🥊 The Greatest UFC Card of All-Time?
Everything you need to know for UFC 300
First Wrestlemania 40, now UFC 300? Have I died and gone to heaven?
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NBA Friday: Huge playoff implications in both conferences.
The Masters: DeChambeau leads with Scheffler hot on his tail.
UFC 300: Back the devastating power of Jamahal Hill.
It’s 4/12. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
Just two days. That’s all that stands between us and the end of the NBA regular season.
Well, technically, it’s three days, but since the entire league is off on Saturday, I’m choosing to ignore it.
All 30 teams will be in action on both Friday and Sunday and while some things have long since been decided — looking at you, Celtics — others still have plenty to play for.
Some of the most important battles to watch down the stretch:
🏔 Race for the No. 1 Seed
After beating the Timberwolves on Wednesday, the Nuggets hold a one-game lead over Minnesota and OKC in the standings. That said, their work is far from over.
The Thunder would win a three-way tiebreaker atop the standings, so the Nuggets need to win their final two games to guarantee homecourt advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. They’ll face the surging Spurs on Friday before wrapping up with a beaten-down Grizzlies squad.
Both the Thunder and Timberwolves have at least one tough game left on their schedule, with the Thunder facing the Bucks on Friday and the Timberwolves facing the Suns on Sunday.
🕕 Battle for the No. 6 Seed
The top five teams in the West have all secured guaranteed postseason spots, but the sixth spot remains up for grabs.
The Pelicans secured a huge win over the Kings on Thursday, which puts them in the driver’s seat. They currently hold a one-game lead over the Suns, while the Kings, Warriors, and Lakers have all been relegated to the play-in tournament.
The Pels need a combination of two wins or Suns losses over the final two days to secure the No. 6 seed. Phoenix closes the season with matchups vs. the Timberwolves and Kings, while New Orleans wraps up with Golden State and the Lakers.
🥴 Eastern Conference in Flux
The Knicks are already locked in a guaranteed postseason spot, but their win Thursday over the Celtics improved their chances of finishing second or third. Those spots are particularly important since they guarantee avoiding the Celtics until the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Bucks will likely secure the other top-three spot. They just need to avoid losing their final two games while the Knicks and Cavaliers both win out.
After that… things get a bit complicated.
The Cavaliers, Magic, and Pacers are holding down fourth, fifth, and sixth place, but all three teams could still fall to the play-in tournament. The 76ers are just one game back of the Magic and Pacers, while the Heat are two games back in eighth.
The Magic and 76ers have a huge head-to-head matchup on Friday, and if Philly wins, it opens the door for them to move into the top six. To accomplish that feat, they would need two wins to end the year, combined with two losses from Orlando, Cleveland, or Indiana.
The Heat could still earn a guaranteed postseason spot by winning their division. If they win their final two games — both against a tanking Raptors squad — and Orlando loses their last two, Miami jumps Orlando in the standings.
There are a lot of moving parts, and for a more detailed breakdown, make sure to check out The Athletic’s live blog.
For now, let’s shift gears to Friday. I’ve got my eyes on a few different bets, starting with a big showdown in the Eastern Conference.
🏎 Indiana Pacers +2.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers (-108; FanDuel)
The Cavaliers have a big problem at the moment. Donovan Mitchell has been in and out of the lineup recently while dealing with a left knee bone bruise, and when he’s been on the floor, he hasn’t looked like the same player. He averaged just 14.3 points while shooting 33.3% from the field over a six-game stretch before breaking out in his most recent contest.
Mitchell had 29 points on 9-17 shooting in his last game, but it came against the lowly Grizzlies. Memphis had most of their rotation in street clothes for that contest, so it’s hard to put too much stock in that performance.
Friday’s matchup vs. the Pacers will have a playoff-like atmosphere, and I’m skeptical that Mitchell’s knee is up for it. Indiana has played extremely well of late, ranking seventh in the league in Net Rating over that stretch (+7.4 points per 100 possessions). Cleveland has slumped to a 6-9 record over the same time frame, ranking merely 22nd in Net Rating (-4.4).
This number is down to 2.5 after opening at 3.0, and it wouldn’t shock me if the line continued to move towards the Pacers. I’m locking in the +2.5 now.
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⚾️ Don’t forget about Friday’s MLB slate. Best bets to get you started.
🤑 The complaint against Ippei Mizuhara was released on Thursday, and it was a doozy. The man was putting up SERIOUS volume.
️⛳️ It’s Scottie Scheffler’s world; we’re just living in it. The pre-tourney favorite’s odds shrink following an opening round 66.
🏌️♂️ Bryson DeChambeau leads after shooting seven-under-par on Thursday. It was still only his second most impressive feat of the week.
🐅 13 holes, 1-under par. Tiger Woods showed us (again) why he’s the GOAT.
👑 The best player in baseball? This young stud’s MVP odds are on the move following a two-homer game on Thursday.
💰 Big bonuses = big knockouts? One bettor decided to leverage that idea in the most degenerate way possible.
✈️ Go deep, kid. The Jets may be honing in on this coveted pass-catcher at the draft.
🏈 Only 14 more sleeps till draft day. We have a ton of NFL draft bets up in our tracker already.
UFC 300 has been rightfully dubbed the most stacked card in UFC history, with 12 current or former champions scheduled to compete. Three titles will be on the line, including the headliner, a Light Heavyweight championship bout between Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill. Mark Drumheller unlocks the betting potential of this stacked 13-fight card with his UFC 300 best bets.
🇺🇸 Jamahal Hill ML vs. Alex Pereira (+115; BetMGM)
The total sitting at 1.5 rounds shows the market’s appreciation for the power of both combatants. Pereira has seven knockouts in 11 career fights, while Hill has turned the lights out on four of his last five opponents.
Look for “Poatan” to aggressively go after Hill’s legs and work his way up to the body before unleashing his crumbling left hook. I won’t argue that the champion has a path to victory, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to bet Hill at plus money.
Pereira keeps his hands dangerously low. We saw the champion’s defensive lapses lead to a brutal knockout loss to Israel Adesanya.
Hill’s power is on a completely different level. The former champion can also do serious damage in the clinch, reigning down devastating shots from top position if he takes the fight to the mat.
“Sweet Dreams” knocked out his opponent in 48 seconds in his only other fight as a betting underdog. I wouldn’t bank on this bout ending that early, but I will take a shot that Hill delivers a win once again.
⬆️ Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway Over 4.5 rounds (-125; DraftKings)
Gaethje has made a career thriving in violence, while Holloway recorded one of the most brutal, lopsided beatdowns in UFC history. If you are looking for a guaranteed winner for this fight — it’s the fans.
The consistent money coming in heavy on Holloway is correlated to this one going the distance. Sure, Holloway floored “The Korean Zombie” in his retirement fight, but he hasn’t displayed true knockout power against elite competition in several years. Before that fight, Holloway’s previous eight bouts were all decided by a decision.
Rather than risk my money on whether Gaethje’s leg kicks can prevent Holloway from drowning him out with volume, I am betting that these two gladiators go to war for more than four and a half rounds. Gaethje has finishing upside, but the best bet is Holloway's Hawaiian spirit and granite chin to carry us to the scorecards.