Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 9.

To quote the immortal and definitely not dumb Lloyd Christmas: “We’ve got no food. We’ve got no jobs. Our pets’ heads are falling off!”

Offense in Week 8 was ugly, largely because the slate featured a host of No. 2 QBs and a panoply of injuries at the position.

Week 9 will be better.

Probably.

But maybe not.

Either way, become the grindstone.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 9

Here are my preliminary Week 9 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
Must be added if they are on waivers.
Possess underappreciated upside.
Have advantageous matchups.
Appear in my DFS player pool.
Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
Catch my eye with their player projections.
Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
Rankings Accuracy: As of Week 7, I’m No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest (Week 8 is not graded as of writing). Last year, I was No. 11. The year before that, No. 14. In total, I’ve finished in the top 20 five times.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 31, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
Bye Week: The Broncos, Lions, 49ers, and Jaguars are on bye.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 QBs

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Dolphins (in Germany)

Chiefs: -2.5
O/U: 50.5
TT: 26.5

Mahomes last week had literally the worst game of his career (4.0 AY/A), but he had the flu and was facing a familiar opponent for the second team in 17 days. Weird stuff can happen in divisional rematches, especially against desperate underdogs with nothing to lose.

I’m not reading much into last week. The week prior, Mahomes was the No. 1 QB with 34.9 fantasy points. He’s still Mahomes, and since his first year as a starter (2018), he is No. 1 in FPPG (26.5).

The Dolphins are No. 8 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (18.1 FPPG).

Even with his modest start to the season, Mahomes is now No. 2 in the MVP market. The best price available for him is +400 (DraftKings). I have a +500 ticket on him to win MVP logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

Derek Carr (Saints) vs. Bears

Saints: -7.5
O/U: 41
TT: 24.25

Carr was acceptably unspectacular in Weeks 1-2 (6.7 AY/A) as he transitioned into the new offense, but he exited Week 3 with a shoulder injury, which greatly limited him in Weeks 4-5 (5.6 AY/A), and his lackluster performance in that stretch colored much of the common perception of him this season.

But since returning to full practice in Week 6, Carr has ripped off three consecutive games with 300-plus yards passing (7.2 AY/A), and — in my opinion — he has one of the league’s best WR trios (Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed).

Carr is always liable to lose QB snaps to wildcat TE Taysom Hill, but the reward outweighs the risk against the Bears, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.200, per RBs Don’t Matter).

If Carr is available, add him off waivers.

Mac Jones (Patriots) vs. Commanders

Patriots: -3.5
O/U: 40.5
TT: 22

I know this is disgusting, but with the bye weeks and all the QB injuries, I expect Jones to be a serviceable-ish player this week.

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) drops back to pass against the Miami Dolphins during the second half of an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Oct. 29, 2023.

There’s nothing special about Jones. He’s No. 29 in AY/A (5.6), ahead of only Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, and Daniel Jones. But after an especially rough stretch in Weeks 4-6 (3.1 AY/A), he has at least shown improvement over his past two games (74.6% completion rate, 7.9 AY/A).

And what he really has going for him is the matchup: The Commanders are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.5) — and they are now without EDGEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young, both of whom they just traded.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 RBs

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) at Panthers

Colts: -3
O/U: 44
TT: 23.5

Taylor had 11 carries and one target for 94 yards before tweaking his ankle shortly before the two-minute warning in the second quarter. After that, he had just one carry and one target for three yards total.

But Taylor continued to play ahead of No. 2 RB Zach Moss in the second half — he had a season-high 61% snap rate — and HC Shane Steichen has indicated that Taylor was not limited during the game. I’m a smidge skeptical, but we’ll see.

Assuming that Taylor is healthy, I’ll be bullish on Taylor this week. After missing the first month and working his way back into game shape in Weeks 5-6, Taylor has put up 217 yards and a TD on 30 carries and six targets over the past two games. He looks like himself.

The Panthers are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.139) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

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Saquon Barkley (Giants) at Raiders

Giants: +2.5
O/U: 37.5
TT: 17.5

QB Daniel Jones (neck) will likely return to game action this week after practicing every day (albeit limitedly) last week, so the Giants should be better on offense. And they also might get back LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and RT Evan Neal (ankle).

