2023 Keeper League Strategy and Value. Kyler Murray is a Cheat Code.

Keeper formats in fantasy football land are a helluva drug.

Rules vary by league in terms of:

How many players each manager can keep from one year to the next
Round cutoffs to be keeper eligible in the first place (no keepers inside the first four rounds is my personal home league rule)
Penalties to make the players more expensive and less cheat code-esque (keeper round moves up the following year)

The possibilities are endless – it is fantasy football, after all. But at the end of the day: Nailing a late-round keeper pick serves as a rather HUGE roster construction advantage that can help quickly build an otherwise unassuming team into a juggernaut.

What follows are three key tips to follow in keeper formats that will help you decide who to keep in 2023 as well as who to target for 2024.

When in doubt, take the value

There are essentially two questions you need to ask for every potential fantasy football keeper:

What is roughly the difference in draft capital between where you drafted the player last year compared to current ADP?
Is this a player who you feel confident in starting on a weekly basis?

Question No. 1 helps demonstrate the upside in keeping an inferior player at a drastically reduced cost. Some examples:

Dameon Pierce and Alexander Mattison both carry late-fifth-round ADP, but you can keep Pierce in the seventh or Mattison in the 12th. I will GLADLY take the extra five rounds of value with the latter back, thanks to the reality that we’re far more likely to find a Pierce-esque replacement in Round 7 than a Mattison-level player in Round 12.
Joe Burrow is a consensus top-six QB in fantasy football land, but if forced to choose between keeping Burrow in, say, Round 6 or an “inferior” player like Deshaun Watson in Round 15: Give me the STEEP discount considering just how much harder it will be to land a viable fantasy option in the final few rounds of drafts vs. a top-72 option.

Question No. 2 helps eliminate potential busts. Sure, Michael Gallup in Round 16 is technically providing more value than, say, Diontae Johnson in Round 6.

But if there simply isn’t a realistic path for Gallup to break into your starting lineup – what’s the point?

One easy way to mathematically solve this without getting too into the weeds of a specific player and pick value: Take a set of rankings (Fantasy Life’s are free!), assign a 1-200 point scale for both the rankings and ADP, and take the difference for each option.

A WR example:

Justin Jefferson’s rank as the No. 1 consensus player (200 points) at a keeper of 3.05 ADP (172 points) would give him a +28-point keeper score.
Jaylen Waddle’s rank as the No. 18 consensus player (183) at a keeper of 7.12 (117) would give him a +66-point keeper score.

Aug 19, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) warms up before the game against the Tennessee Titans at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

A RB vs. QB example:

Rachaad White’s rank as the No. 75 consensus player (125 points) at a keeper value of 13.11 (45 points) would give him a +70-point keeper score.
Geno Smith’s rank as the No. 111 consensus player (89 points) at a keeper value of 16.02 (18 points) would give him a +71-point keeper score.

This isn’t a perfect science; any keeper value chart will have a rough time fully intertwining league-specific rules with user-adjusted ranks.

Long story short: Make sure you are keeping a certifiably *good* player, and take the cheaper asset when forced to pick between two essentially equivalent options.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is the keeper cheat code of 2023

It remains unclear when Murray will return to the field. Failure to activate him from the PUP list by next week will result in the former No. 1 overall pick missing at least the first four games of the season.

There’s a decent chance we won’t see Murray until October at the earliest. And yet, at this point in the draft – who exactly offers more best-case scenario upside?

Murray is regularly being drafted after the top-50 RBs, top-70 WRs and top-18 TEs are already off the board; he’s a lottery ticket at a stage in the draft where managers will usually settle for a scratch-off.

There simply isn’t much of a track record of the 25-year-old QB playing professional football and NOT racking up fantasy points.

2022: 18.2 fantasy points per game (QB7)
2021: 21.5 (QB4)
2020: 23.7 (QB4)
2019: 17.8 (QB11)

Don’t be afraid to draft Murray LATE in redraft leagues and stash him in your IR spot until he’s ready to go – even if his 2023 upside is limited, we are talking about a regular upside QB1 who can be kept at a LATE-round cost for 2024.

