In what has become an annual tradition, I publish my official pie rankings during the week of Thanksgiving.

And I’ll do so again this year … but here’s the thing.

1. My rankings change little from year to year because I’m a middle-aged guy who’s set in his ways.
2. I have previously ranked and provided some notes on my top 25 pies, but I’ll confine myself to the top 10 this year. The world doesn’t need to know my thoughts on mincemeat pie. (It’s disgusting.) 

With that out of the way, here are my top 10, ordered from worst to first.

No. 10: Lemon Meringue Pie

I’m putting this in the top 10 primarily for my mom since I think this is her favorite. I mean, she’s the one baking all these pies, right? — because I’m definitely not making them.

Besides, this one is a good palate cleanser between servings of all the other (real) pies.

No. 9: Any Berry Pie That Isn’t Blueberry or Strawberry Pie

In my thinking, blueberry pie is a half tier above this general category, while strawberry — and the affiliated strawberry-rhubarb and plain rhubarb — is at least one tier below.

But all the other pies included in this group — blackberry, boysenberry, huckleberry, raspberry, and I guess cranberry — are all in the same tier and sort of versions of each other.

No. 8: Blueberry Pie

This is fine during fall but best during summer, especially the Fourth of July, with strawberry ice cream and whipped cream. I am nothing if not patriotic with my desserts.

No. 7: Peach Pie

This was my go-to pie in high school. I’m a little bit of a purist, but if you want to church up the traditional peach pie by mixing in some berries, I guess I can allow that.

No. 6: Pear Pie

This is what my mother-in-law makes. On the off chance that she reads this piece, I must include it. 

Plus, it’s good. And I’m definitely not just saying that, Anna.

No. 5: Apple Pie

This is where we take a big jump up to the top tier.

Depending on the time of year, the circumstances, the recipe nuances of the pies in question, etc., any of the top five would be a fine choice for the No. 1 overall spot.

I see apple pie as a fantastic utility option for all seasons and occasions. It’s almost impossible to have too much apple pie at an event or make a big mistake by bringing it to a function.

A good apple pie is like a league-winning flex play. And it’s also like pizza: Even mediocre apple pie is still good. 

No. 4: Pecan Pie

Last year, I had pecan at No. 3, but I’m dropping it to No. 4.

A good pecan pie is as good as any kind of pie there is. But it’s almost impossible to find a good pecan pie at a grocery store or even a bakery.

It needs to be homemade — ideally with pecans from Texas, bourbon from Kentucky, and a recipe from Louisiana.

But it’s also not easy to make a good pecan pie at home: The person baking it can’t be a novice.

So that explains the move from No. 3 to No. 4. This pie has a lot of upside but also downside.

No. 3: Key Lime Pie

This was my other go-to pie in high school. 

I acknowledge that key lime pie is not for everyone. Of course, many people are morons.

Also, many don’t think of key lime pie as a Thanksgiving dessert. But if you put some cranberry sauce on it … problem solved.

No. 2: Cherry Pie

This is No. 1 outside of the holiday season — and even in the colder months, it’s a strong contender for the top spot.

If you don’t like cherry pie with vanilla ice cream, you’ve probably committed some heinous crimes for which you’re yet to be convicted.

Rest assured, I’ll make it part of my life’s mission to ensure your imprisonment.

No. 1: Pumpkin Pie & Sweet Potato Pie

I grew up with pumpkin pie and had never heard of sweet potato pie until I was an adult.

But there has typically been an offering of both at the Thanksgiving gatherings I’ve gone to for the past decade or so, and I’ll be honest — I can barely taste the difference.

I’m sure people with more sophisticated palates can distinguish between the two, and I know both have their ardent supporters, but I don’t discriminate.

If you show up to my house with pumpkin pie, cool. I’ll eat it. Same with sweet potato pie.

It’s all pie. And there’s no such thing as bad pie.

Except for mincemeat.

I’d rather eat a grindstone.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 12

Here are my preliminary Week 12 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 1:15 pm ET on Tuesday, Nov. 21, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Bye Week: Every team is active this week. Let’s have a holiday.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 QBs

Josh Allen (Bills) at Eagles

• Bills: +3.5
• O/U: 48.5
• TT: 22.5

Life has not been easy on Allen this year. He leads the league with 12 INTs, OC Ken Dorsey was fired after Week 10, and the Bills are currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture with their 6-5 record.

