Alexa, how do I get my draft picks back?

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, we're asking for your feedback.

• Bud Light Six Pack Recap
• We want to hear from you!
• MNF Game Preview. Can Herbert keep it up?
• OverReaction Monday. New Fantasy Stars.
• Betting First Look. Big Favorites in Dallas
• It’s 12/26. Take it away, Jordan Fiegleman…

Christmas has come and gone, but the Russell Wilson memes are here to stay. 

From in-flight high-knees to an in-home bathroom tracker and beyond, Wilson is the gift that keeps on giving… well on social media at least. 

Bro what is this guy doing?

— Nicky The Good (@nickythegood)
Dec 26, 2022

In their embarrassing 51-14 loss to the dejected Rams, Wilson finished 15/27 for 214 yards with 1 TD and 3 interceptions. A lowly 11.2 fantasy points. 

For the Broncos, things are looking downright horrendous. They’re currently last in the AFC West at 4-11 and have been eliminated from playoff contention. To make matters worse, there is no “light” at the end of the tunnel for this season, or for the franchise realistically. 

To recount, this is what the Broncos gave up in exchange for the pleasure that is having Wilson lead your locker room. 

Two 1st round picks
Two 2nd round picks
A 5th round pick
3 players
$165 million dollars guaranteed.

What the Broncos gave up for Russell Wilson.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 26, 2022

🐎 What do you do if you're the Broncos? What can you do? 

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Cooterdoodle is here to share her six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Cooter...

🍺 1. Aaron Jones gets lost in Packers win

Much like Kevin McCallister's fate in the 1990s film Home Alone, it felt like Aaron Jones was mistakenly left behind in Green Bay as his team traveled to Miami on Sunday. While his usage has been frustratingly inconsistent all season, Jones' six lonely carries from Week 16 were his second-lowest on the year. Sure, the Packers pulled off the win, but six carries for 25 yards? Bah Humbug.

The lack of Aaron Jones here in the red zone is ruining Christmas.

— Chris Towers Is In Football Season (@CTowersCBS)
Dec 25, 2022

🍺 2. Experience... doesn't always matter?

I'll be honest, I'm writing this during the 3rd quarter because I'm not so sure I can stomach much more of this TB @ ARI game. With 11 minutes left in the 3rd, Tom Brady and Trace McSorley's stats look eerily similar for two QBs with such strikingly opposite experiences in the NFL.

In his 331st career start, Brady currently has 13 of 22 passes completed for 91 yards with 1 INT. In his 1st career start, McSorley currently has 12 of 23 passes completed for 87 yards and 1 fumble. It's 6-6 with no TDs in sight. You guys watch the rest of the game for me. I don't deserve this. I need to crack open this six-pack, asap. (Editor’s note: Brady pulled off another last minute win in overtime, but I don’t want to be the one to tell her.)

I was way too good of a girl this year to have to watch Bucs-Cardinals smh

— Jeanna Kelley (@jeannathomas)
Dec 26, 2022

🍺 3. Stop trying to make Marcedes Lewis happen

Marcedes Lewis is so fetch! With only seven total targets this season, Aaron Rodgers still managed to make Lewis relevant in Week 16 with 2 receptions for 32 yards and 1 TD. The 38-year-old TE was the only pass catcher in Green Bay to score on Sunday and fans noticed the veteran connection. Age is just a number anyways, right?

Mercedes Lewis has been playing since the Bush administration.

— Felix Sharpe (@sharpereview)
Dec 25, 2022

🍺 4. Baker Mayfield: third team’s a charm

Many NFL fans had lost hope for Baker Mayfield after witnessing him dress out for 3 different teams in 2022, but there may be hope for him yet. Not only did he surprise fans in his first start for Los Angeles in Week 14, but Mayfield looked solid again on Sunday against a tough Denver defense that is currently ranked 3rd in the league for points allowed. Seriously, the Rams couldn’t stop scoring if they tried. For a team playing without Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, things could look much worse at this point. I'm not saying this is the Mayfield we need, but it's the Mayfield we deserve.

The Rams have 51 points today. They scored 52 points in their last three games COMBINED

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva)
Dec 26, 2022

🍺 5. Jaylen Waddle shines and Miami fizzles

The Dolphins got off to a spectacular start against Green Bay as fantasy players saw their best-case scenarios playing out right before their eyes. Tua Tagovailoa threw for nearly 200 yards in the first quarter of the game! 

Jaylen Waddle logged 5 receptions for 143 yards with a historic 84-yard TD catch! But the universe needs balance, and balance was unfortunately restored. The Dolphins’ last three possessions each ended with an INT, sealing their fate as they lost to the Packers 20-26.  How could something so bright fizzle out so quickly?

