It's Donna's world, we're just living it...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Athletic Brewing:

• Donna Kelce rules the NFL
• Super Bowl: Rankings & Tiers
• An update on Brock Purdy
• Bets From the Group Chat. Fun first TD bets.
• It's 2/9. Take it away, Peter Overzet.
  

I don't know if you've heard, but Travis Kelce and Jason Kelce are the first brothers to square off in a Super Bowl.

But Travis and Jason are merely footnotes in this historic meeting because this week has been all about one woman. Her name: Donna Kelce.

Ever since Travis uttered the words, "My mom can't lose" from the podium after the AFC Championship game, it's been a runaway train of Momma Kelce media love.

I don't think I've seen an internet glow up this meteoric since Ken Bone rocked a red sweater at the 2016 Presidential debate (just have to hope Donna doesn't have a string of problematic old Reddit posts).

Here's a quick rundown of everything Donna has been up to this week:

• Brought her sons cookies on Super Bowl opening night
• Paraded around Phoenix in a variety of hybrid Eagles/Chiefs apparel
• Went on a tour de force media blitz, including Sports Center
• Asked the first question at Roger Goodell's press conference yesterday
• Became the subject of a petition that lobbies for her to do the coin toss

There's absolutely no stopping this woman. At this rate, Donna will have her own daytime talk show and earn a seat in the Presidential Cabinet by the time the game kicks off.

And if you can find this line at a sportsbook, absolutely hammer the over. I don't care what the number is:

I need to find an over under of how many times Donna Kelce is shown on the Super Bowl broadcast!

— Chad Henne Burner (@CHADHENNEGOAT)
Feb 7, 2023

🏈 Make Big Moves for the Big Game

Small moves? Drinking that same old boring brew you have week after week (and paying for it Monday morning).

Big moves? Creating your own variety pack from Athletic Brewing, the MVP of non-alcoholic, crave-worthy beers.

Why settle for a *insert beer your buddy always brings* when you could enjoy a...

• Run Wild IPA
• Upside Dawn Golden - thirsty just thinking about it
• or Free Wave Hazy IPA

If you need another reason to throw back one of these delicious brews, snag 10% off when you build a case of four or six 6-packs of Athletic Brewing.

Make Big Moves for the Big Game and create your own variety pack (you'll thank us on Monday).

Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge in your Super Bowl contests. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered... 

Quarterback

🥇 Tier 1 – Jalen Hurts

Hurts averaged 26.7 points per game before his Week 15 injury that caused him to miss two games. Over the last three games, his average has dropped to 15.9. However, those three outings present a unique set of circumstances.

Over the last three games, the Eagles have led by four-plus points on 75% of plays and have trailed by that amount 0% of the time. Philadelphia’s half-time lead in each game:

• Week 18: 16 points
• Divisional Round: 28 points
• Conference Championship: 14 points

In the Super Bowl, the Eagles face the Chiefs, who are tied with Philadelphia for the most points per game (28.7). The two teams are also tied for first place in drives converted to TDs with 32% – which sets this game up for very different conditions than their two previous matchups against the Giants and a QB-less 49ers team.

Plus, no lead is safe against Patrick Mahomes – expect Hurts to be closer to his pre-injury 248 passing yards per game.

The Chiefs rank 19th in passing yards allowed per game (221), but most of that ranking ties to leading game scripts. Kansas City allows the sixth-lowest passing yards per attempt (6.0). However, the Eagles are the No. 3 TD-scoring team inside the red zone (69%), and the Chiefs are the third-worst defense in that scenario, allowing a TD 67% of the time.

Hurts might not have a 300-yard passing game, but a multi-score game through the air plus a rushing TD could be in the works. No QB in the NFL handles more of their team’s designed rush attempts than Hurts (23%).

Look for Hurts’ fantasy production to rebound in a big way this weekend with a 25-plus point performance.

Running back

🥇 Tier 1 – Miles Sanders

Sanders hasn’t eclipsed 40% of rushing attempts, and his snap shares are down since Week 17. 

However, due to large leads, the fourth-year RB has only played 23% of second-half snaps over the last three games. The Eagles have played only three second-half snaps without at least a seven-point lead in that span.

With the Eagles only favored by 1.5 points, we shouldn’t expect such a low second-half workload for Sanders. He handled 64% of Philadelphia’s snaps and 55% of rushing attempts in the third-and-fourth-quarter in the regular season when games were within seven points.

