Burrowhead, my ass...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bud Light:

• 4 tests, only 2 teams pass
• Bud Light Six Pack Recap: Top performances
• OverReaction Monday. Purdy disappointing.
• Betting First Look. Fly Eagles, fly.
• It’s 1/30. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

The Super Bowl is set:

After two games, a couple handfuls of injuries, some questionable penalties, and even a few donnybrooks (yes, I said donnybrook), the Eagles (-2.5) and Chiefs will square off in Arizona in two Sundays.

We'll have plenty of time to break down that matchup over the coming weeks, but before we do, let's unpack how we got there...

The Conference Championships were all about teams getting pushed to their breaking point and seeing who could survive the stress test...

📚 Niners Test: Can you win with no QBs? 

The Niners weathered the storm after losing Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo in the season, but even they couldn't survive both Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson sustaining in-game injuries vs. the Eagles yesterday.

2022-2023 49ers...

QB1: Trey Lance
QB2: Jimmy Garoppolo
QB3: Brock Purdy
QB4: Josh Johnson
QB5: Christian McCaffrey

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself)
Jan 29, 2023

Grade: F

📚 Bengals Test: Can you win with no offensive lineman? 

The Bengals got by without three of their offensive lineman (La'el Collins, Jonah Williams, and Alex Cappa) in their Divisional Round tilt vs. the Bills, but could not survive the unrelenting Chiefs pass rush in their biggest game of the year.

Burrow sacked 5 times and hit 12 today.

How did the Bengals watch what happened to him in the Super Bowl and not invest everything in improving the offensive line?

— Ryan Phillips (@RumorsandRants)
Jan 30, 2023

Grade: D+

📚 Chiefs Test: Can you win with no WRs? 

The Chiefs pushed the upper bounds of what is possible without any healthy receivers. There was a point in the game where Kadarius Toney (hamstring) had exited, JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) limped off, and Mecole Hardman (pelvis) had missed time.

Patrick Mahomes, who of course entered the game with his own nagging ankle injury, was left to throw to the following WRs: MVS (more on him below), rookie Skyy Moore, and an individual named Marcus Kemp, who I didn't even know was on the team. 

Patrick Mahomes completed every pass he threw from outside the tackle box, on the run (8+ mph) and when holding for longer than four seconds:

🔸 Outside Box: 6/6 (+31.4% CPOE)
🔸 On the Run: 6/6 (+21.0%)
🔸 Extended Dropbacks: 6/6 (+23.0%)

#CINvsKC |#ChiefsKingdom

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats)
Jan 30, 2023

Grade: A-

📚 Eagles Test: n/a

As for the Eagles, well, they actually haven't been pushed at all. In fact, you could argue their path to the Super Bowl has been laughably easy:

Philadelphia#Eagles

Week 16 - lost to Dak Prescott
Week 17 - lost to Andy Dalton
Week 18 - beat Davis Webb (barely)
Week 19 - bye
Week 20 - beat Daniel Jones
Week 21 - beat Josh Johnson

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB)
Jan 29, 2023

But the Eagles don't determine their schedule. They can only play the hand they've dealt and they've played that hand exceptionally well.

Grade: Pass

Peter is here to share his six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Pete...

🍺 1. Mahomes & Kelce, never in doubt

Mahomes came into this game with a high ankle sprain and Kelce was a true GTD due to back spasms. And yet if you just checked the box score, you'd never have thought anything was wrong. Kelce dropped one of his typical 7-78-1 lines, while Mahomes threw for 326 yards and 2 TDs. 

You know the 'ol meme, "Name a more iconic duo...I'll wait"?? Well, it's not a meme with these two.

Oh, btw, don't poke the bear next time, Cincy:

KELCE 😂

@tkelce@Chiefs

— NFL (@NFL)
Jan 30, 2023

🍺 2. The Eagles run on the Niners?!

You can't run on the Niners, they said. You'll need to throw the ball to succeed against the No. 2 run defense in the league, they said.

There wasn't a receiver who posted more than 36 yards in this game, but it didn't matter with Miles Sanders (11-42-2), Kenneth Gainwell (14-48), Boston Scott (1 TD), and Jalen Hurts (11-39-1) all getting it done on the ground. 

Credit to brilliant coaching and offensive line play for getting it done. The Chiefs will have their hands full in two weeks.

🍺 3. MVS? More like MVP (sorry)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a punchline for most of this season (career?), failing to step up even when opportunity knocked. But he delivered when it mattered the most yesterday, compiling 6 catches for 116 yards and 1 TD, as well as a couple key first downs to keep drives alive.

You can certainly take the cynical route on this performance, but you can't deny how well he played. This catch was sick.

🍺 4. CMC can only do so much

With the Niners out of QBs, the entire world knew what the play calls were going to be for San Fran. And even then, the undisputed best RB in football found a way to keep his team in the game.

Without Christian McCaffrey's 15-84-1 on the ground and 4-22 through the air, this Eagles route could have been even worse. His TD run, in particular, showcases just how talented he is.

The Niners might be done for the year, but there's plenty of fantasy fun yet to come in 2023.

🍺 5. Tee Higgins returns from purgatory

Higgins had essentially disappeared the past few weeks, but made his presence known in the AFC Championship game.