Tua Tagovailoa threw three straight interceptions, so his team was unable to score and win the game

— Bussin' With The Boys 🐺 (@BussinWTB)
Dec 25, 2022

🍺 6. Cam Akers: Nice! or Nightmare?

Before Christmas day, Cam Akers had a total of 441 yards and 4 TDs. On Christmas day, Akers ran for 118 yards and 3 TDs. Double check my math here, but that's like... way better.

Not only did Akers outperform himself, he also scored more fantasy points than the star RBs that carried our teams to the playoffs in the first place. So if you started Akers, nice! But if you played against Akers in Week 16... well, there's always next year. 

Can Akers with more fantasy points than Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs and Rhamondre Stevenson combined (to name a few) is indeed a Christmas miracle. Congrats to those with him - my condolences to those facing him.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 26, 2022

😩 A tough scene in the Raiders' locker room. Love the honesty here.

💰 It's all about the Chargers on MNF. Get the best plays from a DFS pro.

🐧 On Christmas?! That's a cold move! 

📈 When this QB is on, he's on. They need to make this repeatable.

😈 I can't believe they did him like this. Straight to the naughty list for 2023.

❓ What's the deal with the Colts' backfield? Find out who's in the best spot.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this weekly series, Kendall will lead us in overreacting to this weekend's action...

💎 We found some (hopeful) fantasy gems this season

I know, at this point in the season maybe your fantasy team didn’t pan out the way you wanted. An early playoff exit, an underperforming superstar. Whatever it was let me be the first to tell you:

THERE IS ALWAYS NEXT SEASON!

That’s not something everyone wants to hear, but looking back on the 2022 NFL season we had some gems uncovered that could alter the fantasy space as we know it. For starters, I think everyone is now excited about Justin Fields.

Maybe you were smart enough to know that he would elevate his play in his second season, but if not then welcome to the show. He’s accounted for 2,167 passing yards, 1,011 rushing yards, 24 total touchdowns, and 279 total fantasy points (QB6). The future looks bright, and Fields is going to be the talk of the town during draft season.

Another quarterback that set the back half of the season on fire was Trevor Lawrence. It really is silly that we weren’t able to get the full scope of who he could become in his rookie season, but here we are now and it is incredible.

In his last eight games, he’s thrown 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. It’s like a switch finally flipped and we are now watching the Lawrence show. Oh yeah, don’t forget that he gets even more weapons next season.

Breece Hall’s ACL injury cut his season short, but even in the few weeks we were gifted,  you could tell he is going to be a difference-maker. Seriously, the guy still leads the Jets in rushing yards and touchdowns and he hasn’t played since Week 7! 

There’s a lot more we could go through. Jamaal Williams, Christian Watson, Kenneth Walker, Jalen Hurts.

If you didn’t make it to the championship this year let’s hope the holidays have numbed the pain a little bit. But once you’re over that remember we have some serious gems to keep an eye on.

Is it too early to start planning for 2023?

Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday, our betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets. All lines from BetMGM...

💰 Cowboys -9.5 (@ Titans)

What a win for the Cowboys. The Eagles were playing without leading MVP candidate Jalen Hurts, but Dallas still made an impressive statement against the Eagles’ defense. They trailed for most of the game – and nearly the entire second half – but the Cowboys’ offense refused to let the Eagles pull away.

Unfortunately, things weren’t nearly as good for the Titans. Derrick Henry continued his domination of Houston, racking up 126 yards on 23 rushing attempts, but the passing game was not able to hold up their end of the bargain. Malik Willis finished with just 99 yards, two interceptions, and zero touchdowns, resulting in a dreadful 0.39 adjusted yards per attempt. Tennessee is likely stuck with Willis for the rest of the year, and he’s going to have to play better if the team has any chance of making it back to the postseason.

The Titans loss combined with the Jaguars’ win creates an interesting dynamic. Those two teams will meet in Week 18, and whoever wins that matchup will win the division. It doesn’t matter what happens with either team in Week 17, so both teams could treat it like a bye week if they so chose.

In 2019, the#Titans made Derrick Henry inactive against the#Saints with the game having no impact on the standings...twitter.com/PSchrags/statu…

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Dec 26, 2022

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are suddenly live for the NFC East division crown. With Hurts’ health a question mark, the Cowboys have a slim chance to sneak in the backdoor.

With that in mind, I expect this line to crack double-digits before kickoff. The sharps have hit the Cowboys hard since this number came out, and the public also figures to be on Dallas. If you’re going to take them, you’re best off doing so early in the week.

