Offseason Recap. 9 Fantasy Football Takeaways from the 2023 Preseason.

The preseason has come and gone. We laughed, we probably didn’t cry: But we are DEFINITELY ready for some real football action that will be here oh so soon.

The Fantasy Life squad has already done a great job identifying important utilization takeaways and other lessons from the latest preseason action.

Today’s goal is to look at some potentially deeper schematic trends that might just give us a leg up on identifying Week 1 mismatches.

Special thanks to Fantasy Life data partners Tru Media and PFF for the referenced advanced stats.

1. The Anthony Richardson show

It didn’t take long for Richardson to seize the QB1 job from journeyman Gardner Minshew. The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick remains relatively low on overall QB experience and will now get every opportunity to learn through inevitable early-career growing pains.

Two key metrics from the preseason help support the idea that Richardson could provide some truly great fantasy football goodness while struggling on the real-life scene: Nobody utilized run-pass-options (RPOs) or the no-huddle more frequently than the Colts in August.

28.4% RPO rate (next-closest team: WSH, 24.5%)
13.7% no-huddle rate (next-closest team: SEA, 13.2%)

One of my bold calls for 2023 is Richardson will set the NFL record for most carries by a QB in a single season — something that seems more possible than ever with disgruntled RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle/contract, PUP) unavailable for at least the first four games of the season.

Maybe just maybe this schematic trend helps lead to a fantasy boom as early as Week 1: The Jaguars were a bottom-five defense in yards per play (5.4) and EPA against (+0.11) vs. RPOs last season.

Don’t discount the possibility that new Colts head coach Shane Steichen manages to coax some fantasy football greatness out of his young QB early in the season. Far less talented passers and rushers like Taysom Hill and Tim Tebow became recommended QB1 options in fantasy land thanks to essentially nothing more than that sweet, sweet rushing upside — I’ll be firing up objectively the most-athletic QB the position has ever seen as a top-10 fantasy option in Week 1 and beyond.

2. Dameon Pierce might be this year’s version of Josh Jacobs

The archetype here is a mid-round RB who isn’t ranked higher in fantasy land because of the offensive environment and perceived workload issues despite said back showcasing a decent level of theoretical three-down ability previously in their career.

The talent here really isn’t in question: Only 2014 Marshawn Lynch forced a higher rate of missed tackles per touch than Pierce over the past 10 years.

This ability helped the rookie rack up 1,104 total yards and five scores in 13 games; Pierce was largely the only thing worth smiling about in the entire Texans organization last season.

The two primary concerns drafters have had this offseason:

Lack of a pass-down role: The likes of Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale regularly took pass-first snaps off the table in 2022, and the offseason signing of Devin Singletary didn’t seem to help matters. And yet, Pierce was getting the routes needed for RB1 upside according to his preseason first-team utilization.
Horrendous offensive line: PFF’s reigning 26th-ranked unit traded for RG Shaq Mason and spent a second-round pick on C Juice Scruggs. Additional moves to add tackles Josh Jones and George Fant add more depth to a team that looks to be embracing the run under new defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans (57.1% pass play rate ranked 24th in the preseason).

Life will probably still be a bit rough in the scoring department; there’s a very reasonable case to be made that C.J. Stroud will be throwing to the worst group of WRs that he’s played with since high school.

Still, low-scoring offenses have produced high-end fantasy RBs at a higher rate than any other position: Pierce has become my go-to mid-round RB in light of his newfound potential to carry a true every-down role and do big things with it.

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3. The Browns really might be ready to spread things out

Let’s check back in on one of Matthew Berry’s 23 things he learned at the NFL Combine:

“Cleveland's offense is going to be really interesting next year. Look for the Browns to add a speed wide receiver this off-season to go with Amari Cooper. One source told me “They are really going to open up the offense. Go five wide. Pass a lot. This is going to be Deshaun Watson's offense, not Nick Chubb's. They will pass a lot more than folks expect.”

Well, after three preseason games: No offense utilized more empty than the Browns (14.5% — only six offenses were even in double-digits). The 2023 preseason offense also ranked seventh (65.3%) in raw pass play percentage, a mark nearly 10% higher than their 24th-place regular season finish last year (55.6%).

Could this simply be because the Browns were without their top two RBs in Nick Chubb (rest) and Jerome Ford (hamstring)? Or maybe it’s just the f*cking preseason and head coach Kevin Stefanski felt like passing a little more?

