Freedman's Favorites. The Best Week 3 Fantasy Football Plays.

Think about some of the war movies you’ve seen.

Early on, the young, fresh-faced recruits are excited. They’re eager to fight and expect to win.

And then they get their first taste of battle — and everything changes.

They’re covered in mud and blood. In the aftermath, they walk around like dead-eyed zombies. They all realize that they can die — because some of them have already died.

And at that point, they learn a fundamental truth about themselves: Most of them care more about surviving the war than winning it.

That’s where we are in the fantasy season.

Week 1 was boot camp. Week 2 was the initial skirmish.

Week 3 is the beginning of the long road we all must march.

Along the way, there will be regular battles.

The priority on the road: Survive.

Make it to the end.

Get home.

Don’t think about the No. 1 seed. Don’t think about the championship game. Don’t think about the trophy, belt, plaque, ring, money, or bragging rights.

Focus only on what matters right now, in this moment.

Staying alive.

If you do that — well enough and long enough — you just might win the war.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 3

Here are my Week 3 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
Must be added if they are on waivers.
Possess underappreciated upside.
Have advantageous matchups.
Appear in my DFS player pool.
Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
Catch my eye with their player projections.
Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Wednesday morning but sometimes earlier), I won’t make any updates here. Instead, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 19, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Matchup Emphasis: Defensive data for Weeks 1-2 can be noisy, so for Week 3, I still tend to focus more on how a defense performed in 2022 than 2023. Starting in Week 4, though, I make a hard pivot to this year’s data. So, if you wonder why I’m referring to 2022 defensive numbers in this piece, that’s why: I don’t want to be overly reliant on just two weeks of information. That’s not to say I’m ignoring it, but I’m not privileging it.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 3 QBs

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Bears

Chiefs: -12.5
O/U: 47.5
Team Total (TT): 30

Mahomes has been relatively unimpressive through two weeks (6.5 AY/A, No. 16) — but he still has 20-plus fantasy points in both games, highlighting his incredibly high floor.

Since his first year as a starter (2018), Mahomes is No. 1 in FPPG (26.9), AY/A (8.6), and composite EPA + CPOE (0.174, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Last year, he led the league with 5,250 yards and 41 TDs passing — not to mention 123 red zone pass attempts — and he has lowkey rushing ability (20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years, 37.5 this year).

In 2022, the Chiefs were No. 1 in the league in dropback over expectation (9.04%), and this week, they have the highest implied team total on the slate (30 points).

Last year, the Bears were No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.212).

Justin Fields (Bears) at Chiefs

Bears: +12.5
O/U: 47.5
TT: 17.5

Fields has disappointed this year, both as a passer (5.0 AY/A) and as a runner (only five designed runs and eight scrambles, per our new Utilization Report).

But I don’t want to overreact to just two games of data: Last year, he was serviceable as a passer (6.6 AY/A) and electric as a runner (160-1,143-8 rushing, league-high 16% scramble rate), and he started to establish a connection with new No. 1 WR D.J. Moore last week.

Fields could dominate usage in the Bears offense as a heavy road underdog, and last year, the Chiefs were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.5 FPPG).

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Cardinals

Cowboys: -11.5
O/U: 43.5
TT: 27.5

Prescott is yet to flash as a fantasy producer this year — the Cowboys haven’t needed him to do much with back-to-back blowout victories — but he’s the starting QB on the league’s No. 1 scoring team (35 points per game), and he’s No. 1 with an 83.7 QBR (per ESPN).

The Cardinals were No. 31 last year in defensive dropback SR (51.2%), and last week, they let Giants QB Daniel Jones finish as the No. 1 QB with 31.7 fantasy points.

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Falcons

Lions: -3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 25

Goff is a nonentity as a runner, but since last season, he has compensated for it as a passer with efficiency (8.1 AY/A) and volume (34.6 attempts per game).

While I view Goff as a talent-limited player, OC Ben Johnson does an excellent job maximizing his potential through intelligent play design and sequencing: Last year, Goff had a league-high 1,445 yards passing on play action.

In 2022, the Falcons were No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (23.5%, per FTN).

