Might have had one too many hot dogs over the weekend…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Discord Server:

• RBs aren’t exactly flying off the board in early fantasy drafts
• Kadarius Toney offseason hype szn is in full swing
• RB Knockout w/Dwain
• Team Preview: Cincinnati Bengals
• It’s 5/30. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…

The fantasy football best ball streets are alive and well despite the community still generally being a month or two away from fully embracing re-draft szn.

One quick takeaway anyone who has conducted a 2023 draft will notice in a hurry: RBs aren’t quite flying off the board in the same ridiculous manner as in past years.

The following graph denotes when each year’s overall RB12, RB24 and RB36 were taken in terms of average draft position (ADP). Note that referenced ADP is an average of multiple best-ball sources.

😳 The top-12 fantasy RBs are off the board a full round later than they were two years ago

There’s a large difference in the ADP between the RB12 in 2023 (pick 29) and 2022 (20) as well, but things really get wonky when comparing present-day to 2021 (17) or 2020 (14) when fantasy’s top-12 RBs were regularly off the board early into the second round.

This early push at WR and newfound inclusion of multiple high-round QBs has resulted in workhorse RBs surprisingly being available in the early portions of the third round, something Fantasy Life’s Peter Overzet identified when breaking down his favorite positional ranges of the draft.

Each of Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Breece Hall are on average going between picks 22 and 30 after the top-12 WRs are off the board over at Underdog Fantasy.

These sorts of explosive bell-cow talents simply haven’t been available this late in past years; I’ve loved the early returns on drafts where I managed to get at least one of these backs before diving back into WRs.

😴 The end of the RB2 range is taking place far later than in past years

While there isn’t a dropoff in ADP from the overall RB24 in 2023 compared to 2022, the top-24 backs are off the board over a full round later than they were in any year between 2019 and 2021.

This finding adds some credence to the idea that the RB dead zone isn’t quite what it’s been made out to be in the past – a topic I explored with past BBM winner Justin Herzig during a draft over on the Fantasy Life YouTube channel.

The idea of the RB dead zone was in part about the player archetype, but more so about when those players were going overall, not necessarily the specific range at the position.

Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP.

Fast forward to 2023, and there are only three RBs being drafted from pick 31 to 49 in terms of Underdog ADP: Guys like Kenneth Walker, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins might fit the prototypical dead-zone mold as backs who could struggle to consistently see every-down roles, but these sorts of players are far easier to throw darts at in round four or five compared to three.

❓ Uncertain committee situations are tanking the ADP of everyone involved

Yes, it’s scary to draft players in murky backfields in the early parts of the summer when we simply don’t know who will rise to the top.

Also yes, these ambiguous RB groups are the exact sort of situations to target in order to open yourself up to some of that sweet, sweet ADP value down the road when these muddled situations inevitably clear up.

Just five backfields don’t have a single player with an ADP higher than the position’s RB30:

• Bills: James Cook (RB30), Damien Harris (RB38)
• Bears: Khalil Herbert (RB40), Roschon Johnson (RB45), D’Onta Foreman (RB50)
• Dolphins: Devon Achane (RB36), Raheem Mostert (RB47), Jeff Wilson (RB52)
• Saints: Alvin Kamara (RB31), Jamaal Williams (RB42), Kendre Miller (RB44)
• Commanders: Brian Robinson (RB34), Antonio Gibson (RB39)

I’ve been particularly fond of throwing darts at Achane thanks to the speedy rookie’s potential to work as who Mike McDaniel thought Chase Edmonds was, Miller due to his potential status as the Saints’ lead pass-down back for however long Kamara might be suspended, and Gibson because he’s seemingly got a stranglehold on pass-down work with upside for much more should Robinson miss any time.

😔 This speedy bell-cow RB might be facing a bit more backfield competition this season. Committees are no fun.

🦶 Remember when the Raiders’ deal with Jimmy Garoppolo was briefly delayed? Turns out there was an important reason why!

🥊 RB Knockout w/Dwain McFarland. We’re finding ELITE fantasy talent.

💎 Comparing our favorite fantasy targets to ADP. We found some gems.

💰 The Succession series finale was pretty great. What are Kendall Roy’s thoughts on Terry McLaurin? 

👨‍💼 Imagine if NFL players had fantasy football agents. Jake doesn’t miss.

💣 No more DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona. Don’t be surprised if this WR now BOOMS.

😬 The Steelers offense wasn’t very good in 2022. And now their QB had his playbook stolen.

