😅 Be Very Careful With These RBs
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we break down Calvin Ridley's outlook, when to draft more WRs, and players bound to regress.
49 more days until the season starts…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Summer Collection:
- Fantasy drafts just got trickier
- Calvin Ridley is on a mission
- When and Why To Take More WRs: Mooooooar!
- Regression Session: A WR primed to bounce back
- It’s 7/20. Take it away, Peter Overzet
For most of the summer, the late-second round and early-third round of drafts have been a gold mine for running backs with elite, bellcow upside. Seriously, look at these names:
But in the past couple of days, additional question marks have cropped up for every single one of the RBs listed above. And it’s important that we proceed with caution to ensure we are getting the best possible prices down the drafting home stretch.
🤝 The Patriots and Jets looking to add an RB??
Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall have been two of my favorite clicks at the 2-3 turn in drafts. They possess the three-down skill set that gives them tantalizing, Top-5 upside at the position.
But they both could be getting company soon…
Both the Patriots and the Jets sit atop boards in the betting market as potential teams to sign free-agent RB Dalvin Cook. That is not great for backfields already featuring Stevenson and Hall.
To further complicate things, yesterday news broke that
FA RB Leonard Fournette was working out with the Patriots.
The Jets placed Hall on the PUP list to open training camp.
Ruh-roh.
The training camp PUP list isn’t a huge worry because they can be activated at any time and there’s still plenty of time before the season starts.
But regardless of how much you think Cook and Fournette have left in the tank, these signings would certainly send Stevenson and Hall’s ADPs in a downward spiral.
I’m less concerned with Cook capping the season-long upside of either the lead backs, but Fournette would be a wet blanket on Stevenson’s pass-catching projection.
Regardless, I recommend proceeding with caution until these FA shoes drop because cheaper prices are likely coming.
⛔️ Barkley & Jacobs holding out?
Ian broke down the holdout situations the other day, and I recently explained why I think Barkley is just bluffing to save face, so we don’t need to belabor the holdout threats.
That said, markets are going to market, and I do expect both Barkley and Jacobs to get cheaper in drafts until they return to the field. Comments like this will inevitably spook drafters:
“My leverage is I could say, ‘f--- you’ to the Giants, I could say, ‘f--- you to my teammates….And be like, ‘You want me to show you my worth? You want me to show you how valuable I am to the team? I won’t show up. I won’t play a down.’ And that’s a play I could use.”
Saquon Barkley on The Money Matters Podcast
There’s no need to take these guys at their current ADP right now. Make sure you are getting a discount.
🐶 Derrick Henry ain’t getting cheaper
The last back we’ll discuss here is the only one not getting cheaper. In fact, Henry is about to get more expensive now that DeAndre Hopkins signed with the Titans.
While that might seem bizarre on the surface, Hopkins signing with Tennessee ensures that the team is going to do everything in their power to remain competitive.
That means we are getting Ryan Tannehill at QB and don’t need to worry about Will Levis or Malik Willis tanking this team to the 2024 1.01.
And that means a more functional offense with more drives and more red zone trips.
You see where I’m going with this, right?
The Big Dog gonna eat.
🔮 TLDR: Plan ahead
Don’t get too cozy with the existing ADP market. Things are about to change quickly, and if we do a good job of forecasting these ADP movements, we can draft better teams within a stronger portfolio.
👕 Show Up To Your Draft in Style!
You didn't choose the Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Life chose YOU!
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Grab your draft sheets, grab your laptop, and grab your new swag. It's time to draft.
💪 Can I interest you in a shirtless Kyle Pitts working out? Here ya go.
🦁 The Jets trade a WR. And the Lions get a deep threat.
😱 Do the Cowboys need to worry about a holdout? Sounds like it.
🚀 The summer of Calvin Ridley. He’s destroying practice right now.
⌚️ The final countdown has begun. The season is almost here.
🧘 Don’t panic about Kendre Miller or Isiah Pacheco. Deep breaths. More deep breaths.
🔥 The new Seahawks throwback uniforms are so sick. Gimme one.
If you’ve drafted any teams on Underdog, you know how popular WRs are. But it begs the question: should we be drafting more or less WRs??? Today, Dwain tackles it…
Wide receivers are flying off the board in best ball drafts this summer on Underdog. After a substantial rise in value last year, their average draft position is climbing again in 2023 drafts while RBs are slipping.
- The top 60 WRs are going 4.2 picks sooner
- The top 60 RBs are going 4.4 picks later
Another way to think about this is by comparing Underdog to non-best-ball formats using the Fantasy Life ADP Tool. Underdog drafters are handily selecting more WRs over the first 10 rounds (120 picks):
- Underdog: 55
- NFFC: 47
- RealTime Fantasy Sports: 43
- Yahoo!: 40
The scoring format plays a role with RealTime and Yahoo! leagues only requiring two starting WRs and one flex versus three WRs and one flex for Underdog. However, The NFFC requires three starting WRs and a flex.
