Tom Brady is NSFW...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Athletic Brewing:

• Tom Brady back in the news
• Buy/Sell/Hold: The recipe for a great Super Bowl party
• The Chargers could make two surprise cuts
• Utilization Report: Super Bowl
• Exotic Bets: Kicking things off...
• It's 2/7. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Tom Brady has no interest in sharing headlines with the Super Bowl.

In fact, he's done everything in his power to jockey attention away from the Chiefs and Eagles this week.

Last Wednesday he announced his retirement from the beach on a windy day, but he really kicked things into gear yesterday.

First, he paid off a bet and posed half naked in his boxer briefs for all of Twitter. This is a family newsletter, so I'll link it instead of embedding. You're welcome for the modesty.

That news was followed up by Brady telling Colin Cowherd in an interview (fortunately fully clothed this time) that he won't begin broadcasting until the fall of 2024:

.@TomBrady tells@ColinCowherd on@FS1 that he will start his broadcast career with FOX in the Fall of 2024.

— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd)
Feb 6, 2023

Like a high school grad struck with wanderlust, Brady will take a "gap year" before sucking it up and entering the workforce where he'll be paid a measly $37.5 million annual salary for his lunch-pail labor.

It's honestly hard to get excited about Brady in the booth when it likely means the end of Greg Olsen, who has been a revelation as a broadcaster, with the No. 1 team. 

For as good as Brady has been in his career, broadcasting is an entirely different animal and it will require plenty of reps for him to become the GOAT in another profession.

Knowing Tom, he's probably up to the task, but FOX would be wise to play to his strengths as Hayden suggests here:

FOX would be better off with putting Tom Brady in an outside of the box role. Those Kobe breakdown videos were elite. Brady doing edited content for the offseason and during pre-game shows would be so sick. Leave Greg Olsen as the #1.

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks)
Feb 6, 2023

If all else fails, Fox could get their money's worth by asking him to broadcast in his boxer briefs.

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With the fantasy season behind us, all we can do is look forward. Let’s talk about fantasy lessons learned during the Super Bowl bye week. Take it away, Cooterdoodle…

🛒BUY

📺 There are “key ingredients” for SB watch parties

Whether you’re a goat at hosting or just want the simplicity of pulling up at kickoff, let’s talk about Super Bowl watch parties. I have personally attended a spectrum of party styles and there are three key ingredients to a killer Sunday. 

1. Bigger is better. I don’t care what your wife says, the mantra is true. No one wants to squint at a tiny television while trying to figure out if it was Jalen Hurts or Miles Sanders who just ran in a 4 yard TD. If you weren’t blessed with a big one, let your friend host. Every inch counts. 
2. No time to be Hangry. While I personally don’t think anyone needs to cut their cheese into footballs or build a stadium charcuterie board, there must be food readily available at all times. And lots of it. Once your friends become hangry, the conversations take a hard turn. Instead of yelling at the referees, they will start to yell at each other. Ask everyone to bring a side, order pizza, it doesn’t matter. This is about quantity not quality.
3. Easy Exit Plan. No one wants the Sunday Scaries to hit post-game. No one wants the emotional hangover that comes with piles of dishes and trash once the guests leave. Put a trashcan in plain sight. Paper plates and plastic utensils are your friend. And if you are the one attending, pick up after yourself, you f*&king animal. 

If you’ll allow me to put my ‘mom hat’ on for a moment: Be safe, kids. Have fun. Drink responsibly. Drive safe. And don’t forget to tell the host thank you!

🛒SELL

😊 I just hope everyone has a good time

After a tumultuous season of fantasy football injuries, embarrassing trades, & NFL drama, the end is nigh. While I support rooting for a particular team and giving extreme fandom one last ‘hoorah!’ it’s okay to just enjoy the spoils of the sport. 

You’re free to root for all players in my book. “GO TEAMS!” as Donna Kelce would say.

I know only one team gets the trophy and picking sides is FUN. But when you realize that some of these guys will never make it to this level ever again, it’s easier to respect the hustle and root for a good game. 

