Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

• Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
• Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
• Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
• Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
• Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can co-exist as high-end WRs.

In Kupp’s first game back from injury, he and Nacua combined to account for an astounding 68% of the Rams targets in Week 5 against the Eagles.

Both WRs registered top-10 finishes.

While that sort of target domination from two players is rare — it is possible, given the high-end target-earning ability each player has demonstrated. 

The Rams Team Style is also working in favor of the duo. Los Angeles ranks fifth in dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) at 6% on the season and ranks sixth in plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) at +0.06.

Regardless of the game script, Sean McVay wants this team passing and playing fast. There is a chance that the Rams lead the NFL in passing attempts — they currently rank second at 40.6 per game.

Look for Matthew Stafford to continue peppering his top two options with the majority of targets in an offense that has big upside, thanks to their suddenly loaded WR room.

Outlook: Kupp and Nacua are both WR1s the rest of the way.

2. Breece Hall has taken over the lead rushing role for the Jets.

Robert Saleh told us last week that the restrictor plate was removed from Hall’s touch count he wasn’t lying. The second-year back delivered 28 fantasy points on 22 attempts and three targets in Week 5 against that high school defense from Denver.

Hall registered a season-high 76% of the rushing attempts, and while he might not dominate in that fashion every week, he is clearly in the driver’s seat with Dalvin Cook looking like toast.

Michael Carter continues to play a role, handling the two-minute offense (91%) and most of the long-down-distance snaps (84%), but Hall was a high-end passing game weapon as a rookie, and we could see his utilization expand similarly on that front over time. Hall’s 21% TPRR is in RB1 territory based on the last three years of data.

Outlook: Hall UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status the rest of the way.

3. Tyjae Spears might be the BEST STASH PLAY in fantasy football.

Spears handles almost all of the passing down work for the Titans, and in Week 5 he registered his largest rushing workload at 33%. Derrick Henry is still the No. 1 option on the ground, but his grip appears to be in a slight downward trend since Week 1.

These situations are always hard to read — sometimes something that looks like a trend is just variance. However, for the first time in a long time, it isn’t 100% clear that Henry is the best RB on the Titans.

Henry faces eight-plus defenders in the box almost twice as often as Spears, but it is hard to ignore the decline in the veteran’s underlying efficiency data. At the age of 29, there is a chance that age has finally caught up to King Henry.

Considering the downward trends in utilization and efficiency for Henry, combined with how well Spears is playing, the rookie should be rostered in most formats. The team already trusts him on passing downs, which supplies flex value. Spears offers contingent upside should he carve out more work or if Henry suffers an injury. 

Sep 17, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears (32) runs for a first down after a reception in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

We love outs, and Spears offers plenty of them. His 26% rostership in Yahoo! leagues is far too low, making him a high-priority add in the Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Hub heading into Week 6.

FAAB Recommendation: 15-25%

Outlook: Spears UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status and offers contingent RB1 upside should Henry go down.

4. George Pickens is DOMINATING with an expanded route tree.

With Diontae Johnson out of the lineup, we have seen the role for Pickens broaden.

Only 13% of Pickens' targets have come on looks 20-plus yards downfield in 2023. That number was an astounding 36% last year. Pickens is running more slants, crossers and posts while his go routes are down form 38% to 29%.

Since Johnson exited the lineup in Week 1, Pickens has been a target magnet.

The second-year WR leads the Steelers in targets against zone (23%) and man coverage (30%) per PFF data. And when he gets his opportunities, he is making the most of them. Of WRs with at least 40 targets, only Tyreek Hill averages more yards per catch (18.1) than Pickens (17.9).

While we have questions about Kenny Pickett and Johnson will eat into targets upon return, Pickens' rest of season outlook is bright. When players show this level of ability as a target earner AND playmaker, they can overcome playing in tough environments.

Outlook: Pickens UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status and could join the high-end WR2 conversation if his target earning continues when Johnson returns.

5. The Rhamondre Stevenson situation is HURTING MY BRAIN.

Stevenson was one of the most efficient backs in the NFL in 2022. At the age of 25, that isn’t something we would expect to change overnight. However, that is exactly what happened.

Fast forward to 2023 and Stevenson looks like one of the worst backs in the league and is killing fantasy managers, averaging 9.1 points per game as the RB28. I mean WTF man!?!?

According to PFF grades, the Patriots were equally as bad at run blocking in 2022 (56.7) as they are this season at 54.8. So it isn’t the offensive line. 

Stevenson showed up on the injury report last week with a thigh issue, but that doesn’t explain his first four games unless it went unreported. That would honestly make the most sense but it would be pure guesswork.

