Freedman's Favorites. The Best Week 5 Fantasy Football Plays.

Week 5: We’re now closer to the middle of the fantasy campaign than the beginning.

The season’s no longer new.

In fact, it’s starting to feel…old?

Maybe we’re not at that point yet.

But gone are the naïve halcyon days of “I love this player’s upside.” We’re now firmly in the autumn realm of “Can someone -- anyone -- just give me five points?”

Fantasy life comes at you fast, especially during the bye weeks.

My friend, if the fantasy gods be merciful and this article be helpful -- we’ll get you those five fantasy points.

Maybe.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 5

Here are my preliminary Week 5 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
Must be added if they are on waivers.
Possess under-appreciated upside.
Have advantageous matchups.
Appear in my DFS player pool.
Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
Catch my eye with their player projections.
Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Sep. 26, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Bye Week: The Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers are off this week.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 5 QBs

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Vikings

Chiefs: -5
O/U: 53.5
TT: 29.25

Mahomes hasn’t been his usual spectacular self a month into the season, but since his first year as a starter (2018) he is No. 1 in FPPG (26.7) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.175, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Last year he led the league with 5,250 yards and 41 TDs passing -- not to mention 123 redzone pass attempts -- and he has lowkey rushing ability (20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years, 38.5 this year).

In 2022 the Chiefs were No. 1 in the league in dropback over expectation (9.04%), and this week they get an aggressively exploitable Vikings defense that is No. 2 in blitz rate (47.5%) but just No. 26 in pressure rate (15.8%).

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) vs. Giants

Dolphins: -10.5
O/U: 49.5
TT: 30

Last year, Tagovailoa was No. 1 in AY/A (9.2) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148). This year, he’s No. 2 in both (9.9, 0.212).

Maybe the guy who…

Went to college as the No. 1 dual-threat recruit in his high school class…
Came off the bench as a true freshman in the National Championship to lead Alabama to a comeback win against Georgia…
Finished No. 2 in Heisman voting as a sophomore with an efficient 3,966 yards and 43 TDs passing to just six INTs…
Entered his final undergraduate season as the presumed No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft before suffering a career-threatening injury…
Weathered reasonably well two years of offensive playcalling incompetence before finally getting a creative schemer capable of maximizing his abilities…

…maybe that guy is actually good at football, you know?

This week the Dolphins have the league’s highest implied team total (30 points), and the Giants are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.219).

In my offseason Dolphins betting preview, I highlighted Tagovailoa as MVP at +2200 (Caesars), and I have that bet logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. Even with his Week 4 loss, he’s currently +500 across the market. We’ll see.

You can target Tua this week in Pick'em contests on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE below!

Anthony Richardson (Colts) vs. Titans

Colts: Pick’Em
O/U: 42.5
TT: 21.25

Richardson has had a truncated introduction to the NFL thanks to a concussion that forced him from Week 2 and sidelined him for Week 3, but in Week 1 he flashed with 21.9 fantasy points, and in Week 4 he had 200 yards and two TDs passing and 10-56-1 rushing.

The Titans are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (50.6%) and No. 4 in allowed AY/A (8.2).

Sam Howell (Commanders) vs. Bears

Commanders: -5.5
O/U: 44
TT: 24.75

Last year, Howell was No. 1 in the league with 0.77 fantasy points per dropback (albeit in just one game, a Week 18 start).

This year he hasn’t been nearly as good -- he has a league-high 24 sacks, and he threw four INTs against the Bills in Week 3 -- but he has been serviceable.

Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) throws pass under pressure from Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick (7) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

In each of his softer matchups in Weeks 1-2 & 4, he put up borderline QB1 numbers with 16.2 fantasy points (No. 11) against the Cardinals, 21.3 points (No. 14) against the Broncos, and 19.6 points (No. 13) against the Eagles.

For the season, he has a respectable 67.1% completion rate and 11-82-1 rushing, and he has a soft matchup this week against the Bears, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.6 FPPG).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 5 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Cowboys

49ers: -3.5
O/U: 45
TT: 24.25

In his 18 games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has 2,109 yards and 20 TDs on 279 carries and 100 targets (including playoffs). That seems good.

His usage this year has been exceptional: Through four weeks, he has 91% of the snaps for short down and distance, 94% long down and distance, and 100% two minutes, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report.

McCaffrey leads the league with 600 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage, and he could be without No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee), who missed Week 4.

He could also benefit from a run-leaning game script as a home favorite against the Cowboys, who are No. 27 in defensive rush SR (45.1%).

