🗑️ The Elite QB Who Will Bust In 2022
Plus, a RB sleeper & WR breakout
That new tattoo might have marked the beginning of the end for Aaron Rodgers...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Bold predictions: 1 Bust, 1 Sleeper & 1 Breakout
- The RB1 who won't see as much work this year
- ADP Twins: Darnell Mooney vs. Amari Cooper
- Full Disclosure: D'Andre Swift
- Team preview: Las Vegas Raiders
- It’s 7/8. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
The fantasy crew over at ESPN recently went around the horn to share their favorite sleepers, busts, and breakouts for the 2022 season.
It's interesting to see which players popped up multiple times from different analysts. Here's a couple that caught my eye:
QB Busts - Aaron Rodgers
Eight of the panelists selected Rodgers as a bust and I tend to agree. It's interesting that the Packers SuperBowl odds (+1200; Top 5) and Rodgers' MVP odds (+1000; Top 5) remain high despite the team losing Davante Adams. It doesn't feel like the market has fully caught up to how much more limited this offense will be without Adams and how much they are going to run the damn ball.
RB Sleepers - Travis Etienne
Etienne has been screaming up draft boards after positive videos and reports have surfaced from camp and three of the ESPN analysts slected him as their sleeper choice. Here's Eric Karabell on the Jags sophomore RB:
Etienne boasts Alvin Kamara characteristics as a runner and pass-catcher. He's fast, elusive and a terrific receiver, and injured James Robinson is way behind Etienne in terms of September readiness. Etienne has RB1 upside right now, but he's going in flex range. Be prepared to jump a round or three to go get him.
ESPN's Erik Karabell
WR Breakouts - Darnell Mooney
Two analysts, including Field Yates, selected Bears WR Darnell Mooney as their breakout player. It's easy to see the bull case for Mooney. There's limited target competition and it would be hard for Justin Fields not to improve in Year 2. Yates notes in the piece that "among all players with at least 80 catches, Mooney's 13.0 yards per catch ranked fourth, behind only Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase."
Check out the full list here and read on for more Mooney love from Linda.
🔔 "Being a bellcow running back is what I pride myself on being." Guess which RB said this, hmm.
🕶️ Dallas RB1 or Miami Vice extra? Zeke's looking good, I have to admit.
💼 Uh oh, they are going to "lighten the workload." The words you never want to hear about the RB you selected in the first round.
🛡️ The teams with the best run blocking and pass blocking. NFC East with a nice showing.
🎡 Call your landscaper for the pick?! On last night's Randomzier Draft, Mike Leone had to call up his landscaper to make one of his draft picks. You'll just have to watch to understand.
In fantasy drafts we are forced to make tough choices. In this series, our contributors will help you make ties on these ADP Twins. Today, Linda looks at a pair of WRs going in the mid-rounds.
You know that moment in a fantasy football draft when you’re eye-balling two players with similar potential? In this case, we’re looking at two WRs who are all but guaranteed to be their team's number one target.
Let’s take a look (ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy):
- Darnell Mooney - WR28
- Amari Cooper - WR31
💭 The Rationale
Mooney finished 2021 with 140 targets and the Bears added no one of significance while also shipping off WR Allen Robinson and TE Jimmy Graham.
Cooper heads to Cleveland where WR Jarvis Landry (led the team with 85 targets) and TE Austin Hooper (2nd in team targets with 62) are both off to new teams.
If we continue to look at similarities between the two, Mooney and Cooper will both be on teams that were in the Top 10 in run play percentage in 2021. The Browns finished with the 6th highest percentage of run plays (48.3%) and the Bears finished with the 8th highest (46.7%).
Mooney and QB Justin Fields continue to work on their connection this offseason. The changes to Chicago's coaching staff also have me excited about the potential for this team to move past a horrible 2021. The Bears brought in former Green Bay passing game coordinator and QB coach Luke Getsy as their new OC, which bodes well for Fields.
I am writing this under the assumption that QB Jacoby Brissett starts for all, or the majority, of games for the Browns in 2022. While Cooper has stepped into a leadership role, I expect the Browns to lean even more into their run game with Brissett at the helm. In his two full seasons as a starting QB (2017 and 2019), Brissett has never produced a season-long WR2 finish and Cleveland has a strong RB tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Fields will need to take that year-two leap in 2022, but if he does Darnell Mooney will be the biggest benefactor.
Winner - Darnell Mooney
In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, we have Geoff disclosing his love for D’Andre Swift…
My Guy: D’Andre Swift
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 15.3 (RB8)
Why: There’s no running back with an ADP outside the first round in best ball drafts with better pure upside than D’Andre Swift. Full stop.