No team led by four-plus points more than the Eagles in the regular season. However, in the five games where they led by four-plus on 35% or fewer plays, Sanders averaged 61% of rushing attempts.

The Chiefs are a middle-of-the-pack run defense, giving up a positive EPA run on 45% of attempts (12th). However, they have led by four-plus points the third-most (41%), which has kept teams from consistently testing them. According to PFF, the Eagles have the No. 3 run-blocking unit grade (76.1) going up against the No. 18 graded run defense (62.4).

Sanders should register a high-end utilization game and has a chance to go off against a suspect run defense. While he hasn’t been used much in the passing game this year, his targets per route (TPRR) are encouraging against Kansas City’s primary coverage schemes. A 10% target share isn’t out of the question in this matchup.

Sanders is the No. 1 RB on the slate and has multiple edges lining up in his favor that point to a better-than-average game. Taking the over on 60.5 rushing yards (-110) at BetMGM is one of my favorite props this weekend.

🥇 Tier 2 – Jerick McKinnon

The TD-variance equation has caught up with McKinnon. After scoring an astounding nine TDs over the six-game span, he has come up empty in the last two games. 

As a result, his fantasy production dropped off a cliff. However, his volume hasn’t changed much. Over the six-game stretch, he averaged 10.7 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) per game versus 9.5 over the last two.

The biggest change has been his targets, which dropped from five to two per game. Yet, the underlying utilization data tells us that could come back quickly – McKinnon remains the Chiefs' primary option on passing downs (see LDD and 2MIN Snaps below).

This week against the Eagles, there is a reason for optimism for McKinnon in the passing game. He ranks as the Chiefs' No. 2 TPRR option against Cover 3 (21%), Quarters (23%) and Cover 1 (16%) – the top three coverage schemes deployed by Philadelphia.

McKinnon has scored six or fewer points in eight of 19 contests, but that doesn’t change his ceiling potential. The veteran RB is one of five non-QBs in the Super Bowl with a legit 25-point upside.

Wide Receiver

🥇 Tier 3 – JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster is practicing this week after sitting out all of last week. Assuming this trend holds, he should be in line for 80% route participation. Since Week 13, he has averaged 82%, excluding the championship game when he got hurt.

Smith has faded in the target department down the stretch. However, in those seven games, he averaged 5.1 targets, 4.4 receptions and 44 yards. The receptions and yards both represent significantly better outcomes than the current player props on BetMGM.

The Eagles allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, but the Chiefs have owned top pass EPA defenses all season long (see Patrick Mahomes above).

While Smith-Schuster doesn’t profile as a high-end WR talent anymore, his 18% TPRR and 1.77 YPRR are good enough to consider the overs, thanks to a pass-first offense with an elite QB.

🔪 An update on Brock Purdy. A surgery is scheduled.

🎨 Drawing Jimmy G every day until he gets traded. She doesn't miss.

💰 Two data-backed bets from Dwain. The Utilization doesn't lie.

❓ The betting model from The Athletic is predicting a TIGHT game. Which side are you on?

👴 The Bucs resign an old man tamed Tom. Sorry, not that one.

🪕 Remember Jake Plummer? He looks like he'd like to do an Ayahuasca ceremony with Aaron Rodgers.

📣 GREAT news for Damar Hamlin. Things you LOVE to see. 

🧢 Matthew in a big hat? Matthew in a big hat.

💀 Now this would get ratings. Interesting content play idea from Terry Bradshaw.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for the Super Bowl...All odds via BetMGM

💰 Jerick McKinnon receiving yards (ladder bet)

25+ yards (+115)
50+ yards (+450)
75+yards (+950)

McKinnon has one of the strongest individual projections on Fantasy Life this week. The Chiefs RB is projected for over 35 yards receiving and over 4.0 receptions, which are both well above his seasonal averages. McKinnon was pivotal for the Chiefs in the second half and popped off for his biggest games against the Broncos, who ranked top 10 in defensive pass DVOA. 

