At least we didn’t make the people in London watch the Patriots…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog:

• A sneaky shootout in Week 6 with fresh faces
• Morning Download: Swimming with a Dolphin
• Bets from the Group Chat: A 3-headed Monster Parlay
• QUICK HITTER: All-in on this rookie WR.
• The WR set to explode
• Hidden Gems: A QB/TE stack to target in DFS
• It’s 10/15. Take it away Peter Overzet…

Today’s divisional tilt between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings looks a lot different than anyone would have predicted a few weeks ago.

Both of these squads are now 1-4 and the loser will pivot their gaze from the playoffs to Caleb Williams (yes, I know he threw some INTs last night).

We’ll also be getting our first look at the Vikings offense without Justin Jefferson, who will be out at least 4-6 weeks (if not an ominously longer period of time).

And the Bears RB room is decimated with Khalil Herbert (ankle), Roschon Johnson (concussion), and Travis Homer (hamstring) all ruled out.

In their wake, this game offers plenty of intrigue with a few sleepers stepping into big roles and a couple of WRs with game-breaking speed who can speed up the pace of play quickly.

📈 From inactive to RB2?

D’Onta Foreman, despite receiving a $2m contract this offseason, has been a healthy scratch in all but one game this year because he doesn’t contribute on special teams.

But things change quickly in the NFL and now he’ll have the entire backfield to himself, which slots him in as a low-end RB2 for Week 6:

It might seem weird to have confidence in a guy who hasn’t played a snap since Week 1, but Foreman has been a very capable rusher throughout his career–first as a backup to Derrick Henry in Tennessee and then last year in Carolina, where he averaged 4.5 YPC.

💎 For more Foreman propaganda, I explained why I loved him as a hidden gem in DFS contests this week.

🤔 Who steps up for the Vikings?

With no Jefferson, there are a mountain of targets available in the Minnesota offense. And this is especially relevant for a team who will continue to be forced to chuck the ball. Dwain explains:

“The Vikings could pass the ball less without Jefferson, but they don’t have a strong run game, and this team has failed to build leads. No team has trailed by four-plus points more often than Minnesota’s befuddling 38% in 2023.

The Vikings rank No. 2 in DBOE (8%), and that likely isn’t going to change much, given all the factors in play.”

The obvious beneficiary is, of course, T.J. Hockenson, who is our consensus TE2 on the week.

But where things really get interesting is with the WRs:

The rookie, Jordan Addison, is a very intriguing play this week after he registered 100% route participation and 25% target share in Week 5 after Jefferson left the game.

K.J. Osborn is reportedly going to step in and play the Jefferson role. I’m extremely skeptical of Osborn filling those shoes, but a volume uptick coupled with his solid aDOT (9.76) and TD opportunities (33% of the endzone targets) make him interesting as a spot-start and in DFS contests.

I’ll also mention Brandon Powell here, who is the stone minimum on DraftKings today ($3,000), earned six targets last week, and will likely be on the field for all of the 3-WR sets.

—

And this is all before even mentioning that Justin Fields and D.J. Moore will look to give an encore to their performance vs. the Commanders last Thursday.

It might not be the sexiest game of the week, but this one has the potential to get nutty in a very fun way for fantasy purposes.

🛠️ Everything you need for Week 6

Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the Dolphins backfield, the short-handed Jets, and the return of Austin Ekeler.

For everything else you need for Week 6—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.

If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...

🚀 Full Steam Ahead for Raheem Mostert

The Dolphins’ rushing attack has been an absolute monster this season. They are first in rushing EPA/play by a wide margin, and they’ve been good enough to support two elite fantasy running backs. Mostert enters Week 6 as the No. 2 running back in PPR scoring, while De’Von Achane is No. 3 despite playing just four games.

Achane was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this week, so Mostert should be even better for fantasy purposes in Week 6. That’s particularly true with Jeff Wilson Jr. getting ruled out on Saturday, leaving the team with minimal options at the position.

The fact that Mostert has been so efficient despite having average utilization is extremely encouraging. He has just a 60% snap share and 45% carry share, and both figures should get pumped up sans Achane and Wilson.

Mostert is currently tied with Tony Pollard for the No. 3 spot our the Week 6 running back rankings. That might end up being two spots too low.