What we know is that Stevenson’s playing time is in jeopardy, with his utilization sinking to season lows in Week 5.

While the utilization decrease on the ground is a bummer, the combination of Stevenson’s 14% TPRR and falling route participation are real challenge. Our thesis on Stevenson was that he should be one of the top passing game options on an attack without many weapons. That hasn’t come to fruition.

Elliott has played better than Stevenson, but his numbers are all at or below NFL averages as well. That leaves the door open for Stevenson to make noise down the stretch if his performance is health related.

For now, though, we have no other option than to drastically reduce our expectations the rest of the way.

Outlook: Stevenson DOWNGRADES to RB3 territory.

6. Jonathan Taylor got the bag and Zack Moss went off.

After signing a three-year $42M contract, Taylor hardly played in his return to action. Instead, Moss garnered an 80% snap share and smashed box scores with 34 points.

Eventually, things will tilt in Taylor’s favor but it is hard to know how long that will take, and Moss has played well enough to keep some of the work for himself. Once Taylor reaches his peak powers we should expect him to handle 60 to 65% of the snaps and rushing attempts.

That should be enough to push an uber-talented back like JT back into the mid-range RB1 conversation thanks to the Colts' new offensive scheme. Indianapolis ranks second in PPMOE at +0.19 and prefer to attack opponents with the run per their sixth-lowest DBOE of -2%.

Outlook: Until we see the Colts open up Taylor’s utilization he is a low-end RB2, but he will quickly climb into RB1 territory once that happens.

7. Zay Flowers is about to GO HAM (BUY-LOW).

Flowers is currently the WR30, averaging 12.4 points per game. That isn’t bad for a rookie you added to your team after Round 7 in fantasy drafts.

However, the underlying data suggests he is on the verge of something much bigger.

The first-round NFL Draft pick rarely leaves the field – he is one of only seven NFL players to eclipse 95% this year – and ranks 12th in target share with a sizzling 28%.

With Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman battling health issues and regressing hard in the targets department (13 and 15%), this Ravens passing attack flows through Flowers and Mark Andrews.

Flowers’ target share alone makes him a strong candidate to climb inside the top 24 WRs, but the evolution of his role over the last two weeks gives him the type of upside we crave.

Despite his size, Flowers was a strong downfield option for Boston College, and the Ravens have unlocked that portion of his game over the last two weeks, with his average depth of target climbing to 13.3 and 16.8.

Targets and air yards are two of the most sticky WR stats (talent-based) that correlate highly with scoring more fantasy points. Now the Baltimore rookie is popping in both aspects of his game. His air yards shares in Weeks 4 and 5 reached 41% and 39%, which is WR1 territory.

There have been 81 instances of WRs reaching a 25%-plus target share AND a 30%-plus air yards share. On average, they have finished as the WR9 with 18.4 points per game.

Outlook: Flowers UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status and offers WR1 upside, making him a great BUY-LOW option.

8. Sam Howell is DEALING.

Howell is the QB16 overall, averaging 17.6 points per game, but outside of his Week 3 stinker, he has been more impressive. The second-year signal-caller has finishes of QB11, QB13, QB32, QB12 and QB6.

Howell was known for his scrambling prowess in college, which has surfaced more over the last two contests with 12% and 7% scramble rates. He still isn’t involved in the designed run game, so he still falls into the pocket-passer archetype, but he offers spike game potential on the ground.

The biggest concern for Howell is his 12% sack rate, which is double the three-year NFL average of 5.9%. Sacks drastically increase the odds of a drive failing, which will limit the overall ceiling of the offense if not corrected.

The promising part is Howell’s underlying passing data aligns with his fantasy production. He ranks seventh in completion rate over expectation (+4.2), and the Commanders are leaning heavily into the passing attack. After accounting for game scripts, this team is a pass-first operation, ranking sixth in dropback rate over expectation (DBOE).

What the former Round 5 NFL Draft selection is doing is impressive — especially considering the lack of imagination we have seen from the Commanders’ coaching staff.

• Play Action: 14% (29th)
• Shift or Motion: 53% (15th)
• Trick Play Look: 5% (25th)

Those three elements create edges for the offense by either manipulating the defense or giving the offensive player a positional/momentum advantage at the snap. But so far Eric Bienemy has chosen the line-up-and-beat-the-guy-across-from-you approach.

That plan has worked thus far because the Commanders have a solid group of pass catchers in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas. While none of these options are elite, as a group they are enough to stress most defenses.

