🎪 The Biggest Story Of The Offseason
It's heating up...
The XFL starts tomorrow if you need your football fix...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- This Lamar Jackson story is heating up
- An update on the Alvin Kamara situation
- Fantasy Fixers: Tennessee Titans
- Futures Bets: 3 Super Bowl longshots
- It's 2/17. Take it away, Peter Overzet.
I didn't think there was any way the Ravens would actually let Lamar Jackson escape Baltimore without a new contract, but there's just enough smoke surrounding the situation that we need to at least consider the possibility.
On Wednesday, Jordan Schultz reported that the team didn't "provide full assurances" to the offensive coordinators who interviewed for the job opening that Jackson would return as the team's QB.
Then yesterday, Jonathan Jones fanned the flames with an interesting report of his own:
Per sources, it’s my understanding that the Ravens did not fully integrate QB Lamar Jackson into the hiring process for their new offensive coordinator.
It's worth noting that long-time Ravens beat reporter Jeff Zrebiec chimed in with a somewhat contradictory report.
Regardless, it's fair to say that the Ravens and Jackson are currently at an impasse. They are reportedly $100 million apart in contract negotiations, which means the franchise tag is currently the only feasible way he remains in Baltimore for 2023.
On the Rich Eisen Show yesterday, Peter King called this showdown the "biggest story of the offseason" and even floated the Jets as a potential destination for Jackson if they whiff on Aaron Rodgers.
It's a fascinating situation with good arguments on both sides...
On the one hand, Jackson has missed over 1/3 of the snaps since becoming the starter in Baltimore, and Dwain recently highlighted his struggles as a passer:
"Of 37 QBs with at least 500 attempts over the last three seasons, Jackson ranks 31st in catchable inaccurate passes (24.7%) and uncatchable inaccurate passes (20.4%), per PFF charting data. Accuracy has consistently been a challenge over the years."
Dwain McFarland
On the other, it's still hard to write off a young, talented QB who has never been surrounded by elite weaponry:
The Ravens rank 31st in $’s spent on RB, WR, TE and o-line since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018.
Points per game rank 2018-2022: 5th
It will be fascinating to see how this plays out. The fantasy landscape hangs in the balance.
Programming Note: Fantasy Life will be taking the next week off to recharge the batteries and restock the Watercooler. We'll be back in your inbox on Monday, February 27th. Until then, make sure you don't miss our big Free Agency previews, as well as our Fantasy Fixers series:
Get prepped for Free Agency...
🤔 Who has made the best hire so far in 2023? Let us know.
💸 An interesting wrinkle with DeAndre Hopkins' contract. This should make it easier to trade him.
✍️ The Giants sign a key cog in their playoff run. He earned it.
⚖️ An update on the Alvin Kamara situation. Drew Davenport breaks it down.
📈 Top five 2023 NFL Draft prospects by position. Bucky Brooks shares his thoughts.
🤷 Wrong formation, no problem. The Chiefs final TD was...an accident.
The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Dwain is here to take on our next project, the Titans...
💪 Team Summary
The Titans were the class of the AFC South from 2019 to 2021, with three playoff berths and two division titles. In a league dominated by the passing game, Tennessee found a way to pile up victories despite dropping back to pass a league-low 53.3% of the time. They weren’t dominating, but they found ways to win.
Team average scoring margin:
- 2019: 4.4 (8th)
- 2020: 2.6 (13th)
- 2021: 3.4 (10th)
In 2022, the playoff streak came to a halt with a 7-10 record as a slew of roster-building missteps by general manager Jon Robinson surfaced. While the team rightly moved on from Robinson in December, the fingerprints of his incompetence still cloud the path forward, thanks to multiple recent draft and free-agency blunders.
What remains is a team designed to win games based on roster-construction strategies formulated when Jimmy Carter was still in office. The Titans can run the ball and stop the run as well as anyone in the NFL, ranking third and sixth, respectively, per PFF grades. Unfortunately, trench warfare is the way of the past, with the best teams focusing on air superiority, an area where Tennessee lags on both sides of the ball.
- 21st in PFF passing grade (64.7)
- 32nd in pressure rate allowed (38%)
- 25th in passing yards per attempt allowed (7.0)
- 63rd and 69th graded cornerbacks per PFF
New GM Ran Carthon helped build one of the most talented rosters in the NFL in San Francisco. Before that, he helped the Rams construct a roster that made two Super Bowl appearances. In order to turn the cap-strapped Titans around, Carthon will need to hit on late-round picks and find cheap gems off the wire – things he has done well in the past.
While the Titans’ first order of business will be trimming the fat on a roster that is currently 29th in available cap space (-$23M), some encouraging young pieces could help the offense rebound quickly in 2023. However, that plan would involve retaining Ryan Tannehill or adding a viable QB to the roster after a dreadful Year 1 campaign by Malik Willis.
🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations
1. Salary Cap Clean Up on Aisle Four, Please
To say that Robinson mismanaged the salary cap would be an understatement. The Titans are hemorrhaging almost 25% of their cap to contracts that should have been avoided:
- Robinson made Bud Dupree the seventh-highest-paid outside linebacker in 2021 by buying into his sixth-ranked 22 sacks over the two previous seasons. Robinson missed the memo on valuing the stickiness of pressures over the volatility of sacks – Dupree ranked 75th in pressure rate in 2019 and 2020 at 11%.
- Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me… In 2021, Harold Landry luck-boxed 12 sacks despite the 39th-ranked pressure rate. Landry had only 14.5 sacks in the previous 32 games, much more in line with his pressure performance.
