Do you think the Empire State Building will go with red/orange lights if the Chiefs win...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Sirius XM:

• What are the Niners going to do at QB?
• Buy/Sell/Hold: BK, AJ & the Super Bowl
• A crazy Cardinals stat
• Free Agency Files: The QBs
• Fantasy Fixers: The Raiders
• It's 1/31. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

I didn't think it was possible, but the San Francisco 49ers QB situation somehow got more messy after the Divisional Round. 

Heading into the game, rookie QB sensation Brock Purdy was the odds-on favorite to open the season as the starting QB. But after suffering a torn UCL in his right elbow and receiving a six month recovery timeline, this can of worms has been fully reopened. 

Here is a rundown of all the potential candidates to emerge at the top of the Niners shaky QB depth chart when the dust settles in September:

🏅 Brock Purdy, the slight favorite

Even with a six month rehab window, Purdy could still return around the start of training camp depending on how well he recovers. There's uncertainty on whether he'll undergo surgery or not and exactly what kind of procedure it would be if he did. Regardless, this injury puts the Niners into dicey territory:

Mullens underwent a surgical UCL repair with InternalBrace, less extensive than a complete reconstruction. 
If Purdy needs a repair, this would make them the only NFL starting QBs to have had the procedure. 
It’s uncanny.

— Stephania Bell (@Stephania_ESPN) 
Jan 30, 2023

Still, Purdy impressed enough to maintain the pole position for the QB1 spot.

🦨Trey Lance, the pariah

Lance, who the Niners drafted third overall in 2021 and broke his ankle in Week 2, is expected to be ready for the offseason program.

Rumors had recently swirled about the Niners potentially moving Lance for picks, though, and Lance fanned those flames with an Instagram post about the Titans new GM Ran Carthon, who spent the past six seasons with San Fran.

The real question is could Lance fetch enough compensation on the trade market to justify moving him. Otherwise, it makes sense to let him compete with Purdy for the starting job.

🧙 Jimmy Garoppolo, the mainstay

And then there's Jimmy G, who suffered a broken foot in December and is now a free agent. The most likely outcome here is the Niners let him walk in free agency, but then again, the team has had a hard time quitting this smilin' son of a gun:

The goal in life is to have a life partner that smiles at you the way Jimmy G smiled while the 49ers got clobbered 😩😩🤣🤣

— Bootney Lee Fonzworth (@JuiceBake501) 
Jan 29, 2023

🃏 Tom Brady, the wildcard

Ahh, yes. Here's the fun one. Brady becomes a free agent this offseason and famously grew up rooting for the Niners. It's the only landing spot in the entire league where Brady could realistically compete for a Super Bowl in 2023. 

Here's how an exec from an NFL team laid it out for Mike Sando in The Athletic:

"I think they will trade Trey Lance to Tennessee and then they will end up with Brady and Brady will play one year for his home team, and they will have Brock Purdy as the backup. That is the chatter. They have the defense already, Brady wants to win one more, and this is right up the 49ers’ alley."

NFL Exec

If you're curious about other possibilities and juicy rumors, I highly recommend the full piece. 

It's going to be a wild offseason.

🎧 It's The Perfect Pre-Game Playlist...

Everybody has their pump-up songs.

Whether you're heading to the gym or driving to a game, nothing gets you going quite like turning on your pre-game playlist and cranking the volume up.

Fantasy players and bettors count here, too, you know - Getting laser-focused on the way to negotiate offseason trades, diving into bets for the Big Game, or getting an early head-start on rookie research.

These are important tasks that require peak focus and adrenaline.

Luckily, we have the perfect playlist for you, and you can get it for FREE for 3 months.

Let Kendall Valenzuela and Peter Overzet get your blood pumping with the best off-season fantasy football advice, bets to target for the Big Game, and more, Monday through Friday, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.

Playing Thunderstruck on repeat may not give you the edge you need, but Kendall and Pete sure will.

Get 3 Months for Free

With the fantasy season behind us, all we can do is look forward. Let’s talk about fantasy lessons learned during the Conference Championship from a buy, sell perspective. Take it away, Cooterdoodle…

🛒BUY

🍔BK cursed AJ

Burger King’s ‘whopper whopper’ jingle has gone viral in the best and worst of ways over the last two months. Whether you like to sing along or cower in fear when it plays, the song is inescapable for NFL fans. 

But what I find most concerning is the jingle's impact on AJ Brown’s production. 

Let’s look at the facts: 

1. Weeks 1-14, Brown hauled in 1,020 yards for 10 TDs. That is the WR1 we have come to know and love. 
2. Late November, Burger King revealed their new jingle and it was fun…at first.

fine ill say it:

this "bk, have it your way" jingle is an absolute banger & complete earworm

— playoff pete (@peteroverzet) 
Nov 22, 2022

But we all know that after enough repetitions, a catchy tune can become painfully tiresome. Once it gets stuck in your head, you can’t escape it. That’s when the song can turn on you.

