My New Years Resolution is for my players to score TDs...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• Who is motivated to win in Week 17?
• Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
• The favorite to lead the league in rushing this week
• Eliot's favorite stack: Seahawks/Jets
• SNF: Our SNF Picks & Plays
• Player Matchups: Jahan Dotson & Cole Kmet
• Happy New Year from all of us at Fantasy Life!
• It’s 1/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Normally we don't have to worry much about team motivations until the last week of the season, but Week 17 this year presents a few tricky situations that you'll need to consider as you fend off a NYE hangover while trying to win a fantasy championship...

🤔 What will the Jags do?

Technically the Jaguars have nothing to play for. Their playoff hopes come down to their Week 18 tilt with the Tennessee Titans. That said, Coach Doug Pederson is on the record emphatically saying he'd "never, ever, ever, ever" consider resting starters and that there is no such thing as a "meaningless game."

Still, Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury, and this is literally a meaningless game against the Texans.

In season long leagues, you're of course starting Lawrence (QB6), Travis Etienne (RB6), Christian Kirk (WR16), Zay Jones (WR26), and Evan Engram (TE4) against a bad Houston team, but I'll be steering clear of them in DFS where I don't think the downside risk is baked into their popularity.

🙏 Must win teams

These are the teams with plenty of motivation: Lions, Saints, Giants, Panthers, Buccaneers, Jets, Seahawks, Packers, and Commanders

🥊 Teams fighting for a bye

The Eagles have the inside track, but both the Vikings and Niners have an outside chance if Philly loses both of their last two games.

Still, I do worry about Christian McCaffrey's ceiling in this spot, considering the Niners will absolutely not risk injury in a game where they are smashing Jarrett Stidham. Like the Jags, you are obviously starting McCaffrey in season-long, but I think there's reason to pump the brakes in DFS at his cost/popularity.

In the AFC, the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals are all still live for the No. 1 seed.

🚽 Toilet bowl

The Cardinals vs. the Falcons is the only game where both teams have nothing to play for. David Blough vs. Desmond Ridder, baby.

What a time to be alive.

Read on for more of the biggest fantasy news stories from last night and our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• RANKINGS - Full Week 17 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

🏆One winner and a lottt of losers this weekend—which one are you?

Hey hey, we’re all winners here...

Even if you lost in your Fantasy League you still can bet $10 and win $200

…because if an NFL Team scores a TD this New Year’s day (and if you live in Ohio, Maryland, Kansas, Illinois, or Louisiana) you’re making 200 bucks:

It's as simple as three easy steps.

1. Sign up at BetMGM: Register an account and make your first deposit
2. Download: Get the BetMGM Sportsbook App on IOS or Android
3. Bet on Any NFL Team

And if you don’t live in one of those states, you’re still not a loser (well not in our eyes anyways)

FreeBets are credits which allow participants to place another bet with BetMGM Sports; such credits cannot be withdrawn or cashed-out by participants, are forfeited when used to place a bet, and are subject to loss if the bet(s) placed with such credits do not win. FreeBets must be used within 7 days of them being credited to your account. FreeBets do not count towards qualifying for any other promotional offers, unless otherwise specifically stated in the terms & conditions of such promotional offer.

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

📁 Christian Watson a true GTD

Unfortunately, we did not get answers on this question mark over night. Watson, who is dealing with a hip injury and only got in one limited practice last week, is going to test his injury out pregame to see if he can play:

Packers’ WR Christian Watson, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a hip injury, will test his injury pre-game to see if he can play vs. the Vikings, per source. Watson didn’t take any live repetitions last week during practice, but Green Bay still is hoping he can play.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Jan 1, 2023

Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs would both get a target boost if Watson can't go, but it would be a big downgrade for Aaron Rodgers and the entire offense.

📁 An update on Austin Ekeler...from Austin Ekeler

It was real scary last week when Ekeler hurt his knee on the final play of the game. Considering the Chargers had already locked up a playoff spot, there was real concern with his workload for Week 17, but Ekeler put that all to rest in this IG video.