- Robinson thought he was getting a deal on Robert Woods when he traded a sixth-round pick for the 30.5-year-old coming off an ACL tear. Woods posted seven-year lows in YPRR and TPRR in 2022 with Tennessee. He has cap hits of $14.6M, $16.6M, and $18.4M over the next three years.
We could go on and on here about Robinson’s inability to get roster moves right, but I digress. The good news is that Carthon does have some flexibility, and we have four recommended cuts that will help free up cap space in 2023.
March cuts for cap compliance by 3/15 and free agency flexibility:
- Cut the underperforming Woods and save ~$12M
- Cut underperforming off-ball linebacker Zach Cunningham and save ~$10M
- Cut soon-to-be 32-year-old tackle Taylor Lewan and save ~$15M
June cut to provide flexibility for rookie signings:
- Cut Dupree and save ~$16M
Tannehill is also a cut option. He will be 35 by the start of the 2023 season but is still a starting-caliber signal caller when healthy. From a fantasy perspective, he can support one to two options in the passing game. However, if the Titans make a move for a QB in the draft, they can save another ~$27M by cutting Tannehill after June 1st.
2. Draft an Offensive Lineman or Cornerback in Round 1
There is a chance one of the top QBs will fall to the Titans at pick 11, or they will make a trade to move up. With Tannehill entering his age-35 season, this would make a lot of sense, but in this scenario, we will assume the top options are gone based on the latest consensus big boards.
Offensive tackle Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern is the most-mocked player to the Titans, and he would make a ton of sense for an offensive line that allowed the highest pressure rate in the NFL. Tennessee’s unit used to be one of the best in the NFL, but with Taylor Lewan aging on an overpriced contract and the Titans missing on 2020 first-rounder Isaiah Wynn – who is now out of the league – the team needs a tackle. Skoronski is held in high regard by the scouting community.
Cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon out of Illinois and Joey Porter Jr. from Penn State are both consensus top-10 options that have a chance to make it to the Titans based on recent mocks. However, those two prospects don’t rank as highly as Skoronski with most scouts, and there are quality options in Round 2.
Using the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, I landed Skoronski in the first round and cornerback Emmanuel Forbes in the second round. Forbes is Jeremiah’s No. 21 prospect overall and lands at No. 34 on Brugler’s big board. This combination would be a great start, with two values that also match positions of need.
The final way to fix the Titans...
Early odds are already available for the 2023 season, so it's time to take a peak and see if there's any value to be had in the NFL futures markets. Take it away, Geoff...
The Super Bowl futures for 2024 updated directly after the Chiefs win and put Kansas City as the betting favorites once again at +600. Last year’s losing team, the Eagles, had much bigger futures odds around this time last year than the Chiefs (they opened around +3000 and were available at +2200 or bigger for much of the summer) and gave early investors an easy hedge opportunity in the big game.
For today, we’re going to take a look at some teams with longer odds who can perhaps pay off in similar ways that the Eagles and Bengals did for bettors over the last two seasons. Even if you’re not ready to pull the trigger, these are all teams with decent paths to making a run in 2023-24 and worth keeping an eye on as the off-season progresses.
🔮 Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
The combo of Trevor Lawrence and an aggressive head coach like Doug Pederson give off major Jalen Hurts/Nick Sirianni vibes. The team will be able to build on their playoff experience in 2023-24, and Lawrence is coming off a season where he ranked top 10 in EPA per play (expected points added) among quarterbacks.
The Jaguars will be adding a potential game-changing WR in Calvin Ridley and still have solid draft capital to work with (they have nine picks this year). Jacksonville’s biggest issue will be shoring up the pass defense – without having much salary cap space to work with – but they’ll also benefit from being in one of the weakest divisions, as neither Tennessee, Indianapolis, or Houston have Super Bowl odds shorter than +7500 at the moment.
Watch and see if the Jaguars can resign names like TE Evan Engram and LB Arden Key while adding some depth on defense. If all that transpires, there’s little reason to think the +2500 odds won’t be shorter by pre-season.
🔮 Detroit Lions +2500
The Lions' most likely competition in the NFC North will come from either the Packers (who may be starting the inexperienced Jordan Love at quarterback) or the Vikings, who will have a division winners schedule to deal with and are ripe for regression.
The Lions ranked 28th in total defensive DVOA on the season in 2022-23 but also have four picks in the first two rounds at six, 18, 48, and 55. Offensively, DJ Chark will likely leave via free agency but will be replaced by a potentially more explosive player in Jameson Williams.
The Lions could also choose to spend some of their cap space (they have over 15 million in room as of writing) on a tight end, maybe even poaching Evan Engram from our first pick in the Jaguars.
Either way, the needle should be pointing up for this team next year, as they’ll have their top-five offense from last season fully intact and should be full of confidence after going 8-2 down the stretch.
🔮 Carolina Panthers +5000
Carolina’s hiring of Frank Reich gives the team an experienced offensive-minded head coach who has produced winning records in three of his five seasons as head coach. As we saw last year in Jacksonville, getting someone of that caliber can change the dynamics of a team very fast.
The Panthers also sit in a division ripe for the taking. Three of the teams currently are in flux at quarterback (including the Panthers), and the other in Atlanta has a very thin talent pool at several key positions.
A lot will depend on getting the right fit under center, but the Panthers do have the ninth pick in a draft where many are expecting four quarterbacks to be taken in the first 20 selections. If they hit a home run at that position in the draft or in a trade, Carolina could become the class of this division quickly. Given their recent hire at head coach, that would make them a potentially very live threat in the wide open NFC once the playoffs begin.