How to Fix the Lions

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing, more points and more wins!!!

Team Summary

Honestly, I initially shrugged at the idea of trying to fix the Lions. “Restore the Roar” isn’t just a catchphrase anymore. It’s a promise the team upheld over the 2022 season. They charged past their projected 6.5-win total and found themselves in the playoff hunt late in the season. They played spoiler by keeping their division rival out of contention for a championship, but it was hard to see this ending back in September.

The Lions entered their Week 6 bye with just one win. Even worse, New England’s defense pitched a shutout with Bailey Zappe under center. And then, a few weeks later, GM Brad Holmes sent T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings. They were losing offensive talent and games. But their underlying metrics were encouraging.

Jan 1, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams (30) celebrates his touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Through Week 8, Detroit was 11th in offensive DVOA. Four of their six losses featured single-digit point differentials, and Jared Goff was hovering around the league average in PFF’s passing grade (18th). With rumors about Dan Campbell on the “hot seat,” the team thought they needed a miracle to get back on track. And all they needed was help from (the Sun) God.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s sophomore jump propelled the offense into contention within the NFC North. Goff ranked first in EPA per play from Week 9 to the end of the regular season. Between St. Brown amassing the most first downs of any pass catcher (51) and Jamaal Williams hip-thrusting his way into the record books, Detroit found themselves third in yards per drive. Let’s get the Lions into the playoffs next year though.

They’re 11th in cap space and have five picks in the first three rounds. Jameson Williams appears as advertised, and a couple more personnel additions and adjustments to their playcalling make Geoff’s recommendation for placing a futures bet on the Lions’ SB odds all the more practical. But first, let’s talk about their ground game.

Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

A “Swift-ier” Running Game

It’s not like Detroit didn’t want to lean on their running game. They were 21st in early-down passing rate with a one-score point differential and racked up the 13th-most rushing attempts during the regular season. But the Lions were 22nd in rushing EPA on first and second down attempts. And as a result, they were tied for the 12th-most yards to go on third down (7.0). Fantasy managers have been clamoring for D’Andre Swift to take over the backfield, and a shift in their approach may do the trick.

At UGA, Swift could operate within zone or gap-based blocking schemes, posting identical success rates between the two in his sophomore campaign. However, Detroit opted to focus on the former rather than a blend of the two.

Williams versus Swift in different blocking schemes

Assistant head coach Duce Staley used much of what made him successful in Philadelphia to ignite the Lions’ rushing attack. Williams and Swift ran most of their plays with zone-blocking concepts. But something was off, as Swift ceded work to Williams and Justin Jackson. And after diving into their efficiency numbers, it’s easy to see why.

Williams versus Swift in EPA per attempt

At least Jamaal could grind out the extra yards to keep the chains moving. He generated the fourth-most first downs of any running back. But both Williams and Swift were inefficient on their zone carries. It wasn’t until nearly Thanksgiving when their use of backside pullers began to complement their passing game. And even if Williams returns in free agency, the recent coaching turnover works for both of them.

Staley’s down in Charlotte, and the Lions brought Scottie Montgomery in to take his place, with Ben Johnson moving into the OC position. Montgomery oversaw Jonathan Taylor’s development in Indianapolis and was the WR’s coach at multiple stops. His background uniquely fits Swift’s playstyle and potential as a runner and receiver. With the offseason to connect, Detroit will have a more balanced attack in 2023.

Boost Their Dropback Passing Game

At first glance, some would say they already did. I mentioned Jameson Williams, and from Week 8 to the end of the regular season, Swift ranked fifth among all RBs in YPRR. There’s not much more to add. But more intermediate chain movers would lift the floor of the offense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was the engine of the offense. He led the team in third-down targets and kept the offense moving. However, Goff’s efficiency in pure passing situations plummeted when St. Brown wasn't available.

Jared Goff with or without Amon-Ra St. Brown on EPA per attempt on third down

Goff had the highest EPA per attempt of any QB on third downs in the games where St. Brown played more than 75% of the snaps. Detroit converted nearly half of their throws with ARSB healthy (49.4%). They picked up a first down on 28.8% of their passes without him. And it’s not like Goff’s other options could pick up the slack.

Yards per Route Run Rank among Lions' players

None of the WRs could crack the top 20 in YPRR. Shane Zylstra, the only TE with more than five targets on third down, was 63rd out of the 65 tight ends. And Swift was still battling for touches with the other RBs. Another consistent intermediate threat would give Goff the outlet he needs to keep the offense on schedule while setting up their next QB for a smooth transition into the offense.

Make “Biting Kneecaps” More Than A Metaphor

Dan Campbell’s speeches are legendary, but ultimately fall into the category of coach speak regarding Detroit’s defense. They came up with big turnovers at critical moments but on a per-play basis, they were unreliable at best.

Each facet of the Lions’ defense ranked below average. Their front had the lowest pressure rate, while Detroit’s pass coverage gave up the third-most yards of any squad. The fantasy angle was that Goff would have to keep throwing with opposing teams putting up points. However, the veteran QB performed better with the game under his control.

Lions when trailing versus ahead by two possessions

Goff’s Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) actually ticked up in positive game situations. And with the increased throwing rate, he was more efficient, with a higher touchdown rate than if forced to play catch-up. The latest mocks have Detroit eyeing DTs and CBs that would bring stability to their defense. So, even without the potential for shootouts, the passing offense can still deliver for fantasy managers.