10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions for 2023

It doesn’t overly pay to be especially bold in fantasy football land, at least when it comes to rankings.

Even if you truly believe Anthony Richardson will finish as a top-three fantasy QB, why rank him as such when something closer to his QB11 average draft position (ADP) would allow you to get him at a far reduced cost?

That said: Making bold calls is objectively a fun time, and being correct on them still helps directionally point fantasy teams in the right direction.

What follows are 10 bold calls for the 2023 season – with an emphasis on bold.

Would I bet my life on any of these? Hell no.

But I do have a level of conviction with each that has made a serious impact on my draft strategy throughout the offseason.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Washington Commanders enable two top-24 RBs in PPR PPG

This feat has happened 1.9 times per season over the past 10 years, with the Lions and Cowboys each qualifying in 2022. Currently, the former team is the only squad with two RBs priced inside the position’s top-24 options in terms of ADP.

So why do I believe both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson can qualify? Well, the backfield finally fully condensed down to just two parties certainly helps.

While the presence of current free agent J.D. McKissic might not have seemed that extreme, only Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey averaged more targets per game than Washington’s long-time scat back from 2020 to 2022.

This Commanders’ offense hasn’t been anyone’s idea of good over the past three seasons, ranking 27th in total points per game. And yet, their backfield has averaged the league’s second-most expected PPR points per game during this stretch – high-end fantasy RBs have been the least impacted from bottom-10 scoring offenses relative to other positions over the years.

I haven’t made a habit of drafting both RBs to the same team this offseason, but I also haven’t shied away from doing so if there’s a clear tier break between either player and the next-best back. Overall, Gibson and Robinson are my single-favorite picks in Round 9 and 10 of drafts, respectively. I prefer the former only because sixth-round Chris Rodriguez is a bigger threat to the latter, but even then, it’s hard to be too down on one of fantasy’s cheapest potential bell-cow backs.

Anthony Richardson sets the NFL record for rush attempts by a QB in a single season

There have been just four instances of a QB racking up 150-plus carries in a single season:

2019 Lamar Jackson (176)
2022 Jalen Hurts (165)
2022 Justin Fields (160)
2020 Jackson (159)

Note that Colts Head Coach Shane Steichen helped enable the second qualifier on the above list. While the 2022 Eagles actually ranked 10th in pass rate over expected (blow-out-induced game-script caused them to run so much), the 2021 squad ranked 30th and really became a run-first squad (46.8% pass-play rate!) after their season got off to a disappointing 2-5 start.

Enter Richardson. He scored a perfect 10 RAS (relative athletic score) after showing up to the combine at 6’4, 244 lbs. The Florida product posted a more than stellar 103-654-9 rushing line in 12 games at Florida last season, proving capable of being able to take the rock to the house by himself from pretty much anywhere on the field.

Week 1 of the preseason was a good snapshot of what we should expect to see from this group. Overall, the Colts’ utilized an RPO on 42.6% of their snaps – the highest mark in the NFL by a whopping 16.7%.

High-volume rushing QBs really don’t bust in fantasy football land:

Richardson profiles as this year’s late-round darling at the position who performs far better in fantasy than real life – don’t be surprised if we see some GAUDY rushing numbers to make up for likely growing pains as a passer.

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Chargers TE Gerald Everett catches 8+ TDs

Remember that time last season when Justin Herbert broke his ribs and lost stud LT Rashawn Slater and No. 1 WR Keenan Allen at the same time?

Maybe, just maybe, THAT had something to do with his lowly 3.6% TD rate, which was previously at far higher marks in both 2020 (5.2%) and 2021 (5.7%)?

One could argue that the fact Everett didn’t do more during a season with a banged-up WR room is a bad sign moving forward, but the veteran deserves some level of credit for posting career-best marks in targets (87), receptions (58) and receiving yards (555) alike in 2022. Note that this doesn’t even include his sterling 6-109-1 performance in the Chargers’ ill-fated Wild Card loss to the Jaguars.

Chargers tight end Gerald Everett (7) eludes Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Chad Muma (48) as he heads into the end zone for a touchdown during second quarter action. The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Los Angeles Chargers in their first round playoff game Saturday, January 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars trailed 27 to 7 at the half. [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union] Jki 011423 Bs Jaguars Vs Chargers Playoff 47

And if you do include the playoffs for every TE? Everett finished last season as the TE10 in PPR points per game. Not too shabby!

This was WITH Everett regularly being forced into playing a suboptimal part-time role in an offense that made sure to keep the likes of Donald Parham, Stephen Anderson and/or Tre’ McKitty (meow) also involved under ex-OC Joe Lombardi.

Consider the difference in games with a snap rate north of 80% between Everett and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s former No. 1 TE Dalton Schultz:

Everett: 0
Schultz: 11

It’s not a complete given that Everett is given this same every-down role. But he’s certainly the prime candidate to do so and accordingly profiles as easily the cheapest full-time piece of an offense fully expected to be among the league’s most prolific passing attacks.