After crunching the numbers, it is clear that the jingle turned on AJ Brown leading up to Week 15 and it has been seared in his brain like a juicy whopper patty ever since. This explains why Brown’s last six games resulted in only 1 singular TD. ONE. To put this into perspective, Boston Scott has scored three times as many TDs across those same games. If you’ve kept up with AJ Brown lore, you know this isn’t his first run in with fast food troubles.

Has BK cursed AJ? I think so. But the good news is this: it only takes one new song to rid yourself of an old, cursed one, and Brown has recently found just the right tune. AJ Brown will score in the Super Bowl, confirmed.

🛒SELL

😴 This Super Bowl is a snoozefest

“Predictable” “Chalky” “Boring” Twitter is on fire with salty adjectives after the Chiefs and Eagles finalized their paths to the Super Bowl. And look, I get it. I wanted an upset. I rooted for all the wrong teams. I’m a little annoyed that this wasn’t the outcome I had hoped for, too. But “boring”??

We are talking about two high-powered offenses facing off in the biggest game of the season. Boredom is what comes in 3 weeks, post-SB, while we wait for the NFL offseason to end. Predictable as it may be, the two teams with the most wins made it through. Simple as that. Hurts and Mahomes get to duke it out now. So let’s marinate in the Kelce Bro narrative, even if it’s overkill. 

Plan your parties. Prepare your menus. Or get invited somewhere and skip the hard part. However you spend the next two weeks, let’s enjoy the little bit of football that we have left.

🎶 The WR who won't be going to the locker room at halftime of the Super Bowl. Respect.

📈 The Chargers make a nice add. Great news for Herbert and co.

🎤 The first step is admitting you are wrong. Now start memorizing, AJ.

0️⃣ Oh no, Cardinals. This is not a stat you want to be associated with.

🤝 BJ Hill is a good teammate. Pure class.

🐙 The Chiefs pass rush is something else. Chris Jones was an animal.

With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. Today, we start with the QBs, where Dwain analyzes the top free agents and a couple of names that are on the trade block.

📁 Tier 1 – High-End Dual Threats

📁 Lamar Jackson

While Jackson is highly unlikely to hit the free agent market, he does not currently have a deal to play with the Ravens in 2023. Baltimore’s top brass remains bullish on getting a long-term contract signed, despite their inability to get something done before the 2022 campaign. If the Ravens can’t reach a long-term agreement, one option would be to tag and trade Jackson.

Jackson will seek a deal similar to Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes, who all have average annual salaries in the $45M range. The 26-year-old is older than those QBs were when signing their deals and while he is an elite weapon on the ground, he ranks below those options as a passer.

PFF QB Grades from 2020 to 2022 (minimum 300 dropbacks):

A $45M average salary would represent approximately 20% of the salary cap. As much as we love Jackson’s ability as a rusher in fantasy, the NFL is still a pass-first league and the Ravens could try to keep the number around the $40M mark. Of 37 QBs with at least 500 attempts over the last three seasons, Jackson ranks 31st in catchable inaccurate passes (24.7%) and uncatchable inaccurate passes (20.4%), per PFF charting data. Accuracy has consistently been a challenge over the years.

However, in the right scheme and surrounded by more weapons, Jackson could lead an offense that looks a lot like what the Eagles put on the field in 2022. The sixth-year veteran is the No. 7 PFF passer when using play action (89.1), which would make him a great fit in a run-balanced offense like Atlanta, which has the salary cap and draft capital available to pull off a deal if the Ravens can’t come to terms. In 2021, Jackson supported strong fantasy performances from Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, who averaged 17.5 and 14.3 points per game, respectively.

Purely from a fantasy scoring perspective, Jackson should put up points wherever he lands – only Jalen Hurts (0.71) and Justin Fields (0.70) averaged more points per dropback. Jackson averaged 0.65 and was one of only six QBs to average over 20 points per game at 20.4. In 2022, no QB registered more designed rushing yards (559) or averaged more per designed attempt (6.5) than Jackson, despite only playing 12 games.

Ideal Landing Spots: Falcons, Ravens, 49ers

📁 Tier 2 – High-End Pocket Passers

📁 Tom Brady

Dual-threat QBs might be the most coveted signal callers in the new NFL, but there are only so many on the planet. That means there will always be a place for high-end pocket passers like Brady should he decide to return for another year.

The 23-year veteran took a step back in 2022, registering only 16.8 fantasy points per game, his lowest number since 2013. The step back has many wondering if Father Time has finally caught up with Brady, much like the outcry we heard after the 2019 season.

Similar to 2019, Brady threw short of the sticks on 55% of his passes in 2022. The Buccaneers’ receiving corps never fully recovered from the loss of Antonio Brown, with Chris Godwin coming back from a serious knee injury. Russell Gage wasn’t a factor until late in the season, and the tight end room wasn’t the same without Rob Gronkowski.

Some of Brady’s misfortune can be chalked up to variance. Of 18 QBs with at least 50 pass attempts over 20 yards, he was the fourth-most accurate (44%). However, he ranked 14th in completion rate (35%). The veteran QB still delivers the deep ball with accuracy but only connected for four TDs, versus seven and 11 in the two previous campaigns.