I have a +8000 ticket (acquired after Week 2) on McCaffrey to win MVP: I fully expect to lose the bet, but if a non-QB producer wins the award it will likely be him. He leads the entire league in fantasy scoring (27.8 FPPG).

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs. Texans

Falcons: -2
O/U: 41.5
TT: 21.75

The Falcons have disappointed with just 13 points over their past two games, and they could suffer this week as they return from London, but Robinson still had 197 yards on 24 carries and 11 targets in Weeks 3-4, and for the season he has 452 yards and one TD in four games.

This is a decent bounce-back spot for the Falcons at home, where they’re favored against the Texans, who are No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (4.8%, per FTN).

Over the past couple of games in particular he has markedly pulled away from No. 2 RB Tyler Allgeier. In Weeks 3-4, Robinson saw heavy snap rates on short down and distance (75%),, long down and distance (92%), and two minutes (100%).

Robinson’s No. 2 in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds at +450 (DraftKings), behind only QB C.J. Stroud (+200, Caesars).

Saquon Barkley (Giants) at Dolphins

Giants: +10.5
O/U: 49.5
TT: 19.5

Barkley was circumstantially terrible in Week 1 (63 scoreless yards on 12 carries and four targets), but he had a big performance in Week 2 (92 yards, two TDs) before missing Weeks 3-4.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Sept. 17, 2023.

Last year he had a position-high 856 snaps (despite sitting out Week 18), and in Week 2 he had a 97% snap rate: If active, he will be heavily involved in the offense. Given that he got in limited practices every day last week, I tentatively expect Barkley (ankle) to return to action this week.

The Dolphins are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (0.039) and SR (47.6%), and the Giants as road underdogs with QB Daniel Jones are 17-7 ATS (36.9% ROI, per Action Network).

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) at Rams

Eagles: -4.5
O/U: 51
TT: 27.75

Swift challenged my will to live in Week 1 (three yards, two targets, one carry), but in Week 2 he dominated (181 yards, a TD on 28 carries, three targets) without injured RB Kenneth Gainwell, and even with Gainwell’s return Swift smashed (30-186-1 rushing and 5-31-0 receiving on six targets) in Weeks 3-4.

He could see extra work as a home favorite, and the Rams are No. 24 in defensive rush DVOA (-0.6%). It’s officially Swift SZN.

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Panthers

Lions: -9
O/U: 45
TT: 27

Montgomery exited Week 2 early with a thigh injury and missed Week 3, but in Weeks 1 & 4 he had a dominant 215 yards and four TDs on 53 carries and two targets. For the season, he leads the league with 12 broken tackles forced.

With 1,000-plus yards and 25-plus receptions in each of his four full NFL seasons (2019-22 Bears), Montgomery has a three-down skill set.

He should get as much work as he can handle as a big home favorite against the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.115) and DVOA (20.8%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (ankle, IR).

Joe Mixon (Bengals) at Cardinals

Bengals: -3
O/U: 44.5
TT: 23.75

It might be easy to look at Mixon and see a guy with fine but unremarkable numbers (4.2 yards per carry, 5.2 yards per target) in an offense that is struggling mightily.

I see a guy who has 15-plus touches in every game this year and who could be relied on heavily given that QB Joe Burrow (calf) is limited and WR Tee Higgins (ribs) is likely to sit. It doesn’t hurt that he’s the only RB in the league with 100% of his team’s redzone carries.

The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (50.0%).

Brian Robinson (Commanders) vs. Bears

Commanders: -5.5
O/U: 44
TT: 24.75

Robinson isn’t an exciting player, and his between-the-tackles skill set makes him vulnerable to unfriendly game states: In a 37-3 Week 3 loss to the Bills, he had a snap rate of just 37% and saw only 10 carries and no targets.

But in Weeks 1-2 & 4 -- all games decided by no more than four points -- Robinson had 14-19 carries, 2-3 targets, and a touchdown in every contest.

He should be able to stay involved throughout the game as a home favorite against the Bears, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.2 FPPG).

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Giants

Dolphins: -10.5
O/U: 49.5
TT: 30

In Weeks 3-4, when Achane saw his first extended NFL action, the rookie looked like the second coming of Chris Johnson with 26-304-4 rushing and 7-49-2 receiving on nine targets. His talent is legit.

He has the upside to go off for his third consecutive 100-yard game as a big home favorite against the Giants, who are No. 24 in defensive rush EPA (-0.021).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 5 WRs

Davante Adams (Raiders) vs. Packers

Raiders: +2
O/U: 44.5
TT: 21.25

“How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!” Adams…in a #RevengeGame against the Packers.