And yet Allen has played heroic ball this season: He’s No. 1 in passing TDs (22), No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.163, per RBs Don’t Matter), and No. 4 in QBR (69.9, per ESPN). For the season, he’s the No. 1 fantasy producer (23.6 FPPG). He’s still very much “Josh Allen.”

The Eagles are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.7).

As a road underdog in the regular season, Allen is 10-4-2 ATS (33.3% ROI) and 7-9 ML (48.3% ROI, per Action Network).

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Commanders

• Cowboys: -11
• O/U: 49
• TT: 30

Prescott was slow to start the year, but in the five games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss, he has passed for 1,543 yards and 14 TDs with just two INTs and added 21-96-2 rushing. In four of those games, he has been a top-three fantasy QB.

The Commanders are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.8) and allowed undrafted rookie QB Tommy DeVito to pass for 246 yards and three TDs in a 31-19 win for the Giants. Without EDGEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young, whom they traded at the deadline, the Commanders should offer Prescott a consistently clean pocket.

As a statistical frontrunner, Prescott is in an ideal situational spot: At home, he’s 31-25-1 ATS (7.6% ROI). As a favorite, he’s 47-34-2 ATS (12.0% ROI). In division, 26-11 ATS (37.0% ROI). And as a divisional home favorite … 13-4 ATS (50.3% ROI).

Joshua Dobbs (Vikings) vs. Bears

• Vikings: -3.5
• O/U: 43
• TT: 23.25

Over his past five games, Dobbs has been a high-end QB2 at worst, with 16.1, 24.9, 24.9, 25.1, and 17.9  fantasy points as an underdog in each game. With his recent play, he has gotten some serious buzz as Comeback Player of the Year: He’s No. 3 in the market at +400 (BetMGM).

Nov 19, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Viking quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

With sufficient passing ability (6.0 AY/A) and near-elite scrambling ability (70-389-6 rushing), Dobbs is a legitimate Konami Code fantasy asset.

This week, he has a chance to get back WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR), and the Bears are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.148).

Side note: One of my biggest regrets this NFL season is dropping Dobbs in a deep head-to-head best-ball dynasty league shortly before he was traded to the Vikings.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 RBs

Derrick Henry (Titans) vs. Panthers

• Titans: -3.5
• O/U: 37
• TT: 20.25

Henry has disappointed with just 64 scoreless yards on 21 carries and three targets over the past two weeks. But in those games, he also had incredibly tough matchups as a road underdog: In Week 9, he faced the Buccaneers, who are No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.216), and then last week, the Jaguars — No. 1 in defensive rush SR (32.7%).

This week is a home favorite, and he’s facing the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.073) and SR (45.2%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

He’s no longer the player he once was (125.7 scrimmage yards per game in 2019-22; this year, 83.0), but he has 12-plus opportunities in every game but one and could approach 20 touches in this spot.

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Packers

• Lions: -7.5
• O/U: 45.5
• TT: 26.5

I logged two winning bets last week on Montgomery in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker — anytime TD (+105) and over 49.5 rushing yards (-110) — and there’s a chance I’ll have similar positions this week.

Despite missing multiple weeks to injury, Montgomery is No. 3 in the league with 11 carries inside the five-yard line. Aside from Week 6, which he exited early after just 18 snaps, Montgomery has scored a TD in every game played and amassed 632 yards on 112 carries and 11 targets across his six other contests.

Against the Packers in Week 4, Montgomery went off for 141 yards and three TDs on 32 carries and two targets, and the Packers could be without LB De'Vondre Campbell (neck), who left Week 11 with an injury and didn’t practice on Monday.

Brian Robinson (Commanders) at Cowboys

• Commanders: +11
• O/U: 49
• TT: 19

I’m normally not bullish on double-digit underdog RBs, and Robinson isn’t an exciting player. Still, he has a high floor with either 70 yards or a TD in every game this year but one, and he has developed something of a pass-catching skill set (27-314-3 receiving, 33 targets).