In summary, Howell checks a lot of boxes we care about in fantasy. He is playing well, the team wants to throw the ball, and they have enough weaponry to support big games. If his scramble rate gets into the 10% range, we will get additional value from his legs versus other pocket-passing options.

Howell is available in over 60% of leagues if you are struggling at QB.

FAAB Recommendation: 10-20%

Outlook: Howell UPGRADES to mid-range QB2 status and offers weekly borderline QB1 upside.

You can target his weekly upside on Underdog Fantasy in Pick'em contests, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

QB Utilization Bytes

• Brock Purdy: The second-year QB has four top-12 finishes in five starts and the 49ers appear matchup-proof thanks to their abundance of playmakers and balanced approach. The only concern for Purdy is the 49ers -3% DBOE, which ranks sixth-lowest. With such a run-first mentality and the potential for blowout scripts, Purdy is still capable of low fantasy outputs. Purdy UPGRADES to borderline QB1 status.
   
• Joe Burrow: Once again, the Bengals took a pass-first approach with a plus-6% DBOE against the Cardinals. But unlike previous weeks, Burrow responded with 317 yards and 3 passing TDs. Burrow RETURNS to mid-range QB1 status.
   
• Matthew Stafford: Stafford has yet to pop the cork on a big fantasy day, but it is coming. The veteran QB suddenly has a loaded WR room and the Rams want to pass the ball and play up-tempo. Stafford averages 45 dropbacks per game and has a shot to lead the NFL in passing attempts. Since 2011, the average finish for QBs to reach 42 or more dropbacks per game is QB7 with 20.5 points per game. Stafford is a high-end QB2 that should be rostered over names like Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones.

RB Utilization Bytes

• Brian Robinson: Robinson crashed and burned in the Week 5 box score with only eight fantasy points. The trailing game script was a major challenge, leading to a season-low 36% snap share. We saw the same thing in Week 3 in a blowout loss. Robinson is a game-script-dependent mid-range RB2.
   
• Dameon Pierce: Pierce has 44 attempts over the last two games. The efficiency hasn’t been there, but the offensive line is getting healthier and the Texans offense is much better than anticipated. Pierce remains a BUY-LOW candidate.
   
• D’Andre Swift: Over the last three games, Swift averages 19.7 opportunities per game. Since 2012, the average finish for RBs with 18 to 22 opportunities per game was RB13 with 15.4 points per game. Swift is at 16.7 points per game and is currently the RB9. Swift is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside if he ever takes over more passing-down work from Gainwell.
   
• David Montgomery: Montgomery followed up his 34-point Week 4 outing with 21 points in Week 5. With Jahmyr Gibbs out, he saw season-highs in route participation (67%) and target share (19%). On a run-first offense, Montgomery is a mid-range RB1 in any contest without Gibbs.
   
• D’Onta Foreman: Foreman hasn’t played since Week 1 but could busy in Week 6 with Khalil Herbert likely out. Roschon Johnson is also dealing with a concussion, which would make Foreman the undisputed RB1 if Johnson can’t go. Foreman might not have long-lived value but is an RB2 when both starters are out and is an RB3 if Johnson plays. The veteran is available in most leagues.
   
• Emari Demercado: James Conner suffered a knee injury that could force him to miss some time. With Keaontay Ingram inactive for the game, Demercado took over the majority of work (77% snap share). Expect the former TCU back to handle most of the passing-down duties while Conner is out, but Ingram or another back will likely challenge for early-down work. Demercado is available in most leagues and is an RB3 option while Conner is out.
   
• Jaleel McLaughlin: With Javonte Williams sidelined, McLaughlin led the Broncos with 56% of the rushing attempts. Samaje Perine handled the majority of passing downs with a 68% route participation, but the rookie was active with a 40% TPRR when given the chance. McLaughlin is a low-end RB2 without Williams and is an upside RB4 once he returns.
   
• Jeff Wilson Jr: The veteran is set to come off IR and the Dolphins have 21 days to bring him onto the active roster. Originally, the thought was Wilson might need some more time, but with De’Von Achane’s Week 6 status up in the air we could see Wilson sooner rather than later. Wilson is available in 75% of leagues and offers RB2 potential should Achane miss an extended period of time — he is a priority stash play.
   
• Justice Hill: Hill missed Week 3 and was limited in Week 4 with a toe injury. However, he returned to a sizable role in Week 5 and delivered 15 fantasy points. Gus Edwards continued to lead the team with 55% of rushing attempts but Hill took over most of the LDD and two-minute work. Hill UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status and is available in over 70% of leagues.
   
