Please don’t mention Tank & Puka again. It hurts too much…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

A little over a year ago, I wrote about two rookie WRs who were turning heads at training camp.

Both of them ended up being league winners.

If this sounds like I’m about to victory lap being early on Puka Nacua and Tank Dell, trust me, I’m not.

Despite identifying those two as sleeper candidates for the 2023 season, I barely acted on it throughout drafting season. I ended up with only a handful of shares of both players across my entire redraft portfolio.

Even writing about it now makes me want to puke.

In the case of Nacua and Dell, I had a healthy skepticism of the initial reports. As fantasy players, we are constantly bombarded with puff pieces and news that isn’t actionable, so it’s reasonable to proceed with caution.

But sometimes that skepticism can swing too far in the other direction, and you fail to leverage a real edge as a news hound (and I would consider anyone reading a fantasy newsletter in early June, a news hound).

This year, I’ve been trying to fine-tune my filter for these reports so I have more conviction on when I should actually be “adjusting the ranks” vs. ignoring fluff.

One simple heuristic I’ve been using to help me decipher whether there’s actual signal to a report is whether it’s already priced into the current market.

For example, when I hear about the Lions wanting to use Jahmyr Gibbs more as a receiver, my inclination isn’t to move him up my draft board. My reaction is:

No shit! He’s already a first-round pick! He better expand his pass catching role if he is going to pay off that price tag.

But where my ears actually perk up is when a piece of info clearly isn’t being accounted for by the market.

The other day I listened to Dave Canales talk about why his offense will be particularly friendly for tight ends, and it got me thinking about Ja'Tavion Sanders as a late-round dart who is completely free in drafts right now.

I’ll still need more confirmation that Sanders is progressing well at camp before I get aggressive, but I think it’s a good example of the type of situation I want to be ready to act on:

• Rookie player with a wide range of outcomes (like Dell and Nacua last year)
• Zero hype in drafts, so very little opportunity cost as a last-round pick
• An organization and offense with a ton of new personnel that widens the range of outcomes

Where we really can get into trouble with camp hype is double counting something that is already priced in, like Ladd McConkey—who is already a 6th round pick—looking great at camp.

TLDR: use the camp buzz to inform your very late-round selections and be skeptical of hype surrounding players who are already expensive picks.

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🙌 Come for the play. Stay for the reaction.

🤔 The Cowboys have interesting plans for one of their RBs. Worth a shot, I guess.

😡 “Your trade proposal has been declined.” Excuse me.

🎓️ Best graduation attendees ever. Lucky grads.

⚖️ Tampering rulings coming for the Falcons and Eagles. Update here.

📈 Early NFL power ranking index. Who is too high and too low?

The Vikings have a crazy amount of pass catching talent, but a new QB. Today, Ian Hartitz breaks down the relevant skill players at each position for the Vikings, along with his prediction for their 2024 season.

⚔️ Wide Receiver

• WR1: Justin Jefferson (WR5)
• WR2: Jordan Addison (WR36)
• WR3: Brandon Powell
• WR4: N'Keal Harry
• WR5: Trent Sherfield

The history of rookie QBs enabling high-end fantasy WRs is, well, not good. The No. 1 fantasy WR in PPR points per game has posted the following production from 41 offenses that have started a rookie QB for at least 10 games in a season since 2010:

• 5/41 finished in the top-12 (12%)
• 13/41 finished in the top-24 (32%)
• Average finish: WR33
• Median finish: WR35
• High: WR7
• Low: WR67

Of course, Justin Jefferson isn't your everyday No. 1 WR. The man has averaged 106 and 107 receiving yards per game over the past two seasons, emerging as the typical frontrunner on count-down lists of the game's very best players at the position.

Overall, only Tyreek Hill has averaged more yards per route run than Jefferson (2.67) since the latter WR entered the league back in 2020. The QB concerns here are real, but MAN, is it tough to wrap the mind around fading this sort of ascending talent.

A similar sentiment is true for Addison to a lesser extent (obviously). The 23rd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft made more than a few big plays as a rookie and suddenly faces less target competition than ever, with T.J. Hockenson potentially starting the season on the PUP list and K.J. Osborn now resides in New England.

The problem for Addison is the same as Jefferson: Potential for meh QB performance. Note that Addison caught seven TDs in eight games with Cousins under center … and three in nine games without.

Ultimately, Fantasy Life Projections have Jefferson dominating this passing game with 150 targets … while Addison gets 98. No other WR is expected to reach even 50; this looks far more like a Batman and Robin sort of setup as opposed to a legit 1.A/1.B situation without the guarantee of high-end QB play or passing volume.

✍️ Bottom Line

Jefferson should see enough volume to still return top-five goodness in fantasy land with his talent level; the only WRs I'll be drafting ahead of him are CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Meanwhile, Addison's WR38 (pick 68.5) price seems a bit steep from an overall standpoint; I've preferred drafting similarly-priced RBs like Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Rhamondre Stevenson at that point in drafts.