2024 NFL Mock Draft v8.0 (Final Version): The Jets Get Another Playmaker

The future is now. The NFL draft is almost here. It's time to write my final mock.

Here are my previous versions as well as my top 100 big board and best bets article.

Version 1: Post-Super Bowl
Version 2: Pre-Combine
Version 3: Post-Combine
Version 4: Post-Free Agency
Version 5: Two Weeks Away
Version 6: One Week Away
Version 7: Week of
Big Board: Top 100
Best Bets: Pessimism Pays?

Over the past five years I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and historically I’ve done well betting on the draft.

2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)

To this point, I've posted almost 60 bets in the Free Picks Channel of the Fantasy Life Discord and logged them in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

As I make additional bets, I will post them first in our Discord and then in our Bet Tracker.

Any odds referenced in this piece are from the following sportsbooks.

Here are a few preliminary notes before we get to the mock.

The 2024 NFL Draft is underway! Read about all of the 2024 NFL Draft winners and losers for fantasy football as the draft unfolds!

2024 Mock Draft Methodology

Here are some general notes.

My first and last focus is on the guys likeliest to go in the top 32. I care more about getting the right guys in Round 1 than matching them with the right teams.
I usually don't do trades, and there are none in this mock. I don't want to stack randomness on top of chaos
Since this is my final version, my analysis will be brief. Time is at a premium.
I have only four QBs in this version: QBs are regularly overmocked, and Michael Penix and Bo Nix look like the type of QB who gets Round 1 hype but goes in Round 2.
I have just five WRs included, as I expect the depth of this class to push some pass catchers down the board. Why draft a WR in Round 1 when you can address a thinner position in the top 32 and still get a quality WR on Day 2?

Mock Draft Updates - 2024

Here are notes on how various versions of my mock will be graded.

I participate in three mock draft contests, all of which measure accuracy differently.
The official final version published here is the one graded by Huddle Report and (maybe?) NFL Mock Draft Database. I have already submitted it to Huddle Report, the deadline for which was 12:59 am ET. (I presume NFL Mock Draft Database’s deadline is 8 pm ET, when the draft starts.)
Today, I will likely post an updated (though unofficial-for-Huddle Report) version of my mock on social media, where I will pin it to the top of my profile. I will also link to it in this section. This updated social media mock is the one I will enter in the FantasyPros contest, which has an 8 p.m. ET deadline today.

Why do an unofficial mock after my final one? I want the people who look at my mock (especially for betting purposes) to have the best and most recent information available all the way until the draft starts.

UPDATED UNOFFICIAL MOCK: I've gently updated the mock, flipping two CBs. Otherwise it's the same.

Here’s my final mock.

2024 NFL Mock Draft - v8.0 (FINAL)

1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Williams goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past two months, and he’s at least -10000 to go No. 1 at every sportsbook.

I originally bet Williams No. 1 at -900.

Pick via Panthers.

1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

No one knows for sure what's happening at No. 2 … but almost every mocker and analyst now projects Daniels to the Commanders, and he's -1000 to go No. 2 at almost every sportsbook.

I'm happy to have gotten him at +155 in February.

1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

This one's not a lock, as there are serious whispers from sharp bettors that the Patriots lean toward McCarthy.

But 92% of recent sharp mocks have Maye at No. 3, and his odds of -240 (DraftKings) carry an implied probability of "only" 70.6% (per our Fantasy Life Betting Odds Calculator).

I probably won't bet this at current odds, but I tentatively project Maye.

If it's not Maye, the top 10 will likely be thrown into chaos.

1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

The Cardinals could trade down (several teams might want to move up for a QB), but I’m relying on Matthew Berry, who heard this bit of gossip at the combine: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”

To be the No. 1 WR, Harrison is -715 (BetRivers).

1.05 (Chargers): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)

I alluded to this pick recently in my post on what I think I think about the NFL draft, saying this (I'm paraphrasing): “Whether they stay or trade down, I expect the Chargers to draft OL with their first pick, and I'm not sure it will be Joe Alt.”

As of now, I lean toward Latham, whom I've bet at +4000 to be the No. 5 pick.

Alt is fantastic, but he's a finesse LT. He's not a great fit for HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman’s power-based offense.

But Latham is young (21) and pedigreed (five stars) with two years of starting experience at Alabama in the SEC. Plus, he plays on the right side, so he's a natural bookend to LT Rashawn Slater.

1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

The Giants need a true No. 1 WR. Nabers will be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign, and he balled out with 89-1,569-14 receiving last season.