Before getting hurt in Week 12 last year Swift was on pace for a 90-catch season. Additionally, if you remove the final two weeks from last year (where he played limited snaps) Swift was one of the most utilized pass-catching backs in the league, averaging 5.1 targets per game (up to Week 12). While his rushing and TD efficiency dropped somewhat last year the Lions as an offense should be tougher to stop in 2022 as they’ve massively improved their receiving core and won’t be as easy to stack the box against. Given the weaker schedule and the potential for more explosive plays, expect both Swift’s ypc and TD-rate to positively regress in 2022.
Yes, we are putting Swift in a pretty hefty class by ranking him in front of Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, and Saquon Barkley but Swift is in a unique situation this year and one that could even translate into a legendary type of season. First, the coaches in Detroit love Swift and seem to recognize the unique player type they have in him. OC Ben Johnson straight up has said the Lions are better with him on the field and RB coach Duce Staley has gone on record about how he wants Swift to play more and ignore minor ailments. This is a huge factor in Swift’s overall potential as getting coaches to pair talent with touches in the NFL is harder than it should be – but shouldn’t be an issue for Swift in 2022.
Coach speak is one thing but the depth chart in Detroit also favors monster usage by Swift in 2022. Third-stringer Craig Reynolds has taken 56 carries in three years and Jamaal Williams averaged 3.9 ypc last year in his first season with the Lions. Whereas other early-round running backs like Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry often take passing downs off, Swift’s versatility (80% catch-rate last year on 78 targets), and the lack of talent behind him, means he’ll likely only be off the field for rest purposes in 2022. It’s worth noting too that he has already established himself as the Lions preferred red zone back, leading the team’s RB core with 31 red zone touches in just 13 games in 2021.
Swift’s best ball ranking has been climbing all summer (he’s now near impossible to get at the end of the second round) but he still makes for an ideal first or second-round turn target for those picking from the 10-12 spot in best ball drafts – where we can pair him with another high-end RB or WR. As long as he’s going after Joe Mixon, who doesn’t play passing downs and took a massive workload in 2021, I’ll consider Swift a superb value and a player I’m actively looking to build Anchor RB or Hyperfragile RB lineups around in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III tournament, this summer.
Like all running backs, Swift is going to have to run well with injury luck in 2022. However, if he does stay on the field, expect him to push for the lead in RB targets, receptions and receiving yards in what should be a more explosive Lions offense in 2022.
Disclosure: Geoff thinks Swift is on the verge of a massive breakout campaign. Don’t be shocked if you find him reaching for Swift above more highly-ranked RBs in best ball drafts this summer.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Jonathan previews the Las Vegas Raiders.
Despite the midseason resignation of Jon Gruden, the Raiders put together a strong 2021 campaign and ultimately finished with a 10-7 record before being bounced by the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs. The franchise heads into 2022 under the leadership of new HC Josh McDaniels with a revamped roster that will attempt to compete in the ridiculous AFC West.
Las Vegas currently has a win total of 8.5 which feels low for their talent level but is due to what projects to be one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Traded for WR Davante Adams
- Traded WR Bryan Edwards to Atlanta
- Drafted RB Zamir White in the fourth round
- Signed DE Chandler Jones and traded for CB Rock Ya-Sin
✨Team Vibes
The Raiders clearly improved this offseason yet may have lost ground within the race for their own division. Although they face an uphill battle to make the playoffs, there should be plenty of fantasy value to be found on this roster.
Davante Adams and Darren Waller project to be the top options in the passing game while Hunter Renfrow will look to build on his breakout performance in 2021. It seems likely that one of these guys will disappoint at their current draft cost (my guess is Renfrow) but they all have enough upside that I wouldn’t suggest fully fading any of them.
At the running back position, Josh Jacobs should resume his role as the primary ball carrier, but the team did decline his fifth-year option and drafted RB Zamir White in the fourth round which suggests his job may not be totally secure. Jacobs actually goes at a somewhat reasonable spot in drafts, but there are too many high upside WRs in that range for me to want to take him regularly.
Ultimately, the success of this team and the players mentioned above will come down to how well Derek Carr plays. If he propels the offense rather than holding it back the Raiders could be a surprise contender in the AFC.
🎯Draft targets
- Darren Waller (Underdog Fantasy ADP 43.1)
- Derek Carr (Underdog Fantasy ADP 106.3)
👋Draft fades
- Josh Jacobs (Underdog ADP 60.5)
- Hunter Renfrow (Underdog ADP 80.6)
If you win your work fantasy league, you legally become everyone else's boss.
Players with more receiving yards than D.J. Moore since the start of 2019:
Cooper Kupp
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Travis KelceThat's it. That's the list.
So Aaron Rodgers got his beautiful long hair, got a dope new tattoo, his girlfriend is a witch, and is going to have a Top 10 defense, and you expect me not to have my hopes up for a Super Bowl.