👀 The Last Round Handcuff You NEED
A bad TNF game would have ROCKED last night...
90 days until the Chiefs and Ravens kick off the 2024 season…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
The case for Elijah Mitchell as a late-round fantasy dart
Watercooler: Malik Nabers is already turning heads in New York
Pete’s No Fun Patrol: Chill out, Jameson Williams’ drafters
It’s 6/7. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
You might have heard the 49ers extended Christian McCaffrey the other day. Two years, $38 million, and $24 million guaranteed: Not too shabby for the perennial fantasy football RB1.
You love Christian McCaffrey, we love Christian McCaffrey: Everyone loves Christian McCaffrey (as long as, you know, you’re not playing him in fantasy).
But here’s a question for you: What would happen in Fantasy Land if CMC were to miss time? Obviously, nobody wants that to happen, but just for insurance, er, handcuff purposes, what other 49ers RB would benefit?
Well, The Athletic’s David Lombardi believes the answer is pretty clear:
“Elijah Mitchell is clear #2. All-around back, key is health. If training camp yields a productive RB logjam, it is fair to point out 49ers have previously traded RBs (Breida, Jeff Wilson Jr.) when they've had an excess of depth.”
It’s always possible rookie fourth-rounder Isaac Guerendo makes some noise in camp and moves up the depth chart, but as former third-round picks Trey Sermon (Colts) and Tyrion Davis-Price (Eagles) can attest: Getting John Lynch to draft you hardly guarantees an actual on-field role ever emerging (the early word on Guerendo also doesn’t sound overly promising).
Yes, Jordan Mason deserves credit for besting Mitchell in yards per carry (5.2 vs. 3.7) last season. Also, yes, Head Coach Kyle Shanahan gave the following endorsement last November:
“We look at more than stats. Mitchell’s our number two back. He’s done some pretty good things here and JP’s our three, he’s been our two at times. But it’s how most cases are in the NFL.”
Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane and remember what Mitchell has done during his brief opportunities to lead this offense:
2021: Thrust into the starting job in Week 1 after Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending knee injury on his second carry of the season. Mitchell went on to work as the RB15 in PPR points per game (15).
2022: Suffered his own knee injury in Week 1, and the 49ers had already traded for their new shiny RB by the time he recovered.
2023: Briefly served as the lead RB for the second half of Week 17 as well as for Week 18 after CMC suffered a calf injury. The results? PPR RB19 and RB14 finishes, as well as 32 of the backfield’s 41 total touches.
Mitchell probably isn’t the most valuable handcuff in fantasy; the 49ers have generally refrained from asking much of him as a receiver over the years. That said: We have essentially 16 games worth of evidence that he’s good enough to offer upside RB2 production anytime CMC isn’t around to dominate the action.
With an RB62, pick 200.8 ADP, Mitchell is readily available in the final two rounds of Underdog Best Ball Drafts after the top-28 QBs, top-85 WRs and top-26 TEs are already off the board. He’s the chef’s kiss of any zero-RB build, thanks to both his own handcuff upside and the correlated advantage of your lineup optimizing for a world where CMC doesn’t break fantasy football.
Because, at the end of the day: What else are we supposed to do when a healthy McCaffrey isn’t on our fantasy rosters other than throw a desperate late-round dart or two and pray the fantasy Gods somehow figure it out anyway?
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😬 What could go wrong?? The bear case for these fantasy superstars in 2024.
🩺 Anthony Richardson’s shoulder is sore. “Part of the health journey.”
🐬 Every Dolphins staff meeting starts at the 24th minute of the hour. This is why.
👀 Malik Nabers is making some noise at Giants camp. Nice ball!
🤔 Ex-Giants WR Sterling Shepard has a new home. Hint: No income tax.
🏈 The Chiefs re-sign a Super Bowl legend. What a time to be alive.
🐅 Ja’Marr Chase is pretty, pretty, pretty good. Reception perception.
😮 The biggest edge in 2024 drafts might surprise you. Pete, you have our attention.
It's tempting to get caught up in the euphoria of offseason puff pieces and coachspeak. Today, Pete pours cold water on two players who continually disappoint us…
I believe in second chances when it comes to fantasy football.
I'm willing to get hurt by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Mims again. I'm willing to forgive and forget.
But when it comes to third chances, or even worse, fourth chances? Shame on me and shame on you.
Somehow two of the biggest risers on Underdog Fantasy the past week are two veteran WRs who have continued to disappoint us year after year despite plenty of chances to make their mark.
It pains me to see the truthers and slappies stumble back to their old lovers, not remembering the pain that they had inflicted on them previously.
Today, I'm hoping to steer these lost souls back on the straight and narrow path. It's not too late to search for love in the right places because we absolutely can't do this shit again…
🦁 Jameson Williams: Year 3 breakout??
It was only two years ago that Williams was drafted 12th overall by the Lions and yet it feels like so much longer than that.
The Jameson Williams Experience™ has been anything but a fun time since he entered the league.
His rookie year was mostly wiped out due to the torn ACL he suffered during his senior year at Alabama. He didn't see the field until Week 13 and then didn't play more than 18 snaps the rest of the way.
No biggy, we all thought. It's a redshirt year. Rest up and then we'll all get to enjoy that textbook second-year WR breakout.
It sounded like a nice plan on paper, but Jamo had other plans. And those plans involved gambling on college football games during a team road trip in 2022. I personally have no problem with this behavior, but Roger Goodell and I don't see eye to eye on this one.
Williams was hit with a six-game suspension that was ultimately reduced to only four games when the league office learned that he had shopped around for the best line.
I'm kidding, I have no idea why it was reduced, but regardless … the vibes surrounding Jamo were once again horrendous.
Still, us drafters are a patient, forgiving bunch. We were back on our bullshit last summer, happily drafting Williams in Rounds 9 and 10 while screaming "trust the process" into our pillows at night.
Williams saw his first action in the 2023 season in Week 5 vs. the Panthers after serving his time for placing late-night parlays. Over the next 15 weeks, he cleared 10 fantasy points only two times. Womp womp. It was Joever for Jamo … until it wasn't.
In the NFC Championship game, Williams went full Undertaker dot gif, scoring two TDs and notching 19.7 fantasy points.
We were so back. All it took was one endaround TD run and all was forgiven.
Flash forward to the opening of the 2024 best ball season and drafters were once again tripping over themselves to select Williams in the top-100 picks. Had it not been for that playoff game vs. the Niners, he would undoubtedly be going multiple rounds later. Instead, we were all forced to pay a playoff TD tax to draft him. God bless recency bias.
The hype has not slowed down, either. In fact, it's picked up. Due to some recent comments from Dan Campbell, Williams is up 8 spots in Underdog ADP over the past couple of weeks to pick 87.
Which begs the question, are we really doing this shit again?
We fully expect breakout rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta to take on even bigger roles this year. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-five WR in the league. Why is this year going to be different for Jamo? Because Josh Reynolds is now in Denver?? Get ready to learn Kalif Raymond, buddy.
I'll take a sprinkle of Jamo on teams where I want to set up a double stack with Jared Goff or get access to a San Francisco bringback for Week 17 correlation purposes, but otherwise, this price is silly.
This same type of bounceback copium fueled the selections of Treylon Burks and Rashod Bateman in a similar ADP range last year, and we all know how that worked out.
Justin Fields working with the 1s a bit today
