Regression Session Week 1. Two Elite RBs Primed to Regress.

Football is finally back! After a long offseason of drafting best ball teams, debating player takes, and discussing strategy, it’s time to turn over the cards and find out where we were right and wrong.

As the season progresses, I’ll be writing each week about players who are candidates for regression, both positive and negative, based on their recent performances. Since we don’t have recent performances to evaluate just yet, we’re going to start by looking at players who over and underperformed based on their workloads in 2022.

Earlier this summer, I wrote about the top positive and negative regression candidates from a season-long perspective. Today, I’m back with another handful of candidates who are likely to experience regression, whether it's for better or worse.

Let’s dive in.

Positive Regression Candidates

The Washington Backfield

The Commanders' 2022 season was mired in mediocrity, ending with an 8-8-1 record. That was largely due to their offense struggling to put points on the board, as Washington finished just 24th in points per game (PPG) last year.

Entering 2023, the Commanders' offense is in a rare situation where they have the potential to take enough of a leap for both RBs to outperform their 2022 campaigns. If that were to happen, both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson could return good value on their current ADPs.

The story here is all about TDs.

Robinson and Gibson combined for 424 total opportunities (carries + targets) last season but scored just five total TDs combined.

Jan 1, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8) carries the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the second half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

According to the Pro Football Focus (PFF) Expected Points Model, their combined workload should have yielded closer to 12 TDs on the season. The opportunities simply weren't there, as Robinson and Gibson both ranked outside the top-20 RBs in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line.

The duo is expected to handle the vast majority of work once again in 2023, and with a new offensive coordinator and QB, Washington's offense could put their RBs in scoring position more often this coming season. If Sam Howell can even come close to living up to the offseason hype, Robinson and Gibson could both surprise in fantasy.

Drake London, WR - Falcons

On the surface, Drake London’s rookie season was a bit of a disappointment for a top-10 overall draft pick. In light of the recent success of WRs like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, London’s 866 receiving yards and four TDs was a bit underwhelming.

However, if we dig a little bit deeper, there are reasons for optimism. For starters, it's difficult to overstate just how bad of a situation London was in last season. The Falcons ranked 31st in most major passing stats (only the Bears were worse) and put up just 158.8 yards of passing production per game.

Not only was the offense extremely run-heavy by design, when Atlanta did drop back to pass, they had some of the worst QB play in the league.

All of those uncatchable passes resulted in Marcus Mariota posting the worst adjusted completion percentage among all QBs with at least 300 dropbacks in 2022. This had a direct impact on his top WR, who underperformed both the yardage and TD expectations for his workload per the PFF Expected Points Model.

Despite playing in this horrible offensive environment, London still posted 2.04 yards per route run (YPRR), which is a really strong number for a rookie. His high YPRR indicates that London was able to overcome a poor passing offense to achieve an admirable level of efficiency.

With Desmond Ridder now under center for the Falcons, there's a chance that Atlanta's passing game could take a step forward in 2023, both in quantity and quality. Even in a Falcons offense that's expected to be very run-heavy once again, simply getting league-average QB play could go a long way toward unlocking London's fantasy potential.

Negative Regression Candidates

Josh Jacobs, RB - Raiders

Josh Jacobs had a career year in 2022, exploding for over 2,000 yards from scrimmage with a finish as the fantasy RB3 on the season. Not only did Jacobs see 86 more opportunities than he had in any previous season, but he also posted a career-best in yards per attempt.

It's rare for a RB's volume and efficiency to peak at the same time, and Jacobs's campaign is a testament to his abilities.

After holding out for most of the offseason, Jacobs got his contract re-worked to add some incentives and is back for at least one more year as the lead RB in Las Vegas.

Over his first three seasons in the league, Jacobs averaged 285 touches. His previous career-high 306 touches came as a sophomore in 2020, and Jacobs shattered that with 392 touches last season.

Even with that volume last year, Jacobs was efficient, setting a new career-high 4.9 yards per attempt and coming close to matching career-highs in yards after contact per attempt (3.40) and YPRR (1.17). He also outperformed PFF’s Expected Fantasy Points model by 2.0 PPG, having logged 200 more rushing yards and three more rushing TDs than the model predicted based on his workload.

As a result, Jacobs is a negative regression candidate in both volume and efficiency in 2023. Unsurprisingly, our Fantasy Life projections expect Jacobs to see about 100 fewer touches this season.

Josh Jacobs 2023 Projected Stats

And even if Jacobs did manage to even come close to the workload he saw in 2022, it would be tough for him to repeat that kind of efficiency behind PFF’s 19th ranked offensive line heading into the season.

Fortunately for drafters, Jacobs's ADP was suppressed for most of the summer due to holdout concerns, so he still has a chance to be a valuable asset for fantasy if you managed to grab him in the third round or later earlier in the offseason. Anyone who drafted him more recently at a significantly higher ADP might end up disappointed, though.

Derrick Henry, RB - Titans

Derrick Henry is known for breaking models and consistently defying calls for regression, so this one may come back to bite me. In general, though, I like the idea of fading a 29-year-old RB with over 2,000 career touches.

Of course, King Henry is no mere mortal, but there are a few reasons to think that this might be the year that betting against Henry will finally pay off.

The most concerning issue is that Henry’s rushing efficiency has dipped in recent seasons. Over the past two years, he's been below average (relative to his career) in the following categories:

Yards per attempt
Yards after contact per attempt
Breakaway rush %

Running back Derrick Henry (22), in action against Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, Wash., on Sept. 19, was the Tennessee Titans' leading rusher for 2021 with 937 yards on 219 carries with 10 rushing touchdowns. Photo Credit: George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

This decline has been masked somewhat due to the fact that he still saw a ton of volume when on the field. Henry has also managed to find his way into the end zone at an above-average rate, so his TD production has kept his fantasy value high as well.

In 2022, Henry also benefited from outlier numbers in the receiving game, smashing his old career-high in receiving yardage. However, we probably shouldn’t view those 398 receiving yards as sustainable considering the fact that PFF’s Expected Fantasy Points model estimates that he should've only logged 237 receiving yards based on his role in the passing game.

It also doesn't help that heading into 2023, Henry appears to have the most talented backup (dare I say complementary back?) to date in Tyjae Spears. Tennessee also added a significant red-zone receiving threat in DeAndre Hopkins, which they lacked last season after trading away A.J. Brown.

While Henry is still expected to handle a large workload this coming year, he'll be facing more competition for high-value touches at the goal line and in the passing game than at any previous point in his career. Our Fantasy Life projections still have him leading the league in rushing attempts, but the recipe is there for all those touches to result in disappointing fantasy production if Spears is stealing passing-game usage and Hopkins is stealing red-zone TDs.

Add in age and career workload concerns on top of the newfound competition for high-value touches, and there are plenty of scenarios in which Henry could fall well short of his 2022 production.

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