Bills WR Gabe Davis finishes as a top-24 WR in half-PPR scoring

The presence of guys like John Brown, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders prevented Davis from working as a full-time receiver during his first two years in the league. This changed last year, and the former fourth-round pick accordingly set career-high marks in basically everything.

Of course, a season-long 48-836-7 receiving line wasn’t exactly what truthers had in mind considering the man ended his 2021 campaign with an incredible 8-201-4 performance in the Bills’ batshit crazy AFC Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs. His status as the WR38 in PPR points per game didn’t exactly pay off his pricey WR24 preseason ADP.

One important note: Davis suffered a high-ankle sprain in a Week 2 practice that he ultimately played through during the rest of the season. He still managed to post the occasional boom, but the injury helps explain why the team felt the need to re-sign Smokey and Beasley later in the season.

Somehow still only 24 years of age, Davis (again) profiles as Josh Allen’s rather undisputed No. 2 WR. The Bills’ pass-happy offense has produced the single-most expected WR PPR points per game over the past three seasons; improved health in 2023 *should* yield returns closer to what drafters were hoping for last season.

Or maybe it won’t; either way, Davis is currently being priced below where he finished last season.

The definition of buying a fantasy asset closer to their floor than ceiling, Davis is a prime post-hype candidate who has proven capable of booming in a major way when everything is right.

Patriots WR DeVante Parker parties like it’s 2019 and posts five top-12 fantasy finishes

The crowded nature of this passing game has depressed the ADP of everyone involved. Luckily, recent training camp intel has provided some clarity:

Reminder: The Patriots gave Parker a new three-year contract worth up to $33 million in late June. There is only $14 million guaranteed, but at a minimum, that’s enough money to more or less cement his spot in starting three-WR sets.

Parker flashed some patented grown-man catches throughout 2022 while posting 5-156-0 and 6-79-2 blowup performances. It’s not a complete given he works ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster in Mac Jones’ pecking order, but his terribly low ADP makes this a reasonable bet.

The 30-year-old veteran has been dubbed a fantasy football sleeper for what seems like 50 straight offseasons; just realize Parker carries one of the better target projections for any WR priced outside of fantasy’s top-150 picks.

And if offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien proves that last year’s troubles were simply a result of the Matt Patricia experience? Expect Parker to be a major beneficiary of the turnaround.

The Lions and Vikings fall outside of the NFL’s top-16 scoring offenses

Last season just three top-10 scoring offenses also fielded a bottom-10 scoring defense:

Lions: Offense: 5th. Defense: 29th
Vikings: 7th, 30th
Seahawks: 9th, 25th

Since 2000, 49% of top-10 NFL scoring offenses repeated that feat the next season. So an average of 4.9 repeaters per season, with a median of 5.

Last season's top-10 scoring offenses: Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Bills, Lions, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks and Jaguars.

Which five teams would you pick to regress out of that group? I’m picking at least Detroit and Minnesota while throwing in the edgy caveat that they could perhaps even fall out of the league’s top-16 scoring groups.

I mean, it’s not like offenses led by these QBs have been absolute juggernauts for the last half-decade:

Vikings scoring offense rank from 2018-2022: 19th, 8th, 11th, 14th and 8th
Rams and Lions scoring ranks 2018-2022: 2nd, 11th, 22nd, 25th, 5th

The Lions added some serious talent to their defense in free agency and in the draft, while the Vikings hired former Dolphins HC Brian Flores to fix that side of the ball.

Yes, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown are awesome at football. Also yes, neither offense has another truly proven No. 2 WR on the roster (with all due respect to old man Marvin Jones).

Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown catches passes during training camp on Wednesday, Aug. 02, 2023, in Allen Park.

Maybe rookies like Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta are day-one ballers and help elevate the entire offense. The Vikings also did invest heavily in first-round WR Jordan Addison and ex-Lions TE T.J. Hockenson, although the latter player hasn’t practiced in quite a bit while dealing with equilibrium issues stemming from an ear infection.

Credit to both squads for boasting above-average offensive lines in PFF’s 2023 rankings – the Lions even come in at No. 5 – but failure for the offense’s skill-position talent to mesh in a hurry could quickly prove problematic even if their respective immobile QBs continue to have plenty of time to throw.

Bold? Absolutely. That’s the point.

Get ready for this next one.

Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy leads all AFC West WRs in total PPR points

Jeudy quietly ended 2022 on quite the tear.

Week 13: 4 receptions-65 yards-0 TD, PPR WR39
Week 14: 8-73-3, WR1
Week 15: 7-76-0, WR22
Week 16: 6-117-0, WR14
Week 17: 7-38-0, WR28
Week 18: 5-154-0, WR3

Overall, only A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, DeVonta Smith and CeeDee Lamb scored more total PPR points than Jeudy during these final six weeks after he returned from injury.

Fast forward to 2023, and the 24-year-old talent is finally getting to play with the same QB for his second consecutive season as a professional, with longtime passing game wizard Sean Payton now pulling the strings.

