š We Love These Divisional Road Dogs
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we dive into divisional road underdogs in Week 11, bets from the group chat, and a breakdown for Sunday Night Football.
Even ugly dogs find people who feed themā¦
In todayās Betting Life newsletter presented by LG Channels:
- Divisional Road Dogs: Ugly, but maybe cuddly?
- Player Props! CMC ATDā¦ againā¦
- A Group Chat Parlay: +560, burn your MONEY!
- Last-Minute Bets: We got you covered.
- Sunday Night Football: Thunder on the under.
- Itās 11/19: Take it away, Matthew Freedmanā¦
Today, we have five divisional matchups that feature road underdogs (as of Sat. 11/18, 2:00 pm ET).
- Steelers +1 to +2 at Browns
- Bears +7.5 to +8 at Lions
- Giants +8.5 to +9.5 at Commanders
- Titans +6.5 to +7 at Jaguars
- Jets +7 to +7.5 at Bills
I highlighted Lions-Bears and Commanders-Giants in the Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, so I wonāt cover them here, but I will provide thoughts on the other three gamesā¦ right after a quick analysis of divisional road underdogs.
š¶ Divisional Road UnderdogsĀ
Since 2003, road underdogs have been profitable ā especially in division (regular-season numbers only, per the Action Network database).
- Road Underdogs: 1,718-1,597-95 ATS (0.9% ROI)
- Divisional Road Underdogs: 644-557-35 ATS (4.3% ROI)
Why have divisional matchups been friendly to road dogs?
Two thoughts.
- Home-Field Advantage: In division, home-field value is diminished.
- Familiarity: The knowledge of divisional opponents results in tighter games.
So divisional road dogs should draw our attention ā but a note of caution: This trendās profitability has declined as the season progresses.
- Week 1: 40-27-2 ATS (16.1% ROI)
- Weeks 1-4: 139-102-8 ATS (12.3% ROI)
- Weeks 1-10: 312-235-17 ATS (10.9% ROI)
- Weeks 11-18: 264-266-11 ATS (-3.0% ROI)
In the second half of the season, the edge for divisional road dogs has eroded.
Why?
Early in the year, power ratings are compressed. Teams are healthy, organized, and motivated. But by the second half, many of the bad teams are āexperimenting,ā making QB switches, firing coaches, and descending into chaos.
To this point, Iāve sometimes talked about liking a team because itās a divisional road dog. But moving forward youāll likely hear that less.
āļø Steelers +1 to +2 at Browns
Before Browns QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder, IR) was ruled out, I opened a position on the Steelers at +4.5 and logged it in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
And I like the Steelers even more now: I have Watson as +4.2 points better than rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ā but the market hasnāt moved that much.
Plus, the situational spot favors the Steelers. HC Mike Tomlin as a divisional underdog is 23-8-2 ATS (40.3% ROI).
Compare that to Browns HC Kevin Stefanski (and fill-in HC Mike Priefer), who as a divisional favorite is 2-8 ATS (-61.0% ROI).
Against Stefanski (and Priefer, who had a great 48-37 playoff win against Tomlin in the 2020-21 postseason), Tomlin is 6-2 ATS (41.7% ROI).
I like the Steelers on the moneyline and in teasers.
āļø Titans +6.5 to +7 at Jaguars
I have a bet on Titans +7.
Titans HC Mike Vrabel is 25-14-1 ATS (22.6% ROI) as a dog of at least a field goal, whereas Jaguars HC Doug Pederson is 20-27 ATS (-16.3% ROI) as a favorite of three-plus points.
The Jaguars have struggled offensively this year, ranking No. 23 in EPA (-0.075, per RBs Donāt Matter).
For a team that doesnāt pile on points, -7 is a big number in division ā especially given that the Jaguars have one of the leagueās worst home-field advantages.
āļø Jets +7 to +7.5 at Bills
I highlighted this game in my Week 11 best bets piece.
Even with their recent underperformance, the Bills are No. 3 (+6.3) in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. The Jets are No. 26 (-3.41).
Iām fine betting Bills -7 or teasing at -7.5.
Get Freedmanās Best Bets! (Seriously, hurry)
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See our suite of tools to get you ready for todayās slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
š¤Ā Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-195, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -261.4
- Cutoff: -245
Sure, McCaffrey didnāt score a TD last week, but a lot of that was due to incredibly bad luck. The 49ers scored 34 points ā and yet McCaffrey didnāt find the endzone. How?
The 49ers didnāt run a play inside the 10-yard until there was only 5:17 left in the game. And even then the 49ers gave McCaffrey four opportunities (two carries, two targets).
Framed differently: McCaffrey had 100% of the teamās opportunities within the 10-yard line last week.
Thatās the kind of usage that results in TDs far more often than not.
In his 23 games with the 49ers, he has scored 26 TDs. In all but four of his 49ers games has he hit paydirt (82.6%).Ā He leads the league with 38 redzone carries and also has nine targets inside the 20-yard line.
At -195, McCaffrey has a 66.1% implied probability of scoring a TD this week, and I have his true odds of scoring projected at 72.3%.
š¦Ā David Montgomery Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- My Projection: 55.7
- Cutoff: 51.5
The Lions are home favorites of more than a TD, so they could have a run-heavy game script.
Despite sharing work with rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery leads the league with 83.5 rushing yards per game.
Montgomery exited Week 6 early after just 18 snaps (26%), but in his five other games he has had at least 12 carries and 67 yards rushing.
Plusā¦ this is a #RevengeGame for Montgomery against the Bears, who let him walk in free agency this offseason. Does that matter? Probably not. But it doesnāt hurt.
SEE THE REST OF FREEDMANāS PROPS!