His TD catch was unreal and of the "grown ass man" variety:

TEEEEEEE 🔥

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Jan 30, 2023

Higgins finished the day with 6-83-1, handed his TD ball to his mom, and silenced anyone questioning his ability to still deliver elite performances alongside Ja'Marr Chase. Speaking of Chase, he had a sick catch, too.

🍺 6. Isiah Pacheco sure looks the part

He didn't stuff the box score per se (10-26; 5-59), but Pacheco ran like a bull in a china shop, picked up some important first downs, and even surprisingly took over for Jerick McKinnon on a lot of passing down snaps.

I believe the kids would say that Pacheco "has that dog in him":

Isiah Pacheco runs like he’s angry at the ground.

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens)
Jan 30, 2023

🩺 A star RB just had surgery. But no need to panic.

🔍 Tom Brady Watch: 2023. Here's one destination you can rule out.

🧀 The end of the road for Rodgers in Green Bay? Sure seems like it.

🚑 Uh oh, bad news out of Arizona. This isn't good.

🧦 Pray for our very own Cooterdoodle. She needs it.

🎤 Give Travis Kelce the mic. So good.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this series, Kendall leads us in overreacting to this weekend's action...

🍑Burrowhead my WHAT?!

If you didn’t see one of the most entertaining postgame interviews, well here you go. 

It ultimately came down to the final seconds and a stupid penalty. Really when you think about it, that was a horrible ending to a great game. What did we know all along with Patrick Mahomes? He wasn’t going to be as mobile with the high ankle sprain. But of course this game ends with Mahomes scrambling for a first down and getting pushed late out of bounds by Joseph Ossai — prompting an unnecessary roughness penalty that gave Harrison Butker the chance to kick a 45-yard field goal with 3 seconds left. 

Yes, he made it. Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs are going back to the Super Bowl. Maybe the Cincinnati Mayor will stop calling Joe Burrow Mahomes’ daddy now?

The referees were very questionable and there will be a lot of things to break down between now and the Super Bowl, but it was an entertaining game and saved our Sunday.

Bahamas, anyone?

😥 Purdy Disappointing

See what we did there with that title?! COME ON. That’s a good one! 

Alright, I don’t actually think San Francisco's loss is directly related to Brock Purdy. However, it did end up being a pretty disappointing game between two high powered offenses AND defenses. 

The 49ers were already “down” to their third-string quarterback in Purdy, but he suffered a right elbow injury on just the sixth offensive snap. Then the team had to turn to fourth-string quarterback Josh Johnson, who eventually suffered a concussion and was ruled out of the game. It was bad from the beginning. At one point we almost got Christian McCaffrey at QB!

It seemed like the 49ers couldn’t catch a break. They went far and overcame a lot, but this loss had to hurt. Even head coach Kyle Shanahan couldn’t adapt enough to put the 49ers back in that game.

And now the Eagles have sealed the franchise's fourth Super Bowl appearance (second in five years) and we get to see MVP candidate Jalen Hurts in action under the brightest lights. He hasn’t had to do much in the past two games — 275 passing yards, 73 rushing yards and four total touchdowns. He is now the eighth quarterback to lead a team to the Super Bowl before his 25th birthday.

Disappointing or not, just don’t be like this guy. Cheers, Eagles fans.

Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday, our betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets. Here's what he likes for the Super Bowl. All lines from BetMGM...

💰 Eagles -2.5 (vs. Chiefs)

The line movement in Super Bowl LVII has been fast and furious. The Chiefs actually opened as slight favorites over the Eagles, but things have moved drastically in Philly’s favor. They’ve moved all the way to -2.5 on BetMGM, so they’re on the verge of hitting a key number. I’m not sure if it will ever actually get to 3.0, but as long as it stays under a field goal, I think the Eagles are the correct side.

It’s true that the Eagles have not really been tested this season. They breezed through the regular season, posting a 14-1 record with Jalen Hurts in the lineup. Only six of those games came against playoff opponents, and four of them were against divisional rivals. The Giants weren’t exactly a playoff-caliber foe, while the Cowboys were missing Dak Prescott for one of those contests.

Things weren’t much tougher for the Eagles during the postseason, and they caught some more good luck vs. the 49ers. The 49ers lost both quarterbacks to injury, leaving them with zero passers in the second half.

Still, I was impressed with the way the Eagles played. After all, it’s not like Brock Purdy, and Josh Johnson got hurt on the sidelines. They were injured as a result of the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush, which generated multiple big plays.

That could spell trouble for Patrick Mahomes, who was visibly hobbled against the Bengals. He played admirably in the team’s win, but his mobility was severely compromised. The Bengals were only able to get three sacks on Mahomes, but the Eagles were first in the league in adjusted sack rate. The Bengals were 28th in that department, so this represents a serious step up in weight class.

Additionally, the Eagles should be able to lean on their consistently excellent ground game. They weren’t quite as dominant as usual against the 49ers, but they were the best team in the league against the run this season. The Chiefs were 19th in terms of yards per carry allowed, so they could dominate in the trenches.

The Chiefs are going to be fully prepared for this contest, and Andy Reid is known for his work off a bye. He’s 28-4 after a bye week in his NFL career, and the extra time should help Mahomes get a bit healthier. Still, the Eagles have been the most impressive team in football this season, and their roster is simply better than the Chiefs’ from top to bottom.

And so it begins…

— The Collectibles Guru 🧠 (@ericwhiteback)
Jan 30, 2023