A Krafty Thanksgiving Day Prop Bet
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we have 3 key matchups for Week 13, prop bets for Tucker Kraft and Pavel Zacha, a Thanksgiving Cheatsheet, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Let’s talk matchups. Week 13 is ahead of us, which means we have about 70% of the season in the bag already. That means we have more data and, more importantly, more useful data with larger sample sizes for all teams.
One tool over on Fantasy Life I’ve relied on more heavily as the season has gotten deeper and deeper is our DvP Tool. It’s pretty simple as it provides us with which defenses have been the worst at guarding against certain positions.
However, as with with all things Fantasy Life, we tend to make simple tools great and that’s the same with the DvP Tool, where we provide extras like potential yardage boosts, target boosts, and fantasy points boosts you should expect from players in their specific matchups.
With that in mind, here are three player vs. defense matchups I like watching for Week 13, and how I may be betting them this coming Sunday.
Nico Collins vs. the Jaguars
2nd most FP per game allowed to opposing WRs
Projected 32.6 receiving-yard boost
Collins has now played in two games since coming back from a month-long injury. Last week he posted a 30% target share and a 5-92-1 line on 9 targets. He also had a long TD called back in his first game back vs. the Cowboys.
With the Texans coming off a poor outing vs. the Titans, we may see Collins and Stroud light up this secondary for three-plus quarters next week, making his alternate lines and anytime TD props something I’ll be very interested in when released.
Bryce Young vs. the Buccaneers
4th most FP per game allowed to opposing QBs
Projected 46.6 passing-yard boost
Young had his best game of the season vs. the Chiefs last week, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and throwing for 260 yards and 2 TDs.
This week, he has an even better matchup vs. the defense-optional Buccaneers. If Young has his great after-catch TE Ja’Tavion Sanders back—he was released from the hospital on Sunday after being examined for a neck injury—and the improving Jalen Coker, I’ll be looking to play his alternate passing lines up to 300+ yards in this spot at what should be juicy odds.
Tony Pollard vs. the Commanders
10th most FP per game to opposing RBs
Projected 33.7 rushing-yard boost
The Commanders have been sneaky bad vs. the run of late and even had trouble stopping the Cowboys’ putrid run game in Week 12, allowing Rico Dowdle to go for 86 yards on the ground and 4.5 YPC.
Pollard looked fully healthy again last week, taking 24 carries for 119 yards and a TD against Houston. His anytime TD odds and yardage props will be of great interest once they get released for Week 13.
Don’t forget, we also have weekly Player Projections and a Prop Finder Tool to help you navigate all of the NFL madness and gain an edge in Week 13.
Both are available (along with a host of other great tools) with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Thanksgiving Day Prop Drop: Time to Tucker and Run against the Dolphins?
- NHL Prop Drop: Bet on this Bruin to breakout vs. Vancouver
Week 13 NFL—Kraft in a smash spot on Thanksgiving
by Geoff Ulrich
The Bets:
Tucker Kraft over 30.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
Alternate lines 50+ receiving yards (+290; bet365); 60+ receiving yards (+475)
When you look at the Dolphins’ pass defense from a stat perspective it’s clear they are still a pretty tight unit. They’ve allowed just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season (6th best in the league) and are 12th in EPA per dropback.
They’ve also been great at locking down the big splash plays, allowing the third-fewest yards on the season to opposing WRs and only 5 TDs to the position overall (tied with Pittsburgh for fewest in the league).
However, as good as Miami has been against the deep ball, they can and have struggled against athletic TEs. As a group that tends to run a lot of Cover 3 on defense, they often leave the middle of the field open or exposed and have been vulnerable to big catch-and-run plays by efficient after-the-catch TEs.
In Week 11, I noticed this trend and took Brock Bowers’ over—and played some of his alternate lines as well—as his yardage lines were low, for him, to begin with. He destroyed Miami to the tune of 13 receptions for 126 yards and a TD, on 16 targets.
