🌟 The Star WR You Forgot To Draft
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we highlight a star WR going overlooked, 4 sleeper TEs to target, and Sam Holt's breakout TE.
"Oh your boyfriend’s a doctor? Well my boyfriend is now the coach of an imaginary football team for the next 4 months..." (h/t)
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the FFPC :
- The star WR who went overlooked
- 4 sleeper TEs to draft
- The Round 2 RB who might be fool's gold
- Diving into waivers: Sam's 2 pickups
- Sam Holt's favorite breakout TE
- It’s 9/6. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
We're starting to get bits and pieces of news hinting at who will be starting in Week 1. Here's a quick roundup of everything you need to know...
* Chris Godwin on track for Week 1? Godwin continues to defy the odds as he recovers from knee surgery that took place in January:
Another encouraging step for Bucs receiver Chris Godwin, who is now practicing without a brace on his knee as he works his way back. He’s the one without a jersey on in the middle:
Regardless of whether Godwin is ready Week 1 or not, his 5th round ADP is going to look hilarious in retrospect. If you happen to still have a draft left, he's a priority target until other drafters wake up.
* Steelers name their QB starter? Nothing official has been announced, but the team did release a depth chart:
Steelers release depth chart: Trubisky, Rudolph, Pickett
It would be quite the rug pull to start Pickett after that, though Mitch Trubisky swears the official announcement hasn't been made. Regardless, I'll set the o/u on Week 4 for when Kenny Pickett takes over.
* Allen Lazard could miss Week 1. Coach LaFleur was "non-committal" on Lazard's availability for Week 1. He's been sidelined the past week for undisclosed reasons. Yesterday, we mentioned how wide open this depth chart was, and it would be really open if Lazard misses. All four other Packers WRs--Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb--should be rostered in most leagues until we learn more. Counterpoint: there's this.
* Zach Wilson might play? We had been working under the assumption that Joe Flacco would get the nod, but Coach Robert Salah said it's "possible" Wilson starts Week 1 vs. Baltimore depending on how his knee responds.
* Michael Gallup will not be playing Week 1. He's had no setbacks in his recovery from a January ACL tear, but won't be practicing or playing this week. Noah Brown will likely fill in.
* WRs back at practice. Despite some lingering concerns, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and Drake London were all at practice yesterday.
We'll keep you posted as the week progresses...
Hey fantasy players! Have you been looking for a place to play season-long fantasy football? Well you should check out our friends at the FFPC.
The FFPC has been around since 2008 and is a licensed fantasy operator with a huge selection of season-long leagues and contests. They've got best ball leagues starting from just $5. Want to step up from there? No problem, they've got several best ball and season-long contests with multi-million dollar prize pools and their flagship contest, the FFPC Main Event, has a ONE MILLION dollar grand prize.
They've also got a huge selection of dynasty startup leagues and much more. New users get $25 off their first entry. Simply click here and create your account!
💤 4 Sleeper TEs for 2022 FFPC Drafts
FFPC scoring is famously TE-premium (1.5 points per reception). It’s a very fun wrinkle that makes the position a viable target at basically every juncture of the draft.
Whether you grab an Elite TE or not, there is merit to grabbing multiple TEs in this format because you can start up to three TEs weekly thanks to the two FLEX spots.
In a recent Main Event draft we did on Ship Chasing, we punted TE until the 12th round–a dicey proposition–but made up for our lack of quality with quantity and drafted five total TEs.
The beauty of “cranking purple” as we call it (TE picks appear in purple on the FFPC draft board) is you can simply cut the ones who don’t pan out and keep any extras for flex consideration.
Here are my 4 favorite sleeper TEs for FFPC drafts:
💤 Gerald Everett (TE17) - TE scoring is heavily correlated with good QBs and good offenses and Everett checks both of those boxes with Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This target is a classic “don’t overthink it” situation. Who knows if there will be a 2021 Dalton Schultz or Rob Gronkowski in 2022 (cheap TE tied to an elite offense), but if there is, it’s probably Everett.
💤 Isaiah Likely (TE23) - Likely burst onto the scene over the past few weeks as a preseason MVP, but there is staying power here. The Ravens clearly want to run lots of 2-TE sets with their lack of WR weaponry, which means Likely could be useful right out of the gate in addition to having massive contingent value in the event of a Mark Andrews injury.
💤 Mo Alie-Cox (TE29) - There have been lots of positive indicators for Alie-Cox over the past few weeks, including playing all 13 snaps with the first-team in the Colts final preseason game. The pass-catching depth chart is wide open after Michael Pittman and Matt Ryan has long loved targeting his TEs.
💤 Trey McBride (TE37) - I’ve been surprised how little interest drafters have in McBride, the first TE to come off the board in the 2022 draft. Zach Ertz is getting old and currently dealing with a calf injury and McBride's preseason usage was encouraging. The Cardinals spent a 2nd round pick on him, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get on the field early and see his role grow as the season progresses.
🍺 You didn't draft enough of this RB. The buzz is still building heading into Week 1.