Absolutely, but maybe it’s also the early result of something that was already being talked about plenty in training camp circles. I will continue to draft all key parties involved inside of an offense with an absolutely HUGE best-case upside should Deshaun Watson’s performance more closely resemble his four years in Houston as opposed to his six games at the end of 2022.

4. The Steelers look ready to take Kenny Pickett’s training wheels off

The 2021 Steelers passing game was rather painful to watch at times with final-year Ben Roethlisberger regularly taking the checkdown over anything downfield due to a late-career case of the noodle arm.

There was plenty of chatter last offseason about offensive coordinator Matt Canada getting to run “his offense,” with backup QB Mason Rudolph noting, “He’s a play-action guy, he’s a push the ball down the field kind of guy.”

The former concept continues to be almost completely non-existent in this offense, but the Steelers made more of an effort than ever to really challenge defenses deep in this year’s preseason:

2021 preseason deep-ball rate: 7.1% (22nd)
2021 regular season: 3.6% (27th)
2022 preseason: 10.1% (6th)
2022 regular season: 3.5% (28th)
2023 preseason: 13.9% (No. 1)

The case for this ensuing regular season rate not plummeting as low as last year comes down to the specific actions of Kenny Pickett, who boasted a 10.6-yard average target depth in this year’s preseason after largely dinking and dunking during last year’s exhibitions (6.6). Pickett was also far less willing to take chances deep in the regular season than Mitch Trubisky (10 vs. 8).

Throwing the ball downfield more often doesn’t guarantee a better offense, but it does make for more fantasy-friendly targets (yay) and potentially lighter boxes for the associated RBs. Overall, both Najee Harris (40.4%) and Jaylen Warren (40.3%) faced eight-plus defenders in the box on an above-average amount of their carries last season.

Is this all just a ploy to make myself feel better about drafting Diontae Johnson and Warren more than just about anybody in best ball land this offseason? Maybe, but that’s not going to stop me from continuing to buy into these discounted Steelers skill-position talents for another week thanks to their sky-high best-case volume upside and potential for target quality and scoring opportunities alike to be quite a bit superior with a second-year Pickett under center.

5. Sam Howell Washington Commanders QB1

The presence of Jacoby Brissett loomed, but Howell ultimately earned the Week 1 starting nod. The second-year talent will have a low-key awesome WR duo at his disposal once Terry McLaurin (toe) is healthy enough to join Jahan Dotson on the field.

Of course, we already knew that: The real fantasy-friendly takeaway here is that Howell continues to profile as the sort of signal-caller capable of being far better in fantasy land than in real life thanks to his willingness to use his legs: His 9.1% scramble rate ranked ninth among 39 qualified QBs this preseason and backs up his fantasy-friendly 12% rate from Week 18 last year.

Aug 21, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) attempts a pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

QBs who manage to rack up 100-plus rush attempts in a season almost never fail to post top-10 per-game numbers in fantasy land (88% hit rate). Current Fantasy Life projections have Howell as one of just eight QBs projected to rack up at least 80 rush attempts this season.

Should you roll into Week 1 with Howell as your fantasy squad’s undisputed QB1? Hell no, but he boasts the sort of archetype drafters should be prioritizing in the late-round scene at the position if going after it at all.

I’ve enjoyed drafting Howell as my third QB in best ball land all summer, and also am happy to add him as my backup in re-draft land on rosters without one of the position’s top-seven options already secured. The GOAT Matthew Berry himself even agrees!

6. Bill O’Brien is doing stuff

Patriots QB1 Mac Jones (because he’s the starter but also because the Patriots unironically only have one QB on their active roster at the time of this writing) wasn’t overly quiet about his disdain for Matt Patricia’s play-calling in 2022, at one point literally yelling “quick game sucks” among other things to the sideline.

At a minimum, the early returns on new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien’s offense indicate the longtime Texans head coach is willing to try some new things that will perhaps make life easier on his third-year QB.

RPO rate: 7.5% in 2022 regular season, 16.6% in 2023 preseason
Screen rate: 17%, 22.9%
Deep ball rate: 4.4%, 10%

Will these increases mean anything in potentially the NFL’s slowest overall offense? Maybe, maybe not, but the effort to at least get back to doing things the way Jones prefers will inevitably help the coaching staff decide whether or not the soon-to-be 25-year-old talent should be the face of the franchise for years to come.

Friendly reminder that WR DeVante Parker and TE Hunter Henry remain dirt cheap in fantasy drafts of most shapes and sizes BUT profile as two of the primary beneficiaries should this offense get back to partying like it's 2021 again (sixth-ranked scoring group!).

7. YAC help in Chicago?

It’s just the preseason.