Late-round tiebreaker: Take the rookie

While rookies do occasionally boom in fantasy football land, year-two players have been far more productive across every position.

The fantasy football market is well aware of this and accordingly has priced up second-year WRs … rather aggressively!

Garrett Wilson (2022: WR30 in PPR points per game. ADP: WR9)
Chris Olave (2022: WR26. ADP: WR12)
Christian Watson (2022: WR33. ADP: WR22)
Drake London (2022: WR45. ADP: WR24)

I found similar RB findings in the past, with first-round RBs experiencing a +5.3 difference in year-one to year-two ADP and day-two backs benefiting from a +9.2 average leap.

Two especially enticing rookies with an ADP outside of the top-150 picks who I find myself repeatedly going back to in the later stages of drafts:

Tyjae Spears, RB - Titans

The new rather undisputed No. 2 RB in Tennessee, Spears profiles as exactly the sort of pass-down threat who could turn Derrick Henry back into more of a one-dimensional early-down grinder. From The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s ever-excellent “The Beast”:

“A three-year starter at Tulane, Spears was consistently productive in offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda’s RPO-based multiple offense. After a torn ACL in 2020 and shared workload in 2021, he had an extremely productive 2022 campaign, finishing No. 5 in the country in rushing yards (1,581) and rushing yards per carry (6.90).

Spears is a slippery runner with his dynamic start/stop cutting skills, patient vision and darting acceleration, which are highlighted on counter and outside zone plays. He has the functional skills to provide value in the passing game, but he can be more dependable as a blocker and pass catcher.

Overall, Spears doesn’t have desired build or run strength, but his explosive read-plant-burst action allows him to abruptly change his rush path and elude tacklers. He shows the potential for three-down duties, although he will be at his best as part of a committee, similar to the Buffalo Bills’ James Cook.”

Spears probably won’t carry THAT much standalone FLEX value, but his handcuff upside is as high as ever as long as Dontrell Hilliard remains an unrestricted free agent and Hassan Haskins remains in deep legal trouble.

There’s also potential for Henry to be rested down the stretch if the Titans prove incapable of contending for the playoffs with this roster. Benefiting from two cake matchups against the Texans in the most important three weeks of the season would be awfully nice for a rookie stunting an incredibly affordable ADP at the moment.

This season is the last year the Titans need to keep Henry under contract; there’s a non-zero chance Spears is the RB to own in Tennessee this time next year – don’t be afraid to lock him in at a fraction of that cost right meow.

Jayden Reed, WR - Packers

He's expected to join Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in three-WR sets from day one if his preseason utilization is any indication.

There’s a chance Reed is really good at football! He earned Tier 2 treatment in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Supermodel and solid reviews from The Athletic’s Dane Brugler in his ever-excellent “The Beast” draft guide:

“A three-year starter at Michigan State, Reed was a perimeter receiver in offensive coordinator Jay Johnson’s offense. Although his senior year fell short of expectations because of injuries and the Spartans’ offensive struggles, he accounted for 46 explosive plays (20-plus yards) over the past two seasons and became just the third player in school history with multiple punt return touchdowns in the same season.

Reed has outstanding foot quickness and skillfully throttles his route speed to separate from coverage. Despite dropping too many easy ones, his focus is heightened on contested windows, and he shows a knack for timing his leaps and snatching the football off the helmets of defensive backs.

Overall, Reed will have a tougher time overcoming his slight size vs. NFL defensive backs, but his speed, route tempo and downfield ball skills are the ingredients of a potential NFL playmaker. With a few technical tweaks to his game, he has NFL starting ability (slot and outside) and adds value as a return man.”

At this stage of the draft, it’s hard enough to find a WR with a chance to work as one of the top-three target earners in their own offense – let alone one who might also be pretty, pretty, pretty good at the game.

Reed is one of the best late-round WR values in all of fantasy football, even with this price bump. Reed, Donovan Peoples-Jones and DeVante Parker are my three favorite late-round WR darts of anyone going Round 14 or later.

God forbid Jordan Love actually winds up being rather good: Reed stands out as a potential mega-riser this time next year.

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