• Keaontay Ingram: The second-year RB hasn’t played in two weeks but could return to a sizable role in Week 6 with James Conner injured. Demercado will likely handle most of the passing downs, but Ingram could pick up the bulk of carries left behind by Conner. If Ingram practices in full this week he could offer RB2 upside in a spot start.
   
• Kyren Williams: Williams posted a dud with only eight fantasy points, but his utilization remained in tip-top shape. The second-year back accounted for 92% of rushing attempts and delivered a 76% route participation. Williams remains a low-end RB1.
   
• Roschon Johnson: Khalil Herbert could miss multiple weeks due to an ankle injury, which opens the door for a larger role for Johnson if he can clear concussion protocol. Johnson is a low-end RB2 with upside while Herbert is out. He is available in almost 60% of leagues and is a PRIORITY waiver wire option this week.
   
• Samaje Perine: Perine dominated passing-down duties and handled the short-yardage work with Williams out. However, he only garnered 38% of the rushing attempts with McLaughlin leading the way at 56%. Perine is a low-end RB3 without Williams in the lineup but DOWNGRADES to RB5 status upon his return.
   
• Travis Etienne: The third-year RB erupted for 34 points in Week 5. He bogarted 84% of the snaps and 68% of the attempts over the last two games. He handles most of the two-minute offense (90%) and SDD work (88%), making him one of the few true bell-cow options. Etienne UPGRADES to a mid-range RB1.

WR Utilization Bytes

• Adam Thielen: The veteran WR is thriving in the slot — similar to late-career transitions we saw with guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne. Thielen is the WR9 on the season and averages a 30% target share excluding Week 1 when he was playing hurt. Thielen UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status.
   
• Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is dominating man coverage per usual, but his 29% TPRR against man coverage is notable because Deebo Samuel has dominated zone targets over the last three years and the NFL plays zone ~70% of the time. We can’t upgrade Aiyuk yet because Samuel hasn’t been 100% over the last two games. There is a chance PFF’s No. 1-graded WR is morphing into an alpha.
   
• Chris Olave: Olave started the season with three consecutive 30%-plus target share outings. Over the last two contests, he is at 18%. He wasn’t on the injury report last week but there are rumors he might be playing through an ankle injury. Olave now ranks as the WR28, averaging 12.4 points per game. Right now is a good time to consider BUYING LOW on a talent that grades out more like a WR1 than a WR3. When he and Derek Carr are both healthy, Olave is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside.
   
• Curtis Samuel: Samuel has back-to-back WR1 performances with 18 and 19 fantasy points. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Washington, so we shouldn’t get carried away with Samuel on the waiver wire, but he offers flex appeal if you are facing upcoming bye-week challenges. Samuel is a low-end WR4.
   
• DeAndre Hopkins: Earning targets hasn’t been a problem for the 31-year-old WR, who ranks fifth in the NFL in TPRR at 29%. However, his route participation had been an issue over the last three games, coming in under 85% as he worked his way through injuries. In Week 5, that issue disappeared as Hopkins reached 97% and 22 fantasy points followed. The Titans are a low-volume offense at 56 plays per game but aren’t as run-heavy as in previous seasons, with a -1% DBOE. Hopkins is a high-end WR3 and a strong SELL-HIGH candidate, thanks to age and the offense.
   
• D.J. Moore: Moore is the overall WR5 after a 49-point explosion game in Week 5 against the Commanders. He now has WR64, WR24, WR28, WR5 and WR2 finishes on the season. He almost never leaves the field and the targets are funneling his way at a 35% rate over the last three games. The Bears aren’t all-in on the run game like they were in 2022, but they aren’t a pass-happy team, either. They rank 22nd in dropbacks per game, which is an improvement, but they will need more unless Justin Fields’ 26th-ranked completion rate of 62% dramatically improves. Moore is a MID-RANGE WR2 with SELL-HIGH potential if someone wants to pay a WR1 price tag.
   
• Jahan Dotson: Dotson’s slow start is a bit perplexing, considering Howell averages 270 yards per game. In Week 4, we saw a dip in route participation due to an in-game injury, and that carried over into Week 5 (77%). For some reason, the Commanders feel the need to get Dyami Brown, Byron Pringle and Jamison Crowder onto the field. We could see a quick rebound for Dotson in playing time, but he also hasn’t played well. His 13% TPRR isn’t even WR5 material. Dotson could still be a factor down the stretch, but he DOWNGRADES to WR6 stash status.
   