THAT SAID: Chicago managed to put up some gaudy yards after the catch numbers, particularly when comparing against their lowly 2022 marks:

Yards after the catch per reception: 5.3 (No. 10) in 2022 regular season; 6.8 in 2023 preseason (No. 1)
Yards after contact per reception: 1.9 (No. 13); 2.1 (No. 7)

New No. 1 WR D.J. Moore also posted silly small-sample numbers, averaging a preseason-high 11.3 yards per route run. For reference, a mark over 2.0 is a good sign of an elite pass-game option.

Young QBs like Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs), Kyler Murray (DeAndre Hopkins), Joe Burrow (Ja’Marr Chase) and Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown) took massive leaps as passers after their team found a way to get them a true No. 1 WR. Funny how that works!

While I agree with the idea that Moore isn’t quite in the same class as those aforementioned ballers, it’s certainly a step in the right direction for a franchise that still boasts plenty of roster-building ammo in the form of the league’s eighth-most effective cap space and multiple 2024 first-round picks.

Will all of this result in Justin Fields becoming an elite overall QB? Who knows, but at least the third-year talent now has some level of decent weaponry after unironically entering his last start with Equanimeous St. Brown, N’Keal Harry and Byron Pringle as the offense’s top-three WRs.

8. Buccaneers Country: Let’s Bake

Credit to Baker Mayfield for beating out Kyle Trask for the time being. The 2018 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick was quietly just about perfect in his dress rehearsals, completing 14 of 15 pass attempts for 106 yards and two TDs without a single interception or sack taken.

Maybe, just maybe, part of the success was thanks to the offense’s newfound emphasis on utilizing play-action concepts, something that simply wasn’t a major part of the playbook within the Tom Brady-Bruce Arians-Byron Leftwich partnership.

2023 preseason play-action rate: 39.3% (No. 1)
2022 regular season: 15.9% (No. 32)
2021: 18.6% (No. 32)
2020: 19.4% (No. 30)

Yes, Mayfield has had more downs than up as a professional QB over the years.

Also yes, the Oklahoma product has been pretty solid when utilizing play-action passes over the years. Among 50 qualified QBs with 150-such dropbacks since 2018:

PFF passing grade: 84.6 (No. 19)
Passer rating: 103.6 (No. 22)
Yards per attempt: 8.8 (No. 16)

I get it: Those aren’t exactly world-beater numbers, but then again — maybe Mayfield doesn’t need to be one of the league’s very best QBs in order for perennial stud WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to keep on keeping on in fantasy land.

Play-action passing is a cheat code of sorts for offenses looking to create easy chunks of yardage through the air; here’s to hoping former Seahawks QB coach — now Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales — has enough tricks up his sleeves to again help his offense’s truly talented wide-outs stay afloat in fantasy land despite the presence of a new QB.

9. Offensive lines matter

And it’s accordingly a tough look for the Giants and Saints to stand out as the league’s single-worst units in both pass- and run-blocking:

Pressure rate allowed: Saints (40.1%, 31st), Giants (41.3%, 32nd)
Rush yards before contact per carry: Saints (0.3, 32nd), Giants (0.5, 31st)

Note that both units still posted bottom-six marks when looking specifically at first-quarter and first-half data; this wasn’t just an instance of starters playing great before giving way to brutal backups.

“But Ian, it’s the preseason. Literally, nothing matters.” Maybe! Although the performance in these two metrics last preseason certainly wound up being directionally correct for most parties involved when evaluating the ensuring regular season performances:

Bottom-five teams in 2022 preseason pressure rate allowed: Rams (32nd), Titans (31st), Giants (30th), Raiders (29th), Eagles (28th)
2022 regular season ranks: Rams (22nd), Titans (30th), Giants (32nd), Raiders (28th), Eagles (13th)
Bottom-five teams in 2022 preseason yards before contact per carry: Panthers (32nd), Rams (31st), Chiefs (30th), Steelers (29th), Bengals (28th)
2022 regular season ranks: Panthers (24th), Rams (19th), Chiefs (7th), Steelers (20th), Bengals (29th)

Maybe the Saints and Giants join the Eagles and Chiefs as offenses that proved easily capable of overcoming their poor preseason performances, although the reality that PFF ranked the Saints (24th) and Giants (29th) lowly in their 2023 o-line rankings isn’t a great sign.

Failure to prove this preseason trend false won’t help any of the high-priced fantasy assets involved reach their respective sky-high ceilings; here’s to hoping both of these units don’t become a thorn in the side for all fantasy managers involved.