1.07 (Titans): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

This pick has been chiseled in stone for months in almost every mock. The Titans need an OT.

1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

In previous versions, I had the Falcons going with Dallas Turner, and I might regret pivoting to Latu, as Turner is still a +100 favorite to the No. 1 defender selected.

But Latu (the 2023 Ted Hendricks Award winner and a unanimous first-team All-American) is probably the most NFL-ready pass rusher in the class (23.5 sacks in final two seasons).

The main concern with him is his injury history (he medically retired in 2021 because of a neck fusion), but the Falcons cleared him in his checkup.

I think it's close to a coinflip between Turner and Latu.

1.09 (Bears): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

The Bears got their QB at No. 1. Now at No. 9 they get a difference-making interior force to place next to EDGE Montez Sweat in HC Matt Eberflus' defense.

Murphy has three-down ability and impressed at the combine with his athleticism (4.87-second 40-yard dash at 6’1” and 297 lbs.).

1.10 (Jets): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

With the offseason additions of LT Tyron Smith, LG John Simpson, and RT Morgan Moses, the Jets don't need to add another OL in Round 1.

Insead, they can draft a playmaker for QB Aaron Rodgers.

Odunze had an awesome combine, exhibiting good speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and notable agility (6.88-second three-cone drill) with old-school prototypical size (6’3” and 212 lbs.).

In a less-stacked class, Odunze would have a good chance to be the No. 1 WR: He’s in the same tier with Harrison and Nabers.

1.11 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

In reality, the Vikings might need to trade up for McCarthy. (Maybe they could get Nos. 8 or 9 from the Falcons or Bears?)

But in this mock they stay at No. 11, let the board come to them, and are rewarded with the guy they hope will be the long-term replacement to former QB Kirk Cousins.

With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6’2” and 219 lbs.), elite agility (6.82-second three-cone drill), and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has underappreciated upside.

1.12 (Broncos): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)

This is theoretically a potential draft spot for a QB, but (as I mentioned earlier) I don't view Bo Nix and Michael Penix as Round 1 QBs.

Plus, as wild as this sounds, the recent addition of QB Zach Wilson might make the Broncos less desperate to add a passer on Day 1: There's a non-zero chance HC Sean Payton believes he can turn Wilson into a viable starter.

So I'll give Turner to the Broncos, who are desperately thin at EDGE.

Turner's position-best athleticism (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 247 lbs.) makes him a desirable prospect with true playmaking potential.

1.13 (Raiders): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

Arnold disappointed at the combine (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6’ and 189 lbs.), but he can fall only so far down the board due to his ball production (five INTs in 2023), overall pedigree (first-team All-American at Alabama), and age (21 years old).

HC Antonio Pierce gets a potential No. 1 CB for his defense.

1.14 (Saints): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

LT Trevor Penning has disappointed, and RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee) is uncertain for the season with long-term injury concerns. Fashanu will be a Week 1 starter.

1.15 (Colts): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Bowers slides down the board because teams are concerned about positional value and his lack of athletic testing, and the Colts capitalize.

GM Chris Ballard adds a valuable weapon for QB Anthony Richardson.

1.16 (Seahawks): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

With his outside/inside flexibility, Fuaga should be a plug-and-play Week 1 NFL contributor. A natural fit on the right side, he has the strength to challenge RT Abraham Lucas for the starting role and the positional flexibility to kick inside if needed.

1.17 (Jaguars): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

Mitchell was a combine winner with his elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6’ and 195 lbs.), and he should immediately upgrade perimeter corner for the Jaguars.

1.18 (Bengals): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

A three-year starter, Fautanu was the top dog on the unit that won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, given annually to the top OL in college football.

The Bengals signed RT Trent Brown, but he’s on just a one-year deal. Fautanu could start his NFL career inside before eventually kicking out to the perimeter..

1.19 (Rams): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)

It’s hard to know what the Rams will do: They haven’t had a pick in Round 1 at any point under HC Sean McVay.

But the Rams could certainly use a DL playmaker after the retirement of DT Aaron Donald, and Verse exhibited outstanding athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6’4” and 254 lbs.) at the combine.

1.20 (Steelers): OL Graham Barton (Duke)

The Steelers released C Mason Cole in February, and the versatile Barton has overtaken C Jackson Powers-Johnson as the top iOL in the class.

1.21 (Dolphins): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Dolphins lost DT Christian Wilkins in free agency, and Newton (a 2023 first-team All-American) has the potential to step in as an immediate replacement.