C.J. Stroud (Texans) at Jaguars

Texans: +9.5
O/U: 44
TT: 17.25

Stroud has looked like a rookie (NFL-high 11 sacks), but last week, he flashed with 384 yards and two TDs passing (to zero INTs) while playing behind an offensive line missing four starters.

Texans

Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) celebrates with Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) after a touchdown Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, during a game against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium in Houston

And it’s not as if this production is out of nowhere: The No. 2 pick, he dominated at Ohio State as a sophomore and junior with 8,123 yards and 85 TDs passing (to 12 INTs) on a 69.3% completion rate and 11.2 AY/A.

Stroud offers little on the ground (7-21-0 rushing), but he has a good matchup, as the Jaguars were No. 29 last year in defensive pass DVOA (17.8%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 3 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Giants

49ers: -10
O/U: 44
TT: 27

In his 16 games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has 1,813 yards and 15 TDs on 241 carries and 87 targets (including playoffs). That seems good.

His usage this year has been exceptional: Through two weeks, he has 100% of the snaps for short down and distance, long down and distance, and two minutes.

He could see extended run as a big home favorite — he leads the league with 42 carries and 268 yards rushing through two weeks — and the Giants were No. 32 last year in defensive rush DVOA (10.5%).

I now have a bet on McCaffrey to win MVP at +8000 (PointsBet) in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Derrick Henry (Titans) at Browns

Titans: +3
O/U: 39.5
TT: 18.25

Henry has ceded 17 opportunities (11 carries, six targets) to rookie RB Tyjae Spears, but he has still put up 213 yards and a TD on 40 carries and seven targets. Since his earth-shaking Week 14 breakout in 2018, he has averaged 126.8 yards and 1.0 TDs on 22.6 carries and 2.1 targets across 61 games.

Last year, Henry led the league with 35 broken tackles forced, and he was No. 2 with 75% of his team’s carries inside the 20-yard line. And, amazingly, he was also No. 2 with 2.06 yards per route.

The Browns were No. 32 last year in defensive rush EPA (0.045), and under HC Mike Vrabel, the Titans as underdogs are 27-17-1 ATS (17.7% ROI) and 23-22 ML (49.7% ROI, per Action Network).

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) at Lions

Falcons: +3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 21.5

Through two weeks, Robinson has been compelled to split work (92 snaps, 29 carries, 11 targets) with No. 2 RB Tyler Allgeier (65 snaps, 31 carries, three targets), but he has still impressed with 255 yards and one TD from scrimmage.

Plus, he has seen heavy snap rates on short down and distance (95%), long down and distance (83%), and two minutes (100%).

He’s a +180 favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year (BetMGM), and the Lions were No. 29 last year in defensive rush SR (44.8%).

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Travis Etienne (Jaguars) vs. Texans

Jaguars: -9.5
O/U: 44
TT: 26.75

Etienne got all but two of the backfield opportunities in Week 2, and he could see an expanded workload as a home favorite against the Texans, who were No. 1 last year in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.9 FPPG).

In two games against the Texans last year, Etienne accumulated 254 yards and a TD on 19 carries and eight targets, and for the season, he piled up 1,441 scrimmage yards and ranked No. 3 in rushing yards over expected (+1.08, per Next Gen Stats).

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Falcons

Lions: -3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 25

No. 1 RB David Montgomery (thigh) exited Week 2 with an injury and seems likely to miss Week 3. While Gibbs will split time with No. 3 RB Craig Reynolds, he should maintain his receiving workload and might inherit some of Montgomery’s rushing opportunities. He has moved into the high-end RB2 conversation.

A 21-year-old rookie with great explosiveness (4.36-second 40-yard dash), Gibbs had a balanced seven carries and nine targets last week, and last year at Alabama, he put up 1,370 yards and 10 TDs from scrimmage.

The Falcons were No. 32 last year in defensive rush SR (46.6%).

Check out my Week 3 injury report for more information on the guys I’m monitoring.

Miles Sanders (Panthers) at Seahawks

Panthers: +5.5
O/U: 42
TT: 18.25

Sanders has been pedestrian to start the season (145 scoreless yards), but it’s hard to be picky when a back has 32 carries and 11 targets in two games.

Before joining the Panthers this offseason, Sanders racked up 4,650 yards in four years with the Eagles: He can produce.