🤕 Injuries Piling up in New York

The Jets have looked better in recent weeks, beating the Broncos and losing a close game to the Chiefs. There was actually optimism that this team could survive despite losing Aaron Rodgers.

That might still be the case, but things don’t look great for the team in Week 6.

They lost Elijah Vera-Tucker to a season-ending injury, and he’s the team’s best offensive lineman. That’s far from ideal against an Eagles squad that has maybe the best defensive line in football.

The team will also be without their top two cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. The Eagles’ passing attack hasn’t been quite as good this year as it was last season, but they still boast an elite quarterback and a pair of fantastic receivers.

Ultimately, Jalen Hurts checks in as our No. 3 quarterback in our Week 6 rankings, while A.J. Brown is our No. 9 receiver. On the other side, the Jets’ offensive players could struggle after providing decent value in Week 5.

🔙 Austin Ekeler Makes His Return

We haven’t seen Ekeler since Week 1, when he was the No. 2 running back in PPR leagues with 26.4 points. He was also the No. 1 PPR running back in 2022, so fantasy players are unsurprisingly excited about his return.

They’ll have to wait until Monday Night Football, but Ekeler is in a fantastic spot in his first game back.

The Cowboys are 31st in the league in Success Rate vs. the run, and Ekeler could also see an expanded role in the passing game without Mike Williams. Ekeler played in four games without Williams last season, and he averaged over 10 targets and seven receptions in those contests.

That might not be the most accurate representation of what to expect on Monday – Keenan Allen also missed those contests – but Ekeler should be busier than he was in Week 1.

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Welcome to Week 6 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.

Before we get to the bets, a little self-promotion.

A lot of the information and bets were arrived at by using our free betting tools. Pages like our player prop table can let you see right away where our projections see the biggest edges for the week and can be very useful in helping make decisions for betting and fantasy every week.

Make sure you check them out after you’re done reading.

Let’s get to it…

⬇️ Jordan likes: Salvon Ahmed under 27.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life aggregate projection: 3.5 carries, 14.6 rush yards

Salvon Ahmed sets up like an M. Night Shyamalan movie for me this week. You know there is a twist coming but you don’t know if the twist is going to be good (The Sixth Sense – he sees 10+ carries and 100+ yards) or bad (The Happening – he gets the odd pity carry but Raheem Mostert hogs the ball and rookie Chris Brooks plays over him).

If you’re playing Ahmed overs you should likely go for the homerun and play alternative lines (50+, 75+ yards), but, with his rushing total where it is now, I agree with Jordan – the under is the play.

Ahmed hasn’t had a touch in three games (inactive in two of the last three) and even when rookie De’Von Achane missed Week 1, the Dolphins gave him just three carries.

His under is a very worthy start to our parlay.

⬇️ Mark Likes: Raiders under 22.5 team total (-115, BetMGM)

I gotta admit, when Mark Drumheller dropped this bet in I had to double-check and see if it was the correct total.

Las Vegas has been a slow-paced offense this year (27th in plays per game) and has a defense that has been decent at stopping the big play (16th in yards per play against), but that also doesn’t produce turnovers (4 turnovers on the season – tied for third worst in league).

That just adds up to lots of long sustained drives for their opponent.

As Mark explains in our free bet tracker, as bad as the Patriots have been, this is also a great spot for the Patriots’ defense – both from a 2023 and historical perspective.

Mark’s thinking is pretty much in line with my own on this game and offers another way to play for a Patriots bounceback (and fade the Raiders), making the under-22.5 team total a great one for us to target.

⬆️ Geoff Likes: Zach Wilson over 11.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life aggregate projection: 16.9 rush yards

Since it’s the first week we’re putting together the group parlay I will selfishly take the last leg and include one of my own favorite player props for the week.

So far this year, Zach Wilson has seen a slightly elevated scramble rate (6% vs. 5% last year) and interestingly enough has a 5% designed rush rate – and been over 7% on designed rush attempts in three of four starts.

While you don’t primarily think of Wilson as a runner, he’s still got decent mobility and comes in averaging 19.25 rush yards over his last four games.

When you add in the fact he’s facing a team that brings lots of pressure in the Eagles – who allowed the fourth most rush yards to opposing QBs last year – this feels like a great spot for Wilson to potentially use his legs to help alleviate some of that pressure.