All of that is good news for Barkley, who has 344 yards and a TD on 81 carries and 14 targets in three games since returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him for Weeks 3-5.

The Raiders are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (0.000), and the Giants are 17-8 ATS (31.4% ROI, per Action Network) as road underdogs with Jones at quarterback.

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) vs. Chiefs (in Germany)

Dolphins: +2.5
O/U: 50.5
TT: 24

Over the past three weeks, Mostert — without RB De’Von Achane (knee, IR) but also without LT Terron Armstead (back, ankle, knees, IR) and C Connor Williams (groin) — has 229 yards and four TDs on 39 carries and six targets, and he might get both Armstead and Williams back this week.

With 12-plus opportunities in every game this season, Mostert has an elevated floor, and with his elite efficiency (5.4 yards per carry, 6.3 yards per target), he has a vaulted ceiling.

The Chiefs have an RB-friendly funnel defense that is No. 3 in dropback EPA (-0.151) but No. 31 in rush EPA (0.016).

Josh Jacobs (Raiders) vs. Giants

Raiders: -2.5
O/U: 37.5
TT: 20

After holding out all of training camp to get a better contract, Jacobs has inevitably regressed from last year’s first-team All-Pro campaign, where he led the league with 393 touches and 2,053 yards.

But it’s not as if he has been terrible this season: He has 650 yards (and, fine, just three TDs) through eight weeks with 15-plus opportunities in every game.

He should continue to see his usual workload as a home favorite against the Giants, who are No. 24 in defensive rush EPA (-0.040) and just traded DT Leonard Williams.

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. Dolphins (in Germany)

Chiefs: -2.5
O/U: 50.5
TT: 26.5

Pacheco had just 37 scoreless yards last week, but even so, he has 619 yards and four TDs on 108 carries and 27 targets in eight games.

He has 12-plus opportunities in every game this year, and the Dolphins are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (43.4%).

Jerome Ford (Browns) vs. Cardinals

Browns: -7.5
O/U: 37.5
TT: 22.5

Ford (ankle) exited Week 7 with an injury that initially looked like it might sideline him for multiple weeks. However, he suited up last week and still saw decent (albeit season-low) usage with a 33% snap rate and 11 opportunities.

Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) looks to cover a loose ball Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, during a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

This week, I expect Ford to see something close to the backfield-leading 56% snap rate he had in Weeks 3-6 following the season-ending knee injury to No. 1 RB Nick Chubb (per our Utilization Report), and in his first six games this year he put up 448 yards and four TDs on 78 carries and 19 targets.

The Browns are big home favorites, and the Cardinals are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.0 FPPG).

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs. Colts

Panthers: +3
O/U: 44
TT: 20.5

Hubbard had just 54 scoreless yards last week. Still, he dominated the Panthers backfield out of the Week 7 bye with a 66% snap rate, 71% rush share, 40% route rate, 100% of the carries inside the five-yard line, and 100% of the snaps inside two minutes, even though previous No. 1 RB Miles Sanders (shoulder) practiced fully and wasn’t listed on the final injury report.

It looks as if Hubbard has clawed his way up the depth chart, and with the usage he had last week, he should have better performances in the future.

Why not this week? The Colts are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.0 FPPG).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 WRs

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) vs. Seahawks

Bengals: -2.5
O/U: 48.5
TT: 25.5

Chase, along with the entire Bengals offense, disappointed in Weeks 1-2 (10-70-0 receiving on 17 targets, 1-2-0 rushing), but he has been undeniably studly since then, with 50-586-4 receiving on 68 targets in five games.

With 2,501 yards and 22 TDs receiving across his first two seasons, the third-year Chase is still very much one of the league’s best receivers.

The Bills are vulnerable on the perimeter without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR).

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Eagles

Cowboys: +3
O/U: 46
TT: 21.5

Lamb has three consecutive seasons with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards, and he’s now pacing for his best season ever with 46-633-3 receiving on 56 targets and 4-33-0 rushing in seven games.

Especially encouraging is that he led the league last week with 14 targets, which he leveraged into 12-158-2 receiving.