The Seahawks last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (20.3 FPPG), and this offseason, they lost almost the entirety of their interior defensive line with the departures of DTs Poona Ford, Quinton Jefferson, Shelby Harris, and Al Woods.

Alexander Mattison (Vikings) vs. Chargers

Vikings: Pick’Em
O/U: 54
TT: 27

I wish I were joking. Mattison has underwhelmed this season (83 yards, one TD). But he has 29 of the team’s 36 backfield opportunities (19 carries, 10 targets), and he leads the Vikings with four opportunities (two carries, two targets) inside the 10-yard line. For better or worse — probably worse — he looks like the guy.

LT Christian Darrisaw (ankle) seems likely to return to action given that he was active in Week 2 (albeit as a reserve), and the Vikings have a three-day rest advantage coming off Thursday Night Football.

Last year, the Chargers were No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (8.6%) and are playing their second game in a row on the road.

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. Bears

Chiefs: -12.5
O/U: 47.5
Team Total: 30

Pacheco is yet to engender real excitement this year with 124 scoreless scrimmage yards, but he has 12-plus opportunities in both games and has averaged an efficient 4.9 yards per carry and 8.1 yards per target for his career.

Sep 7, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) warms up against the Detroit Lions prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

He could approach 20 touches with multiple goal-line opportunities as a double-digit home favorite against the Bears, who were No. 28 last year in defensive rush EPA (0.022).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 3 WRs

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Cardinals

Cowboys: -11.5
O/U: 43.5
TT: 27.5

Lamb has three consecutive seasons with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards — he has 29-205-1 rushing for his career — and this year, he’s pacing for his best performance yet with 15-220-0 receiving on 17 targets in two games.

I doubt that No. 2 WR Brandin Cooks (knee) will return to action this week, and Lamb saw 13 targets in his absence last week.

Playing primarily in the slot, Lamb will run most of his routes against FS Jalen Thompson, who has been forced into a full-time nickel role due to the Cardinals’ lack of secondary depth. Thompson is fine as a safety but likely outmatched as a corner.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs. Falcons

Lions: -3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 25

St. Brown has 148-1,799-12 receiving on 213 targets and 16-156-1 rushing in 21 games since his Week 13 breakout in 2021 (minus three consecutive injury-impacted games in 2022).

He had 6-71-1 receiving on nine targets in Week 1 and could’ve had a bigger day than his 6-102-0 (seven targets) last week if not for cramps, which sidelined him for part of the game.

The Falcons last year were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.2 FPPG) and could be without CB Jeff Okudah (foot), who is yet to play this season.

Keenan Allen (Chargers) at Vikings

Chargers: Pick’Em
O/U: 54
TT: 27

Allen entered the season with 9.8 targets per game over the past three years, and then in Weeks 1-2, he was his typical self with 14-187-2 receiving on 19 targets, adding 2-6-0 rushing.

With RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) uncertain to play, the Chargers might have more of a pass-leaning game plan, and some of Ekeler’s short targets could be reallocated to the slot-heavy Allen.

The Vikings were No. 30 last year in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (19.6%), and they’re playing backup FS Josh Metellus at nickel out of necessity. Metellus has just five starts and 247 coverage snaps in the NFL. Best of luck to him.

DK Metcalf (Seahawks) vs. Panthers

Seahawks: -5.5
O/U: 42
TT: 23.75

Metcalf is an alpha beast with Calvin Johnson-like athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-3 and 228 lbs.) and 306-4,218-35 receiving in his first four seasons with the Seahawks.

For the season, he has 9-122-1 receiving (11.1 yards per target), and last year, he was No. 1 in the league with a 40% red zone target share.

The Panthers in 2022 were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (24.1 FPPG) and are without No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR)

Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Rams

Bengals: -2
O/U: 43.5
TT: 22.75

Higgins has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons despite playing alongside a target hog in No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase, and he bounced back from an embarrassing 0-0-0 receiving line in Week 1 with an emphatic 8-89-2 performance in Week 2.

With a team-high 20 targets and a league-high 55% market share of air yards, Higgins still carries significant upside even if the Bengals find themselves without QB Joe Burrow (calf) this week.