🤝 Week 6 group parlay: +543 (BetMGM)

• Salvon Ahmed under 27.5 rush yards (-115)
• Raiders under 22.5 team total (-115)
• Zach Wilson over 11.5 rush yards (-115)

You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!

MORE Bets from the Group Chat

Have you not heard the news?! Underdog has upped their 100% deposit match to $500 (!!) for a limited time! You also get a mystery Pick’em special when you sign up. Speaking of Pick’em plays, Geoff has some he’s hammering for Week 6…

🚁 The WR going for 8-143-2 today. The chopper has spoken.

😭 Please don’t let this be true. Awful news for the Colts.

✈️ No Sauce Gardner for the Jets? A.J. Brown ain’t mad about it.

🤯 I honestly can’t believe this stat. There’s no way this is true.

😴 Don’t forget to stash this RB before the games kickoff. Lots of late-season upside here.

🤔 Will Kirk Cousins remain on the Vikings? An update here from Schefter.

😆 Lamar Jackson is dialed in. Ravens by a million?

🐬 Tyreek Hill gets fined…again.

🛒 Buy low on these two players. Window could slam shut today.

🎯 Crazy QB target practice. Bounce-back game incoming?

Everyone knows the best plays. Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.

🎯QB/TE Stack: Sam Howell & Logan Thomas (ADPs: 35.9 & 34.8)

Sam Howell (QB11) is going undrafted in most contests this week and Logan Thomas is being drafted less than 20% of the time, which means this stack will be utilized by less than 1% of the field.

I think that’s crazy.

Howell finished as the QB6 last week and threw the ball 51 times. He threw it 41 times the week before. As a result, Washington now sports the highest PROE (pass rate over expectation) in the entire league. Aka, this is a team that is willing to chuck it.

I think there’s a clear Top 3 at QB this week (Hurts, Justin Fields, and Tua Tagovailoa), but after that, it’s a bunch of pocket passers who will need to throw for multiple TDs to hit a high score. There’s no reason Howell can’t find himself atop this cohort with the Commanders’ pass-happy leanings:

As for Thomas, he earned an eye-popping 11 targets in Week 5. But what’s even crazier is that not all of these were low-calorie, dink and dunk throws near the line of scrimmage. Thomas earned 21% of the team’s total Air Yards and garnered 40% of the end zone targets:

I think Thomas is in play as a one-off TE selection this week, but I always like correlating my QB with their TE.

I specifically like this duo when I take Bijan Robinson in the first round of drafts. It’s not farfetched to think we could get the Bijan explosion game followed by Howell slinging it in comeback mode.

🐻 RB: D'Onta Foreman (ADP: 35.7)

One thing I like to think through in these contests is leverage. We discussed this concept in our Week 1 piece in regards to the 49ers offense and this week we have another prime opportunity to exploit field tendencies.

D.J. Moore is currently going as the No. 5 overall pick in Week 6 contests, ahead of Bijan, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams–just to name a few.

I certainly understand why this is happening (he’s coming off an 8-230-3 game and now faces the Vikings), but I think this is an extremely frothy ADP for a player whose volatile production doesn’t match up with the profile of a player who is regularly drafted in the first round.

I’ll have a very small amount of DJM in my Battle Royale portfolio this week (and exclusively paired with Fields when I do grab a sprinkle), which means I need to consider ways to further leverage this fade.

One obvious one is by loading up on the WRs going directly after him like AJB and Adams.

Another one is to pair Fields with Cole Kmet (ADP: 31.3) instead.

But these pivots don’t give us access to players who aren’t being drafted in 100% of contests.

That brings us to D’Onta Foreman, who will have the entire backfield to himself on Sunday with both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert out.

Foreman gives us a chance to leverage against the field’s overconfidence that the Chicago points will be primarily generated by DJM.

While DJM, Fields, and Kmet are the most likely path for the Bears to put up a big score, what if they do most of their damage on the ground instead?

In these scenarios where Foreman scores a couple of TDs, not only have we unearthed a hidden gem that our opponents won’t have, but we also crater all of the teams who overpaid for Moore.

A Hidden Gem WR to Target

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