In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM

It’s officially NFL Futures season here at Betting Life. Does Futures Wednesday have the same ring as Futures Friday? Absolutely not. Is that going to stop me from writing about Coach of the Year odds today? Also no.

Thanks to some research from Geoff Ulrich, previous Coach of the Year winners can typically be broken down into two categories:

Veteran head coaches who elevate an above-average team to an elite one

Over the past 10 years, a handful of guys have fit this description. Ron Rivera leading the Panthers to 15 wins in 2015. John Harbaugh pushing the Ravens to 14 wins in 2019. Mike Vrabel getting the Titans to 12 wins in 2021. These coaches were in a situation where the cupboard wasn’t bare, but they were able to raise the team to a level that wasn’t previously expected.

Coaches who fit this archetype in 2024 include DeMeco Ryans (+1400), Shane Steichen (+1400), Matt LaFleur (+1600), and Mike McDaniel (+2200).

Rookie head coaches who take a previously below-average team and get them to the playoffs

This is probably the more traditional path to the Coach of the Year award. Previous winners include Brian Daboll (2022), Kevin Stefanski (2020), Matt Nagy (2018), and Sean McVay (2017).

Jim Harbaugh (+900) is the favorite to win COY in 2024, largely because he fits the new-coach archetype perfectly. Other potential options who fit this description include Raheem Morris (+1100), Dave Canales (+1600), Mike Macdonald (+2000), and Brian Callahan (+2500).

This isn’t to say that those are the only types of coaches who can win COY. Veteran coaches on teams that were poor last year can also get involved, which puts guys like Matt Eberflus (+1000), Jonathan Gannon (+1500), and Robert Saleh (+1800).

Regardless of which type of coach you go for, you’re almost assuredly going to need to target coaches who can get their team to the playoffs and increase their previous season's win total by at least a few games.

Let’s dive into two of my favorite options in this market.

What is in today’s newsletter?

Two AFC South coaches to target in Coach of the Year

Geoff Ulrich breaks down his best bets for the Wyndham Championship

Watercooler

Best Bets for 2024 NFL Coach of the Year

by Matt LaMarca

Shane Steichen (+1400; FanDuel)

I’m not sure the general public realizes how good of a coach Steichen is. He led the Colts to nine wins last season despite dealing with a host of hardships:

Only four games from Anthony Richardson

13 starts for Gardner Minshew, PFF’s No. 31 qualified quarterback

Seven missed games for Jonathan Taylor

The second-toughest schedule of opposing defenses, including the toughest schedule of run defenses

Steichen’s impact wasn’t just felt by the Colts, but also by his old team. The Eagles went from one of the best offenses in football in 2022—No. 3 in points and yards per game—to a much more mediocre unit. They had the same quarterback, same receivers, and arguably a better running back, yet they were still unable to duplicate their success under Steichen.

Last year, Steichen was able to make chicken salad out of an awful set of circumstances. This year? If everything goes right, he’ll have much better ingredients to work with. Richardson is quite possibly the greatest athlete to ever play quarterback at the NFL level. Adonai Mitchell gives the team a legit field stretcher. Taylor could be the best running back in the NFL.

It’s entirely possible that Steichen propels the Colts to the top of the offensive leaderboards and the AFC South standings. If they can win the division (+330; Caesars) or make the playoffs (+145; BetMGM), Steichen is very live to win Coach of the Year.

Brian Callahan (+2500)

Targeting longshots in COY can be fruitful, with four of the past five winners entering the season at +2000 or longer. One of the best parts about the NFL is the parity—there’s always at least one team that surprises in a big way.

Why couldn’t that team be the Titans? They’re undergoing a schematic change without Mike Vrabel and Derrick Henry, two franchise stalwarts who previously propelled the franchise to great heights. However, their approach had become stale in recent years.

Enter Callahan, who should bring a more pass-happy attack to Tennessee. The Titans repeatedly ran the ball on early downs into stacked boxes, putting quarterback Will Levis into obvious passing situations. That predictably didn’t go well.

But when Levis was allowed to throw on first down? He racked up 9.4 yards per attempt, +0.34 EPA per attempt, and a 52% Success Rate. Callahan takes over after being the OC for the Bengals over the past four seasons, and the team was top eight in early-down pass rate in each of the past three.

Callahan should let Levis air it out to a receiving corps that features Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins, who may miss the beginning of the season with a knee injury. Maybe Levis will struggle, but there’s a world where he takes advantage. The Titans are expected to face the third-easiest schedule in terms of passing defenses, so it could happen.

The Titans are +440 to make the playoffs, and if that happens, I think Callahan would be a deserving COY candidate. I’d rather play that at +2500.

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Wyndham Championship Best Bets

by Geoff Ulrich

Eric Cole Outright (+6500; FanDuel)

Top 10 (+600; FanDuel)

Top 20 (+280; FanDuel)

Cole’s irons have started to come back to life over his last few starts. He gained 0.65 strokes on approach per round at the Open and 3.2 strokes at both the Deere and Rocket Mortgage. He’s also fifth in proximity from 100-125 yards and eighth in Birdie or Better % over the last 24 rounds.

The 36-year-old paid off for us a few starts ago at the John Deere with a solid Top-10 finish on another shorter track, and he’s available at an even bigger price in the outright market for the Wyndham. He finished T14 at this event last season, gaining 8.8 strokes on the greens alone. While he’s the sort of veteran who has found success at Sedgefield, his long-term history of stalling out a place or two away from the win also makes him the perfect kind of player to ladder through the top-10 and top-20 markets.

There are more quality names ahead of him this week than were at the Deere, but he’s also solidified his form since then with more quality starts, so there is no premium baked into his number. As long as that’s the case, he makes for an easy add for me at a venue like Sedgefield.

JJ Spaun (+11000; FanDuel)

Top 10 (+900; FanDuel)

Spaun comes in ranked fifth in SG: Approach stats over the last 24 rounds and 11th in my overall model this week. For a player who is currently available as big as +11000 in the outright market and fits the profile of many past veteran winners at Sedgefield, that number was too big to pass up.

Overall, he’s gained an average of 5.2 strokes on approach over his last three starts and finished T10 at the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club just last month. Spaun has also played Sedgefield six times before, and while he’s yet to contend at this event, his current form and history at similar courses (T2 Sea Island; T3 El Camaleon) suggest he may break that trend in 2024.

Matthew NeSmith Each-Way 1/5 Top Eight (+16000; bet365)

NeSmith’s odds look like a bargain this week. The 30-year-old has posted two top-10 finishes over his last two PGA starts and gained 7.8 strokes on approach alone at the ISCO Championship, an event where he finished T2 and had multiple chances from inside 15 feet to win his first-ever PGA event.

NeSmith is accurate and has been showing confidence with his putter, gaining over a stroke on the greens in three of his last four starts. Even though he’s never contended at Sedgefield, he fits the profile of a player who should find success at this event. It’s worth noting that his two runner-up finishes on the PGA TOUR came at Hurstbourne Country Club (ISCO) and TPC Summerlin (Shriners)—courses where recent Wyndham winners Jim Herman (2020) and Tom Kim (2022) have also won.

His placement odds are sitting around +3200 if you each-way him to eight places on bet365, making him my favorite longshot of the week.