Despite losing by 12 points, the Commanders gave Robinson 17 carries and nine targets last week. They could give him a similarly heavy workload this week — especially with No. 2 RB Antonio Gibson (toe) limited with an injury — in an attempt to shorten the game and control the ball.

The Cowboys are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (44.8%).

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) at Colts

• Buccaneers: +2.5
• O/U: 44 
• TT: 20.75

I entered the season as a White skeptic, and I haven’t seen enough this year to make me change my mind: His career rushing efficiency is atrocious (3.5 yards per carry), and his average depth of target is uninspiring (-0.9 yards).

Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) hands off the ball to Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) for a touchdown run against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

But he’s the clear lead back in his offense: He’s only had one game this year with fewer than 16 opportunities. And since the Week 5 bye, he has 521 yards and four TDs on 78 carries and 31 targets in six games. Volume is king.

The Colts are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.8).

Gus Edwards (Ravens) at Chargers

• Ravens: -3.5
• O/U: 47
• TT: 25.25

Edwards is still in a committee with RBs Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell, and QB Lamar Jackson is always liable to steal some designed attempts, but Edwards has 125 carries and 10 targets in 10 games since No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1.

And he’s the team’s locked-in goal-line back: Over the past six weeks, he has scored nine TDs on 17 carries inside the 10-yard line.

It’s not hard to imagine him finding the endzone once again this week as a favorite against the Chargers, who will be without EDGE Joey Bosa (foot, IR).

Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs. 49ers

• Seahawks: +6.5
• O/U: 43
• TT: 18.25

No. 1 RB Kenneth Walker (oblique) exited last week with an injury, and in his place, the rookie Chrabonnet served as the lead back for the Seahawks. He didn’t do much (a not-so-nice 69 scoreless yards), but his usage was excellent (15 carries, six targets, 85% snap rate, and 71% route rate, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Tool).

I’m skeptical that Walker will return to action this week — he didn’t practice on Monday — and if he’s out, then Charbonnet is in line for an every-down workload.

The 49ers are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.031).

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) at Bengals

• Steelers: -1
• O/U: 34.5
• TT: 17.75

This summer, many die-hard Steelers fans bristled at the suggestion that Warren deserved a larger share of the backfield work. Now, even the most ardent Najee Harris truthers can’t deny what’s apparent to all: Warren is a valuable playmaker for the Steelers.

As such, he has seen his usage increase since the Week 6 bye (46 carries, 17 targets), and with his expanded workload, he has put up 437 yards and three TDs over the past five games.

I expect him to continue to see similar work against the Bengals, who are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (-0.021).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 WRs

A.J. Brown (Eagles) vs. Bills

• Eagles: -3.5
• O/U: 48.5
• TT: 26

Brown had just four targets in Week 11, which he turned into one eight-yard reception. The last time he had a comparably poor showing like that — Week 2 (4-29-0 receiving, six targets) — he followed it up with 56-897-6 receiving on 76 targets in seven games.

I’m not worried about what I saw out of him in Week 11: He leads the league with a 47.4% air share, and since joining the Eagles last year, he has an electric 10.4 yards per target.

In the secondary, the Bills are without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR) and CB Kaiir Elam (ankle, IR), and they might also be without CBs Dane Jackson (concussion) and Taron Johnson (concussion) and FS Taylor Rapp (neck), all of whom exited Week 11 with injuries.

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs. Commanders

• Cowboys: -11
• O/U: 49
• TT: 30

Lamb is just 10 games into the season, and he already has his fourth consecutive campaign with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards.

He has been especially hot in the aftermath of the team’s devastating Week 5 loss to the 49ers, putting up 47-655-4 receiving on 60 targets and 3-33-1 rushing in five games.

The Commanders are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (34.3), and they have allowed big performances this year to other No. 1 WRs in Stefon Diggs (8-111-0, 12 targets), A.J. Brown (9-175-2, 13 targets; 8-130-2, eight targets), D.J. Moore (8-230-3, 10 targets), Drake London (9-125-0, 12 targets), and D.K. Metcalf (7-98-0, 12 targets).

Against the Commanders last year, Lamb had 11-149-2 receiving on 15 targets in two games.

