🚀 The QB Whose ADP Is About To Skyrocket
Pack your bags now...
The Madden rankings guy needs to hop in a draft...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Fantasy Football Expo:
- It's Trey Lance Szn
- Reception Perception: Cooper Kupp
- The most popular NFL bet in July
- Team preview: Cleveland Browns
- It’s 7/21. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
After months of speculation, we finally got word that the 49ers have given Jimmy Garoppolo's agents permission to seek a trade.
Jimmy Garoppolo currently has one year left on his deal.
Any team acquiring him would owe him $24.2M in base salary and up to $800K in per-game roster bonuses ($25M max) as things presently stand. twitter.com/adamschefter/s…
We'll have plenty of time to discuss Jimmy G going forward, but the most pressing matter is what is about to happen to Trey Lance's ADP.
Lance was already been one of the buzziest players in best ball circles and settled around pick 80 in Underdog Drafts. But with zero uncertainty about his Week 1 starting status, I don't envision that will last long.
Over the next few weeks, I'd expect his ADP to jump at least 15 spots, flipping Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow, and landing right alongside Jalen Hurts.
Hurts feels like the perfect ADP comp for Lance considering they are both QBs with big rushing upside, though the jury is still out on their passing talent.
We're less than 50 days away from the Thursday night opener between the Rams and the Bills, and I'm already looking forward to watching the Niners duke it out with the Rams twice this year.
The Fantasy Football Expo Weekend is filled with everything you’d expect when a bunch of fantasy football enthusiasts and fans get together for a weekend:
Parties, fantasy drafts, Pro Football Hall of Fame, more parties, and a ton of fantasy football information sharing and networking with all of your friends from the community.
Come and talk fantasy football with 50 of the top experts in the country, including a handful of our very own Fantasy Life contributors, at the only true Fantasy Football Expo in the country.
Panel topics include: redraft, best ball, dynasty, auction, and high stake strategies, as well as discussions on IDP, Devy, sports betting, DFS, and how to get started in fantasy.
Whether you are new to the industry, or a veteran of the space, the Expo is the place to be.
General Admission passes start at $20 and promo code LIFE saves you $20 on Weekend packages.
With Reception Perception, Matt Harmon studies the film on WRs, tracks and interprets the data, and then delivers the goods. Today he is swinging by the Fantasy Life offices to get us hyped on WRs, Take it away, Matt...
Cooper Kupp has long been a solid NFL receiver who was one of the best zone-beaters in Reception Perception history. The 2021 season saw him reach new heights. Yes, the addition of Matthew Stafford obviously helped, but it was clear as day that Kupp also took his individual game to another level.
Cooper Kupp’s absurd 91.7% success rate vs. zone coverage is the second-highest in Reception Perception history, bested only by Antonio Brown in 2014.
Kupp still faces more zone coverage than almost any other receiver thanks to his ultra-unique big slot, almost pseudo-tight end role in the Rams’ offense. That makes his near-historic success rate vs. zone coverage all the more impressive.
No receiver does what Kupp does. Period. Especially when it comes to the dirty work over the middle and as a blocker.
He lined up in the slot on 64.6% of his sampled snaps, in the backfield for 7.4% and was off the line for 70.5%.
Where Kupp launched his game into a new stratosphere was his work against man and press coverage. His 67.6% success rate vs. man and 76.7% success rate vs. press were both by far career-best results. Even if he doesn’t see those coverages as often, the fact he’s now picking up his performance there just makes him that much more difficult to cover. He was one of the most difficult receivers to stop at the line of scrimmage last season.
Kupp has publicly credited some of his ability to dissect coverages and find open holes in defenses to his and his father’s background as a quarterback. Receivers who know what passers like are more unique than you think. This offseason, he spent time on his own studying leverages and when to break off certain routes, in addition to his time spent digging into the game with Stafford. Perhaps all that explains his own individual jump.
In addition to his ability to work open, Kupp has perhaps the best set of hands in the league. Even in contested situations. His 84.6% contested catch rate from 2021 is a top-five mark across the league.
Cooper Kupp remains one of the most unique wide receivers we’ve ever seen in the NFL. He’s a super clean player who proved this year that he can dominate on intermediate and deep routes after being pigeonholed too close to the line of scrimmage with his old passer. Kupp should continue to pile up huge seasons over the next few years.
For more Reception Perception, sign up here... And tell Matt we sent you!
🆕 Tom Brady has a new TE. And it's not Gronk.
☎️ When Russ Wilson texts you this emoji... Now you now what he means.
💸 The most popular NFL wager in July. Didn't see that coming.
🏆 The 4 teams with 3 Top 10 players. Mmm, the premium stacks.
💯 Madden Ratings for all positions. I'm pissed about the Ja'Marr Chase snub.
🐴 More Greg Dulcich over Albert O progaganda. Incredible tweet.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Linda previews the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns finished last season with an 8-9 record and a third place finish in the AFC North. This is where I would normally turn my attention to Cleveland’s 2022 win totals, but there is nothing ordinary about this team preview. Until we get clarity on QB Deshaun Watson’s potential suspension, lines will not be set for the Browns. So let’s look at what we do know.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Released veteran WR Jarvis Landry
- TE David Njoku signed a 4-year contract extension
- Traded a 5th and 6th round pick for WR Amari Cooper
- Signed WR Jakeem Grant to a 3-year contract
- Acquired QB Dehaun Watson for a 2022 1st round pick, a 2023 1st round pick, a 2023 3rd round pick, a 2024 1st round pick and a 2024 4th round pick
- Signed QB Jacoby Brissett
- Drafted WR David Bell in round three of the NFL Draft
- Traded former number one overall pick QB Baker Mayfield to the Panthers for a 2024 conditional pick
✨ Team vibes
While the vibes remain uncertain, we can count on the offensive line to protect whoever is under center. The Browns are projected to have a top-tier offensive line in 2022. This bodes well for the RB tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland rushed for the fourth most yards in 2021 and finished sixth in rush play percentage. They will continue to lean on their RB duo as they navigate the QB situation.
Amari Cooper will undoubtedly be the team's first option on the pass-catching side of the ball. In his seven-year career, Cooper has amassed at least 100 targets in six of those seasons. The five-time Pro Bowler has had over 1,000 receiving yards in five of his seven seasons and is taking the leadership role on his new team seriously.
The Browns will look to the young guns on the team to make up for the loss of Jarvis Landry. Third-year WR Donovan Peoples-Jones saw a bump in targets from 2020 to 2021 but will need to see an even bigger jump in 2022 to find relevance on fantasy football rosters. Rookie WR David Bell will get the chance to produce right away in 2022. The Purdue product was a first-team All-American in 2021 and has size and strength on his side. Plus, he can play both inside and out wide.
In his five years since being a Brown, TE David Njoku has had one TE1 season – in 2018, when he was the team's No. 2 target, Njoku finished as the TE9. We don’t know who the second target will be on this offense, but my money is on Njoku.
🎯Draft targets
- Nick Chubb (Underdog ADP: 25.2, RB13)
- Amari Cooper (Underdog ADP: 66.7, WR31)
- Kareem Hunt (Underdog ADP: 94.1, RB31)
- David Njoku (Underdog ADP: 166.8, TE21)
- David Bell (Underdog ADP: 198.5, WR86
👋Draft fades
- Donovan Peoples-Jones (Underdog ADP: 211.9, WR93)
- Jacoby Brissett (Underdog ADP: 215.9, QB36)
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Sooo 13 days on the falcons and that was all he needed to make up his mind👀 twitter.com/MySportsUpdate…