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Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Bengals, who once again sure look to be fielding one of the league’s most fantasy-friendly offenses…

🥇 QB

• Joe Burrow (Ian’s QB6)
• Trevor Siemian (QB49)

Burrow proved capable of supplying a fantasy-friendly rushing floor during his second season removed from a torn ACL: His rushing line in 2022 (90-327-6 including playoffs) is actually superior to what he managed in 30 combined games during 2020 and 2021 (88-291-5).

Of course, Burrow’s primary means of racking up yardage remains through the air: Only Patrick Mahomes (20.3) has averaged more fantasy points per game from pure passing production than Burrow (19.2) over the past two seasons.

The 2020 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick has been anyone’s idea of a true top-five real-life QB since entering the league:

• Yards per attempt: 7.7 (No. 5 among 39 QBs with 16-plus starts since 2020)
• Adjusted yards per attempt: 7.9 (No. 5)
• Completion rate: 68.2% (No. 2)
• Passer rating: 100.4 (No. 5)
• TD rate: 5.4% (No. 10)
• INT rate: 2% (No. 16)

The accuracy here is truly ridiculous.

This production has easily translated into all sorts of fantasy success. Overall, only Jalen Hurts (80%), Patrick Mahomes (71%) and Josh Allen (69%) finished as top-six fantasy scorers in a higher percentage of their starts than Burrow (44%) last season.

Only Allen, Hurts and Mahomes have averaged more fantasy points per game than Burrow over the last two seasons; the only additional signal-callers I have ranked ahead of Joe Brrr are extreme dual-threat talents Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, but I’m fine prioritizing Burrow ahead on teams that already managed to draft one of his big-two WRs.

🔔🐄 RB

• Joe Mixon (Ian’s RB12)
• Chase Brown (RB69)
• Trayveon Williams (RB80)
• Chris Evans (RB86)

Two key off-the-field considerations have resulted in Mixon carrying an ADP as just the RB19 over at Underdog Fantasy:

Off-the-field problems: A warrant was initially issued in Cincinnati for Mixon’s arrest on a count of Aggravated Menacing back on February 2nd. The case was originally dismissed before being re-filed in April. There was another issue on March 7 featuring the Hamilton County Sheriff’s Office, who said Mixon’s home was considered part of a crime scene after an alleged shooting in his neighborhood. No charges were filed and Mixon wasn’t named a suspect; just realize this is a troubling trend even before considering some of his transgressions from college.

Contract: The Bengals could save about $10 million by releasing Mixon. Of course, the Broncos’ signing of Samaje Perine doesn’t exactly give Cincy a ton of depth at the position, especially after they refrained from adding any sort of real additional competition in the draft or free agency. There are still some viable free agents out there like Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette, but none exactly stand out as big-time upgrades at the position.

Pre-draft coach speak from offensive coordinator Brian Callahan sure seemed to point towards Mixon once again working as the team’s starting RB, and the team’s lack of additional offseason moves reinforces this idea.

Moving forward under the assumption that Mixon will once again be working as the Bengals’ workhorse: He stands out as arguably the most mispriced RB in all of fantasy at the moment.

Only Austin Ekeler averaged more expected PPR points per game than Mixon last season, and that was with Perine taking all sorts of fantasy-friendly pass-down work.

• Ekeler (20.4 expected PPR points per game)
• Mixon (19)
• Christian McCaffrey (18.6)
• Saquon Barkley (17.9)
• Josh Jacobs (17.4)

PFF’s reigning 28th-ranked offensive line didn’t exactly help matters on the ground – it was Mixon’s receiving ability that really helped save the day in fantasy land.

Only four RBs averaged more PPR points per game from purely receiving production than Mixon last season:

• Ekeler (12.3 PPR points per game from purely receiving)
• McCaffrey (11.1)
• Jerick McKinnon (9.5)
• Leonard Fournette (9)
• Mixon (8.3)

Mixon has worked as the RB6 in PPR points per game in each of the past two seasons; even continued declines in overall rushing efficiency probably won’t be enough to keep him out of the position’s top-12 options thanks to his status as the primary TD scorer inside of the league’s reigning seventh-ranked scoring offense.

The time to draft Mixon is now. His ADP will likely rise into the position’s top-10 options once August comes around and it truly becomes crystal clear that he’ll once again be the bell-cow back inside of one of the game’s best offenses.

It’s tough to be overly excited about any of these backups as true handcuff options considering the history of Williams splitting time with Evans in games not featuring either Mixon or Perine. I give fifth-round rookie RB Brown the slight edge, but haven’t been drafting any of these backups in best ball land.

Click here for breakdowns on the Bengals WRs and TEs!

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