I expect QB Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) to return to action, which should help out Adams, who has 133-1,913-17 receiving on 230 targets in 21 games since joining the Raiders last year.

This year, he’s the No. 1 WR with 569 air yards, and last week he wasn’t credited with a TD he scored. Sheesh.

The Packers could be without No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (back), who has missed the past two games.

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) at Cardinals

Bengals: -3
O/U: 44.5
TT: 23.75

Chase, along with the entire Bengals offense, disappointed in Weeks 1-2 (10-70-0 receiving on 17 targets, 1-2-0 rushing), but he looked sufficiently studly in Weeks 3-4 (19-214-0 receiving on 24 targets).

With 2,501 yards and 22 TDs receiving across his first two seasons, the third-year Chase is still very much one of the league’s best receivers, and he could see extra volume without No. 2 WR Tee Higgins (rib), who seems unlikely to play.

The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (50.9%) and pass DVOA (31.4%).

Cooper Kupp (Rams) vs. Eagles

Rams: +4.5
O/U: 51
TT: 23.25

Kupp (hamstring, IR) missed Weeks 1-4 because of a soft-tissue injury, but he is slated to return to practice this week and could be activated in time for Sunday.

Despite missing the second half of last season with a high ankle sprain, he has an absurd 253-3,237-28 receiving with 9.8 yards per target since 2021 (30 games, including playoffs).

With slot CB Avonte Maddox (pectoral, IR), the Eagles have shifted career-long perimeter CB James Bradberry inside, where he’ll be out of position against Kupp. While Bradberry is a good player -- he was second-team All-Pro last year -- I doubt he has the shiftiness to stick with Kupp in the slot.

Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Eagles

Rams: +4.5
O/U: 51
TT: 23.25

Even with the impending return of Kupp, I think there’s still room for Nacua in the WR1 ranks, given the connection he has established with QB Matthew Stafford and how dominant the Rams offense has been (0.067, No. 8 in offensive EPA).

Despite being just a rookie, Nacua leads the league with 52 targets and 39 receptions, which he has leveraged into 501 yards receiving and a TD.

Eagles are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (37.1 FPPG).

Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Rams

Colts: Pick’Em
O/U: 42.5
TT: 21.25

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons -- he was the No. 1 WR with a 99% route rate last year -- and this year in four games he has 39 targets, which he has leveraged into 26-245-1 receiving.

Titans are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (68.8%).

Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs. Bears

Commanders: -5.5
O/U: 44
TT: 24.75

McLaurin’s production has been unremarkable this year (21-212-2 receiving on 26 targets), but in his four previous seasons he had 4,281 yards receiving and 9.0 yards per target: He’s a bona fide No. 1 WR.

And he’s trending in the right direction: Last week he had a season-high 10 targets, and he leads the Commanders with an 18% target rate and 27% share of air yards.

The Bears are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.418) and pass DVOA (47.1%).

Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Steelers

Ravens: -3.5
O/U: 37.5
TT: 20.5

Flowers has respectable numbers with 24-244-0 receiving on 28 targets and 5-11-0 rushing in his first four NFL games, and he could see heavy usage if WRs Rashod Bateman (hamstring) and Odell Beckham (ankle) once again are out.

The Steelers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (39.0 FPPG).

Garrett Wilson (Jets) at Broncos

Jets: +1.5
O/U: 43
TT: 20.75

Wilson’s raw numbers might not impress (21-225-2 receiving, 36 targets), but his utilization within the Jets offense is elite (99% route rate, 24% target rate, 31% target share, 39% air share, 40% of endzone targets, and league-high 60% of redzone targets).

The Broncos are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.450) and SR (56.1%) and pass DVOA (63.7%).

Christian Watson (Packers) at Raiders

Packers: -2
O/U: 44.5
TT: 23.25

Watson missed Weeks 1-3 with a hamstring injury and did little in Week 4 as he was eased back into action (46% snap rate, four targets, 2-25-1 receiving), but he should be more involved this week with four extra days to rest and prepare coming off Thursday Night Football.

Jan 8, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) rushes with the football during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

He had an ignominious NFL debut last year when he dropped what would’ve been a 75-yard TD on the team’s first offensive snap, and he paid the price for it with just 13 more targets for the next two months, but for the final eight weeks of the season he emerged as a big-time playmaker with 31-523-7 receiving (10.1 yards per target) and 4-61-1 rushing.

The Raiders are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (41.3%).

Jahan Dotson (Commanders) vs. Bears

Commanders: -5.5
O/U: 44
TT: 24.75

Dotson’s numbers have been terrible this year. He hasn’t had more than 40 yards in a game. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per target. This is gnarly stuff.

