Best Bets for NBA Finals Game 1: Target the Over in Celtics vs. Mavericks

And then there were two. We’re down to just the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks to battle it out for the NBA Finals. Before we dive into the best bets for NBA Finals Game 1, let's recap how we got to this point.

The Celtics were always expected to be here. They entered the year as the favorites, and they cruised through the regular season and Eastern Conference postseason to make it back to the Finals.

It’s their second trip to the Finals with their current core, but they’ve made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in six of the past eight seasons. This team has plenty of big-game experience, and this is undoubtedly their most talented roster. Could this be the year when they finally get over the hump?

Conversely, the Mavericks making it to the Finals is a bit of a shocker.

Acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline allowed this team to improve over the second half of the year, and with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving spearheading the offense, they were 18-9 after the All-Star break. They managed to knock off three powerhouses on their way to the Finals, but the Celtics will be their toughest test.

Can the Mavs pull off another upset, or will the Celtics hang banner No. 18 from the rafters? Let’s dive into some of my best bets for NBA Finals Game 1.

NBA Finals Game 1 Best Bets

Mavericks-Celtics Over 215.5 points (-110; DraftKings)

I’m ultimately a bit conflicted on this game when it comes to the spread. Boston has been a juggernaut this season, but they have struggled to cover the spread at home during the postseason. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been outstanding as underdogs, particularly in the second half.

The sharps seem to like the Celtics in this spot, while the public is grabbing the points with the Mavericks. I always prefer to be on the sharps’ side, but this feels like a game where Doncic and Irving can keep things close late. If this game is competitive in the fourth quarter, those guys have proven that they know how to get the job done.

Instead, let’s focus on the total for Game 1. Dallas has made big strides defensively, but they’re still just seventh during the postseason in defensive efficiency. They’re No. 6 in offensive efficiency, so they remain a team that does most of their damage on that end of the floor. That’s not a huge shock for a team that employs two of the best offensive players in basketball.

We know what the Celtics are capable of offensively. They set a new record for offensive efficiency during the regular season, and they’re No. 2 in that department during the postseason. They’re averaging nearly 120 points per 100 possessions, so they don’t mind getting into a track meet with Dallas.

Ultimately, this total feels a bit too low. The sharps seem to agree, pushing this number up from 214 at opening. It’s already risen to 216 at some locations, so it might get a little higher before tip-off.

Celtics -2.5 Games (+190; Caesars)

Here’s what I had to say about this bet in Wednesday’s Betting Life newsletter:

“If you don’t want to back the Celtics, I get it. This team has been to the Eastern Conference Finals in six of the past eight seasons, but they’ve yet to get over the hump. They’ve barely been tested this postseason, and they still haven’t looked all that impressive. They swept the Pacers, but most of that series was hotly contested.

Still — this isn’t the same Celtics’ squad.

They’re expected to get Kristaps Porzingis back in Game 1, and his impact cannot be understated. With Porzingis on the floor during the regular season and playoffs, the Celtics have outscored opponents by +11.3 points per 100 possessions. His return means fewer minutes for Al Horford and Sam Hauser, which makes this Celtics’ squad even stronger.

Their starting five gels perfectly. They’re all elite defensively, and they can all shoot the ball on offense. If you load up to stop Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown can take over. Whatever the Mavericks try to do to stop their offense, the Celtics will have the answer.

The Mavs have had a great run, but they’re simply not in Boston’s weight class. You could play the Celtics at -1.5 games (-110; Caesars), but I’m going with the more aggressive route. I think the most likely outcome is the Celtics in five games, so I’m playing the -2.5 games for the fourth straight series.

More Bets for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 1

Kristaps Porzingis Under 1.5 3-pointers (+135)

Porzingis is vital to the Celtics’ success in this series, but it’s clear he’s not going to be at 100%. He will likely be limited in his first game back, which makes taking the under on some of his props an appealing option.

Under 1.5 3-pointers at +135 stands out as particularly appealing. Porzingis averaged 1.9 made 3-pointers per game during the regular season, but he did that in around 30 minutes per contest. If he doesn’t get to 30 minutes, he’s going to need to be efficient to hit the over on this number.

Ultimately, I grade this prop as closer to a coin flip, and I’ll take a coin flip at +135 odds every day of the week.

Dereck Lively Over 8.5 points (+114)

The over on Lively’s scoring prop has literally been a license to print money this postseason. He’s gone for at least nine points in five of his past six games, and the lone exception was the game where he got injured. He played less than 10 minutes in that contest, so it’s hard to hold that against him.

Lively makes his money catching lobs and gobbling up offensive rebounds, and it’s tough to gameplan against that. As good as the Celtics are defensively, Lively’s effort should keep his production intact. This is another prop where I’m happy to roll the dice at better than even money.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

5/30: 2-1 (+0.475 units)
Futures: 9-3 (+1.41 units)
Playoffs: 50-44-1 (+2.02 units excluding futures)