• Jalin Hyatt: Hyatt has 59% and 60% route participation in the last two games. He hasn’t shown an ability to earn targets yet but the speedy WR is worth monitoring given the condition of the Giants’ WR room. The third-round NFL Draft pick has the speed to create big plays on limited opportunities. Hyatt UPGRADES to stash WR6 territory.
   
• Jameson Williams: The former first-round pick saw his first action of the season, registering a 20% TPRR and 50% route participation with Amon-Ra St. Brown out. The Lions indicated Williams would be on a snap count, so this isn’t a bad first data point. Williams shouldn’t be near lineups yet but that could change quickly. He is an UPSIDE WR6 stash option.
   
• Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy registered a season-high route participation (95%) and target share (29%) in Week 5. He missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury that might have impacted his performances up until now. With Russell Wilson playing well, Juedy is a strong BUY-LOW candidate in an offense without a passing centerpiece — he UPGRADES to high-end WR4 status. 
   
• Jordan Addison: Justin Jefferson left the game late with a hamstring injury and Addison registered a 100% route participation along with a 25% target share. If Jefferson misses time, Addison UPGRADES to WR3 status.
   
• Josh Downs: Downs has averaged 15 points in two games where Gardner Minshew took the majority of snaps. He is the No. 2 option on the Colts with a 20% TPRR — double that of Alec Pierce. The rookie is available in 90% of Yahoo! leagues and should be a PRIORITY as an Upside WR4 option.
   
• Rashee Rice: Rice is tied with Travis Kelce for the highest TPRR on the team at 35%. You would think he is due for a bump in playing time given how mid the rest of the WR room looks. However, that didn’t happen in Week 5. In fact, he posted his lowest route participation (23%) since Week 2. Rice remains an upside WR6 stash option.
   
• Trenton Irwin: Irwin registered an 82% route participation and 23% target share with Tee Higgins out of the lineup. Historically, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner but it isn’t easy playing next to Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins. Irwin shouldn’t be rostered in most formats but could come in handy in deep leagues or as a punt play in DFS if Higgins is out again.
   
• Tutu Atwell: Kupp returned to the lineup but Atwell held onto the WR3 job with a 95% route participation. Targets will be harder to come by, but Atwell remains rosterable in deeper formats thanks to his big-play upside and contingent value should Kupp or Nacua miss time. Atwell is DOWNGRADES to WR5 status.
   
• Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson was second on the team in TPRR in Week 5 at 20%. He left the game for a concussion evaluation but returned. His 56% route participation isn’t ideal, but we could see that expand given how badly the Giants WRs have played. Robinson UPGRADES to low-end WR4 status.

TE Utilization Bytes

• Dalton Schultz: Schultz has back-to-back top-six finishes with 13 and 20 points. Ultimately, his 18% TPRR and 71% route participation aren’t great, but the Texans offense is performing much better than expected. Schultz is a borderline TE1 moving forward but has the upside to climb into the mid-range TE1 conversation with more playing time. He is available in over 60% of leagues.
   
• Darren Waller: Waller saw his best utilization of the season with a 97% route participation and an eye-popping 38% target share. His 22% target share for the season ranks second second-best. Waller is a mid-range TE1.
   
• Jake Ferguson: The second-year TE has route participation marks of 62%, 67% and 73% over the last three games. Peyton Hendershot hasn’t played, which might be the primary reason. However, if the route participation holds, Ferguson has mid-range TE1 upside thanks to his elite 25% TPRR. Ferguson is a low-end TE1.
   
• Kyle Pitts: Pitts delivered season-highs in fantasy points (16) and target share (27%) BUT his route participation fell to a season-low 64%. Nothing is ever simple with Arthur Smith and the Falcons. Pitts remains a low-end boom-bust TE1.
   
• Logan Thomas: Thomas led the Commanders with a 23% target share on his way to a 23-point outburst in Week 5. He has two top-12 finishes in three healthy contests, along with a 78% route participation and an 18% TPRR. That is low-end TE1 utilization. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Washington, but they are leaning into the pass, and Howell is performing well. Those factors combine to give Thomas a legitimate chance at finishing as a low-end TE1. For now, Thomas UPGRADES to high-end TE2 status and could climb into the TE1 discussion after Week 6.
   
• Sam LaPorta: The rookie is the No. 1 TE in fantasy and his underlying utilization and talent profile look great. Based on historical comps, his 77% route participation and 24% TPRR are good enough to sustain a top-six campaign. The average finish for players in that range is TE3 at 15.8 points per game. LaPorta averages 14.4 points per game and is a top-five TE.