Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

This game will feature three of the top four picks from the 2023 NFL Draft as CJ Stroud, Will Anderson, and the Houston Texans square off against Anthony Richardson’s Colts.

Despite both teams losing in Week 1, their respective fan bases have to feel good about the performances they saw from their new franchise QBs to start the year.

Anthony Richardson looked like everything he was promised to be and more. And the Colts' offense was not trying to hide their rookie QB as they checked in among the highest situational neutral pass rates of Week 1. 

Richardson delivered on that trust by posting solid numbers, finishing 14th among all QBs in both yards per attempt and adjusted completion percentage. Not bad for a guy who was considered an extremely raw passer coming out of college.

Richardson also delivered with his legs, accumulating 40 yards and a score on the ground. If he can continue to provide league-average passing stats alongside consistent rushing output, he is going to be an elite fantasy option in 2023.

The passing numbers are also welcome news for anyone who rosters a Colts pass catcher. In Week 1, the passing game ran through Michael Pittman and should continue to do so as their unquestioned top receiver.

But don’t hit the panic button just yet on Alec Pierce. His 87% route participation was encouraging and he is bound to be up and down all year in his role as the deep threat. The big games will come, but they may be hard to predict. 

Indianapolis’ RB room on the other hand needs a serious injection of talent. If only there was an All-Pro level back that the Colts could add alongside Richardson, oh wait… 

The Colts should get Zack Moss back this week. Although he isn’t the elite talent I was referring to above, it would be hard for him to be worse than what we saw from Deon Jackson in Week 1.

For the Texans, CJ Stroud was under pressure all game long (25 of his 54 dropbacks) against the Ravens. But Stroud has a decidedly softer matchup this week against a Colts defense that ranks poorly at all positions except LB in the Fantasy Life Unit Rankings.

Despite the pressure last week, Stroud showed flashes of the playmaking ability and arm talent that made him the second overall pick in the NFL Draft. 

The biggest fantasy takeaway from Week 1 was that the Texans WR duo of Nico Collins and Robert Woods separated from the rest of their position group and commanded nearly 50% of the target share from Stroud. No other player on Houston’s offense (including RBs and TEs) earned a 10% target share.

While there is a chance that young players like Tank Dell and John Metchie can emerge as the season wears on, for now, the passing game is set to flow through Collins and Woods.

Collins in particular looks poised for a breakout year and was even featured in Sam Wallace’s Dynasty Breakout Watch article this week.

The biggest fantasy disappointment of Week 1 for Houston was Dameon Pierce’s usage.

Fantasy managers who thought they were drafting a true bell-cow should be concerned for two reasons.

Pierce was in a 60/40 split with Devin Singletary for rush work and he came off the field for Mike Boone in obvious passing situations.

If this type of usage for Pierce holds, it would make him a TD-dependent flex play with limited weekly upside in a low-scoring offense.

I’m not willing to write him off entirely after one game, but another week or two of this committee approach and the hopes for a Dameon Pierce breakout season will be on life support.