The underlying data suggests that Brady still has a top-six QB upside in the right situation. However, for that to come to fruition, he must be surrounded by multiple playmakers. With the NFL playing more and more coverage over the top, the veteran QB would be most effective in an attack with more run-after-the-catch talent. 

Ideal Landing Spots: Dolphins, Raiders, Jets, Steelers, 49ers, Lions, Buccaneers, Commanders

📁 Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers isn’t a free agent, but he is a bonus addition with the Packers opening up the phone lines for offers from AFC teams.

Similar to Brady, Rodgers was written off in 2019 after a bad season but rebounded in a big way in 2020 and 2021 with QB3 and QB6 finishes. Then in 2022, with Davante Adams traded to the Raiders, the veteran QB posted a career-low 15.0 fantasy points per game.

Rodgers threw a tantalizing 85 TDs in 2020 and 2021, with Adams catching 29 (34%). However in 2022, the Packers allowed their star QB to enter the season with journeymen Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb as his top two options. Ultimately, rookie second-rounder Christian Watson emerged to catch 7 TD passes between Weeks 10 and 18.

The 18-year veteran will be 39 at the beginning of the 2023 season, but he can still make all the throws and has the uncanny ability to create big plays off-script. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers has the third-most TDs (14) on scramble drill plays, per PFF data. He stands in ELITE company, trailing only Mahomes (18) and Allen (18).

With how long QBs can play in today’s NFL, Rodgers could have another five-plus years ahead if he avoids injury. If he were a true free agent, he would rank ahead of Brady thanks to his ability to create more out of structure. 

Rodgers has mid-range QB1 upside if he lands in the right spot and has the talent profile to take a strong receiving corps to the next level.

Ideal Landing Spots: Dolphins, Raiders, Jets, Steelers

Get our de-classified list of free agent QBs

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. LaMarca is here to take on our next project, the Raiders...

🏴‍☠️ Team Summary

2022-23 was another disappointing, dysfunctional season for the Raiders. The team entered the year with playoff aspirations in what was supposed to be the best division in football. The Raiders reunited Derek Carr with college teammate Davante Adams, giving the team an abundance of weapons on the offensive side of the ball.

Of course, that’s not exactly how things played out.

The Raiders' offense was respectable – they finished 12th in points and yards per game – but they weren’t nearly as explosive as expected. They also weren’t good enough to overcome the team’s subpar defense, which finished the season 31st in defensive DVOA.

The Raiders also brought their typical mix of off-the-field shenanigans to the party. Even though the players claim that head coach Josh McDaniels never lost the locker room, there was a report that ownership would’ve fired him if they could afford to do it. They’re still paying Jon Gruden a ton of money not to coach the team, so the Raiders simply don’t have the cash to pay another coach to go away.

All of that paints a pretty bleak outlook heading into the offseason, but the Raiders are in a position to hit the refresh button. While McDaniels isn’t going anywhere, the rest of the roster could look vastly different next season.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

1. Blow It Up at Quarterback

The writing is on the wall for Carr in Las Vegas. He’s been the team’s starter since being drafted out of Fresno State in 2014, and he’s given the team solid production at the position. He made three Pro Bowls from 2015 through 2017, and he even finished in the top three of the MVP voting in 2016. He has been an above-average starter for most of his career, and it’s hard to find good quarterbacks. If you don’t believe me, just ask someone like the Jets, who have been searching for a quarterback for the better part of four decades.

Still, it’s hard to argue that getting rid of Carr is anything but a win for the franchise.

For starters, Carr’s play declined significantly in 2022-23. Despite having a legit No. 1 receiver in Adams, Carr averaged just 6.7 adjusted yards per attempt. That was his worst mark since 2017-18, and his 14 interceptions were tied for a career-high. Ultimately, he finished 27th out of 39 qualifiers at the position in terms of Pro Football Focus grade.

Even when Carr was playing his best, he struggled to get the Raiders into the postseason. He did it just twice in his nine years as the team’s starter, and they exited in the first round on both occasions.

However, the biggest issue with Carr is his contract. One of the easiest ways to be a poor to mediocre football team is by paying an average quarterback star-level money. Carr had the ninth-highest cap hit at the QB position in 2022-23, and he will cost the Raiders nearly $35M against the cap if he stays on the books for next season. That is simply too much money for a player of his caliber.

Of the top 10 quarterbacks in terms of cap hit this season, only four of their teams made the postseason. Those teams were the Chiefs, Vikings, Ravens, and Cowboys. The Ravens and Vikings both exited in the first round, while the Cowboys were gone shortly after. Only the Chiefs are still standing, and that would likely be the case even if they were paying Patrick Mahomes $100M a year. 

Ultimately, paying anyone but a truly elite option at the position is a great way to end up with a roster devoid of top-end talent.

By moving on from Carr, it puts the Raiders in a position where they can rebuild the rest of the roster around a young passer. If they get lucky with the right signal caller, they can turn things around really quickly. It might not feel like it after last season, but they might be closer to winning a Super Bowl now than they were at the start of last year.

Get the rest of our Las Vegas blueprints

Publish on Beehiiv