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) at Seahawks

• 49ers: -6.5
• O/U: 43
• TT: 24.75

Aiyuk came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight TDs receiving, and he has continued to impress this year with 40-788-4 receiving on 55 targets in his eight full games (he exited Week 2 early with a shoulder injury and missed Week 3).

Against No. 1 WRs — Puka Nacua (10-119-0, 15 targets; 5-70-1, seven targets), Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-102-0, seven targets), Adam Thielen (11-145-1, 14 targets), Ja’Marr Chase (6-80-0, 13 targets), and Amari Cooper (6-89-0, 11 targets) — the Seahawks have been vulnerable.

Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Buccaneers

• Colts: -2.5
• O/U: 44
• TT: 23.25

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons — he was the No. 1 WR with a 99% route rate last year — and this year, he has 98 targets in 10 games, which he has leveraged into 66-677-3 receiving.

He’s the No. 1 red-zone receiver in the league with a 45% share of targets inside the 20-yard line.

Pittman should be rested off the bye, and the Buccaneers could be without perimeter CBs Jamel Dean (foot) and Carlton Davis (hip).

Puka Nacua (Rams) at Cardinals

• Rams: Pick’Em
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 22.25

No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) exited Week 11 after 18 snaps, and in his absence, Nacua operated as the team’s top pass catcher with 5-70-1 receiving on seven targets.

And, of course, he had an unreal 39-501-1 receiving on 52 targets in Weeks 1-4 when Kupp was on IR.

I doubt Kupp will return to action in Week 12, and the Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.9%).

Adam Thielen (Panthers) at Titans

• Panthers: +3.5
• O/U: 37
• TT: 16.75

There’s a lot that’s wrong with the Panthers offense, but Thielen isn’t one of the problems. Following his injury-impacted lackluster Week 1 (2-12-0 receiving, two targets), Thielen has racked up 74-714-4 receiving on 95 targets in nine games.

With his shift to the slot, Thielen has reemerged as an attractive fantasy option in his first season with the Panthers, and the Titans are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.182).

D.J. Moore (Bears) at Vikings

• Bears: +3.5
• O/U: 43
• TT: 19.75

Moore finally got back QB Justin Fields last week, who exited Week 6 with a thumb injury and was sidelined for Weeks 7-10. With his starting QB, the No. 1 WR looked like himself again (7-96-1 receiving, nine targets).

In his six full games with Fields (Weeks 1-5 & 11), Moore has 34-627-6 receiving on 43 targets.

The Vikings could be without CB Akayleb Evans (calf), who neither practiced nor played last week.

Tank Dell (Texans) vs. Jaguars

• Texans: +2
• O/U: 48
• TT: 23

Dell was a part-time player in Week 1 (48% snap rate), and he exited Week 5 early with a concussion that sidelined him for Week 6, but in his seven other games — all with a snap rate of at least 60% — he has 36-568-6 receiving on 59 targets and 8-43-0 rushing. 

The Jaguars might be without No. 1 CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring), who has been sidelined for much of the past six weeks, and Dell had 5-145-1 receiving on seven targets against the Jaguars in Week 3.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Chargers

• Ravens: -3.5
• O/U: 47
• TT: 25.25

Despite the return in Week 5 of WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, Flowers has been the No. 1 WR on the Ravens with a 90% route rate and 22% target share.

Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) runs against Cincinnati Bengals safety Dax Hill (23) during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

And with the absence of TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) — and maybe also Beckham (shoulder), who suffered an injury last week — Flowers could see even more usage as the No. 1 pass catcher in the offense.

Detractors might knock Flowers for having just one TD, but the scoring should come soon with his workload — and he scored a sheesh-worthy TD last week that was bogusly called back.

The Chargers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (34.8), and Flowers has an advantageous matchup in the slot against CB Ja’Sir Taylor, a second-year sixth-rounder with a 57.5 coverage grade (per PFF).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Falcons

• Saints: Pick’Em
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 21.25

I highlight Shaheed a lot in this piece, but it’s because he’s often undervalued relative to his upside.

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage. 