Fast forward to this week and we have the Dolphins facing another great after-the-catch receiver in Tucker Kraft, who recorded the fastest top speed of any TE in the open field this season (per Next Gen Stats).
As evidenced above, and by the fact he’s recorded 50+ yards in six of his last 16 regular-season games, Kraft is a great receiver when he gets the ball in his hands and is able to turn upfield. He’s tied for first in the league (yes first) with Jameson Williams at 9.9 YAC per reception and is fifth in the league in YAC over expected (xYAC/r).
Even better is the fact that he comes into this fantastic matchup off a couple of slow games, which has kept his yardage totals low in the prop department, and the odds on his alternate lines high.
You could argue that his recent usage is somewhat concerning, as he posted just a 6% target share vs. the Bears and a 9% target share vs. the 49ers. However, with Romeo Doubs (concussion) likely out vs. the Dolphins, the plan for Green Bay on offense this week should involve getting Kraft in space early and often and letting him cook vs. this Dolphins’ secondary.
I already entered Kraft’s over in our Free NFL Bet Tracker yesterday and would play the over on his standard line up to 32.5. However, this is also a great spot to play some of his alternate lines. He’s proven he’s a player who doesn’t need a ton of volume to get to 50+ yards in a game, having already accomplished that feat three times in 2024, and twice doing so on 4 or fewer catches.
I’ll also have more props up for Thanksgiving (and this Sunday) as lines get released, so if you need more bets (aka, distractions) for Thursday and beyond make sure to bookmark our bet tracker and keep refreshing as the week trundles on.
MORE NFL PLAYER PROPS FOR WEEK 13
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Is Bucky Irving a good bet to be an RB1 rest of season? Dwain’s incomparable Utilization Report helps you attack Week 13.
💰Ladd McConkey futures bettors have to be pleased. He now leads all rookies in receiving yards after Monday Night.
👑 The New York Rangers are looking at shaking things up. Moving on from Chris Kreider would certainly be a choice.
🏈 The NFL Thanksgiving Day Cheatsheet is here. All your DFS and early betting needs, in one place.
🤯 Bo Nix has closed the gap. Jayden Daniels’ massive lead in the OROY race has all but evaporated.
NHL Prop Drop—Zacha can get on the board vs. Vancouver
by Geoff Ulrich
Pavel Zacha has not had the best start to the season. He has 7 points through 22 games and is well off last year’s 0.75 ppg pace, which saw him nab a career-high 21 goals, along with 38 assists and 59 points.
The defensive-oriented Canucks typically wouldn’t be the best team to turn things around against, but I do think Boston’s offense may come to life on Tuesday. Vancouver has issues in net that have made them a great opponent for struggling offenses like the Predators (5.0 goals scored) and the Islanders (4.0 goals scored) of late.
Kevin Lankinen has seen his SV% plummet after a hot start and he’s allowed 19 goals (3.8 per game) over his last five appearances. Last year’s playoff hero Arturs Silovs has struggled all season with an .857 SV%.
As mentioned previously, Zacha is also struggling, but he’s still playing big minutes and centering a line with David Pastrnak, who remains one of the best RWs in the game.
Despite going pointless in five straight, Zacha has seen 20+ minutes of ice over each of his last two outings and has now produced nine shots on net over that span. He also continues to center the Bruins’ first-line power play, which isn’t in a terrible spot tonight either against a Canucks penalty-kill that has regressed to just 18th-best in the league in 2024-25.
The Bet: Pavel Zacha to score a point (+105; bet365)
Zacha plays massive minutes and is attached to an elite winger, so it’s unlikely his slump will last much longer. With his odds just to score a single point now on the bigger side of +100, this is a good opportunity to back a heavily utilized, and well-rounded player against a team that has been allowing a ton of soft goals of late.
Looking for more NHL action this season? Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds below.
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