TE Draft Strategy. Tight Ends with Massive Target Upside.

Every year the fantasy community collectively convinces itself that THIS is the season that our favorite late-round TE options will finally hit.

And..maybe…this really is the year!

There are talented rookies set to receive day-one starting jobs across the league, and plenty of productive veterans are also meandering around the mid-tier TE2 ranks.

That said: My favorite late-round TE strategy continues to be … getting one of Fantasy’s consensus top-10 ranked options at the position and avoiding the cheaper options altogether.

While the gap between a mid-tier TE1 and TE2 might have been rather slim last season, 2023 is a new year, and it’s tough to find many (any?) later-round picks with the same combination of talent and fantasy-friendly opportunity that the position’s top-10 players appear to possess.

Of course, there is at least some level of history regarding cheap fantasy TEs emerging as top-six options by the time the season is all said and done. The lowest preseason ADP from an eventual top-six finisher in PPR points per game over the last 10 years:

2018 Jared Cook: TE18
2018 Evan Engram: TE18
2015 Jordan Reed: TE19
2013 Julius Thomas: TE22
2019 Darren Waller: TE25
2016 Kyle Rudolph: TE27
2021 Dalton Schultz: TE33
2015 Gary Barnidge: TE40
2020 Logan Thomas: TE49
2020 Robert Tonyan: TE69

These players all certainly proved to be more talented than the public was giving them credit for, but they also managed to surprise regarding just how featured of a role they possessed from day one.

What follows is a look at which TEs *realistically* have a chance to rack up bunches of targets at a reasonable ADP.

There is no possible way to score fantasy points in the year 2023 without getting the football first. So if we’re going to dive into the deep end of the position, might as well try to target someone who will have bunches of chances to ball the hell out.

The following four TEs possess a target projection north of 75, according to Fantasy Life Projections, and are priced outside of the top 100 options in NFFC ADP. They aren’t all guaranteed to hit, but you could imagine what it’d be like if they did.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers

Target Projection: 90.2
ADP: 105.5

The 24-year-old TE only found the end zone twice in 2022, and Kenny Pickett wasn’t on the field either time; just realize the target distribution in Pickett’s ~11 games under center was certainly in his favor:

Diontae Johnson: 92
Pat Freiermuth: 67
George Pickens: 58
Najee Harris: 38
Chase Claypool: 27

Hell, Freiermuth had more targets than Pickens in 11 of 15 games together last season. Madness.

Dec 11, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (88) pushes aside Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

With top-seven marks in PFF receiving grade (78.3) and yards per route run (1.68), Freiermuth fits the mold of an ascending young talent inside of a passing offense without too much room to go but up.

I regularly find myself going after Freiermuth or our next TE due to the reality that the tier dropoff afterward is incredibly steep.

David Njoku, Browns

Target Projection: 77.3
ADP: 113.7

Njoku is in a similar boat as Cooper: Their great 2022 campaigns ended on a bit of a sour note with Watson under center.

Overall, Njoku put up the following numbers in five games with Watson under center:

Week 14: 7 receptions-59 yards-1 TD (9 targets)
Week 15: 3-28-0 (6)
Week 16: 2-14-0 (5)
Week 17: 1-21-0 (3)
Week 18: 4-42-1 (5)

The former and latter performances produced top-six finishes, while Njoku couldn’t crack the position’s top-24 fantasy scorers during the middle three contests. At least Njoku played over 90% of the offense’s snaps in all five games; there’s no doubting who the Browns’ featured No. 1 TE is these days.

The soon-to-be 27-year-old looked the part of a truly great talent in 2022.

PFF receiving grade: 78.7 (No. 6 among 47 qualified TE)
Yards per route run: 1.55 (No. 12)
Yards per reception: 10.8 (No. 19)
Yards after the catch per reception: 5.9 (No. 12)
Targets per route run: 0.2 (No. 11)

I mean, look at this catch!

Njoku is an athletically gifted, plus-receiving TE with a full-time role: He’s fully deserving of his top-10 treatment at the position.

Dalton Schultz, Texans

Target Projection: 85.7
ADP: 128.4

Schultz didn’t exactly get the sort of big-money deal that he was perhaps hoping for after racking up 17 touchdowns over the past three seasons.

Still, Schultz ranks 14th in yards per route run and 19th in the percentage of routes to be considered open or wide open by PFF over the last two seasons; the veteran’s sometimes elite fantasy numbers haven’t been backed by the same level of underlying efficiency.

This is particularly true when looking at how Schultz has performed with and without Dak Prescott under center:

With Dak (33 games): 4.5 rec-47.9 yards-0.45 TD
Without Dak (15 games): 3.2-27.9-0.13

Overall, Schultz was held under 50 receiving yards in all but two of his 15 games without Prescott since 2020. He scored a total of 15 TDs in 33 games with Prescott compared to just two in 15 games without. Not great!

Of course, volume has a way of curing middling efficiency, and absolutely nobody has more available targets or air yards than the Texans entering 2023. Schultz is a rare TE with a realistic opportunity to lead his offense in targets.

Aug 19, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) talks with Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (83) after throwing an incomplete pass and turning over the ball on downs in the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Also, of course, this isn't a guarantee and porous efficiency is possible with a rookie QB inside of an offense that hasn't done much of anything right for the better part of the last two seasons.

Schultz’s price has cooled to the point where it’s hard to be too upset about the pick, but I prefer the more youthful options and/or investing in a legit top-10 option at the position vs. going this route.

Tyler Higbee, Rams

Target Projection: 80.9
ADP: 143.4

Higbee managed to post fantasy goodness with both Stafford and Mayfield under center. His early-season booms came despite sharing the field with Kupp.

There’s actually an argument that the Rams No. 1 TE underachieved in 2022 when looking at expected PPR points per game:

Kyle Pitts (-34.5 PPR points below expectation)
Higbee (-32.9)
Cade Otton (-29.2)
Cameron Brate (-24.9)
Logan Thomas (-24.4)

Sometimes scoring fantasy points below expectation is unlucky. And sometimes, it’s a sign that a player is bad. Either way, Higbee had the volume of a legit top-five option at the position last season. Overall, only Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts and Dalton Schulz averaged more expected PPR points per game than Higbee last season.

Of course, Higbee’s most productive and volume-happy periods of his career have come during McVay’s worst times as an offensive play-caller; it’s unlikely the team is planning on building the offense around their rising eighth-year TE.

Sustained top-10 heights throughout the season seem unlikely – but that’s okay when the man is priced this cheap. Higbee joins Gerald Everett as my two favorite extra-late-round options at the position.

You can take advantage of the ADP on these four TEs on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 PLUS a mystery Pick'em special when you sign up below!

TE Draft Strategy. Tight Ends with Massive Target Upside.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers

David Njoku, Browns

Dalton Schultz, Texans

Tyler Higbee, Rams

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