His direct quote: "I've been scoring points for you all season...and this week is going to be no different." Fire him up with confidence as a Top 3 RB:

📁 DeAndre Hopkins is out

Yesterday, Dwain highlighted Hopkins as a faller, and later in the day we got word that he was officially ruled out. Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch, and Trey McBride should all be in line for a decent amount of targets, but it's hard to get excited about anyone with David Blough tossing the ball. 

For you DFS players, Dortch is the stone min ($3,000) on DraftKings, which is certainly interesting.

📁 Can you trust Tyler Lockett?

He'll be suiting up, though it's fair to wonder how effective he'll be just thirteen days after surgery to repair a broken bone in his left hand. I'd really prefer not to rely on him in my championship matchups.

📁 Misc. files

Tyler Higbee (elbow) is good to go. He's our TE8 on the week...Hayden Hurst (calf) is fine for Monday night, as well.

💰 The favorite to lead the league in rushing yards this weekend. It might surprise you.

🏆 Who is the top dog in the AFC? This RB is pointing to last year's scoreboard.

👴 Remember Trey Lance? Here's an update on his rehab.

🔎 Who will be the Broncos next head coach? The team is on the prowl.

😆 He'll never live this down. Shout out Grandma!

💰 This RB is TOO cheap in DFS. It is time to Cook. 

👄 Hot gossip on Instagram. You won't believe which QB unfollowed his team.

👿 Who is to blame for the meltdown in Las Vegas? Warren Sharp shares his take.

❓ Will Jalen Hurts play in Week 18? An update.

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Mike White > Garrett Wilson & Bam Knight (Bring Back: Noah Fant)

The Jets' offense has been night and day with Mike White under center this year.

They average 44 pass attempts and 317 yards with White at the helm, scoring 3.4 more points per game. While White puts the Jets on the right trajectory, the Seahawks have been coming back down to earth, losing five of their last six and allowing 26.5 points per game during that stretch. With PFF’s 8th-lowest coverage grade and their 31st DVP ranking vs running backs, this is a sneaky smash spot for a big Jets offensive day.

White comes in with a price tag of just $5,400, putting him as QB17 on the slate despite averaging 20.3 DKPPG (4th among active QBs on the slate). He has the sixth-highest boom rate per Run the Sims, and at just 5% projected rostership, is going completely under the radar.

Zonovan “Bam” Knight has been quiet the last two weeks with Zach Wilson under center. Prior to that, Bam was averaging 15.3 points per game, way up from his 2.3 with Wilson. In addition, Bam is now fully healthy after spending the last two weeks on the injury report. This is a fantastic matchup as the Seahawks are allowing 24.5 fantasy points per game to RBs.

During their 1-5 stretch, RBs have gone nuclear vs the Seahawks. Backs are averaging 154.3 rushing yards, 43.5 receiving yards, and 1.66 TDs per game. With sub 10% projected rostership, Bam has a chance to be a tournament-winning play this Sunday.

Knight isn't the only one excited to have White back as Garrett Wilson should return to his top-10 form. One of my favorite bets this weekend is Wilson's over 64.5 receiving yards, and will be laddering him as well. With White, Wilson is averaging 21.5 DK points on 111 receiving yards per game. 

Wilson is priced as WR27 but is our WR9. He is the best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate.

While this stack is one of the most affordable you can do on the weekend, we can still add to the value with Noah Fant. The Jets are allowing 58 yards per game to tight ends and are coming off a game where they allowed 130 yards to Evan Engram. 

DK Metcalf will likely be in shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner, who has only allowed 27 receptions this season, Marquise Goodwin is unlikely to play, and Tyler Lockett is still nursing a finger injury. The Seahawks best chance to move the ball is to the athletic tight end Fant.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Steelers @ Ravens, take it away, LaMarca...

📺 Steelers at Ravens (-2) – 35.5 total

There’s nothing better than a late-season NFL rivalry game.

The Steelers and Ravens have been one of the best rivalries in football for the past two decades, with both teams experiencing plenty of success. These two teams played to a dead heat in the 2000s and 2010s, with each side winning 22 games, but the Steelers have won four of five contests to start the 2020s.

