💨 Should We Care About October's Weather...In July?!?
In today's Fantasy Life newsletter, we cover what matters when talking about wind in Fantasy Football, 6 ADP misprices, and more.
Maybe if we just think about the cold months ahead, it’ll cool down a bit…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- What Matters When Talking About the Wind
- What Now?! It’s draft szn, baby!
- We’re Back! Fantasy Life returns to Sirius XM today!
- ADP Misprices: 6 Guys You Don’t Want to Avoid
- It’s 7/5. Take it away, Chris Allen…
I started writing about weather effects nearly five years ago and the vibes on Sunday mornings are still the same: high winds cause panic in the streets.
We remember that time Mac Jones only threw three passes, or the time neither Justin Fields nor Josh Allen could eclipse 200 passing yards with the wind whipping through Soldier Field. For most, it’s like a cognitive bias that kicks in when a discussion about bad weather pops up.
And normally, I wouldn’t worry about how we should adjust to contests with strong gusts or high air currents in early July. I mean, we were all grilling meat and watching fireworks just yesterday. As of right now, I can’t even forecast which players will be on the field let alone what the weather will be like.
But since we’re so starved to find an edge in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV contest, the potential for wind and rain along the coasts has some rethinking their draft strategies. Luckily, I’ve been doing some research on the subject and found a couple of things that do matter when thinking about the weather.
📅 Timing
The weather can shift at any point, but subjectively, we associate worse playing conditions with the fall and winter months. Rain turns to snow and soon after we’ve got bigger problems on our hands, like if our players can make it to the stadium and play. Coincidentally, historical trends line up with our feelings about the weather during the final few months of the year.
When games were played at 15+ mph windspeeds (2018-2022)
On one hand, the increased likelihood of running into a matchup with winds over 15 mph while dealing with bye weeks makes redraft leagues all the more difficult. It’s not to say you’re doomed for that week, but it does make best ball leagues seem even more convenient.
On the other hand, the early weeks and playoff time periods have worked out for fantasy purposes. Using game totals and their projections, more contests with winds over 15 mph met expectations during the tail end of the season than during the middle.
- Early Season: 13 of 19 games (68.4%) hit the Over
- Mid Season (70 games): 35.7%
- Playoffs (15 games): 46.7%
In short, timing is everything. Regardless, a bad weather report should force us to further evaluate our players, their projections, and how they win in order to override any concerns about the weather. But there is another component to consider.
🌎 Location
Stadiums can serve two functions. The first is why they’re built: for us to sit in and watch the game. They can also act as a natural barrier against the elements, and some do it better (or worse) than others.
We’ve seen kickers have a tough time at Gillette Stadium with its north end open for gusts to send the ball anywhere. Meanwhile, the Giants hosted the Lions with 21 mph winds in the area, and it looked like a regular day as Jamaal Williams plowed ahead for three scores. So stadiums can play a (small) role and one spot stuck out.
FirstEnergy Stadium stands at 171 feet, and we’ve got a decent sample size of bad-weather games over the last five years to get a feel for what to expect. With names and fantasy ranks, we can start to see who we can rely on when the wind picks up.
- 2019, Week 6: Baker Mayfield: QB7, Russell Wilson: QB3
- 2020, Week 8: Mayfield: QB16, Derek Carr: QB12
- 2021, Week 6: Mayfield QB17, Kyler Murray: QB4
- 2021, Week 7: Case Keenum: QB15, Teddy Bridgewater QB14
- 2021, Week 18: Keenum: QB20, Brandon Allen QB34
- 2022, Week 3: Jacoby Brissett: QB10, Mitch Trubisky: QB15
- 2022 Week 16: Deshaun Watson: QB18, Andy Dalton: QB31
Murray and the 2019 version of Russ (who was sixth in QB rushing) stick out among the passers fighting against the wind. Even Baker had to boogie 35 yards and a score to save his day against the Seahawks. Regardless, how teams fare at each location can also give us a glimpse into which players to bet on when the weather doesn’t go our way.
Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.
What Now? It’s Draft SZN, Baby!
What now? WHAT DO YOU MEAN “WHAT NOW”? This is what we’ve been waiting for!
We made it! It’s draft szn, baby!
Redraft connoisseurs are tuning back in and we can finally rest easy knowing that draft season is right around the corner. It’s time to actually get back into the swing of things. So let’s make sure we’re ready:
📋 Take Inventory
Your spouse will likely be asking how many leagues you’re in come August, so just go ahead and calculate it now. You’ve got your home league, your work league, your Twitter league, your dyna-
Just…figure out how many leagues you’re going to be in for 2023.
Rip the bandaid off now. And leave a little bit of wiggle room just in case you want to join one more before kickoff at 8:20 EST on September 7th.
PSA: Best-ball doesn’t count in our final tallies. We set those and absolutely forget those. No need to report those numbers to corporate.
And while we’re taking inventory… Go ahead and get a head count of everyone that will be returning to your leagues. No one wants to have to scrounge around for a league-mate replacement the week before the draft.
💵 Pay Your Debts
If your league has a loser punishment (and it should…), it’s time the loser pays up. Seriously, it’s been months.
You lost, you frickin loser. And now, you must be punished. Follow through.
Oh, and while we’re talking about paying up… Start saving now so you can pay those league dues on time. Don’t make your commissioner have to remind you with some weird ‘pay me’ playlist.