Interestingly, all these sites are full-point PPR leagues except Underdog, which is half-PPR. That is interesting because WRs typically score more points in PPR formats.
So what in the world is going on here?
Are Underdog drafters too bullish on WRs, or are re-drafters on other platforms underestimating the value of WRs?
In order to answer these questions, I decided to turn to the data to see how valuable WRs have been in relation to RBs and TEs since 2011.
🧮 Methodology:
Analyze the top 120 finishers across RBs, WRs and TEs for each season since 2011 in PPR, half PPR and standard scoring formats. Think of it as an overall scoring breakdown minus QBs.
I chose total points over points per game (PPG) because injuries are part of the game. Of course, other factors are at play since RBs are more likely to share time than starting WRs. However, in cases where PPG changes the complexion of the top 120 finishers, they receive a callout.
The top 120 finishers break down into five buckets:
- 1 to 12
- 13 to 24
- 25 to 36
- 37 to 72
- 73 to 120
🌕️ PPR Leagues
To put it bluntly, WRs have dominated PPR scoring formats over the last 12 seasons. They lead the way in scoring across EVERY bucket of our top 120 fantasy finishers.
When switching to a PPG view of this data, RBs make the 1 to 12 bucket a near tie at 47% vs. 48% for WRs. However, the rest of the buckets don’t change.
If thinking about pure ceiling outcomes and isolating to the top-three finishers, RBs take the lead 67% to 33%.
Takeaways:
We should be drafting more WRs early and often in PPR formats
We still want to take swings on RBs thanks to their immense ceilings, but they likely need to be a pass catcher
Anchor (hero) and Zero RB builds are in play
🌗 Half-PPR Leagues
We see RBs claim a slight advantage over WRs for top-12 finishes in half PPR. However, WRs once again dominate the rest of the way.
From a PPG perspective, RBs strengthen their edge to 58% vs. 39% and make things slightly closer in the 25 to 36 range (44% vs. 48%), but the other buckets don’t change.
When isolating to the top-three finishes, RBs distance from WRs by a large margin (81% vs. 19%).
Takeaways:
Underdog drafters are onto something, taking so many WRs in the first ten rounds, and the strategy can work beyond best ball formats
RBs are more likely to hit the high-ceiling outcomes, meaning Underdog drafters might be slightly overconfident in passing on top-12 options
Anchor RB builds are in play; taking two RBs in the first three rounds is also a viable option
🌑 Standard Leagues
Running backs gain a significant edge in top-12 and top-24 finishes in leagues that award zero points for receptions, which makes sense. However, from 25 to 120, WRs once again dominate.
When viewing this data from a PPG perspective, RBs extend their lead over WRs in top-12 finishes (73% vs. 25%), but the other buckets don’t significantly change.
It is difficult for WRs to manage a top-three finish in standard scoring formats, with only 8% achieving that mark versus 92% for RBs.
Takeaways:
We should be drafting more RBs early in standard formats
Don’t take RB drafting too far; WRs have a clear edge after the top 24 finishers
Grabbing one or two high-end RB options is the preferred option in the first three rounds is preferable
Who ran hot last year? Who ran poorly? Today Jonathan brings back his Regression Session series to see who he likes to bounce back in 2023…
We are now fewer than 50 days from the start of the NFL season. Hot Best Ball summer is in full swing, dynasty rookie drafts are mostly complete, and we are now beginning to turn our attention to redraft leagues.
As we focus on expectations for what we think will happen in 2023, it can help to take a look back at some of the outlier performances from last year.
Let’s start things off on a positive note with a player who should easily top their 2022 production.
📈 Positive Regression - Diontae Johnson
The clearest positive regression candidate among fantasy-relevant players is Diontae Johnson. He set a truly absurd NFL record for the most targets and receptions in a season without a receiving TD last year.
His mark of 147 scoreless targets is 41 more than any player in NFL history. If that’s not the definition of a negative outlier, I don’t know what is.
Any way you slice it, Johnson ran bad last year. Per the PFF Expected Points model, the volume that Johnson earned could have reasonably resulted in more than 1,100 receiving yards and at least six TDs.
In reality, he only accumulated 882 receiving yards and no scores. This was by far his lowest output since his rookie season when he only saw 92 targets.
And for those of you wondering if Johnson is to blame, just know that he ranked first among all WRs for ESPN Analytics’ Open Score. For anyone not familiar, you can read more about what Open Score is measuring here.
The important thing to know is that Johnson continued to do in 2022 what he has done for his entire career, get open. Johnson is excellent at creating separation against defenders, and we have no reason to think that will change in 2023.
What could change is improved QB play from second-year signal caller Kenny Pickett.
Even if you don’t think that Pickett will take a step forward, it’s difficult to see how Johnson could get any worse from a fantasy perspective.
In our Fantasy Life projections, we only have Pickett projected to throw for 3,250 yards and 19 TDs but still have Johnson topping his total fantasy points from last season when he finished as the WR32.
In my opinion, this is on the more conservative side of a full-season projection for Johnson, but it shows that he is essentially being drafted at his floor.