The Rams were No. 29 last year in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (18.8%).

Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs. Bills

Commanders: +6.5
O/U: 44
TT: 18.75

McLaurin’s production has been unremarkable this year (7-85-1 receiving on 10 targets), but in his four previous seasons, he had 4,281 yards receiving and 9.0 yards per target: He’s a bonafide No. 1 WR.

As a home underdog and without TE Logan Thomas (concussion), he could see some extra opportunities this week.

The Bills were No. 29 last year in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (18.9%).

George Pickens (Steelers) at Raiders

Steelers: +2.5
O/U: 43
TT: 20.25

Pickens flashed last year as a 21-year-old rookie with 52-801-4 receiving (9.5 yards per target) and 3-24-1 rushing, and then last week — without No. 1 WR Diontae Johnson (hamstring, IR) — he had a career-high 10 targets, which he leveraged into 4-127-1 receiving.

The Raiders were No. 31 last year in defensive dropback EPA (0.150), and Pickens could benefit from a pass-leaning game script as an underdog.

The Steelers are 54-31-4 ATS (23.5% ROI) and 44-45 ML (25.8% ROI) as underdogs under HC Mike Tomlin.

D.J. Moore (Bears) at Chiefs

Bears: +12.5
O/U: 47.5
TT: 17.5

Moore is likely to be inconsistent in his first season with the Bears. Still, he was productive (5,201 yards receiving, 335 yards rushing) and efficient (8.4 yards per target, 8.6 yards per carry) with the Panthers for the first half-decade of his career despite dealing with subpar QB play.

After an abominable Week 1 (2-25-0 receiving, two targets), Moore got back on track last week (6-104-0 receiving, seven targets).

The Chiefs were No. 1 last year in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (26.1 FPPG).

Amari Cooper (Browns) vs. Titans

Browns: -3
O/U: 39.5
TT: 21.25

The Browns might lean more into the aerial attack without No. 1 RB Nick Chubb (knee, IR), especially since the Titans have a pass-friendly funnel defense that last year was No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.114).

Nov 27, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper (2) makes a first down reception against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during overtime at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Cooper put up 78-1,160-9 receiving in his first season with the team in 2022, and through two weeks, he leads the Browns with 17 targets, 10 receptions, and 127 yards receiving.

Nico Collins (Texans) at Jaguars

Texans: +9.5
O/U: 44
TT: 17.25

Collins intrigued as the No. 2 WR in 2021-22 (70-927-3 receiving), and with the offseason trade of former teammate Brandin Cooks, he has looked like a true No. 1 WR in his third year, leading the team with 13-226-1 receiving and 20 targets through two weeks.

The Jaguars were No. 28 last year in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (16.2%).

Drake London (Falcons) at Lions

Falcons: +3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 21.5

London had fewer receptions (zero) than QB Desmond Ridder in Week 1 (one), but he got back on track last week (6-67-1 receiving, seven targets). He was respectable last year as a rookie with 72-866-4 receiving on 117 targets, finishing the season as the No. 14 WR with 2.07 yards per route.

The Lions were No. 30 last year in defensive dropback EPA (0.125).

Tutu Atwell (Rams) at Bengals

Rams: +2
O/U: 43.5
TT: 20.75

Rookie WR Puka Nacua is getting lots of attention — and rightly so! — but we shouldn’t overlook what Atwell has done through two weeks with 13-196-0 receiving on 17 targets. Nearly an every-down player, Atwell is the No. 4 WR with 139 snaps this year.

As long as QB Matthew Stafford is playing at his current level and WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR) is out, Atwell seems likely to remain a productive player as the complementary option to Nacua.

The Bengals were No. 31 last year in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (28.3%).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Packers

Saints: +2
O/U: 43
TT: 20.5

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage.

He’s unpolished as a receiver and bound to regress, but his big-play ability is undoubted: Last year, he was No. 2 with a 138.4 QB rating when targeted, and in Weeks 1-2, he broke loose with 9-152-1 receiving on 10 targets and added 2-11-0 rushing.

He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Nos. 1-2 WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas.

Jayden Reed (Packers) vs. Saints

Packers: -2
O/U: 43
TT: 22.5

No. 1 WR Christian Watson (hamstring) sat out each of the first two weeks, and in his absence, Reed has led the Packers with 13 targets and six receptions, which he has turned into 85 yards and two TDs.