Last year, he had 15-188-2 receiving on 21 targets and 2-9-0 rushing against the Eagles, who this year are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (37.7 FPPG).

Against HC Nick Sirianni’s Eagles, the Cowboys with QB Dak Prescott are 3-0 ATS (90.5% ROI) and have covered by a margin of +12.7 points.

Cooper Kupp (Rams) at Packers

Rams: +3
O/U: 39.5
TT: 18.25

The Rams are coming off a disappointing 34-20 loss to the Cowboys and could be without QB Matthew Stafford (thumb), who exited last week with an injury, but even if he’s out, I’ll still be (reservedly) optimistic on Kupp: HC Sean McVay is 6-1 ATS (64.7% ROI) off a loss when starting a backup QB.

Since returning to action in Week 5 from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the first month of the season, Kupp has looked like himself with 21-316-1 receiving on 38 targets with a two-point conversion.

The Packers are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.5%), they’re without CB Eric Stokes (foot, IR) and SS Darnell Savage (calf, IR), and they just traded away CB Rasul Douglas. On top of that, No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (back) is hampered by an injury and almost never slides inside, and slot CB Keisean Nixon has allowed a 79.4% catch rate since joining the Packers last year.

Adam Thielen (Panthers) vs. Colts

Panthers: +3
O/U: 44
TT: 20.5

With his shift to the slot, Thielen has reemerged as an attractive fantasy option in his first season with the Panthers. He struggled in Week 1 while playing through an ankle injury (2-12-0 receiving, two targets), but since Week 2, he has been a machine with 55-569-4 receiving on 68 targets, 1-6-0 rushing, and a two-point conversion in six games.

Even with rookie QB Bryce Young's first-year growing pains, Thielen projects forward as a reliable player.

The Colts are without CB Dallis Flowers (Achilles, IR) and could be without CB Julius Brents (quad), who missed last week.

Chris Olave (Saints) vs. Bears

Saints: -7.5
O/U: 41
TT: 24.25

This season feels like a lost campaign for Olave with his NFL-high 750 unrealized air yards, but the good news is that in eight games, he has 77 targets, which he has at least leveraged into 517 yards … and, fine, just one TD — but with that kind of usage the yards and TDs will find him.

And he flashed last year as a rookie with 1,042 yards receiving and 8.8 yards per target.

In the words of Bon Jovi, “Keep the faith.”

The Bears are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (49.2%).

Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Seahawks

Ravens: -5.5
O/U: 43
TT: 24.25

Even with the return in Week 5 of WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, Flowers has still easily been the No. 1 WR on the Ravens with a 91% route rate, 22% target rate, and 25% target share over that time frame.

Oct 15, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) celebrates after an NFL International Series game against the Tennessee Titans at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

For the year, Flowers has a respectable 473 yards and a TD on 61 targets, 44 receptions, and six carries — and with that kind of production, he should soon find the endzone with increasing regularity.

Flowers moves across the formation and operates in the slot more than Beckham and Bateman, so he could have a soft matchup in the interior, as the Cardinals could be without their primary and backup slot defenders — FS Jalen Thompson (hamstring) and CB Antonio Hamilton (groin) — neither of whom practiced nor played last week.

The Seahawks are No. 8 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.6 FPPG).

Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs. Chargers

Jets: +3
O/U: 41.5
TT: 19.25

Wilson’s raw numbers through seven games might not impress (39-469-2 receiving, 68 targets), but his utilization within the Jets offense is elite (97% route rate, 26% target rate, 33% target share, 48% air share, 57% of endzone targets, league-high 57% of redzone targets, and league-high 82.6% WOPR).

The Chargers are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (49.8%).

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) at Steelers

Titans: +2.5
O/U: 37
TT: 17.25

Even if you take out what Hopkins did last week, he still has an efficient 8.0 yards per target this year in his first season with the Titans — and then he had 4-128-3 receiving on six targets in Week 8 with rookie QB Will Levis making his first NFL start.

Hopkins (toe) has been limited in practice this week, but I’m not concerned about the injury. He was also limited in practice last week but was left off the final report. I expect him to play on Thursday Night Football.

The Steelers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.0 FPPG).

