Nice try, Bill…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

I knew Bill Belichick was up to something.

Last week I predicted that he’d try to upstage the NFL Draft after getting spurned by the league on a next coaching gig.

Well, I’m counting that prognostication as “directionally accurate” after he announced yesterday that he’d be joining Pat McAfee as a co-host for their Draft Spectacular next Thursday night:

We're so INCREDIBLY PUMPED Coach

"I'm looking forward to it and Draft Weekend is always an exciting time..

It'll be fun to be with you guys and get your expertise" ~ Bill Belichick#PMSLive

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow)
Apr 17, 2024

It was convenient timing for the announcement, which came just hours after ESPN dropped an illuminating piece about Belichick’s failed job hunt with the Atlanta Falcons. Et tu, Robert Kraft?

It’ll be fascinating to see if McAfee can coax anything interesting out of him during that draft.

On the show, Bill promised to “give a little insight into maybe what the conversations will be in those rounds…I’ve made a few trades.”

I’m skeptical, but at the very least it’s a funny pairing. McAfee is one of the most electric broadcasters going, while Belichick seems to loath the concept of verbal communication altogether. At least McAfee has plenty of practice co-hosting alongside the always stoic A.J. Hawk.

If I were advising Bill, I’d tell him to lean into the comedic prop angle. During the COVID year, his dog stole the show on Draft Night.

Maybe do something zany with those Lombardi trophies he was flexing on the show yesterday?

Play air guitar with one? Stick one down the shirt and pretend like the football is your head? I’m just spit-balling, I’m open to other ideas.

Anything will help distract from the fact that not a single team in the league wanted to hire you after 333 career victories and six Super Bowls with the Patriots.

🏀 The Road to the Finals Starts Here

NBA Playoff Tickets Are PUNCHED!

The NBA Playoffs tip off this weekend! It's time to turn up the intensity and witness basketball's elite go toe-to-toe. Punch your tickets now with BetMGM and experience the adrenaline of the NBA Playoffs!

From buzzer-beaters that defy odds to defensive stands that defy logic, every game is a sweat!!! Not looking to sweat? BetMGM is offering new users up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if your first bet doesn't hit!

That's right, just place your first bet and BetMGM will pay you back in bonus bets up to $1,500 if you don’t win! Score big with BetMGM!

Join The King of Sportsbooks today! Sign up for BetMGM here!

📺 Everything you need to know about the incoming RB class. Ian brings on an expert.

📊 Who is the best incoming rookie for fantasy football? Dwain’s full set of rookie rankings is live.

⚡️ The Chargers add another RB. What’s Jim Harbaugh’s fascination with former Ravens?!

💍 How Jason Kelce lost his ring. Lmao, very on-brand.

🔮 Rome Odunze was on Puka Nacua before us. Could have used this last summer, sir.

📈 Movement for draft pick numbers. Those Texas WRs are interesting.

⛑️ An update to the Browns helmets. I know you were dying to know.

We sent Dwain McFarland back inside the lab to evaluate the incoming class of rookie RBs. Of course, he came up with a model so great it couldn’t just be called an ‘RB model.’

Presenting: Fantasy Life’s new Rookie RB Super Model.

🥉 Tier 3 – Committee Traits With Lower Expected Draft Capital But RB2 to RB3 Upside

🐯 Will Shipley | Clemson

• RB Super Model: 28th percentile
• Age: 22.1
• Height: 5-foot-11
• Weight: 205

💪 Prospect Summary

Shipley’s pedigree and traits scream RB1 upside, but his production profile leaves you scratching your head. He is the most versatile back in the class and offers massive potential as a pass catcher if he further develops with NFL coaching.

🏋️ Pedigree and Athleticism

• Program Quality Index: 43rd percentile
• NFL Mock Drafts: Round 4
• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 5 of 5 stars (32 overall, RB2)
• Speed Score Index: 66th percentile

Shipley had offers from four of the nation's top five RB pedigree programs: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Penn State. He didn’t run at the NFL Combine but put on a show at the Clemson Pro Day, registering a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash.

👀 Production and Film

• Adjusted Career YPTA Index: 49th percentile
• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 49th percentile
• Career Composite PFF Grade Index: 54th percentile
• NFL.com Prospect Grade Index: 45th percentile

Shipley earned immediate playing time as a 19-year-old freshman, handling 43% of the designed rushing attempts and posting a 34% route participation. He was on his way to a dominating collegiate career, with a 1.51 YPTA that season, but ultimately, his workload never expanded much.

His career PFF Run Grade came in at the 52nd percentile. Shipley didn’t demonstrate high-end make-you-miss ability, power or home-run hitting potential.

• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.21 (37th percentile)
• Yards after contact: 3.14 (33rd percentile)
• Explosive rush rate: 16% (56th percentile)

Maybe my expectations were too high, but I hoped for more from Shipley’s receiving profile. His 9% career target share is the second-highest for a Power 5 back in the class but falls in the 48th percentile since 2017. Still, Matt Waldman, creator of the esteemed Rookie Scouting Portfolio, graded his route-running ability as starter-caliber.

💥 Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: RB62, Round 18
• Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB10, Pick 33

The Super Model sees Shipley as underdrafted in best-ball and rookie formats alike. If you are looking for a proper home-run profile late in drafts, Shipley is that prospect at RB.

🦆 Bucky Irving | Oregon

• RB Super Model: 24th percentile
• Age: 22.1
• Height: 5-foot-9
• Weight: 192

💪 Prospect Summary

Irving was a solid dual-threat producer in college but was more potent as a runner than a receiver. With his limited size and speed, those things will likely need to flip to give him a chance to survive in the NFL. Irving’s best fit is likely as a change-of-pace or two-minute offense RB.

🏋️ Pedigree and Athleticism

• Program Quality Index: 34th percentile
• NFL Mock Drafts: Round 4
• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars (340 overall, RB23)
• Speed Score Index: 18th percentile

Irving didn’t get offers from the top RB pedigree schools but had double-digit Power 5 offers, including Michigan. At the NFL Combine, he ran a 4.55 in the 40-yard dash. While the time in itself isn’t horrible, at only 192 pounds, it translates to a Speed Score of 89.6–the third-worst in the database. 

👀 Production and Film

• Adjusted Career YPTA Index: 56th percentile
• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 33rd percentile
• Career Composite PFF Grade Index: 75th percentile
• NFL.com Prospect Grade Index: 33rd percentile

Irving immediately contributed as a freshman, garnering 28% of the Golden Gophers' designed rushing attempts. The following year, he transferred to Oregon, where in his final two seasons, he accounted for 33% and 45% totes and posted route participations of 40% and 60%.

Irving upped his YPTA each year (1.21, 1.77 and 2.09) and while he never posted an elite season, his 56th percentile career YPTA of 1.74 ranks 52nd in the database of 215 prospects. He never became a high-end TD producer but was a high-quality runner with the fifth-best career PFF Run Grade (81st percentile) in the class and ranked sixth in receiving grade (65th percentile).

While Irving might not be fast, he was one of the more elusive RBs in the database with a 0.36 missed forced tackles rate, which fell in the 89th percentile. When you add it all up, you get a 75th percentile career composite PFF grade–the second-best mark for a Power 5 back in the class behind Jonathon Brooks.

Since 2017, here are the closest comps to Irving based on weight, Speed Score, production and NFL.com grade:

• Kyren Williams
• Tyler Badie
• Jaret Patterson

💥 Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: RB56, Round 13
• Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB7, Pick 28

The model prefers Shipley over Bucky Irving thanks to pedigree, athleticism and film. However, the masses see it differently in best-ball and rookie drafts.