But he impressed last year as a rookie with 35-523-7 receiving (8.6 yards per target) despite missing five games and dealing with a hamstring injury throughout the season, and this year he leads the Commanders with an 88% route rate and 21% target share on third and fourth downs.

The Bears are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (50.3%) and could be without No. 1 CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring), slot CBs Kyler Gordon (hand, IR) and Josh Blackwell (hamstring, IR), and FS Eddie Jackson (foot).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Patriots

Saints: +1.5
O/U: 40
TT: 19.25

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage.

He’s unpolished as a receiver, but his big-play ability is undoubted: In Weeks 1-4 he broke loose with 12-185-1 receiving on 19 targets with 3-11-0 rushing and a punt return TD.

He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Nos. 1-2 WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, and he might get extra targets if TE Juwan Johnson (calf) is out. If he’s available, add Shaheed from waivers.

The Patriots are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 3 WRs (36.6%) and dealing with injuries to CBs Christian Gonzalez (shoulder), Jonathan Jones (ankle), Jack Jones (hamstring, IR), and Marcus Jones (shoulder, IR).

Darius Slayton (Giants) at Dolphins

Giants: +10.5
O/U: 49.5
TT: 19.5

Slayton’s 2023 production is flaccidly uninspiring (11-132-0 receiving, 20 targets), but he’s No. 1 on the team with an 81% route rate and 33% air share.

The Giants could have a pass-heavy game script as large road underdogs, and the Dolphins are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (53.6%).

Marvin Mims (Broncos) vs. Jets

Broncos: -1.5
O/U: 43
TT: 22.25

Despite playing just 65 snaps this year as the team’s No. 5 WR, Mims is No. 1 on the team with 242 yards receiving on 11 targets and nine receptions, to which he has added 3-13-0 rushing and a kick return TD.

At some point, he’ll get more playing time, and that could happen this week against the Jets, who are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.187).

Justin Watson (Chiefs) at Vikings

Chiefs: -5
O/U: 53.5
TT: 29.25

I’m going to keep banging on this drum: Watson is the team’s No. 3 WR in terms of route rate (51%), target rate (15%), and target share (9%) -- but he’s No. 1 on the team in yards receiving (163) and air yards (285).

Since joining the Chiefs last year, Watson has been an efficient pass catcher (10.2 yards per target), and this year especially he has been a downfield threat (21.2-yard aDOT).

The Vikings are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (40.1 FPPG).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 5 TEs

Dallas Goedert (Eagles) at Rams

Eagles: -4.5
O/U: 51
TT: 27.75

Goedert has unspeakably underwhelmed this year with just 13-88-0 receiving on 19 targets. That’s 4.8 targets per game and 4.6 yards per target. Terrible.

But there’s hope. He has an elite 95.2% snap rate this year and position-high 92% route rate. At some point, targets will find him, and his efficiency will improve. In his first two seasons under HC Nick Sirianni (2021-22), Goedert averaged 5.4 targets per game and 10.6 yards per target, and last year he was the No. 1 TE with an 88% route rate.

The Rams are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (33.6%).

Tyler Higbee (Rams) vs. Eagles

Rams: +4.5
O/U: 51
TT: 23.25

It’s hard to anticipate how much usage Higbee might get with the possible return of WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR), but he’s the No. 4 TE with 196 yards receiving on 26 targets and 16 receptions. In the barren wasteland that’s the TE position, that’s potable liquid.

Sep 10, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee (89) catches a pass over Seattle Seahawks safety Julian Love (20) during the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2 FPPG) and could be without safeties Justin Evans (neck) and Sydney Brown (hamstring).

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) vs. Bengals

Cardinals: +3
O/U: 44.5
TT: 20.75

Ertz is No. 2 on the Cardinals and at the position with 30 targets. What he has done with that volume is relatively unimpressive (20-136-0 receiving).

With 4.5 yards per target, he’s essentially a catch-and-fall specialist --but his target volume can’t be ignored.

Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (52.3%).

Tyler Conklin (Jets) at Broncos

Jets: +1.5
O/U: 43
TT: 20.75

Set aside Week 1, when the Jets’ plans were annihilated with the season-ending injury to QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles, IR). In Weeks 2-4, Conklin had 12-134-0 receiving on 17 targets with five-plus targets in each game. Given the state of the TE position, that kind of usage makes him viable.

The Broncos are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.8 FPPG) and are without SS Caden Sterns (knee, IR) -- and FS Justin Simmons (hip) has missed the past two games.