 1 overall pick put far more good than bad on tape during the first month of the season; hereâs to hoping things will be less sheeshy for everyone involved moving forward.
đ Matthew Stafford should have had two extra TDs in his box score
A quick glance at Staffordâs 15/24, 226 yards and 1 TD box score would seemingly indicate a ho-hum efficient performance, but in reality the counting numbers should have been far bigger here.
Not once but twice (on separate drives mind you) did Stafford manage to deliver the football into his intended targetâs hands ⊠only for them to sheesh-ishly drop the potential TD. Both Puka Nacua (potential 16-yard score) and Tyler Higbee (6) are guilty, although the former admittedly deserves at least a little bit of slack for having to dive for the ball.
There were five additional HUGE drops that directly led to points not being put on the board:
- Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine let a potential 14-yard TD bounce off his hands in the left corner of the end zone on a drive that ended in a field goal.
- 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk let a deep downfield ball bounce off his hands on what had the potential to be a 66-yard house call considering Browns CB Denzel Ward fell down after attempting to contest the target.
- Patriots QB Mac Jones lofted a b-e-a-utiful deep ball down the left sideline that hit DeVante Parker in his bread basket. One problem: Parker dropped it, pretty much ending all chances for a late comeback bid.
- Vikings QB Kirk Cousins also displayed some pristine deep sideline accuracy on a shot play to rookie WR Jordan Addison, who let the ball bounce out of his grasp upon falling to the ground. Wouldnât have been a TD, but certainly 30-plus yards.
- Cowboys WR Michael Gallup got open deep down the middle for what looked to be a likely 35-yard score thanks to a PERFECT throw from Dak Prescott ⊠but he couldnât hang on to the absolute pearl of a pass. Yes: Replay showed that Gallup was indeed held prior to the pass arriving (no flag was thrown). Also yes: It goes in the book as a dropped TD. Sheesh.
- Texans TE Dalton Schultz also let a pass bounce off his hands in the end zone from the one-yard line, although it wasnât officially charged as a drop. The Sheesh Advisory Board is aware of the matter and is looking forward to hearing our sheesh-quest inquiry on the matter being heard.
đ„ Tuesdays finally have a reason to exist
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Utilization isnât just a piece of the puzzle â itâs the biggest doggone one out there. Lucky for you, a scholar, International Superstar/Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland is here with his biggest takeaways from Week 6. As a wise man once said: Itâs a great day to be great.
đ 1. Adam Thielen is a WR1 and there is reason to believe that sticks.
The 33-year-old averages 20.8 fantasy points per game and is the No. 3 WR in fantasy football. He is thriving, playing 72% of his routes from the slot, ranking 11th in target share (28%) and fourth in overall targets (59).
Forgive me if you have heard this from me before, but it bears repeating one last time: this isnât the first time we have seen former high-end target earners produce big fantasy numbers after moving into the slot later in their careers.
While Thielen might not be able to keep the 20-plus points per game pace going, he has a real shot at finishing inside the top 12. Age and offensive environments are legitimate risks that keep him in the SELL-HIGH conversation, but you shouldnât settle.
Outlook: Thielen UPGRADES to low-end WR1 status.
đ„Â 2. Michael Mayerâs role is growing and he looks good.
Mayer is the all-time leader for receptions, receiving yards, and TDs by a TE for Notre Dame. He broke out early in his collegiate career with a 24% target share as a sophomore, and as a junior, he improved that to a whopping 36%.
Mayer was the No. 1 option in the 2023 class early in the draft process, but he fell into the early second round, where the Raiders took him as the third TE off the board after Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid. While Kincaid and LaPorta offered more athleticism, neither had the target-earning profile Mayer boasted. Mayerâs career yards per team passing attempt (a vital data point) was No. 1 in the class at 2.66.
Mayerâs rookie season started slowly, with Austin Hooper serving as the starter over the first five games. However, in Week 5, we saw Mayer begin an upward trend in route participation (44%), and in Week 6, the rookie catapulted the veteran with a 67% mark.
Mayer finished Week 6 as the second-most targeted Raider and delivered 13 fantasy points to finish as the TE5. Targets will be challenging, with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers demanding significant looks, but Mayer has the type of upside profile we want to buy into. He is available in most leagues.
FAAB Recommendation: 5-10% (Higher in deep leagues or TE premium formats)
Outlook: Mayer UPGRADES to a high-end TE2 with UPSIDE.
đ 3. Drake London is who we thought he was.
The second-year WR got off to a rough start with two dud performances of WR87 and WR64 over the first three games. However, he has three top-24 finishes on the season and is the WR29 overall.
We knew the Falcons' offense would be challenging due to the run-heavy nature and QB questions, but we also know that London was a high-end target earner based on his college and rookie data. Ultimately, that shines through to help Londonâs fantasy managers regain confidence.
