🐏 If You Like the Rams...
A bet only a TRUE DEGEN would make...
Why bet on a team to win in Week 2 when you could bet on it in the futures market???
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by The Touchdown Press:
- Leverage Opportunities: The Rams? REALLY???
- Player Props! We’re down on Dobbs (again).
- The HAMMER: Panthers +3, baby!
- Group Chat: Rhamondre StevenSZN!
- SNF: Keep an eye on the injuries.
- It’s 9/17. Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
Leverage.
It’s what you get when you use a crowbar to pull out nails or pry open a door.
It’s what you get when you borrow money or trade options.
It’s what you get when you fade the chalk in a large daily fantasy tournament.
And it’s what you get when you blackmail someone.
Oops, I meant: It’s what you get when you make a forward-looking bet predicated on something else also happening.
Let me give you an example.
🐋 Bengals to Win AFC North (+245, DraftKings)
On the recent “big picture” episode of the Betting Life podcast, Drew Dinsick (aka Whale Capper) mentioned that if you like the Bengals as favorites vs. the Ravens this week then you might be better off betting them to win their division — because if they win this week then they could be AFC North frontrunners for the rest of the season.
Why bet Bengals against the spread at -110 odds when you can bet Bengals AFC North at +245?
The fundamental idea of sports betting leverage is this: “If you are bullish on a specific thesis, don’t put your money in a traditional market. Instead, invest in an alternative market that offers significantly more upside in case you’re right.”
With that in mind here are three leverage opportunities you might want to entertain as we head into Week 2.
🤑 Jaguars to Win AFC Championship (+1400, PointsBet)
If you like the Jaguars to beat the Chiefs (+160), why not bet them to win the AFC at much longer odds?
If they beat the Chiefs this weekend, they will be 2-0, the Chiefs will be 0-2, and they’ll have the head-to-head tiebreaker. On top of that, the Bills and Bengals both lost in Week 1, and the Jets lost QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles).
Given that they play in the weak AFC South, the Jaguars could legitimately earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they win in Week 2. The path will at least be clear for them.
As the No. 1 seed, they would get a bye on Super Wild Card Weekend, they’d have a relatively soft matchup in the Divisional Round, and then they’d get to host the AFC Championship in Jacksonville.
With that kind of setup, they could win the AFC.
💸 Patriots to Win AFC East (+950, Caesars)
If you like the Patriots at home to upset the Dolphins as +130 underdogs (also at Caesars), then maybe just take a position on them to win the division.
The Patriots looked good in Week 1. Even though they lost, I’d argue that they outplayed the Eagles. And if they win in Week 2 against the Dolphins — who were offensively amazing last week — that could mean that the Patriots are actually a good football team, and they’d likely be tied for first.
Bills QB Josh Allen is prone to turnovers. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is prone to injuries. Jets QB Zach Wilson is prone to atrocities. With a strong defense and under the right circumstances, the Patriots could get key wins against all three of their divisional opponents.
At +950 odds, the Patriots have a 9.5% implied probability to win the AFC East. If you think they’re going to beat the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football, you probably also think their current odds to win the division are out of line with reality.
🐏 Rams to Win NFC (+6000, FanDuel) or NFC West (+1100, DraftKings)
Just hear me out. I’m not saying you should bet on this.
But if you like the Rams at +280 (PointsBet) hosting the 49ers, then you should consider leverage opportunities.
Maybe you think, “The Rams have an elite coach, a good QB, and an underrated defense: They’re a real threat to the 49ers, who are being overvalued because of their Week 1 performance against the Steelers.”
If you think that, then why wouldn’t you bet on them to win the division? If the Rams win this week, they’ll be 2-0 with back-to-back victories over the two NFC West teams that made the playoffs last year.
But why stop there? If the Rams — who won the Super Bowl 18 months ago and have HC Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and DT Aaron Donald — are good enough to beat out the 49ers for the NFC West … then why wouldn’t they be good enough to win the NFC?
Again, I’m not saying that you should actually make this bet. This is the kind of disgusting bet that only a true degenerate would make. (Sidenote: I have a bet on the Rams to win the NFC. It’s in our 100% FREE bet tracker.) I’m saying that if you happen to be bullish on the Rams vs. the 49ers then this is a reasonable-ish way to maximize the potential payoff of your enthusiasm.
For everything you need for Week 2 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with his top five player props. Here are a few of his favorites, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
🚀 Cam Akers Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-110, FanDuel)
Akers played behind RB Kyren Williams in Week 1 (53 snaps vs. 28), and he saw all but four of his 22 carries in the second half when the Rams were grinding down the clock to shorten the game against the Seahawks.