💀 Get the Skeletons Out of the Closets
It’s time to start stocking up on ammo… the emotional kind. It’s time to refresh your memory, because you’ll need to remind your league soon. Trash talk doesn’t always come easy - stock up now!
Who came in 12th? They need weekly reminders.
Who committed massive waiver wire blunders? We should talk about it in the group chat.
Who blew all of their FAAB way too early? Show them the screenshots. It was bad.
Who traded away Jamaal Williams after Week 6 and missed out on all of those juicy rushing TDs? Don’t let them live it down.
We’re here for a good time, not a nice time.
🧍 Stand Out
August brings us all the promises of a fresh start, but it’s also a time to stand out from your peers. Now, more than ever.
Curate the perfect team name. Start making your list of ‘my guys’ that you refuse to miss out on during the draft. Re-subscribe to all of your favorite fantasy football podcasts.
As the kids would say, “If you don’t stand for something, you’ll fall for another aging RB in the early rounds.”
🌟 Looking for the hottest fantasy sports show on Sirius XM? Look no further!
☠ Apparently sports rivalries exist past the grave. Some things are more sacred than life itself.
🌭 Truly a peak athletic performance. How much could you eat?
📺 Hunting for $3 million dollars. Draft with Ian & Matt at 4pm ET.
🎯 Looks like Jared Goff and his WR1 are in sync. An underrated duo in the making.
🤔 One million dollars or try and gain five yards for $10 million? I’d rather take the million and keep my health.
📈 This QB is on the rise. Are you drafting him?
🚀 We found the best TEs. No, we can’t quit Kyle Pitts yet.
One part of the fantasy football rankings process that is an unfortunate reality is that rankers aren’t incentivized to make any sort of meaningful stands against average draft position (ADP). Everyone becomes a value at some point; being “completely out no matter what” on anybody is nonsense.
I am certainly mindful of ever-evolving ADP while updating Fantasy Life fantasy rankings, but the following six players are just so cheap that I continue to have a really hard time moving them any lower in the ranks despite my high personal rankings.
Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP – and I LOVE the current ADP on the following talents.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson
- ADP: QB11 (pick 99.7)
- Ian’s rank: QB10 (85)
The simple fact of the matter with Richardson comes down to whether or not you think the freakiest athlete we’ve ever seen play the position will be used as an especially high-volume rusher in an offense led by head coach Shane Steichen – AKA Jalen Hurts’ former offensive coordinator.
If your answer to that question is yes, then Richardson’s current ADP looks like a smashing value, especially if Steichen takes a page out of the Eagles’ 2022 playbook and features the 6’4, 244-pound monster on “tush push” QB sneaks.
While it’s (sadly) possible Gardner Minshew gets the initial nod under center, 21 of 26 rookie QBs drafted inside the top-10 picks have gone on to start at least 10 games (average 12.1) since 2010.
It’s a matter of when – not if – Richardson’s dual-threat talents are unleashed at the professional level. The rookie profiles as the sort of asset capable of working as a great fantasy QB even if it takes a bit for him to become a competent real-life passer.
Not drafting one of the elite options in the first four-to-five rounds can leave your QB position low on big-time upside – Richardson is one of the very few later-round options available who could quickly find themselves in that same early-round conversation this time next year.
Commanders RB Antonio Gibson
- ADP: RB32 (pick 101.1)
- Ian’s rank: RB28 (92)
There are three key variables that have caused me to draft Gibson more than any RB not named Jaylen Warren:
Newfound pass-game opportunity: Longtime scat back J.D. McKissic remains an unrestricted free agent. He trailed only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in targets per game from 2020 to 2022. New OC Eric Bienemy helped oversee a Chiefs offense that fed Jerick McKinnon 71 targets last season.
Lack of incoming competition: Washington only added sixth-rounder Chris Rodriguez to the RB room. The grinder caught just 20 passes in five seasons at Kentucky and is a far bigger threat to Brian Robinson’s early-down work than anything.
The steady drumbeat of good news: Last August, Gibson truthers were forced to stomach updates that the former third-round pick was suddenly facing a new reality as a return specialist. Suddenly, head coach Ron Rivera can’t stop finding different good things to say about the team’s 25-year-old back.
The floor for Gibson is as a PPR-friendly RB3 inside of a bad Washington offense.
The ceiling, if Robinson misses time, is as a poor man’s CMC – except this time Washington might really mean it.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson
- ADP: WR32 (pick 62.9)
- Ian’s rank: WR28 (54)
The rationale for fading Johnson at his currently depressed ADP has to come down to people (not me) believing that the 27-year-old WR is not good at football.
A few pieces of evidence that scholars (me) have compiled in an effort to refute this outrageous claim:
Johnson’s scoreless 2022 campaign didn’t provide high-end counting stats, but his first read target share and overall WR score (ESPN) put him in the company of guys like Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett and Tee Higgins.
One only needs to go back 12 months to find a rather awesome 107-1161-8 campaign (WR8 in PPR points per game) that featured plenty of borderline erotic route-running ability.
The Steelers signed up to pay Johnson $18.355 million per year – more than all but 13 players at the position.
Noted WR guru Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception profile of Johnson demonstrates just how good the veteran still was last season.
Priced far closer to this 2022 floor as opposed to his 2020 and 2021 ceiling, Johnson is my most-drafted WR this offseason and profiles as one of fantasy’s cheapest potential target hogs at the position.
Read On For Three More Players Ian Can’t Stop Drafting!