💰 Steelers +4.5 (@ Ravens)

It’s probably too little, too late as far as the Steelers qualifying for the playoffs, but they have looked like a completely different team with T.J. Watt back in the lineup. They’re 5-2 since he returned to the field, making them 6-2 with Watt overall. Their losses have both come by one score, including a two-point loss to the Ravens in Week 14.

However, that game featured a huge injury. Quarterback Kenny Pickett went down with a concussion, and Mitch Trubisky was dreadful in relief. He threw three back-breaking interceptions, all coming in the Ravens’ half of the field. If they can convert even one of those turnovers into a field goal, it could have made all the difference.

Pickett returned to the lineup in Week 16, and while he struggled for most of the game, he led the team to 10 points when they needed it most. They scored twice in the fourth quarter, including a game-winning touchdown with less than a minute on the clock.

The Steelers have historically performed very well as underdogs in divisional matchups. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach, the team is 8-4 against the spread as a divisional underdog of greater than a field goal. They are just 1-2 in that scenario this season, but one of those losses was with Watt out of the lineup.

With the Ravens’ playoff spot now secure, it’s possible they continue to exercise caution with star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ultimately, I expect this number to move as the week progresses, eventually closing below the key number of four. 

It's island game time, and Geoff is here to give you the 411 on this important MNF matchup between the Chargers & Colts...BTW we also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! 

⚡️ Chargers at Colts (+4.5) – 45.5 total 

This game represents one of the few “safe spaces” of the week, as it will be played inside the climate-controlled environment of the RCA Dome. The Colts are coming in hot(lol) after a horrific meltdown loss to the Vikings, which saw them blow a 33-0 lead and lose 39-36 in OT.

Thankfully for bettors, the team still managed to cover the +4.0 spread, but the loss prompted a change, as Nick Foles was named the starting quarterback for this game last Tuesday. 

While it’s clear that the Chargers are the better team right now, laughing off Foles comes with risk.

He took an indescribably bad Bears offense last year and gutted out a 25-24 win, and he would have worked with several of the team's budding stars like Alec Pierce and Jelenai Woods in training camp. 

A true pocket passer whose biggest fault is often waiting too long for a play to develop, expect more focused targeting on the RB and slot position this Monday with Foles. In his last two games with Jacksonville in 2019, Foles targeted Leonard Fournette an outrageous 23 times and fed David Montgomery nine targets in his only start last year with the Bears. 

Both Zack Moss and Parris Campbell could be great spike week candidates, with Campbell lining up in the slot on 78% of his snaps this year. 

The Chargers' secondary will be a concern though, especially for a quarterback who hasn’t made a start in over a year. Despite losing corner J.C. Jackson early in the year, the Chargers have rebounded as a unit in that area, grabbing interceptions in three of their last four games, and they now rank 13th in defensive pass DVOA on the season. 

Targeting Foles for an interception in this game has merit, and the Fantasy Life Projections has him with a 70% probability rate of going over 0.5 INTs on the week. 

The other side of the ball has a budding superstar in Justin Herbert, who has looked fabulous since overcoming an early-season rib injury. Herbert’s efficiency can sometimes wax and wane, but he’s averaged 313.8 passing yards over his last five starts. The Colts’ secondary got exposed last week, allowing Justin Jefferson and KJ Osborn to combine for 22 catches and 280 yards along with two TDs. 

Stephon Gilmore remains one of the league's better defensive backs, but Colts nickel corner Kenny Moore has been atrocious this season. He and outside corner Isaiah Rodgers have both allowed a passer rating of over 117.0 when thrown at in 2022, with Moore also allowing a 70% completion rate on balls thrown in his direction. This should be a great spot for Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer, who both figure to avoid Gilmore most of the game. 

Allen has taken 79% of his snaps from the slot position this year and has converted on 20 of 23 targets thrown his way over the last two weeks. He’s projected for heavy usage, including 10.9 targets this week on Fantasy Life. 

The total this week feels like a slight overreaction to what we saw in Minnesota last Saturday. Ultimately, Indianapolis is just 5-9 at hitting overs this year and the Chargers’ improving defense has helped to push their game totals to under the last two weeks. A closer, lower-scoring affair also makes a Colts cover more likely, and it’s worth noting that Indianapolis (despite being 5-9 ATS overall) are 2-0 ATS as home underdogs this season. 

Having a more competent game manager in Foles should help keep this game close and with the Chargers having won by more than a single score just once this season, the +4.5 on Indianapolis looks more than reasonable as a spread bet this week. 

What to expect from Foles in this game will go a long way to dictating how to approach it from betting and fantasy.