A second-round rookie, Reed led Western Michigan with 56-797-8 receiving as an 18-year-old true freshman before transferring to Michigan State, where he had 1,000-plus yards receiving and 13 all-purpose touchdowns as a junior: He has legitimate talent and inside/outside versatility.

Playing heavily in three-WR sets and in the slot, Reed — despite his production — is positioned as more of a No. 3 WR than a lead receiver in the offense, and the Saints were No. 29 last year in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary WRs (26.2%).

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) vs. Cowboys

Cardinals: +11.5
O/U: 43.5
TT: 16

The Cardinals are significant home underdogs who might be forced into a pass-heavy game script, and Brown is No. 1 on the team with 82 yards and a TD receiving on 15 targets.

Brown is unlikely to have a big game, but he’s the kind of speedy receiver who could give No. 1 CB Trevon Diggs trouble on double moves, and the Cowboys last year were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (24.6 FPPG).

Jonathan Mingo (Panthers) at Seahawks

Panthers: +5.5
O/U: 42
TT: 18.25

When you look at Mingo, you might see a rookie with 3.3 yards per target who was never the No. 1 receiver on his college team.

I, too, see a guy who probably sucks — but I also see that he’s No. 1 on the Panthers in route rate (95%), target rate (17%), target share (22%), air yard share (45%), and third- and fourth-down target share (35%).

The Seahawks could be without CB Riq Woolen (shoulder) and SS Jamal Adams (quad) in the secondary.

Justin Watson (Chiefs) vs. Bears

Chiefs: -12.5
O/U: 47.5
Team Total: 30

Of the Chiefs WRs who play most in three-wide sets, Watson this year has run the fewest routes (42) — but he has the most targets (nine), receptions (five), yards receiving (107), and air yards (222).

Since joining the Chiefs last year, Watson has been an efficient pass catcher (9.8 yards per target), and this year especially, he has been a downfield threat (24.9-yard aDOT).

He’s likely to pop off for a big game if his usage holds, and the Bears were No. 32 last year in defensive dropback SR (51.7%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 3 TEs

Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Colts

Ravens: -8
O/U: 45
TT: 26.5

Andrews has been the No. 1 pass catcher in the Ravens' offense since his 2019 second-season breakout (last year, he was the No. 1 TE with a 23% target share), and in his 2023 debut last week, he led the team with eight targets, which he turned into 5-45-1 receiving: New offense, same Andrews.

Jan 1, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) reacts after making a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts were No. 28 last year in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (17.9%).

Evan Engram (Jaguars) vs. Texans

Jaguars: -9.5
O/U: 44
TT: 26.75

The Texans could be without SS Jimmie Ward (hip), who missed Weeks 1-2, FS Jalen Pitre (chest), who missed Week 2, and No. 3 S Eric Murray (concussion), who exited Week 2 early.

Engram was the No. 3 pass catcher for the Jaguars last year with 73-766-4 receiving on 98 targets, and he’s once again the No. 3 option this year with 11-106-0 on 13 targets.

Sam LaPorta (Lions) vs. Falcons

Lions: -3.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 25

LaPorta dominated at Iowa as the No. 1 receiver (111-1,327-4 receiving in 2021-22), got second-round draft capital in April, and then had 10-102-0 receiving on 11 targets in Weeks 1-2.

The Falcons last year were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.1 FPPG).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) at Cardinals

Cowboys: -11.5
O/U: 43.5
TT: 27.5

Ferguson has disappointed this year with just 5-22-1 receiving on 11 targets — but he leads the entire NFL with five targets inside the 10-yard line, and he barely missed out on a second TD last week.

The Cardinals could be without SS Budda Baker (hamstring), who missed Week 2 with a soft-tissue injury that popped up on Friday.

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) vs. Cowboys

Cardinals: +11.5
O/U: 43.5
TT: 16

Ertz is No. 1 on the Cardinals with 18 targets and 12 receptions, and the Cowboys could be without S Donovan Smith (calf), who is yet to play this season.

I hate myself for even suggesting him — but his target volume can’t be ignored.

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)