He converted those 22 carries into a hilariously poor 29-yard rushing.
But here’s what I think we should be focusing on: He had a league-high 22 carries. In his past eight games (going back to Week 12 last year), he has averaged 72.3 yards on 16.8 carries and gone over the total of 30.5 yards in every game but one — last week.
If Akers has even half of the 22 carries he saw last week, he should be able to hit the over.
My Projection: 43.6
Cutoff: 37.5
👎 Kylen Granson Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
It’s the most Freedman thing ever for me to bet the under on a low receiving total for a rotational TE on a team with a rookie running QB.
This is how I find my happiness.
I will say in full disclosure that I can see how the over hits: The Texans are without their primary TE defenders in SS Jimmie Ward (hip) and FS Jalen Pitre (chest), both of whom were declared out on Friday.
But I’m skeptical that Granson will get the target volume to exploit what could be a friendly matchup.
I think this line is inflated because last week he got six targets, which he turned into 39 yards — but he got that usage and production on a career-high 61% snap rate, and the law of gravity suggests that he might have more of an even split with No. 2 TE Mo Alie-Cox this week.
My Projection: 21.1
Cutoff: 23.5
👇 Joshua Dobbs Under 185.5 Passing Yards (-120, PointsBet)
I “technically” have this projected to the over. Modeling systems tend to be conservative, so it’s hard for them to capture outliers, and I think Dobbs is an outlier.
Last week, Dobbs had 30 passes but just 4.4 yards per attempt. For his career, he has averaged 5.1.
He has a capped ceiling both as an individual player and as an operator of the offense, which is intentionally trying to limit the damage he can do.
So when Dobbs does drop back to pass, I doubt he’ll be efficient.
When the Cardinals are on offense, I expect them to lean on RB James Conner and the ground attack in an attempt to control the ball and shorten the game.
And I’m skeptical that the Cardinals will have the ball often. Even though the Giants suffered a 40-0 blowout loss last week, they are a class above the Cardinals and should be able to extend drives against a talent-depleted defense with their running and short-passing game.
Finally, Dobbs is always at risk of getting benched for rookie QB Clayton Tune.
If Dobbs goes over, I think he’ll barely do it. If he goes under, he could have around 100 yards in a realistic worst-case scenario — and that is actually realistic, given that he had just 132 yards passing last week.
My Projection: 192.5
Cutoff: 170.5
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🤝 Freakonomics meets NFL: Subpar workplace conditions will continue until morale improves.
📺 Last-minute bets, anyone? The team is going live to provide MORE ACTION.
⚾️ And now something for the people who like … baseball? Imagine betting the most obvious thing in the world and actually winning.
👋 Another sportsbook launches — but this one might be different? Say hello to Prime Sports!
🕶️ Speaking of “Prime,” Coach Sanders still looks like a million bucks. Look good, feel good, play good, they pay good.
✍️ A fantastic article from our friends at Unabated! Nuanced thoughts on sports betting services that sell picks.
✖️ An accurate and brief synopsis of the week in #GamblingTwitter: Do we still call these things “tweets”?
🤔 If I had known about this trend, I wouldn’t have bet Bills -9 this week. We’re both being sarcastic.
🐬 A bet against QB Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday Night Football. Real degenerates always bet the under.
🎧 One of the best podcasts you can listen to this week! A sports betting legend talks about his strategy and career.
One of the best parts about sports betting is the communal aspect. If you have a group of friends that all bet on the NFL, you can almost guarantee that they have a group chat where they’re discussing their bets throughout the week.
We’re no different here at Fantasy Life, and Geoff Ulrich is here with the bets from OUR group chat…
Welcome to Week 2 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I elicit information from my Fantasy Life employees about their leans. It’s really a selfish endeavor as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers.
Anyways, back to the bets. A couple of these were given to me with some great info alongside them. Some were merely degenerate suggestions. We’ll break them all down below and see how many are worth playing for Week 2.
⬆️ Jordan Likes: Tee Higgins over 60.5 yards (-110, BetMGM)
Honestly, this one makes plenty of sense. As Jordan laid out in the chat, the Ravens’ secondary is in shambles. SHAMBLES.
No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey is out, S Marcus Williams is out and Joe Burrow is pissed (I’m assuming). The goose egg from Week 1 by Higgins was shocking but he’s in a great spot to bounceback.
He started slowly last year as well but rebounded with a 71-yard, 1-touchdown game against Pittsburgh in week 2.