London averages 7.2 targets per game this season, and historically, that number lines up with his low-end WR3 fantasy production. Since 2011, WRs to average between six and eight targets have finished as the WR31 with 12.8 fantasy points per game.
Outlook: London UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status.
MORE key utilization notes you need to know
Itâs Tuesday, which means itâs officially Week 7. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 7 rankings set here!
đ Free agent RB visit szn. Lombardi Lenny truthers stand up!
đ„ Bad news on the 2023 future of one of the gameâs most exciting young QBs. Take my eyes but not his shoulder.
đ There are loads of WRs to panic about this season. He is not one.
đ Fantasy footballâs RB king is a bit banged up. But weâre saying thereâs a chance.
đ The Cowboys and Chargers had some problems to sort out before the game. Pow right in the kisser.
đ Key updates on banged-up AFC South QBs. Bye week at least helps here, but Thursday night turnaround makes this tough.
đ°ïž The 49ers are HURT, dog. At least nobody seems to be on the verge of missing TOO much time.
đ·Â Lions RB glass half empty: Out for a little bit. Lions RB glass half full: Trending in the right direction.
đ Take my eyes but not his right thumb. Down but not out.
â€ïž Great update on Bills RB Damien Harris. Love it!Â
You donât have much spare time these days to grind the wire as much as you would prefer. We get it. But you know what you do have? Ace Fantasy Life Waiver Wire analyst Chris Allen, who has some serious Week 7 advice to get off his chest on this fine Tuesday morning.
On the bright side, Week 6 gave us another chance to learn more about these teams.
The Vikings showed us what life after Justin Jefferson looked like (dark and painful). And Cleveland reminded the league how much of a problem they can give opposing offenses.
But injuries became the larger story as the day progressed.
We knew the Giants, Colts, and Browns would have their backup QBs playing on Sunday. However, Tyson Bagent (Bears), Brian Hoyer (Raiders), and Malik Willis (Titans) getting on the field wasnât part of anyoneâs plan. But with our thoughts about each offense shifting, letâs dig into the best pickups for Week 7 so we can churn our rosters and keep up with the ever-changing NFL landscape.
Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!
đ Jordan Mason, 49ers
San Francisco already hinted at Jordan Masonâs place on the RB totem pole last week.
Even during the first half against the Cowboys, while the game was still (mildly) competitive, Mason handled 20.0% of the teamâs carries with over a quarter of the RB totes in short-yardage situations. And then, when things got out of hand, Mason was the first ball carrier to earn a touch with a 42.9% snap rate.
When CMC left in Week 6, Mason took over the backfield again, but Elijah Mitchell was also active. Regardless, Mason hoarded 66.7% of the carries with 54.2% of the snaps. However, despite the team missing Deebo Samuel and Mason running a route on 56.3% of Brock Purdyâs dropbacks, the second-year RB didnât earn a target.
But be sure to stash Elijah Mitchell to see how the workload shakes out if McCaffrey misses any time.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 13%
đ Curtis Samuel, Commanders
Iâm still pining for one of Terry McLaurin or Jahan Dotson to take command of the Commandersâ passing attack. But Curtis Samuel has forced a troublesome committee.
- Target Share Rank: 3rd (Week 4), 1st (Week 5), 2nd (Week 6)
- Air Yard Share: 5th, 2nd, 2nd
- TPRR: 3rd, 1st, 2nd , 2nd
- Red-zone target share: 3rd, 2nd, 2nd
Samuel and McLaurin were the only pass-catchers to earn a look from Sam Howell in obvious passing situations. Meanwhile, Dotson mostly got a cardio workout with an 89.7% route rate. With Samuel playing in the coveted slot role, his week-to-week viability in fantasy has a brighter outlook than his teammates.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 10%
đŽââ ïž Michael Mayer, Raiders
I realize in a game where Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels were on opposite sides of the field, Jimmy Garoppolo leaving in an ambulance, and Brian Hoyer playing meaningful snaps, things are bound to look weird when itâs all over.
But Michael Mayer earning more targets than Davante Adams wasnât on my bingo card.
The rookie TEâs 27.3% TPRR was the highest on the squad against the Patriots. Plus, it was Mayerâs first game with a 100.0% route participation from inside the 10-yard line.
Vegas has struggled to find a third option in the passing game, with Hunter Renfrow and Austin Hooper underperforming. Meanwhile, Mayerâs routes, air yards and targets have steadily increased since Week 3. He hit a league-high 3.41 YPRR for the position in Week 6 and has a positive matchup against the Bears, which should buoy some of his fantasy value regardless of who has to start under center for the Raiders.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 13%