Amari Cooper (Browns) vs. Cardinals

Browns: -7.5
O/U: 37.5
TT: 22.5

The Browns might be without QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder), who exited Week 7 and missed Week 8 after aggravating the rotator cuff injury that sidelined him for Weeks 4-6.

Even so, Cooper has 27 targets over the past three weeks while playing primarily with backup QB P.J. Walker, and even though his production (12-219-0 receiving) has been unexceptional, it’s encouraging that his usage has remained strong — and he could see even more targets now that the Browns have traded WR Donovan Peoples-Jones.

The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.1%).

Diontae Johnson (Steelers) vs. Titans

Steelers: -2.5
O/U: 37
TT: 19.75

Since returning from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for Weeks 3-6, Johnson has reclaimed his spot as the No. 1 WR in the Steelers offense with a 27% target rate, 31% target share, and 50% endzone target share to go along with his elite 92% route rate.

With that usage, he has put up 164 yards receiving on 13 receptions. (And, yes, no TDs. He’s still Diontae. But maybe one day?)

The Titans have struggled this year against smaller No. 1 WRs who play on the perimeter, such as Chris Olave (8-112-0 receiving, 10 targets) and Zay Flowers (6-50-1, eight targets).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) vs. Bears

Saints: -7.5
O/U: 41
TT: 24.25

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage.

He’s unpolished as a receiver, but his big-play ability is undoubted: Through eight games, he has 23-479-3 receiving on 38 targets with 6-33-0 rushing and a punt return TD.

He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Nos. 1-2 WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, he has scored a receiving TD in 25% of his games played — and in those games, he has averaged 95 yards receiving.

As Judah Fortgang and I discuss on this week’s “Bigger Picture” episode of the Betting Life Podcast, Shaheed is an upside single-game parlay superstar.

Demario Douglas (Patriots) vs. Commanders

Patriots: -3.5
O/U: 40.5
TT: 22

Douglas is a small Day 3 rookie slot man — so of course, he’s already the No. 1 pass catcher for the Patriots. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, Douglas has led all New England WRs with an 80% route rate and 20% target share over the past two games.

And he could see even more work this week with WR Kendrick Bourne (knee, IR) out and WR DeVante Parker (concussion) unlikely to play.

The Commanders are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (35.9 FPPG).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 TEs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) vs. Dolphins (in Germany)

Chiefs: -2.5
O/U: 50.5
TT: 26.5

Kelce will be on the negative side of his Taylor Swift splits (108 yards receiving per game with her in attendance, 50.3 without her) — this is very scientific and predictive, by the way — but I still expect him to ball out since, you know, he’s Travis Kelce: Last year, he led the position in yards per route (2.23) out of all guys not named “Chigoziem Okonkwo.”

Oct 22, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) celebrates with tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring a touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

There are no other TEs in the league like Kelce, but the two most comparable to him to face the Dolphins this year — Darren Waller (8-86-0 receiving, 11 targets) and Dallas Goedert (5-77-1, five targets — both had success.

And the Dolphins could be without FS Jevon Holland (concussion), who missed Week 8.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Bengals

Bills: +2.5
O/U: 48.5
TT: 23

Since returning in Week 7 from a concussion that sidelined him the prior week, Kincaid has 13-140-1 receiving on 15 targets, and I expect his usage to stick given that No. 2 TE Dawson Knox (wrist, IR) is out and No. 3 TE Quintin Morris (ankle) hasn’t played or practiced since Week 6.

Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.7 FPPG).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) at Eagles

Cowboys: +3
O/U: 46
TT: 21.5

Ferguson predictably disappointed in Week 6 (1-15-0 receiving, one target) in a matchup with Chargers SS Derwin James, but he bounced back out of the Week 7 bye with 4-47-1 receiving on four targets this past game.

Setting aside his unrepresentative Week 6 usage, Ferguson has averaged 5.3 targets per game this year, with six targets inside the 10-yard line and 11 in the red zone. That volume makes him viable.

The Eagles have been weak against TEs this year after losing LBs Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards, SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and FS Marcus Epps in the offseason, and even with the addition of SS Kevin Byard last week, they still allowed 6-44-1 receiving on eight targets to Logan Thomas.

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)