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- Look who's back! Finally some good news!!
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- Ian's Bold Prediction!
Welcome to Week 11 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.
After another winner, we are rolling. Since we started five weeks ago we are now 3-2 on the group three-way parlays. Overall, the singular plays from the parlay section are 12-3.
This week weāre back and have another parlay AND ladder bets for Week 11.
š¦ Freedman Likes: Cardinals +6.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -120
The Cardinals have drifted to +6.0 (opened at +4.0) and look like solid targets at this number. Houston is 0-3 ATS as a favorite and their defense is No. 21 in EPA, making it potentially difficult for them to cover a large spread.
š¹Ā LaMarca Likes: Chiefs -2.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: -120
This one feels straightforward. The Chiefsā¦ off a bye. In LaMarcaās own words:
āWhen Patrick Mahomes is favored by less than three points, you take it. He's 15-4-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than three for his career (including playoffs)... Add in a bye week for Andy Reid and this is tough to pass up.ā
ā ļø Geoff Ulrich Likes: Michael Mayer over 18.5 yards (-117, BetMGM)Ā
- Play to: 19.5 (-110)
- Aggregate projection: 27.0 receiving yards
The Dolphins have been weaker at guarding against the middle of the field all season, allowing the 11th most receiving yards against this year.Ā
Mayer saw 88% of the snaps last week and got five targets. I donāt see any reason he canāt sail over this number for us in Week 11.Ā
š¤Ā Putting it all together: +560, BetMGM SGP
- Cardinals +6.0 (-110)
- Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
- Michael Mayer over 18.5 receiving yards (-117)
š Week 11 Ladder Play: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - Lions (BetMGM)Ā
- Over 23.5 rec yards (-133) - play to 24.5 (-115)
- Gibbs SGP: over 49.5 rec yards / anytime TD (+475) - play to +450
The Bears have allowed the most receiving yards against opposing RBs. Not only do they give up yards, but there have been multiple talented receiving RBs already who have torched Chicago's linebackers for big games (Ekeler 7-45-1, Jones 2-86-1, Gibson 4-64).Ā
Gibbs maintained a big role with Montgomery back last week (64% route rate, 5 targets, 34 yards receiving) and should be used a ton in this spot. I like playing the same game parlay angle and taking Gibbs in SGP for 50+ yards and a TD this week as a way to cash in on the upside if the big game occurs.
More Bets? Of Course You NEED THEM!
š Thursday Night Football Redux:Ā Two birds, one tweet.
š° Need more plays?Ā Weāre up +34.6 units in the last 30 days and have over 50 FREE bets waiting for you.
š Taking a look at the smart kidās homework.Ā Where sharps are betting for Week 11.
š College football:Ā $240M feels like a lot of money for an accounting error.
šĀ The two hottest teams in football?Ā Everything you need to bet on a surprisingly good SNF game.
šŗ Last minute bets, anyone?Ā Weāve got you covered before kickoff.
š¤Ā Who you should root for in any given game.Ā Maybe the best thing Germany has produced since the VW Beetle.
š„§Ā āYou donāt score, until you score.āĀ Touchdown bets for Week 11.
š Pro tips for being a more profitable sports bettor.Ā Simple but effective.
Before the main course on Monday Night Football, weāve got a sneaky-good contest between the Vikings and Broncos on Sunday night. Matt LaMarca offers up his best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Believe it or not, these are the two āhottestā teams in the league right now. The Vikings have the longest winning streak in football at five games, while the Broncos are second at three. The Broncos are listed as -2.5 home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5 points.
š Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-108; DraftKings)
Iām going right back to the under well on Sunday night. Even with an over on Thursday Night Football, primetime unders are still an insane 25-8 for the season and 150-92-3 since 2019-20.
Both of these squads have also been hitting unders at a high rate for most of the season. The Vikings are 7-3 to the under this season, while the Broncos are 5-4.
The Broncosā improved defense has helped of late, but so has their play style. Theyāve had a dropback over expected (DBOE) of -2.0% or lower in four straight games, including three games above -7.0%. Theyāve also averaged -0.22 plays per minute over expected (PPMOE) for the year, so theyāre playing slow in addition to being run-heavy.
With the Vikings reportedly unlikely to get Justin Jefferson back this week, another low-scoring affair seems in order.
ā¬ļøĀ Top Prop:Ā Russell Wilson Over 4.5 carries (-150; DraftKings)
Wilson has turned back the clocks in recent weeks. He may not be quite as nimble as he was in his youth, but heās used his legs far more often over the past few games. Heās had a designed run rate of at least nine percent in back-to-back games, and heās had a scramble rate of at least 10% in four of his past five.
Add it all up, and Wilson has 17 total carries in his past two contests.
The Broncos have won both of those games against good opponents, so I doubt theyāre going to change things up much vs. the Vikings. Minnesota has also been a good matchup for rushing volume this season, with opposing QBs averaging more than seven carries per game.
šĀ Same-Game Parlay (+2158; FanDuel)
- Broncos ML
- Under 42.5
- T.J. Hockenson Anytime TD
- T.J. Hockenson 60+ receiving yards
Iām starting my SGP with the under, and Iām also going to back the Broncos on the moneyline. I think that combination makes sense. If the Broncos are going to win this game, theyāre going to need to continue to play strong defense. During their three-game winning streak, the Broncos and their opponents have combined for 38.3 points. When they lost five of six games to start the year, the average scoring was 54.8 points per game.
After that, Iām going to roll with a Hockenson anytime touchdown and at least 60 receiving yards. Heās had 27 total targets in two games with Josh Dobbs at QB, and with Jefferson likely out, he should remain the focal point of the passing attack. The Broncos have also been an elite matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position.
