Free Agency's Impact On The NFL Draft

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bud Light:

As an NFL-draft obsessed degenerate, I love free agency, because it provides us with clarity.

After the Super Bowl, every team has needs all over the roster.

That makes mock drafts difficult, because you can look at almost every team and say, "Well, in Round 1 it would make sense for them to draft OT, WR, EDGE, or CB."

But after free agency, it's easier to decipher each team's most pressing needs and to predict how the NFL draft might unfold.

So given that every Saturday edition of the Fantasy Life Newsletter is now dedicated to the NFL draft, here are five inferences I'm drawing based on recent moves in the market.

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What Do The QB Moves Mean?

1️⃣ The Raiders Trade for Geno Smith & Jets Sign Justin Fields

Just a few weeks ago, the Raiders and Jets were both teams that needed QBs, as they had respectively decided to move on from veterans Gardner Minshew and Aaron Rodgers.

With top-10 picks, the Raiders (No. 6) and Jets (No. 7) were both candidates to take a QB early in the draft, probably Shedeur Sanders (Colorado).

And yet they both decided to go with veteran options.

Potential Implications: Neither team expected Sanders to be available at Nos. 6-7 … or they simply don't believe he's worthy of being drafted with those picks.

2️⃣ The Giants Are Yet to Sign a QB

The Giants tried and failed a couple of weeks ago to get Rams QB Matthew Stafford despite offering him a deal worth $50M per year.

Stafford is a Super Bowl winner and a great player … but that kind of offer for a 37-year-old pocket passer smacks of desperation.

And after going 6-11 in 2023 and 3-14 in 2024, GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll should be desperate.

Even so … the Giants are yet to sign a QB in free agency.

The aforementioned Rodgers is available, as is Russell Wilson, but the fact that the Giants—as desperate as they are—still haven't addressed the position is telling.

Potential Implications: The Giants, who currently own the No. 3 pick and might be willing to trade up to No. 1, are confident they will get a QB they like early in Round 1.

WHO DO THE GIANTS TAKE IN THE LATEST MOCK?

Impacts at the Skill Positions

3️⃣ The Cowboys Sign Javonte Williams

Last year, Cowboys Owner/GM Jerry Jones told the world that he wanted to select an RB in the draft by saying that he was "high, high, high" on Jonathon Brooks.

This year, Jones once again signaled to the league that he wants to take an RB.

Potential Implications: If you need a starting RB and you sign a guy like Williams to a one-year, $3M deal … you're probably planning to address the position with a top-100 pick, maybe as early as Round 1.

In my post-free agency mock draft, I have the Cowboys selecting RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina) at No. 12.

Thor Nystrom's Prospect Profile: Omarion Hampton

4️⃣ The Panthers Are Yet to Sign a WR

Imagine you're an NFL team.

You trade away your best WR, picks No. 9 & 61 in the current draft, the No. 1 overall pick for the following year, and a second-rounder for the year after that so you can take the No. 1 QB at the top of the draft.

He ends up not actually being the best QB in the class—but he does well enough at the end of his second season to justify giving him one more year so you can really evaluate him.

And now imagine that your starting wide receivers are a soon-to-be 35-year-old slot man, a bottom-of-the-first-round second-year underachiever, and an undrafted second-year flier.

Imagine that … and then imagine not doing anything in the first days of free agency to address the position.

Potential Implications: The Panthers are underappreciated candidates to draft a WR—and specifically Tetairoa McMillan—at No. 8. There's just no way they can hope to support Bryce Young with Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, and Jalen Coker as their top WRs, right?

MORE ON MCMILLAN

A Different Type of Rebuild?

5️⃣ The 49ers Are Bleeding Veterans

Whether it's via trade, release, or free agency, the 49ers—since March started—have lost the following players:

WR Deebo Samuel
FB Kyle Juszczyk
LG Aaron Banks
OT Jaylon Moore
RB Elijah Mitchell
QB Joshua Dobbs
DT Javon Hargrave
DT Maliek Collins
CB Charvarius Ward
LB Dre Greenlaw
SS Talanoa Hufanga

That ain't nothing.

Potential Implications: Given that the 49ers need help all over the roster, I expect them to take a best-player-available approach at No. 11—and they might even be more willing than usual to trade down in order to accumulate more draft picks.

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