If you aren’t training on a beach with your QB right now, I’m fading you in drafts…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

• Updates on Dalvin Cook and DeAndre Hopkins
• The 2nd-year WR ready to become a superstar
• Biggest ADP Movements: 2 WR risers
• Team Preview: Denver Broncos
• It’s 6/29. Take it away, Peter Overzet

We are only a few weeks away from training camps kicking off and reshuffling depth charts, but we still have two remaining puzzle pieces to put together before the drafting landscape fully comes into focus.

Here are two key updates on intriguing free agents, Dalvin Cook and DeAndre Hopkins…

🧩 Where will Dalvin Cook land?!

The worst-kept secret in the NFL right now is that Cook would love to return to his hometown of Miami and play for the Dolphins.

The problem, however, is that the Dolphins—who just drafted Devon Achane 84th overall and retained Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. in free agency— have no interest in giving him the amount of money he’s seeking:

It seems extremely unlikely that the Dolphins will cave before the season starts, so the real question is how long is Cook willing to wait for a team to get desperate? Is he prepared to wait until in-season?

The other team who remains in the mix is the New York Jets, with Head Coach Robert Saleh recently fanning the rumor flames when asked about Cook:

We'll turn the stones over on that one…

Robert Saleh

Sure, that loosely translates to “doing due diligence” but not shutting down the rumor implies that there is some level of interest.

The Jets also have $23 million in cap space, so they could theoretically make it work money-wise as they push their Super Bowl chips all-in with Aaron Rodgers.

And yet, Cook doesn’t bring much to the table if Breece Hall, a second-year RB who looks poised to make the leap to superstardom if his ACL holds up, is ready for the start of the season.

🧩 Where will DeAndre Hopkins land?!

Not to be outdone by the Cook rumors, Hopkins is still weighing his options, per Sal Paolantonio on ESPN Radio:

We’ve known that the Patriots are the leaders in the clubhouse for a while (although the new contract they just dished out for DeVante Parker could indicate that is less likely), and there’s always been the obvious Browns connection because of Deshaun Watson.

But the Panthers? That’s a new one.

Although, one thing is clear with Hopkins if he’s considering the Patriots or Panthers:

He does not care about winning a Super Bowl.

Like with Cook, whoever ponies up the most will likely secure his services.

Back to playing the waiting game…

🌴 Early best ball trends vs. 2022. It’s hot WR summer…

🏆️ Justin Jefferson is pacing for a historic career. Insane numbers.

🌊 Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers training on the beach? Best shape of their life…

🧀 A second-year WR ready to become a superstar? Good company here.

🎯 More gambling-related suspensions on tap. The Colts are in the crosshairs.

📆 Training Camp dates for all 32 teams. It’s almost here…

😮 If you’re trying to stop drafting a Saints rookie RB…don’t read this.

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DRAFT NOW!

Hot Best Ball Summer rolls on, and some of you degenerates are several hundred drafts deep (nice work, now go touch some grass). To keep you ahead of the field, Sam Wallace looks at the biggest ADP risers and fallers on Underdog since June 1st and identifies actionable takeaways.

📈 Biggest ADP Risers in June

🔥 Parris Campbell (ADP Change +31.8)

If players start climbing up draft boards, it’s going to come at the expense of others. The biggest riser over the last month coincides perfectly with our biggest faller. More on that later.

While his rookie teammate plummets in value, Parris Campbell has seen his value increase two and a half rounds.

Campbell only played 15 games across his first three seasons, but he put the injury bug behind him and played all 17 games last year. Fantasy managers took notice and are finally giving the talented wideout a chance.

His line of 63 / 623 / 3 on 91 targets doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but his WR48 finish last year is more than 30 spots higher than where he’s being drafted now. There’s still value to be had if you’re late to the best ball party given how Campbell was deployed.

No wide receiver ran more routes out of the slot than Campbell last year (521), per PFF. The Athletic’s Dan Duggan said it looks like Campbell “will be a featured piece of the offense.” As it sounds, the starting slot role appears to be his for the taking.

The Giants have a crowded if underwhelming, wide receiver group including rookie Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, and Isaiah Hodgins. Even if Campbell continues to trend up draft boards (WR78), I’ll gladly keep drafting him as a cheap piece of a decent offense.

🔥 Rondale Moore (ADP Change +27.4)

This one surprises me. Rondale Moore was all the rage coming out of Purdue a few years back, but he just hasn’t found sustained success in the NFL. He missed the second half of last season with injuries to his core, groin, and pinky finger (all of which required surgery) and finished sixth on the team in targets. He’s also scored just twice in 22 career games.

On the plus side, Moore is still only 23 years old and the departure of DeAndre Hopkins certainly opens up a ton of vacated targets. There’s also no guarantee that Zach Ertz is ready by Week 1 and Greg Dortch has only been fantasy relevant with multiple starters out. It’s safe to assume Moore slots in as the WR2, for now.

