🗓 It's Final Four Weekend!
Can anyone knock off UConn?
Huskies can’t be comfortable in the Arizona heat, can they?
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Poker Now.
MLB Friday: Pitching to reign supreme in Milwaukee?
The Masters: Some unconventional prep for a previous champ.
Final Four: It’s UConn’s world; we’re just living in it.
It’s 4/5. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
After a small slate on Thursday, MLB is back in full force on Friday. All 30 teams are scheduled to be in action, with games happening all throughout the day. While other sports may grab more headlines, it comforts me to know that baseball is always there when I need it.
Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Friday’s slate.
💰 Giants ML vs. Padres (-115; Caesars)
We’ve got an NL West rivalry game between two squads hoping to qualify for the postseason. Neither team has gotten off to a particularly good start this year – that will happen when you play the Dodgers – but there’s optimism that both squads can turn things around.
The opening contest for their three-game series on Friday features a quality pitching matchup between Dylan Cease and Jordan Hicks. Cease was a big offseason addition for the Padres, finishing second in the AL Cy Young voting back in 2022. However, he’s struggled to live up to expectations since then. He labored to a 4.58 ERA in his final year with the White Sox, and he posted a 3.86 ERA in his Padres debut.
Hicks has spent most of his career coming out of the bullpen, but he impressed as a starter in his first game with the Giants. He pitched five scoreless innings, racking up six strikeouts and a 2.06 FIP. In terms of Stuff+, he currently ranks third among all pitchers with at least five innings pitched, trailing only Cristian Javier and Jared Jones.
With this game taking place in San Francisco, I give the Giants the edge. I’d play them up to -125.
💰 Mariners-Brewers F5 Under 4.0 runs (-110; BetMGM)
Offense should be at a premium in this one, with both teams sending ace-caliber starting pitchers to the mound. Freddy Peralta was dominant in his first start of the year, striking out eight batters in six innings vs. the Mets. He allowed just one run, finishing with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.44 xERA.
Logan Gilbert was equally impressive for the Mariners. The former top prospect pitched seven innings of one-run ball vs. the Red Sox, resulting in a 1.29 ERA and a 1.69 xERA.
Overall, both pitchers posted a Stuff+ of at least 113, putting them well above average.
Additionally, neither of these offenses has looked particularly imposing to start the year. The Mariners are 28th in wRC+ against right-handers, and while the Brewers are 11th, they’ve thrived with an unsustainable .356 BABIP. They’re merely 19th in terms of ISO, and it’s going to be tough to string together a bunch of hits vs. Gilbert.
You could choose to play the full game Under 8.0 at -115, but I’d rather leave the bullpens out of the equation. Under 4.0 for the first five innings is available at BetMGM, and that’s an excellent price tag.
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🥊 Put the kids to bed, it’s Fight Night! Preview and Picks for Allen vs. Curtis part deux.
🏀 The NBA playoffs inch closer. Best bets for Friday’s slate.
🏒 Drop the gloves! The Yankees and Devils kick off a rivalry game with a good old-fashioned brawl.
🦖 Fading teams that are trying to lose seems like a good idea. The Raptors have covered just three times in their past 15 games.
❌ That’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Tiger Woods with some unusual preparation for the Masters.
🐺 The public rides with the wolfpack. NC State is a very popular bet for the Final Four.
📝 New team, new deal. The Texans have restructured Stefon Diggs’ contract for the upcoming season.
🤕 Thought the Marlins’ start couldn’t get worse? Think again. One of the best young pitchers in baseball will miss the whole season.
We’re down to the final three games of the college basketball season, starting with the Final Four on Saturday. The games kick off with NC State vs. Purdue at 6:09 p.m. ET and wrap up with Alabama vs. UCONN at 8:49. Kody Malstrom breaks down his favorite play for the penultimate slate of the season…
🐺 (4) Alabama vs. (1) UConn (-11.5) (-105; Caesars)
Astonishingly, UConn’s offense has been running cold in the tournament (per their season averages) despite continuing to blow out their opponents. Even when the jumpers don't fall, UConn still generates high-quality looks with their aggressiveness on the boards for second-chance opportunities and high percentage looks near the rim.
That spells potential doom for a Crimson Tide defense that ranks 105th in AdjD, 245th in Defensive Rebounding Rate, and 327th in Opposing Free Throw Rate. Even if UConn runs cold again, they should have no issue generating second chances and getting fouled for extra scoring opportunities at the free-throw line.
On the other side of the court, UConn is equipped to slow down Alabama’s offensive attack that revolves around fast-paced 3-point attempts and looks at the rim. Much like Purdue with Zach Edey, the Huskies’ Donovan Clingan serves as an anchor down low, allowing the rest of the Huskies to stretch out and smother opposing looks at the perimeter.
Alabama lives and dies by the 3-pointer and is now facing a defense that can contest their looks over the full 40 minutes. UConn ranks 28th in Opposing 3-point Completion Percentage (at just 30.9%), and they’re third in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage at 44.1%.
Their ability to smother looks on the perimeter while Clingan anchors the interior has played a large part in their fourth-placed mark in AdjD. Expect Alabama’s offense to fall back to reality in a big way and have trouble staying with UConn’s scoring pace as they consistently generate quality looks.
I played UConn at -10.5 and would take them up to -12.