That’s good news for Pittsburgh, who needs to win their final two games to have any shot of making the playoffs. They’re currently sitting at 7-8, and even if they do get to 9-8, they still have just an 11% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. However, even if the team doesn’t make the playoffs, they would love to avoid their first losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers have been a completely different team this season, with T.J. Watt in the lineup. They beat the Bengals in Week 1 in Cincinnati – a win that gets more impressive by the week – but they lost Watt to an injury in that contest. Then they proceeded to lose six of seven games with Watt sidelined, but they’ve rattled off five wins in seven games since he’s returned.

Their defense has been imposing in the past two weeks, limiting the Panthers and Raiders to just 410 total combined yards those contests. The Steelers’ offense racked up 675 yards in those games, so even though they needed a late touchdown to beat the Raiders last week, they have thoroughly outplayed their past two opponents.

The Ravens have already clinched a postseason berth at 10-5, but they would need some help to win the division. The Bengals would have to lose at home to the Bills in Week 17, and then the Ravens would have to beat the Bengals in Cincinnati to close out the year.

That’s a fascinating dynamic, given the health of star quarterback Lamar Jackson. After tonight, he'll have missed the past four games with a knee injury. However, it seems logical that the team would be more inclined to play Jackson if they still have something to play for.

That’s a big deal. The team has struggled mightily on offense with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, scoring 17 points or fewer in four straight games. With Pittsburgh being strong defensively, they could very well struggle with him under center once again.

The Steelers would get a huge boost if Jackson is out again, but I like their chances regardless of who is under center. Mike Tomlin is the GOAT when it comes to covering the spread as an underdog. The Steelers are 50-27-3  in that scenario since Tomlin took over, making them easily the most profitable team in football over that stretch. They’ve been even better as divisional underdogs, posting a record of 20-8-2 against the spread.

The sharps have been all over the Steelers to start the week, which has caused this number to drop from +4.5 to +3.5 in short order. Still, I like the Steelers at anything better than a field goal.

💰 If you missed it, check out our Game Hub!

We have preveiws like this for every game, along with matchup stats, betting picks and more!

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🔥 Cole Kmet @ DET

This is the second week in a row where I’ll talk about the fantasy gods, and while they weren’t exactly in the holiday spirit when JuJu Smith-Schuster put up just 5.7 PPR fantasy points against the Seahawks last week, it’s a new year. As the great band “Semisonic” once sang, “Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” 

It’s time to start 2023 on a good note, and one I’m entirely “Kmet”-ted to.

Bad joke aside, Cole Kmet is a favorite here in the newsletter (when he’s not being flossed, of course).

While he’s had a lousy runout the last couple of weeks with two top-six matchups against the Eagles and Bills, he gets the (relatively) friendly confines of an indoor game away from the elements against a Lions team that is giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to TE. They have also given up the most touchdowns to the position this season, including two to Kmet in Week 10, where he was fantasy’s TE1 in PPR.

If I’m in my league championship and have Kmet, I feel VERY good.

It’s “Closing Time,” and I know who I want to take me home.

🔥 Jahan Dotson vs. CLE

Much has been said about the love (and fantasy) connection between Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin (aka Terry McScorin, as I’m obligated to note per my contract). However, all good things must end, as we’re back to our original signal-caller for the Commanders, Carson Wentz.

While McLaurin is undoubtedly a fine receiver in his own right, he takes a pretty sizable hit in production with Wentz back in the saddle vs. Heinicke:

(credit: RotoViz)

Do you know who HAS shined with Wentz at QB in 2022?

Jahan Dotson, fantasy football’s WR11 in points per game since Week 13.

Dotson also has a 20% target share with eight targets per game in that same stretch, and with the Browns struggling against the WR2 this season (sixth-worst DVOA in 2022), it’s a matchup worth targeting.

If you just take his average production over the last month, you’ll definitely take his five receptions, 78 yards, and a touchdown in your lineups in fantasy football’s most pivotal week of the season.

Now, all we need is a catchy nickname for Dotson as he continues his scoring...

Thoughts & prayers

— jeFF (@TheFantasyEng)
Dec 30, 2022