History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme - Mark Twain (Jordan)
👆 Matt L. Likes: Rhamondre Stevenson 80+ yards, 2+ TDs (+1550 BetMGM)
Matt has been killing it in the bet tracker this year, so when he pipes up we should probably listen.
And all joking aside, I can see this happening.
I laid out the case for Stevenson in the Sunday Night Betting Breakdown for week 2 to go over his rushing prop as the Dolphins’ rush defense got crushed in week 1. He still saw a bulk of the snaps and carries in Week 1 despite ceding some work to No. 2 RB Ezekiel Elliott.
Stevenson found the endzone twice on just one occasion last year but he did go over 100 yards rushing twice. You can currently get +1550 on a Rhamondre 80+ yard rushing game with 2 TDs over at BetMGM.
🧀 Jake Likes: AJ Dillon over 18.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)
Leave it to our resident Improv/TikTok master and all-around hilarious person Jake Trowbridge to give the most well-reasoned pick.
“I’m in on AJ Dillon over 18.5 rec yards
He avg 34 rec yards in the games Aaron Jones has missed”
I mean, do I even need to write anything else? The Packers won’t have a true WR1 either if Christian Watson sits out as well, so expect Dillon to work diligently in the passing game — an area he has improved in since coming into the league.
🏃 Geoff/Matt F. Likes: Geno Smith over 12.5 rushing yards (-120, BetMGM)
Alright, since I got no pushback from Matthew Freedman on our prop pod this week when I brought this up I’ll assume we’re good to include him on this one too. Smith is a more mobile QB than people give him credit for and went over 20 yards rushing eight times last year.
The Lions brought great pressure last week and forced Patrick Mahomes into six scrambles. Smith is missing two starting tackles this week and with the Seahawks sitting as 4.5-point underdogs, he could also see some prevent defense at the end of this game (aka, openings for cheap rush yards).
Our projections like this one too with Smith having an 18.2-rush yard projection for Week 2.
More Bets from the Betting Life Group Chat
The Week 2 SNF nightcap features an AFC East matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots, and Geoff Ulrich is here to break it down from a betting angle…
The Patriots and Dolphins come into week 2 on opposite ends of the feel-good spectrum.
New England failed to pull off the comeback in Week 1, but they did land a couple of morale victories that may help them down the road.
The 316-3-1 line produced by Mac Jones in Week 1 rolls off the tongue nicely, but it’s also not as impressive to look at when you consider he achieved this on 54 pass attempts and 5.9 yards per attempt. New England’s O-Line also allowed the second most QB pressures against in week 1.
After the Patriots’ defense held Jalen Hurts to just 5.15 yards per attempt last week and pressured him 18 times, this game makes for the perfect test for Tua Tagovailoa (466-3-1, Week 1) who is currently hovering at +700 on BetMGM in MVP award futures — and remains second in odds behind only Patrick Mahomes (+600).
We’re expecting a close, divisional battle but how will this one work out? We’ll go through all the angles below...
🐬 Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-120, BetMGM)
Total: 46.5
Moneylines: Dolphins -145 / Patriots +120
This line opened at -2.5/+2.5 and has hovered at -3.0/+3.0 for long periods, but it’s rarely moved out of this 0.5-point range.
For his career, Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0 ATS against New England. However, the Dolphins also played a game in the PST time zone last week and teams traveling cross country (PST to EST) don’t typically fare that well the ensuing week.
Per Betlabs, teams that played in the PST and then moved to EST the following week are 43-49-2 ATS over the last 20 years.
From an injury perspective, Edge Jaelan Phillips hurt his back in practice on Friday and is now questionable.
Tackle Terron Armstead is also questionable after getting in a couple of limited practices. Armstead is one of the best Tackles in the league and his presence would be a massive boost.
The Patriots also have some O-Line issues of their own.
Offensive tackle Trent Brown and guard Sidy Sow both missed practice all week (concussion) but are listed as questionable. CB Jonathan Jones (ankle) also missed practice Friday and is questionable. These are huge names for the Patriots as Brown and Sow played every snap in week 1 and Jones played 80% of the snaps.
The difference between 2.5/3.0 feels like everything if you’re betting on this game. Miami is the better side but the Patriots match up well against Miami in some key areas.
Assuming Terron Armstead is active, I’d give a slight lean to Dolphins -2.5. The number may move on Armstead’s availability but it does look like he’s trending towards playing.
If the number moves to 3.0 and Armstead isn’t active there is likely a good argument just to take the points with the Patriots or just stay away.