1.22 (Eagles): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

A couple of years ago the Eagles drafted Cam Jurgens as the eventual successor to C Jason Kelce, and then they played him at RG until Kelce retired.

The Eagles could do the same thing with Mims in relation to RT Lane Johnson. The five-star Mims has massive upside but little experience: That feels like the kind of player the Eagles would draft, develop, and then place in his ultimate position.

1.23 (Vikings): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)

The Vikings need more defensive explosiveness, and Robinson flashed at the combine with his elite athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 254 lbs).

Pick via Browns and Texans.

1.24 (Cowboys): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

In adding Guyton, the Cowboys give themselves optionality. If they want to keep LG Tyler Smith on the inside, they can: With his elite size (6’8” and 322 lbs.), Guyton has a chance to be a franchise blindside protector.

If the Cowboys want to play Smith at LT, then Guyton can kick inside to LG.

And maybe he can even challenge RT Terence Steele for his starting job.

1.25 (Packers): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

DeJean can man up as an outside corner, but he also has the flexibility to play safety.

In placing DeJean alongside CBs Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon and SS Xavier McKinney, the Packers might have one of the league’s best on-paper secondaries.

1.26 (Buccaneers): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)

With Powers-Johnson (the 2023 Rimington Trophy winner and a unanimous first-team All-American), the Buccaneers find a strong replacement for retired C Ryan Jensen

1.27 (Cardinals): EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)

Robinson isn’t present in a supermajority of mocks, but he’s one of 13 prospects who will attend the draft in person, which gives him a good chance to go in Round 1.

The Cardinals need an infusion of perimeter DL talent given that their top EDGEs are Dennis Gardeck and Zaven Collins, and Robinson's size (6’5” and 285 pounds) gives him inside/outside versatility in HC Jonathan Gannon’s defense.

Pick via Texans.

1.28 (Bills): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)

The Bills lost WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis via trade and free agency this offseason: QB Josh Allen needs more help.

With his college production (68-1,177-17 receiving) and athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 209 lbs.), Thomas has long-term potential as a No. 1 WR.

The Bills are -280 (DraftKings) to select a WR with their first pick. (I bet them at +150.)

1.29 (Lions): CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

Even though the Lions have added CBs Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, both are on short-term deals, so the team would be wise to draft another corner.

McKinstry entered college as a five-star recruit, he started three years in the SEC, and he had 22 passes defended in his two final seasons.

With a strong pro day (he had a 4.47-second 40-yard dash despite running on a Jones fracture), McKinstry has pushed himself back into Round 1.

1.30 (Ravens): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)

Morgan's draft position prop is 32.5 juiced -175 to the under (DraftKings), so this is the right range for him.

The Ravens traded away RT Morgan Moses this offseason, and Morgan (who started 37 games at Arizona) has the potential to replace him right away.

If he doesn’t fit at RT, the Ravens can also kick Morgan inside given that they also lost LG John Simpson and RG Kevin Zeitler in free agency.

1.31 (49ers): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

Wiggins is small (6’1” and 173 lbs.) but was the fastest DB at the combine (4.28-second 40-yard dash). The 49ers need a perimeter corner.

1.32 (Chiefs): WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)

With his combine-record deep speed (4.21-second 40-yard dash), Worthy feels like a (hopefully much) better version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whom the team released this offseason.

If the Chiefs are lucky, Worthy will give them some of the same explosive downfield playmaking ability they had years ago with WR Tyreek Hill.

Even with the addition of WR Marquise Brown, the Chiefs could use one more perimeter receiver (I like Justin Watson, but the team could upgrade), and Brown is on just a one-year deal anyway.

Also, the current legal uncertainty surrounding slot WR Rashee Rice might make receiver more of a priority in the draft.

If Worthy is on the board at No. 32 and the Chiefs opt to select some defensive player instead, the internet might riot. They need to get a potential long-term No. 1 WR for QB Patrick Mahomes.

Mock-to-Mock Movement

Here are players I’ve moved into and out of Round 1 since the previous version.

Players Into Round 1: WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
Players Out of Round 1: WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

Borderline Prospects

These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

QBs Bo Nix (Oregon) & Michael Penix (Washington)
WRs Adonai Mitchell (Texas), Ladd McConkey (Georgia) & Xavier Legette (South Carolina)
OT Kingsley Suamataia (Brigham Young)
C Zach Frazier (West Virginia)