The 2023 season looks to be a tough one for the Cardinals. Per BetMGM, they have the longest odds of winning their own division (+2500) while simultaneously sporting the lowest projected win total (5.5).

Tank for Caleb Williams? That’s a topic for another time.

Moore will need to stay healthy, step up, and earn targets from either a recovering Kyler Murray (ACL) or a backup QB. Thankfully, his price sits at WR60 so there’s still room to acquire an explosive piece of this offense at a discount.

Who were the other ADP movers in June?!

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Broncos, who have a new coach and desperately need their QB to bounce back…

🐎 WRs

• Jerry Jeudy (Ian’s WR21)
• Courtland Sutton (WR49)
• Tim Patrick (WR73)
• Marvin Mims (WR74)

Jeudy tied for 12th in yards per route run (2.18) and ranked 21st in PFF receiving grade (77.9) last season; he has the underlying efficiency numbers of a stud WR … if only the offense can improve.

Still, Jeudy continued to flash the sort of high-end route-running ability that has been on display ever since he entered the league. Maybe the lethal double-moves weren’t seen quite as often in 2022 compared to 2020, but this was still a player who made his presence felt on more than a few occasions throughout the season.

Jeudy’s end-of-season boom in particular shouldn’t be ignored:

• Week 14: 8 receptions / 73 yards / 3 TD, PPR WR1
• Week 15: 7 / 76 / 0, WR22
• Week 16: 6 / 117 / 0, WR14
• Week 17: 7 / 38 / 0, WR28
• Week 18: 5 / 154 / 0, WR3

Of course, head coach Sean Payton’s new offense doesn’t guarantee to feature Jeudy ahead of Sutton or even Patrick (seriously). It remains to be seen if Wilson will rebound from his career-worst 2022 campaign, or if the reigning 32nd-ranked scoring offense will once again function as one of the league’s least fantasy-friendly environments.

Ultimately, I’m in on Jeudy at his WR21 (pick 41.1) ADP. He’s going alongside fellow WRs with offensive environment questions like Christian Watson, Drake London and Terry McLaurin. Don’t be afraid to bet on the 24-year-old talent finally booming in a major way ahead of his first professional season in which he’ll get to play with the same starting QB as he did the year before.

Wrapping my mind around Sutton has been far more difficult despite his far lower ADP. His 72 / 1,112 / 6 receiving line back in 2019 was undoubtedly a good time, but back-to-back disappointing campaigns in the form of 58 / 776 / 2 and 64 / 829 / 2 receiving lines have left a lot to be desired.

This fact has not been lost on Sean Payton, although offseason trade rumors have gone nowhere to this point. The reigning WR42 in PPR points per game, Sutton’s vastly inferior per-route metrics to Jeudy in the same offensive environment has me fading the soon-to-be 28-year-old veteran. This sort of contested-catch-phenom archetype looks fantastic when things are going well, but the cliff can come quickly and harshly in fantasy land (see Dez Bryant, Kenny Golladay).

Some of the Broncos’ additional options at WR:

🐎 Marvin Mims

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s final sentence summary of Mims from his ever-excellent “The Beast” breakdown:

“Overall, Mims must prove himself vs. press-man coverage and expand his route-running inventory with improved stem balance/footwork, but his bread and butter will always be his field-stretching speed and finishing skills. He will add an explosive element to an NFL offense as a rotational rookie receiver and punt returner.”

Perhaps a day-one starting role is off the table, but don’t be surprised if Mims has a package of plays early that features him taking the top off the defense.

🐎 Tim Patrick

Already sitting courtside with Russ and Payton, Patrick is expected to slide back into his starting role after missing all of 2022 with a torn ACL. Already a full participant at OTAs, Patrick will look to get back to the groove that helped him emerge as arguably the team’s best WR in 2020 (51 / 742 / 6) and 2021 (53 / 734 / 5). He’s one of just 29 WRs with a total contract value of at least $30 million.

🐎 KJ Hamler

Could be on the outside looking in after the team’s decision to use day two capital on Mims. This is especially true after Hamler suffered a torn pec in March that is expected to sideline him for four to six months.

🐎 Marquez Callaway

Set career-high marks in receptions (46), receiving yards (698) and TDs (6) with Payton in 2021. Still, his minimally-guaranteed one-year deal is the stuff of a backup, not a starter.

It’s possible guys like Kendall Hinton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey could factor into the equation as well. I’ve been most willing to throw late-round darts at Patrick and Mims out of the group; the former sure seems cemented as a starter in three-WR sets, while the latter’s field-stretching ability could provide the sort of boom weeks worth heavily targeting in best ball land.

What about the QBs, RBs, and TEs?

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