🍭 The Round 2 RB who might be fool's gold. This projection would certainly change things.
⁉️ What's going on with Odell Beckham Jr.? The door is still open...
🤣 2 hilarious last place punishments. Don't let this (or this) happen to you.
🔮 My bold predictions for the top fantasy player at each position. Go tell me why I'm wrong.
📅 Don't miss out on our upcoming Discord events. Loaded schedule.
Waivers are a critical component of fantasy football, and nabbing the next league winner ahead of your league mates can help you edge out that title. Each Tuesday, Sam Wallace will highlight players to target in your redraft leagues. Here are two players who shouldn’t start the season on waivers...
I'll be using ESPN's "percentage rostered" data. Players are listed in order of priority, by position. Only players who are available in at least 75% percent of leagues are considered.
➕ Rachaad White (Available in 87.3% of leagues)
Rookie RB Rachaad White checks multiple boxes. He’s a Day 2 pick who brings a strong production profile (especially in the receiving game) to an elite offense, and there are rumblings that the team wants to scale back Leonard Fournette's workload.
He posted a 75%+ percentile mark in several categories:
- 40-yard dash
- Broad jump
- Vertical jump
- Speed score
- Explosion
Three of White’s closest comps based on college production and athleticism are Giovani Bernard, LeSean McCoy, and Duke Johnson; all elite pass catchers.
Fournette is the unquestioned starter, but White is an enticing backup who could rotate further into the lineup as the season progresses.
➕ K.J. Osborn (Available in 94.4% of leagues)
A new offensive system is exactly what WR K.J. Osborn needs to take that next step.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the 2021 Rams ran 3-WR sets 86% of the time. Courtesy of RotoViz, they ran no-huddle on 15% of their plays.
On the contrary, the Vikings ran 3-WR sets 54% of the time and no-huddle on just 5% of their plays.
Former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell is now the head coach in Minnesota and will be bringing over a similar offensive scheme.
Osborn showed an ability to be productive on a run-first offense. In essentially 6 games without WR Adam Thielen, Osborn averaged 13.5 points/game last year. Thielen, who is entering his age-32 season, has struggled to stay healthy.
Osborn is a prime candidate for added opportunity and could see a massive workload if Thielen were to miss additional time.
Drafting safe ain't it. We need to be taking big swings to win our leagues. Today, Sam Holt shares two players she thinks are primed for a breakout...
🚀 AJ Dillon (RB19 on Underdog Fantasy)
Starting 2022 off strong with my absolute favorite breakout candidate, AJ Dillon. There’s a lot more to love than his quads that are twice the size of my torso.
After the Davante Adams trade, the Packers were left without a clear target monster. Thankfully Aaron Rodgers still has his trusted RB duo of Aaron Jones and Dillon, of which Head Coach Matt LaFleur has referred to as “1A and 1A” in their offense.
Both RBs are excellent candidates to benefit from the targets left behind by Adams, of which the WR had 169 in 2021. Jones finished as the 8th most targeted RB with 52 receptions on 65 targets last season. While Dillon finished only 42nd in targets, he was extremely efficient having 34 receptions on 37 targets. The floor is very high for potential targets to greatly increase for both RBs.
While Jones caps Dillon’s target potential, he stands to benefit most in the red zone. He finished 15th in RedZone attempts last season, with 104 rushing yards and five TDs in the space. He had more rushing attempts in the red zone than Jones, with 39 attempts to Jones’ 34. I see all of these rates taking a bump up in 2022.
Of the two Packers RBs, Dillon has the most potential to be the leading goal line back this season, and I predict he doubles his red zone TDs to 10 this year.
🚀 Cole Kmet (TE11 on Underdog Fantasy)
Cole Kmet is my favorite TE breakout candidate for this season, and he’s a steal in drafts this year as the 12th TE off the board and is being taken as late as the ninth round. After Allen Robinson II signed with the Rams, I would have expected the Bears to sign an additional WR to take the pressure off Darnell Mooney and to give Justin Fields additional weapons. But, aside from signing N’keal Harry, who will start the season on IR, no other significant moves were made.
The only downside for Kmet from last year was he didn’t have a single TD. However this TD drought has to end in 2022. Last season Kmet finished as the 8th most targeted TE, tied with Darren Waller, at 93 targets. Kmet finished 9th at the position in receptions of 10+ yards, with 31 catches. Plus, he even tied with Kyle Pitts in red zone targets.
Adding necessity to the argument, the Bears have the second to last ranked offensive line this season according to PFF. Fields is going to be under immense pressure and needs to get rid of the ball early and often. Especially since the equally low-ranked defense, yes, they also ranked second to last, allowed opponents to run up the score. All of which suits Kmet’s skillset as he was the 9th highest TE to be Targeted within 10-19 yards. Given the consistency in which Fields looked to Kmet in short yardage opportunities and that they’ll be playing from behind consistently, volume and opportunity are in abundance for Kmet this season.
It’s time for a fictitious football team to dictate my mental health for the next several months.