SCORE On 3rd & 7, Mahomes to Jerick McKinnon for 14-yd TD
#Chiefs 17#Broncos 14 Q3

— Sᴘᴏʀᴛs 24/7 (@Sports_24x7_)
Jan 8, 2022

The Eagles also have elite edge corners but also allowed 86 receptions to opposing RBs this season, which is only seven less than the Broncos. Overall, McKinnon has also gone for 50 or more receiving yards four times in his last 11 games now (a 36% success rate) which is much better than the 18% probability rate on the +450 odds for 50+ yards. 

Ladder betting McKinnon in this market from 25+ through 75+ yards gets us exposure to some great payouts if he hits his higher totals and we can also balance our bets to ensure some profit if he only hits the first alternate line (25+ yards at +115). 

Considering the matchup and McKinnon’s past success rate in this offense, this is the exact kind of player and odds we want to attack if employing this betting strategy for the big game.

💰 Jalen Hurts to throw exactly 0 TDs (+375)

This bet is a very simple value proposition. Hurts has thrown for zero TDs now in 12 of his last 33 games as a pro (regular season and playoffs). That’s a 36% success rate on a decent sample size, and far bigger than the 21% implied probability the +375 odds are assuming. 

The Chiefs' rush defense is also potentially the weakest unit in this game. They ranked out as just 15th in defensive rush DVOA while having the easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses in the league this season. 

It might sound boring but the Eagles may not need to take many chances inside the red zone this week – especially if they have success early on – so fading Hurts as a passer has merits, especially at the current odds.

💰 First TD market: Miles Sanders (+800) & Noah Gray (+4000)

First TDs are a fun market to play but highly volatile. If you’re playing, make sure to keep unit sizes reasonable. For the big game, we highlighted a couple of favorite targets from each team below…

💰 Eagles - Miles Sanders +800

The Eagles rushing offense was ranked first in offensive DVOA this season and ran for 32 TDs as a team, eight more than second-place San Francisco. 

Ten of Sanders’ 11 rushing TDs came when the Eagles were in the red zone, so any quick start by Philadelphia on offense will likely lead to at least a couple of Sanders rush attempts inside the 20-yard line. 

It’s always tempting to look for bigger odds in this category, but I wouldn’t bet on Philadelphia getting too tricky early on inside their opponent's 20-yard line. They should want to assert their dominance on the ground and the best way to do that would be to have Sanders blast his way into the end zone on their first drive. 

💰 Chiefs - Noah Gray +4000 

The Chiefs are a far more enticing team for some long-shot plays in this department. They don’t have a true WR1 and aren’t nearly as good a rushing offense, making it likely we could see Andy Reid script a trick play for the first drive. 

TE2 Noah Grey has caught at least one pass in 18 of 19 games played this season and should benefit from the team’s banged-up receiving core. He played on 68% of the snaps last week and caught at least one pass in 16/17 games this season. At +4000 odds we get a player who could be in for an expanded role this week and will only need to make a small investment to gain access to some big profits if he hits.

💰 Big game, big Single Game Parlay (SGP)

Single game parlays are a great way to have some fun with a smaller investment. These are incredibly difficult to hit, but at bigger payouts you also don’t need to invest much. We went big for the Super Bowl and put together a juicy +3000 SGP on BetMGM below.  

This ticket already blends together a couple of favorite targets in Jerick McKinnon and Miles Sanders. Logically, if Sanders does get in the end zone it could mean the Chiefs are forced to pass more and therefore give us a better chance that McKinnon’s receiving upside is unlocked this week. 

With all SGPs, it’s also best to think about how you see the game playing out from an outcome perspective. If the Eagles were to have early success on the ground with a Miles Sanders TD, it should open up more big play opportunities for a player like Kenneth Gainwell – who has been instrumental for them down the stretch. 

Gainwell has benefitted from the Eagles blowing out teams, and 17 of his 26 carries this post-season have come with his team up three+ TDs. So if you don’t envision an Eagles win, he’s perhaps someone to leave out. However, Gainwell does pass the eye test from an explosiveness perspective. 

That burst from Gainwell 😮‍💨

— Aidan Doc🧸 (@AidanDoc_)
Jan 28, 2023

He has also played over 35% of the snaps now in four of his last six games and will have a great matchup this week against a mediocre rush defense. As a single-game add, he makes sense to balance out this parlay which leans towards the Eagles and Chiefs RBs having success in their respective specialties.

They should have a football game with ordinary guys immediately before the Superbowl so we can truly appreciate how talented NFL players are

— jeFF (@TheFantasyEng)
Feb 5, 2023