Of course, this bold call implies that Jeudy will ascend so high that some of the division’s long-time alphas won’t keep up. While I’m not actively fading the likes of Davante Adams, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the early rounds of fantasy drafts, the former two WRs will both be 31 by the end of the season, and the latter could feasibly lose at least a little target share to first-round WR Quentin Johnston.

Jeudy is my favorite fourth-round pick of 2023, thanks to his potential to put together a fully healthy season and finally demonstrate the sort of fantasy upside that *should* be attached to someone with his absurd route-running prowess.

Bills RB James Cook leads all AFC East RBs in total PPR points

On the one hand, Cook was really good as a rookie, averaging more yards per carry (5.7) than any RB not named Breece Hall (5.8) and posting the position’s eighth-best PFF receiving grade (71.8) among 55 qualified RBs. He might have fumbled away his first career carry, but credit to the rookie for not letting the football hit the ground on his next 126 touches.

On the other hand, the Bills never quite trusted him as an early-down answer, as virtually all of his games with double-digit rush attempts came during a Bills blowout. The presence of Damien Harris and Latavius Murray has caused many to assume that Cook will be an afterthought on the ground this season.

But could that be a bit overblown, considering neither veteran fetched a contract worth even $2 million this season?

There’s also the reality that Harris has played in just 38 of a possible 66 regular season games since entering the league in 2019, and Murray turns 34 in January.

While the dual-threat tendencies of Josh Allen haven’t led to bunches of expected PPR points for Bills RBs, the offense has been more willing to leave a single RB out on the field longer than most.

Word out of training camp certainly seems to paint the picture that the latter scenario is at least plausible for 2023.

“Cook went coast-to-coast as their unquestioned top running back at camp, displaying excellent pass-catching skills and a good knack for finding running lanes between the tackles…Cook also separated himself from backups Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, with Murray giving Harris a run for the primary backup duties due to his performance…With a cleared runway, Cook appears to be locked into a significant role barring injury.”

Bills running back James Cook works on ball security during a training camp drill.

Cook’s ADP isn’t exactly dirt cheap at the moment, but there’s potential here for him to provide:

Spot starts boomed by explosive pass-catching ability, and (wait for it)
League-winning upside should Harris (again) struggle to stay healthy, resulting in the Georgia talent being the next man up to receive a featured role.

There are several intriguing backs priced in the RB3 range at the moment; don’t be afraid to throw some darts at the one (likely) in the best offense with the most demonstrated pass-down chops.

The Seahawks lead the NFL in points per game; literally everyone balls out

Geno Smith took home comeback player of the year honors during his breakout 2022 campaign. The veteran hadn’t thrown 100 passes in a season since 2014 before last year, but that didn’t stop Smith from making all kinds of incredible throws throughout the year.

Seriously: This mixtape is HOT.

Nothing about Smith’s performance would make you think he simply dinked and dunked his way to success. While he did lead the NFL in raw completion rate (69.8%), Smith’s 8.3 average target depth ranked a respectable 25th out of 48 qualified QBs. Nobody posted a higher PFF passing grade (99.2) or threw more TDs (15) on passes thrown 20-plus yards down the field last season.

The NFL’s best QB in completion rate over expected (+5.6%): It’s tough to find any metric that paints Smith as anything other than a top-10 QB in 2022.

Could it be a one-year wonder situation? Sure, but think about this:

What if it’s not?

The Seahawks might very well boast the NFL’s single-best WR trio (okay fine, No. 2 behind Cincy) with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Plus, they have two rather dope RBs in Kenneth Walker and (possibly) Zach Charbonnet. They even have Noah Fant, as well as Will Dissly, who have achieved some level of receiving success during their respective careers.

PFF’s 30th-ranked offensive line entering 2023 figures to be the primary culprit if things go south; just realize this sort of firepower could prove to be awfully lethal *if* Smith’s 2022 turns out to be more of a sign of things to come than a blip on the radar.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads all Chiefs WRs in half-PPR points

“What the f*ck?”

“He had us in the first half, not gonna lie.”

“Seriously, F*CK this fantasy writer.”

CHILL and hear me out:

MVS remains the favorite to play more snaps than any other Chiefs WR.
Kansas City gave him a three-year, $30 million contract with $15 million guaranteed last offseason.
Who else exactly deserves the benefit of the doubt here?

Notice I didn't say anything about MVS posting top-tier fantasy numbers – just that he will outperform his teammates at the position.

These include:

Skyy Moore: 22-250-0 as a rookie
Kadarius Toney: Reportedly could start the season on IR with a knee injury
Justin Watson: Special teamer who occasionally runs wind sprints on offense
Rashee Rice: Second-round rookie in offense who hardly made an effort to get their previous second-round rookie involved last season
Richie James: Third team in as many years, making $552,500 guaranteed
Justyn Ross: Sky-high talent, I got to admit, but also hardly a lock for greatness

Clearly, I took some liberties with accessing each competitor’s overall profile; that said, it’s at least a little bit weird that the man expected to run the most routes in Kansas City regularly goes off the board as their fourth WR in fantasy football land.

The only incumbent starting WR inside of a passing game led by Patrick f*cking Mahomes: There’s a path for MVS to lead this WR room in receiving.

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