He’s unpolished as a receiver, but his big-play ability is undoubted: Through 10 games, he has 31-525-3 receiving on 50 targets with 6-33-0 rushing and a punt return TD.

And he could see more usage than usual this week, as No. 2 WR Michael Thomas (knee) is uncertain to play. With Thomas leaving Week 10 early, Shaheed had a career-high nine targets.

In his one game against the Falcons last year, Shaheed had 3-95-1 receiving on four targets.

Demario Douglas (Patriots) at Giants

• Patriots: -3
• O/U: 33.5
• TT: 18.25

Douglas is a small Day 3 rookie slot man — so of course, he’s already the No. 1 pass catcher for the Patriots. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, Douglas has led all New England WRs with an 82% route rate and 23% target share in four games, which he has leveraged into 20-218-0 receiving. 

That’s not exactly sexy, but it’s also not nothing. With 6-9 targets and 4-6 receptions in each game since Week 7, Douglas has a nice floor for the desperate.

The Giants are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.0).

Jayden Reed (Packers) at Lions

• Packers: +7.5
• O/U: 45.5
• TT: 19

As a slot receiver, Reed (64% route rate) has played behind WRs Christian Watson (79%) and Romeo Doubs (81%) since the Week 6 bye, but he has been the team’s most consistently dynamic playmaker this year (9.1 yards per target).

Even as a rookie, Reed leads the Packers with 463 yards receiving, adding 5-65-1 rushing. He gives off lowkey 2012 Randall Cobb vibes.

Against the Lions in Week 4, Reed turned five targets into 55 yards, and he has probably leveled up since then. Following the Week 6 bye, Reed has put up 320 yards and three TDs on 24 targets and four carries in five games. 

If he’s available, pick Reed up off waivers.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 TEs

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Eagles

• Bills: +3.5
• O/U: 48.5
• TT: 22.5

Since returning in Week 7 from a concussion that sidelined him the prior week, Kincaid (34-318-2 receiving, 39 targets, 25% target rate) has basically been a co-No. 1 pass catcher with WR Stefon Diggs (28-275-2 receiving, 44 targets, 24% target rate). That’s fantastic usage and production, and I expect the utilization to stick with No. 2 TE Dawson Knox (wrist, IR) out.

Even with new S Kevin Byard (acquired via trade with the Titans in October), the Eagles have continued to allow TEs to put up fantasy points after losing SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson, FS Marcus Epps, and LBs Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards this offseason.

In Byard’s three games with the Eagles, Logan Thomas (6-44-1 receiving, eight targets), Jake Ferguson (7-91-1, 10 targets), and Travis Kelce (7-44-1, nine targets) have all had top-eight fantasy performances.

Trey McBride (Cardinals) vs. Rams

• Cardinals: Pick’Em
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 22.25

McBride disappointed last year as a rookie (29-265-1 receiving, 39 targets), but this year, the 2021 unanimous All-American and Mackey Award winner has taken a big step forward: Since No. 1 TE Zach Ertz (quad, IR) was sidelined, McBride has 26-291-1 receiving on 35 targets in four games.

Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride celebrates his first down catch during their 25-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons at State Farm Stadium on Nov. 12, 2023, in Glendale.

With QB Kyler Murray stabilizing the offense since his Week 10 return, McBride has true league-winning upside.

The Rams have struggled against TEs since losing SS Taylor Rapp, FS Nick Scott, and LB Bobby Wagner this offseason, and McBride had 4-62-0 receiving on five targets against the Rams in Week 6 despite splitting work with Ertz at the time.

David Njoku (Browns) at Broncos

• Browns: +2
• O/U: 35.5
• TT: 16.75

Njoku hasn’t fully lived up to the first-round draft capital the Browns invested in him in 2017. Still, he has exhibited plenty of explosiveness (7.6 yards per target) since HC Kevin Stefanski joined the team in 2020, and since the Week 5 bye, he has been a key contributor with 29-295-2 receiving on 51 targets in six games.

In rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s two starts (Weeks 4 & 11), Njoku has seen 22 targets.

The Broncos are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.4) and will be without SS Kareem Jackson (suspension) and SS Caden Sterns (knee, IR), and maybe also SS P.J. Locke (ankle), who missed last week.

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)