Whoever wins, I just hope everyone has a good time.

📈 The Chiefs lose a WR, but gain a RB. Interesting development.

💪 Great hire by the Vikings. The defense should improve drastically.

❄️ Trent Dilfer is not impressed with modern day QBs. Sorry Tom and Aaron.

✂️ The Chargers could make two surprise cuts. Hmmm.

🥌 The former NFL players taking over the curling world. Yes, you read that correctly.

👋 An all-pro WR retires. I remember when he made an immediate impact as a rookie.

Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Today Dwain dives deep into the data for the Super Bowl, so you don't have to.

🏃 RB – Chiefs Backfield

Isiah Pacheco is the lead rushing option, and Jerick McKinnon is the top passing-down option in the Chiefs backfield. However, determining which player will see the most playing time is a tricky riddle to figure out. 

Over the last two weeks, we have seen two similar game scripts with Kansas City within three points, 65% and 83%, while never trailing by four. Yet, the backfield split has been drastically different. McKinnon dominated 65% of snaps in the first game, but Pacheco led the way at 57% in the second game.

The rookie RB saw a season-high 50% route participation in the conference championship game. We could be dealing with a hot-hand approach – both backs are low-end RB2s with RB1 upside.

🏃 RB – Eagles Backfield

The Eagles ran the ball a whopping 44 times against the 49ers, thanks to a four-point lead on 62% of plays. Kenneth Gainwell beat his season-high from a week ago with a 32% rush share. However, due to blowout conditions, Miles Sanders hardly played in the second half.

Sanders accounted for 56% of the rushing attempts in the first half but only played two snaps in the second half. Sanders remains the lead option, with Gainwell handling passing downs and operating as the closer.

💡 WR – Eagles Receivers and Tight Ends

None of the Eagles’ passing-game options eclipsed eight fantasy points in a game where Philadelphia only dropped back to pass seven times in the second half due to blowout conditions. 

Dallas Goedert led the team with a 25% target share and now has three consecutive outings with 22% or more. This passing attack remains concentrated across A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Goedert.

Quez Watkins continues to share playing time with Zach Pascal in what we can now consider a trend. Watkins hasn’t reached 60% route participation in the last three games.

💡 WR – Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Valdes-Scantling delivered a season-high 23.6 fantasy points on Conference Championship Weekend on a 20% target share. However, the veteran WR only managed a 79% route participation rate despite the Chiefs playing short-handed. 

We could see a similar situation with the WR room in the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs could need Valdes-Scantling to step up in a big way. However, his 13% target share and 1.31 YPRR are WR6 material.

💡 WR – Skyy Moore

Moore registered his best route participation of the season (60%), with multiple Kansas City WRs leaving the AFC Championship game early due to injury.

The rookie’s 20% TPRR is superior to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (14%) and Justin Watson (11%). If multiple WRs can’t go for the Super Bowl, Moore could be the No. 2 target behind Travis Kelce.

We'll be giving you our favorite bets all week long, but today we're getting a little weird. Dalton is here to kick things off with his favorite exotic bet. 

💰 Opening Kickoff to NOT be a touchback +130 (on BetMGM)

49 of 56 opening kickoffs at Super Bowls did not result in a touchback. 

I get it’s not completely fair to add in some of the older Super Bowls in here because of the new touchback rules adopted in 2016, but even in the past six years since the new rule, we’ve seen four of the six opening kickoffs not result in a touchback.

The explanation is simple.

Pat McAfee went on to share that the footballs for the opening kickoff are harder than normal and don’t travel as far due to them being “commemorative” balls.

Even though Jake Elliot and Harrison Butker have combined to hit a touchback on 64% of kickoffs over the last two years, if the ball is different than normal for the opening kickoff, then this changes things.

At plus money, this is a great play.

Andy Reid asked about playing in Mexico City: “The fans in Mexico were excellent. I loved every minute of it. And the food was good too. I loved the Chile Relleno.”

— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Feb 7, 2023