Spend your Memorial Day arguing about ADPs…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Break The Hold:

“How is ‘X’ player going in Round 2 of fantasy drafts right now?!”

I’ve heard some version of this comment way too many times over the past few weeks—and with increased frequency as more and more people dip their toes into the 2024 drafting landscape.

The reason this sentiment is so commonplace is because there is a clear Top 12 in drafts this year. And after that? Well, it’s a free-for-all:

It’s incredibly easy to poke holes in any of these players going in Round 2.

You’re really going to draft a rookie who might not even exist at 2.01?

Drake London finished as the WR37 in PPR leagues and you are taking him as the WR10 in 2024?

Jonathan Taylor had a career-low 4.4 YPC in 2023 and didn’t look any better than Zack Moss. What are we doing here?

I could keep going down the line with bearish sentiment on every single player with a Round 2 ADP right now, but I know some of you have BBQs to attend.

The takeaway is that you shouldn’t be beholden to ADP in Round 2. It’s an extremely flat tier of players from 2.01 all the way through the middle of Round 3. I can easily make cases for guys like Jaylen Waddle and Malik Nabers to go just as high as the early Round 2 guys.

Anyone who is aghast about a player going too high or too low in Round 2 is mostly telling on themselves for not understanding tiers, probabilities, and ranges of outcomes.

If you’re only doing a handful of drafts, go get your guys. If you’re drafting hundreds of teams like some of us best bell sickos, diversifying within a tier is a prudent strategy.

Either way, please spare me the extremely tired analysis of being shocked that "random Round 2 player you have a bias against” is going in Round 2.

Twelve players have to go in Round 2 whether you like it or not. And your flavor tastes no better than anyone else’s.

Happy Memorial Day.

🇺🇸 There is Still Time to Help!

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📚 ICYMI: the complete guide to best ball stacking in 2024.

🚀 The RB in a new offense Matthew is most hyped on. Here’s why.

🏆️ Which QBs continually give us Top 5 finishes? ARich could break fantasy this year.

🎤 Trevon Diggs mic’d up at an NHL playoffs game. Good stuff.

🌟 Who is the Cowboys WR3? Sleeper selection here.

🚑️ Christian Watson is getting to the root of his hamstring issues. Please work.

The Dolphins have three legit RBs now, so how should we play it? Ian Hartitz breaks down the relevant skill players at each position for the Dolphins along with his prediction for their 2024 season.

🐬 Running Back

• RB1: De'Von Achane (RB9)
• RB2: Raheem Mostert (RB26)
• RB3: Jaylen Wright (RB51)
• RB4: Jeff Wilson
• RB5: Salvon Ahmed

Achane's rookie-year efficiency essentially broke RB performance charts.

The man averaged 7.8 yards per carry last season. Seven point eight.

Do you realize how ridiculous of a number that is? Here are the most efficient RB seasons in the Super Bowl era with at least 100 rush attempts:

• 2023 De'Von Achane (7.8 yards per carry)
• 1973 Mercury Morris (6.4)
• 2010 Jamaal Charles (6.4)
• 2021 Rashaad Penny (6.3)
• 1968 Gale Sayers (6.2)
• 1997 Barry Sanders (6.1)
• 2017 Alvin Kamara (6.1)

The absurd efficiency naturally led to more than a few blowup performances, as Achane wound up posting top-12 PPR numbers in five of his nine full games last season — that 56% mark was only topped by Christian McCaffrey (81%, lol), Kyren Williams (75%) and Derrick Henry (59%).

Of course, Achane didn't exactly dominate usage in this backfield despite the big-time production. Here were the Dolphins' RB splits in an eight-game sample that featured both Achane and Mostert healthy:

• De’Von Achane: 239 snaps, 83-640-7 rushing, 34 targets, 23-175-2 receiving
• Raheem Mostert: 236 snaps, 96-416-9 rushing, 20 targets, 18-123-2 receiving

Could rookie RB Jaylen Wright also work his way into the equation? Maybe, although the history of day three talents doing much of anything in fantasy land is pretty rare. It does matter that the Dolphins traded a 2025 third-rounder in order to move up and select Wright, but expecting the rookie to simply displace either Achane or Mostert seems a bit much considering the duo, you know, spearheaded the NFL's single-most efficient rushing offense… literally last season.

Overall, 2023 Mostert and Achane join 2017 Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as the only backfield duos to BOTH turn in top-12 PPR numbers on a per-game basis in the same season over the last decade of action. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Ultimately, the Round 2, RB8 price tag on Achane is admittedly steep, but he offers far too much blowup upside to completely fade. As much as we can wonder about his ability to stay healthy and hold off Mostert and Wright… what happens if the second-year talent ascends to a bigger role while his 32-year-old veteran and fourth-round rookie competition fail to get things going?

As for Mostert, we're in scary territory when it comes to the age cliff, although he is relatively young in football years considering he still has just 766 career regular season touches on the odometer. This risk seems more than baked into his RB27, pick 92.8 ADP: Mostert (again) profiles as a rock-solid zero-RB piece with weekly multi-TD upside — be careful about fading any (currently healthy) player under the assumption that, “They're just going to get injured.”

✍️ Bottom line

The NFL's reigning No. 1 offense in expected RB PPR points per game has more than enough opportunity for both Achane and Mostert to (again) provide weekly boom upside. Both are in play at cost — I'm less enthused with taking Wright (RB44, pick 145.1) ahead of cheaper Day 2 backs with a better chance at obtaining standalone value like MarShawn Lloyd and Kendre Miller.